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2008 United States Senate election in Montana

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2008 United States Senate election in Montana

← 2002November 4, 20082014 →
 
NomineeMax BaucusBob Kelleher
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote348,289129,369
Percentage72.92%27.08%

County results
Baucus:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Max Baucus
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Max Baucus
Democratic

Elections in Montana
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
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U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

The2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent SenatorMax Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despiteRepublicanJohn McCain's narrow victory in the state in theconcurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014, after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. Ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.

Background

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Montana generally gives its presidential electors toRepublican candidates, but historically has elected several prominentDemocrats to theUnited States Senate, includingThomas Walsh,Burton K. Wheeler,Mike Mansfield, andLee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served asU.S. Senator from Montana,Zales Ecton andConrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic GovernorBrian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. Inthe 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives inMontana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans. In2006 the Democratic candidate for the United States SenateJon Tester managed to defeat incumbent Republican SenatorConrad Burns and flip the seat into the Democratic column.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMax Baucus (incumbent)165,050100.00%
Total votes165,050100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Kirk Bushman, businessman
  • Bob Kelleher, attorney andperennial candidate
  • Michael Lange, State Representative
  • Patty Lovaas, accountant
  • Anton Pearson, rancher
  • Garnett Shay, engineer

Campaign

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All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign.[2]

Results

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Republican primary results[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBob Kelleher26,93636.32%
RepublicanMichael Lange17,04422.98%
RepublicanKirk Bushman15,50720.91%
RepublicanPatty Lovaas7,63210.29%
RepublicanAnton Pearson4,2575.74%
RepublicanGarnett Shay2,7883.76%
Total votes74,164100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney andperennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher waspro-life, advocated aparliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and asingle-payer health care system.[3] He received no support from the Montana Republican Party.[4]

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5]Safe DOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics[6]Safe DOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[7]Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[8]Safe DNovember 4, 2008

Polling

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Poll SourceDates administeredMax
Baucus (D)
Bob
Kelleher (R)
Rasmussen Reports[9]September 7, 200864%31%
Public Policy Polling[10]November 2, 200871%26%

Results

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General election results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticMax Baucus (incumbent)348,28972.92%+10.18%
RepublicanBob Kelleher129,36927.08%−4.65%
Total votes477,658100.00%N/A
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^abBrown, Bob (June 4, 2002)."2002 Statewide Primary Canvass"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on January 11, 2011. RetrievedApril 22, 2011.
  2. ^Gouras, Matt (March 26, 2008)."Recors Show Baucus Challenger has Outstanding Warrant in Indiana".Flathead Beacon.Archived from the original on July 26, 2011. RetrievedJune 13, 2010.
  3. ^McKee, Jennifer (June 5, 2008)."16th time a charm for veteran candidate".Archived from the original on September 18, 2008. RetrievedJuly 2, 2008.
  4. ^Johnson, Chuck."Frequent candidate Kelleher dies at 88".Archived from the original on June 4, 2011. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2012.
  5. ^"2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008".The Cook Political Report.Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. RetrievedApril 1, 2021.
  6. ^"Race Ratings Chart: Senate".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2010. RetrievedApril 16, 2023.
  7. ^"2008 Senate ratings".Inside Elections.Archived from the original on June 25, 2021. RetrievedApril 1, 2021.
  8. ^"2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics.Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. RetrievedAugust 31, 2021.
  9. ^Rasmussen Reports
  10. ^Public Policy Polling
  11. ^"Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".Archived from the original on June 29, 2011. RetrievedApril 22, 2011.

External links

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