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2008 United States presidential election in South Dakota

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in South Dakota

← 2004November 4, 20082012 →
 
NomineeJohn McCainBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateArizonaIllinois
Running mateSarah PalinJoe Biden
Electoral vote30
Popular vote203,054170,924
Percentage53.16%44.75%

County Results

McCain

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in South Dakota
Mayoral elections
Mayoral elections

The2008 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

South Dakota was won by Republican nomineeJohn McCain by an 8.4 point margin of victory. Prior to the election, 16 of 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as ared state. Like the other states located in theGreat Plains region, South Dakota is a predominantlyrural and sparsely populated state withconservative voting tendencies which favors the Republicans, who dominate elections at the state and federal level. Although South Dakota stayed in the GOP column in 2008 as RepublicanJohn McCain carried the state with 53.16% of the popular vote, Obama greatly improved uponJohn Kerry's performance fromfour years earlier. As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last time a Democrat won more than 40% of the vote in South Dakota, the closest a Democrat has been to winning the state since1996, the last time the victory margin was within single digits and the last time in whichBrown County,Lake County,Miner County,Minnehaha County,Moody County, andBrookings County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.[1]. This was also the last election in which South Dakota was regarded a swing state by some outlets.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[2]Likely R
Cook Political Report[3]Toss-up
The Takeaway[4]Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[5]Lean R
Washington Post[6]Lean R
Politico[7]Solid R
RealClearPolitics[8]Lean R
FiveThirtyEight[6]Solid R
CQ Politics[9]Safe R
The New York Times[10]Solid R
CNN[11]Safe R
NPR[6]Solid R
MSNBC[6]Lean R
Fox News[12]Likely R
Associated Press[13]Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[14]Safe R

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: South Dakota

McCain won two pre-election polls, and never polled less than 47%. The highest Obama ever polled was 50%; the final poll showed McCain leading 50% to 42%.[15]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $287,533 in the state. Barack Obama raised $337,053.

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama and his interest groups spent $639,435. McCain and his interest groups spent just $1,531.[16] Obama did not visit the state, while McCain visited once, going toSturgis.[17]

Analysis

[edit]

South Dakota, a predominantly Republican state, has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee sinceLyndon B. Johnson won the state in the landslide election of1964. A sparsely populated state whose population largely tends towards arural andconservative lifestyle, the state has been won by the Republicans in every election since then, usually by wide margins.

McCain was able to keep South Dakota in the GOP column in 2008, taking in 53.16% of the total statewide vote over Obama who received 44.75%, an 8.41-percent margin of victory. This margin of victory was considerably smaller compared to 2004 whenGeorge W. Bush carried South Dakota with 59.91% of the vote overJohn Kerry who received 38.44%, a 21.47% margin of victory, resulting in a 13.06% swing to the Democrats in 2008.

While McCain did well throughout the state, his main strength was in Western South Dakota, where he often won by landslide margins.[18] He was able to carryPennington County, which contains the state's second largest city ofRapid City. In contrast, Obama ran best in Eastern South Dakota, losing most counties by fairly close margins. He also did well amongNative Americans; in Western South Dakota, the only counties Obama won were majority Native American.

Obama was able to substantially improve upon John Kerry's showing in South Dakota in 2004 by a number of factors. First, it helped that South Dakota received media attention during the course of the 2008 Democratic Primary, being the last state to vote in the historic and contentious primary that gaveHillary Rodham Clinton an 11-point victory over Obama; it was Clinton's last victory in the primary. In the general election, Obama was able to cut the margin significantly by narrowly carryingMinnehaha County, which contains the state's largest city ofSioux Falls. He was also able to winBrown County, which containsAberdeen, as well asBrookings County which containsBrookings, home ofSouth Dakota State University. He did much better than Kerry in Eastern South Dakota, which is where most of the people live, but McCain's margins throughout the state were too large to overcome.

During the same election, incumbent DemocraticU.S. SenatorTim Johnson wassoundly reelected over RepublicanState Senator Jim Dykstra, receiving 62.49% of the vote to Dykstra's 37.51%. At the state level, Democrats made gains in theSouth Dakota Legislature, picking up four seats in theSouth Dakota House of Representatives.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in South Dakota
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin203,05453.16%3
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden170,92444.75%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez4,2671.12%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle1,8950.50%0
IndependentBob BarrWayne Allyn Root1,8350.48%0
Totals381,975100.00%3
Voter turnout (Voting age population)64.7%

By county

[edit]
County[19]John McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Ralph Nader
Independent
Charles Baldwin
Constitution
Bob Barr
Independent
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Aurora79453.11%65543.81%271.81%50.33%140.94%1399.30%1,495
Beadle4,05452.55%3,49345.28%841.09%390.51%440.57%5617.27%7,714
Bennett61450.83%55746.11%191.57%110.91%70.58%574.72%1,208
Bon Homme1,71253.92%1,36743.06%591.86%210.66%160.50%34510.86%3,175
Brookings6,43146.12%7,20751.68%1561.12%680.49%830.60%-776-5.56%13,945
Brown8,06746.29%9,04151.88%1730.99%720.41%730.42%-974-5.59%17,426
Brule1,40757.69%96539.57%331.35%160.66%180.74%44218.12%2,439
Buffalo15625.20%45473.34%71.13%10.16%10.16%-298-48.14%619
Butte2,82166.28%1,30630.69%511.20%451.06%330.78%1,51535.59%4,256
Campbell59169.20%24328.45%101.17%80.94%20.23%34840.75%854
Charles Mix2,10953.02%1,80745.42%411.03%80.20%130.33%3027.60%3,978
Clark1,06554.90%83042.78%201.03%100.52%150.77%23512.12%1,940
Clay2,29636.78%3,80861.01%831.33%190.30%360.58%-1,512-24.23%6,242
Codington6,37452.31%5,59545.92%1090.89%480.39%590.48%7796.39%12,185
Corson53538.05%83759.53%161.14%90.64%90.64%-302-21.48%1,406
Custer2,90964.54%1,47532.73%571.26%440.98%220.49%1,43431.81%4,507
Davison4,73155.96%3,55442.03%901.06%410.48%390.46%1,17713.93%8,455
Day1,37242.81%1,78555.69%270.84%110.34%100.31%-413-12.88%3,205
Deuel1,08849.05%1,05447.52%401.80%231.04%130.59%341.53%2,218
Dewey65932.64%1,32865.78%140.69%130.64%50.25%-669-33.14%2,019
Douglas1,29373.63%42424.15%211.20%90.51%90.51%86949.48%1,756
Edmunds1,21358.43%81939.45%231.11%120.58%90.43%39418.98%2,076
Fall River2,34861.64%1,33835.13%541.42%431.13%260.68%1,01026.51%3,809
Faulk73962.00%42635.74%181.51%50.42%40.34%31326.26%1,192
Grant1,95150.94%1,78646.63%561.46%160.42%210.55%1654.31%3,830
Gregory1,42363.33%77134.31%291.29%110.49%130.58%65229.02%2,247
Haakon93981.44%18716.22%121.04%80.69%70.61%75265.22%1,153
Hamlin1,66159.60%1,04337.42%501.79%220.79%110.39%61822.18%2,787
Hand1,24762.01%71835.70%301.49%80.40%80.40%52926.31%2,011
Hanson1,42658.66%96139.53%170.70%160.66%110.45%46519.13%2,431
Harding57578.34%13518.39%121.63%70.95%50.68%44059.95%734
Hughes5,29862.56%3,03735.86%820.97%200.24%310.37%2,26126.70%8,468
Hutchinson2,28563.33%1,24234.42%471.30%210.58%130.36%1,04328.91%3,608
Hyde54769.68%22628.79%91.15%10.13%20.25%32140.89%785
Jackson66858.96%43538.39%151.32%90.79%60.53%23320.57%1,133
Jerauld54649.41%54249.05%131.18%40.36%00.00%40.36%1,105
Jones46373.84%14723.44%91.44%10.16%71.12%31650.40%627
Kingsbury1,43551.54%1,27745.87%451.62%100.36%170.61%1585.67%2,784
Lake2,99348.61%3,03349.26%811.32%250.41%250.41%-40-0.65%6,157
Lawrence6,78756.30%4,93240.91%1791.48%720.60%850.71%1,85515.39%12,055
Lincoln11,80356.84%8,64241.61%1660.80%640.31%920.44%3,16115.23%20,767
Lyman89454.48%71043.27%181.10%120.73%70.43%18411.21%1,641
Marshall90041.08%1,26157.55%140.64%60.27%100.46%-361-16.47%2,191
McCook1,64655.89%1,21941.39%401.36%260.88%140.48%42714.50%2,945
McPherson91566.55%44132.07%110.80%50.36%30.22%47434.48%1,375
Meade7,51564.75%3,75132.32%1411.21%1191.03%800.69%3,76432.43%11,606
Mellette44552.79%37344.25%141.66%80.95%30.36%728.54%843
Miner57747.37%60549.67%201.64%110.90%50.41%-28-2.30%1,218
Minnehaha39,25148.73%39,83849.46%7540.94%3810.47%3280.41%-587-0.73%80,552
Moody1,50846.34%1,66351.11%511.57%120.37%200.61%-155-4.77%3,254
Pennington27,60359.64%17,80238.47%4931.07%1620.35%2200.48%9,80121.17%46,280
Perkins1,10265.36%49929.60%301.78%382.25%171.01%60335.76%1,686
Potter93765.07%48233.47%60.42%130.90%20.14%45531.60%1,440
Roberts1,78139.26%2,67258.91%521.15%160.35%150.33%-891-19.65%4,536
Sanborn66955.43%50041.43%262.15%70.58%50.41%16914.00%1,207
Shannon3319.88%2,97188.69%361.07%80.24%40.12%-2,640-78.81%3,350
Spink1,66050.78%1,55047.42%300.92%130.40%160.49%1103.36%3,269
Stanley1,01765.49%51032.84%130.84%50.32%80.52%50732.65%1,553
Sully58169.75%23327.97%101.20%70.84%20.24%34841.78%833
Todd57120.19%2,20878.08%210.74%170.60%110.39%-1,637-57.89%2,828
Tripp1,85965.48%91432.19%301.06%200.70%160.56%94533.29%2,839
Turner2,53858.32%1,68138.63%861.98%310.71%160.37%85719.69%4,352
Union4,31055.97%3,24442.12%811.05%240.31%420.55%1,06613.85%7,701
Walworth1,66862.94%92334.83%301.13%200.75%90.34%74528.11%2,650
Yankton5,03949.72%4,83847.74%1671.65%340.34%560.55%2011.98%10,134
Ziebach31235.02%55462.18%91.01%80.90%80.90%-242-27.16%891
Totals203,05453.16%170,92444.75%4,2671.12%1,8950.50%1,8350.48%32,1308.41%381,975
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

South Dakota has only one congressional district because of its small population compared to other states. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is equivalent to the statewide election results.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
At-large53.2%44.8%Stephanie Herseth Sandlin

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of South Dakota cast their ballots forelectors, representatives to theElectoral College. The state is allocated three electors because it has onecongressional district and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of three electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and the candidate'srunning mate. In the state'sFirst Past the Post (plurality voting) system, the winner of a plurality of votes in the state is awarded all three electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitals.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin:[21]

  1. Mike Rounds
  2. Dennis Daugaard
  3. Larry Long

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Sullivan, Robert David;‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’;America Magazine inThe National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^"D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived fromthe original on January 1, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  3. ^"Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2015. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  4. ^"Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived fromthe original on April 22, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  5. ^"Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".electoral-vote.com. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  6. ^abcdBased on Takeaway
  7. ^"POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".www.politico.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  8. ^"RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived fromthe original on June 5, 2008.
  9. ^"CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2009. RetrievedDecember 20, 2009.
  10. ^Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008)."The Electoral Map: Key States".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  11. ^"October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived fromthe original on June 19, 2010. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  12. ^"Winning The Electoral College".Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ^"roadto270".hosted.ap.org. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  14. ^"Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".www.rasmussenreports.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  15. ^[1]Archived November 28, 2008, at theWayback Machine
  16. ^"Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  17. ^"Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  18. ^"Election Results 2008".New York Times. Archived fromthe original on November 3, 2004. RetrievedMay 17, 2009.
  19. ^Our Campaigns;SD US Presidential Election Race, November 04, 2008
  20. ^"Electoral College".California Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on October 30, 2008. RetrievedNovember 1, 2008.
  21. ^"U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. RetrievedMay 4, 2015.
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