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_2010_Special_Election.svg) County results Critz: 40–50% 50–60% Burns: 50–60% | ||||||||||||||||
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The2010 special election for the 12th congressional district of Pennsylvania was held on May 18, 2010, to fill theseat left vacant by the death ofDemocraticU.S. RepresentativeJohn Murtha. Democratic nomineeMark Critz, Murtha's former district director, defeatedRepublican nomineeTim Burns.[1] Both candidates were nominated at their respective primary election concurrent with the special election and faced off in the general election November 2010, with Critz again defeating Burns.
Though the late Representative, Murtha, the longest serving congressman in thehistory of Pennsylvania, was consistently re-elected to his seat by large margins, the special election was expected to be competitive.[2][3][4]
The 12th district is predominantly rural, and represents thecoal andmanufacturing industries, which have suffered in recent decades.[5] It was the onlycongressional district in the United States which gave a majority of its vote to Republican nomineeJohn McCain in2008 after voting for Democratic nomineeJohn Kerry in2004.[2] However, at the time of the election Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 2-to-1ratio in the 12th district.[6] A poll conducted byPublic Policy Polling (PPP) in May 2010 found President Obama with anapproval rating of 35 percent, with 55 percent disapproving.[7] A PPP poll conducted in April foundSpeaker of the House of RepresentativesNancy Pelosi,U.S. SenatorArlen Specter, andPennsylvania GovernorEd Rendell (all Democrats) to be "exceptionally unpopular", though 55 percent of the district identify as members of the Democratic Party.[8]
The special election result was considered likely to have ramifications on the national political environment, as an opportunity for Republicans to follow up their victory in theU.S. Senate special election in Massachusetts in January 2010[9] in a district of the sort they intend to target in theNovember 2010 elections.[10] National issues, includinghealth care,government spending,cap-and-trade legislation and the role ofgovernment.[10][11] Republican nominee Tim Burns described the election as "a referendum on the Obama-[Nancy] Pelosi agenda,"[12] whileThe Washington Post'sChris Cillizza said "the race is simply a must-win" for Republicans,[13] andpolitical scientistTom Schaller ofFiveThirtyEight wrote that the district "is precisely the sort of district Republicans have in their sights for 2010".[14] TheDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee described the district as "exactly the type of district that House Republicans need to win this cycle."[15] Critz downplayed the national consequences of the election, saying "I can't really concern myself with national issues. I'm concentrating on my race here. I'm just a local guy that's running for a seat."[16]
On election day,CQ Politics,[17]The Rothenberg Political Report,[18]The Cook Political Report,[19] and Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling[8] all characterized the race as atossup.
On March 6, 2010, a panel of Democratic officials from the 12th district recommended Mark Critz as their preferred Democratic nominee. Critz received 46 of 83 votes cast, while Barbara Hafer received 22, Ed Cernic Jr. received 14, and Ryan Bucchianeri received one vote. ThePennsylvania Democratic Party's Executive Committee will make the final decision on their party's nominee on March 8;[33][34] however, they are expected to follow the non-binding recommendation of Critz made by local officials.T.J. Rooney, chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said "The members of the Executive Committee will certainly take these results under consideration this Monday when they decide our nominee."[35] On March 6, the Democratic committee ofWashington County declared that it would hold its own separate straw poll.[36]
In early March, Hafer criticized the nominating process used by the state Democratic Party, describing the vote by 12th district Democrats as "flawed and non-transparent and non-democratic".[37] She also criticized Critz over his ties to controversialearmarks obtained by Murtha, and questioned Critz's electability against the Republican nominee.[35][37] In response to Hafer's allegations, Critz asked the Office of Congressional Ethics on March 10 to release transcripts of interviews with Critz which were conducted while Murtha was under investigation.[38]
Bucchianeri andU.S. Air Forceveteran Ron Mackell Jr. ran for the Democratic nomination for the general election;[39][40] it was therefore possible that Critz could win the special election but lose the primary for the November general election.[41] Hafer had initially planned to run for the Democratic nomination in the general election, but withdrew on March 10, 2010, saying "He won both nominations, and I just think that it's time for me to step aside and let him go forward. There's no sense in me beating him up."[39]
On March 8, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party Executive Committee followed the recommendation of the district officials by nominatingMark Critz.[5] Of the 49 votes cast by the Committee members, Critz received 30, Hafer received 18, Bucchianeri received one and Cernic received zero.[42] Critz said "I'm honored to have the state committee's endorsement," while Rooney described Critz as "a phenomenal candidate".[42]
Businessman Tim Burns began his campaign for the Republican nomination on March 3 at the Surf & Turf Inn inJohnstown, the site of his first job. Burns said "We have to get Congress to focus on creating jobs, lowering taxes and fixing Washington for the future of our children."[46]
Republicans from the 12th district met on March 11, 2010, inLatrobe, to choose their nominee.[28][42] Tim Burns was nominated, receiving 85 of 131 votes cast. William Russell received 46.[47] In a speech prior to the nomination vote, Burns referred to his support for theTea Party movement, articulated his positions on the current plans forhealth care reform,United States energy independence and the nationaldeficit,[47] and described his nomination as "an opportunity to put a common-sense conservative in a seat that has long been held by a political insider".[47] Russell said that "The party doesn't want a candidate that's connected to the people, they want one with money. While unfortunate, this is what we expected."[47]
Demo Agoris, a businessman, formerHouston borough councilman and unsuccessful candidate for thePennsylvania House of Representatives, received theLibertarian Party nomination. Michael Robertson, the chair of theLibertarian Party of Pennsylvania, said Agoris "offers real change" for residents of the 12th district. Agoris has said he is running "To bring to light theagenda of the Libertarian Party and how theleft and right agenda is destroying America and selling out America to foreign investors."[48]
The fact that the special election coincided with contested Democraticgubernatorial andU.S. Senate primaries may have led to increasedvoter turnout among Democrats, benefiting Critz;[8][41][49][50] however, Jack Hanna, the chair of thePennsylvania Democratic Party's southwestern caucus, said "There's going to be a lackluster turnout in part because of the governor's race not generating the kind of interest that usually occurs, especially with anopen seat."[51] The special election coinciding with the primary also meant that Critz and Burns were running against one another, while also running against opponents from within their own parties in the regularly scheduled primary.[41][50][52] On March 19, 2010, Republican candidate William Russell, who lost the Republican nomination to Burns and also ran against Burns in the regularly scheduled primary, stated that he would not directly support Burns as a protest against the process by which Burns was selected, saying "I won't support a process that is not open and free." Russell also said he would vote for himself as awrite-in candidate in the special election.[53] Burns'scampaign manager said that Burns would focus on the special election rather than the simultaneous primary, saying "If we can get enough support going in the special then we'll have the primary too."[54] The candidacy ofLibertarian Party nominee Demo Agoris may also have detracted from Burns's share of the vote.[55]
In March 2010,Robert Gleason, chair of theRepublican State Committee of Pennsylvania, described a Republican victory as "doable".[56]
Burns announced his opposition to thePatient Protection and Affordable Care Act at a "Kill the Bill Rally" on March 19, describing the bill as "probably the worst piece of legislation in American history". He went on to tell the crowd that he had asked Critz to "simply state his position" on the bill, but had not yet seen a statement from Critz.[57]
On March 30, Critz received the endorsement of thePennsylvania AFL-CIO.[58] The next day, Burns received the endorsement ofMinnesota GovernorTim Pawlenty.[59] FormerSpeaker of the HouseNewt Gingrich campaigned for Burns on April 22,[60] whileVice PresidentJoe Biden campaigned for Critz on April 23.[61] On April 26, Burns received the endorsement of formerGovernor of Alaska and2008 vice presidential candidateSarah Palin;[62] while on April 28, Critz received the endorsement of theUnited Steelworkers.[63] On May 3, 2010, Burns announced that RepublicanU.S. SenatorScott Brown ofMassachusetts would campaign with him inWashington, Pennsylvania on May 14.[64] The same day, Critz announced that DemocraticGovernorJoe Manchin ofWest Virginia would join him at a campaign event.[64] MusicianJon Bauman ofdoo-wop groupSha Na Na also campaigned for Critz in May.[65]
Burns' first television advertisement began airing on March 31,[66] while Critz's first advertisement was launched a day later.[67] On April 9, theNational Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported having spent $200,000 on Burns's campaign.[68] Critz's campaign also ran advertisements stating his opposition to "tax breaks for companies thatoutsource jobs overseas",[69] while Burns criticized Critz's relationship with Murtha's ethics scandals.[69] The NRCC also launched an advertisement linking Critz to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act;[70] to which Critz responded by releasing an advertisement stating he had opposed the legislation. Critz also described himself in the advertisement as "pro-life andpro-gun."[71] Critz later said he would not supportrepeal of the legislation, following which Burns accused him of "playing both sides of the issue" on health care.[72]
Burns was criticised for having served as anexecutive in a healthcare company whichdeferred taxes on income earned overseas.[73] Critz was criticised for his record as John Murtha's director of economic development, in whichunemployment rates rose in every county within the 12th district.[74]
In an interview withRealClearPolitics on April 22, Burns referenced acontroversial comment made by then-presidential candidateBarack Obama in April 2008, in which Obama said people in rural Pennsylvania "get bitter, they cling to guns or religion … as a way to explain their frustrations."[75] Burns said "People do cling to their Bibles and their guns here. And I wouldn't apologize for it and people are not embarrassed by it."[76]
Burns's campaign websitecrashed on April 23, during amoneybomb focusing on Joe Biden's visit to the district.[77] Spokesman Kent Gates initially cited "a problem with the hosting company",[77] but the Burns campaign later claimed in a fundraising email that the site was "attacked".[78] Gates toldThe Hill ""it is true that the site washacked at some level" and that a "disgruntled employee" may have been responsible.[78]
As of May 7, 2010, Burns had a cash on hand advantage over Critz, withUS$308,000 to Critz's $73,000. The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent $728,000 on Burns' behalf, while theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $341,000 in support of Critz.[79]
Burns and Critz attended a debate held on May 5, 2010, inJohnstown, Pennsylvania.[80] The candidates addressed issues includingSocial Security privatization (which Burns promised to oppose), theFairTax proposal (which Burns said would not be practical), and Critz's relationship with the "liberalagenda" (Critz reiterated his opposition to the health care reform legislation passed by Congress, while Burns advocated repeal).[80] Critz also endorsed the repeal of thedon't ask, don't tell policy.[81]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Critz (D) | Tim Burns (R) | Demo Agoris (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | May 15–16, 2010 | 831 | ±3.4% | 47% | 48% | – | – | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (report) | May 10, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 44% | 38% | – | – | – |
| Anzalone Liszt1 (report) | April 27–29, 2010 | 406 | ? | 43% | 41% | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group2 (report[permanent dead link]) | April 27–29, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 45% | 37% | – | – | – |
| 44% | 36% | 2% | – | – | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (report) | April 17–18, 2010 | 1,197 | ±2.8% | 41% | 44% | – | – | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates3 (report) | April 15, 2010 | 300 | ±5.6% | 40% | 39% | – | – | 21% |
| We Ask America (report) | March 15, 2010 | 1,365 | ±2.65% | 38.83% | 34.73% | – | – | 26.45% |
| Gene Ulm, Public Opinion Strategies4 (report) | March 14–15, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 41% | 45% | – | – | 13% |
| Pittsburgh Tribune-Review/ Susquehanna Polling & Research (report) | March 14–15, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 36% | 31% | – | 2% | 31% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Critz | 70,915 | 52.6 | |
| Republican | Tim Burns | 60,740 | 45.1 | |
| Libertarian | Demo Agoris | 3,158 | 2.3 | |
| Total votes | 134,813 | 100.00 | ||
| Democratichold | ||||
By county[82]
| County | Critz | % | Burns | % | Agoris | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny | 519 | 57.6% | 359 | 39.9% | 23 | 2.6% |
| Armstrong | 3,392 | 41.9% | 4,454 | 55.0% | 246 | 3.0% |
| Cambria | 19,216 | 57.2% | 13,864 | 41.3% | 500 | 1.5% |
| Fayette | 11,176 | 59.2% | 7,352 | 39.0% | 343 | 1.8% |
| Greene | 5,164 | 56.7% | 3,716 | 40.8% | 224 | 2.5% |
| Indiana | 1,540 | 42.5% | 1,990 | 54.9% | 93 | 2.6% |
| Somerset | 4,269 | 48.3% | 4,430 | 50.1% | 144 | 1.6% |
| Washington | 10,485 | 49.7% | 9,715 | 46.0% | 914 | 4.3% |
| Westmoreland | 15,154 | 49.4% | 14,860 | 48.4% | 671 | 2.2% |
On election day, Critz prevailed over Burns by a greater than expected margin[83] of 52.6 percent to Burns's 45.1 percent.[82] Critz's election was the eleventh straight Democratic victory inspecial elections to the House of Representatives.[83]
Burns, in his concession speech, said "I didn't get in this race to win an election, I got in this race to play my small part in helping to save this country. This isn't a loss – this is a setback."[84]
The Pennsylvania Republican Party and Burns's campaign planned to file a complaint in response to allegations that Critz was campaigning inside polling places on election day, and that "about 170" voters inFayette County were given two ballot papers for the special election.[85]
Michael Steele, chair of theRepublican National Committee issued a statement saying Burns had "pushed his Democratic opponent to the wire by campaigning against the liberal agenda of national Democrats … This race should serve notice to Democratic officeholders everywhere that no seat is safe and that voters will not accept business-as-usual."[86] Former Republican U.S. RepresentativeTom Davis, however, asked "If you can't win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?"[87]
Stuart Rothenberg of the non-partisan Rothenberg political report, however, has stated that even though Democrats were able to win a competitive race to hold on to Murtha's former seat, "But the road doesn't necessarily get easier for Democrats. Critz was pro-life, pro-gun, and opposed the health care reform bill that many vulnerable Democratic incumbents supported." Rothenberg still predicts that Republicans will make substantial gains,[88] which suggests that this could be apyrrhic victory for Democrats comparable to the Republican win in2006 special House election in California's 50th congressional district in which the ruling party managed to hold onto a district in a special election, but stilllost control of Congress months later.
Critz and Burns each received their parties' nomination for the regularly scheduled general election for the seat and faced each other again in November 2010 for a full two-year term, with Critz beating Burns for a second time.[1]
Debates
Official candidate sites
