Movatterモバイル変換


[0]ホーム

URL:


Jump to content
WikipediaThe Free Encyclopedia
Search

2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Predictions for select races in the 2006 U.S. House elections

2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

← 2004
2008 →

The2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435congressional districts across each of the 50U.S. states.Non-voting delegates from theDistrict of Columbia and three of the four inhabitedU.S. territories were also elected. Theseelections took place halfway through the second term of Republican PresidentGeorge W. Bush. The winners served in the110th United States Congress, with seatsapportioned among the states based on the2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the2006 elections.

Summary of analyses

[edit]

Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" — the race was not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" — the race was not competitive, but might become competitive if new political factors intervened.
"Leans" — the race was competitive, but one candidate had a clear advantage.
"Tossup" — neither candidate had a clear advantage.

SourceSafe DemocraticDemocratic FavoredLeans DemocraticTossupLeans RepublicanRepublican FavoredSafe Republican
CQPolitics.com
as of Nov 6
182 Democratic Seats 16 Democratic seats
1 Republican seat
5 Democratic seats
9 Republican seats
23 Republican seats 20 Republican seats 22 Republican seats 157 Republican seats
Cook Political Report
as of Nov 6
182 Democratic Seats 13 Democratic seats 6 Democratic seats
5 Republican seats
1 Democratic seat
38 Republican seats
12 Republican seats 13 Republican seats 165 Republican seats
Larry Sabato'sCrystal Ball
as of Nov 6
( and show trends)
193 Democratic seats6 Democratic seats
1

3 Republican seats
4 Democratic seats
1
26 Republican seats
5
(none)31 Republican seats
10 - 3→
10 Republican seats162 Republican seats
Majority Watch (final)
as of Oct 30
198 seats24 seats18 seats2 seats10 seats6 seats177 seats
Rothenberg Political Report
( and show trends)
as of Nov. 6
197 Democratic seats1 Democratic seat
3 Republican seats
1 Democratic seats
6 Republican seats
3 Democratic seats
←3
37 Republican seats
810→
3 Republican seats8 Republican seats166 Republican seats
Electoral-vote.com
as of Nov. 6
203 Democratic seats
36 Republican seats
1 Republican seat 195 Republican seats
Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls
as of Nov. 6
227 seats4 seats204 seats

Election ratings

[edit]

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.

DistrictCPVIIncumbentPrevious
result
Cook
November 6, 2006[1]
Rothenberg
November 6, 2006[2]
Sabato
November 6, 2006[3]
RCP
November 6, 2006[4]
CQ Politics
November 7, 2006[5]
Winner
Arizona 1R+2Rick Renzi (R)58.6% RTossupTilt RTilt RLean RTossupRick Renzi (R)
Arizona 5R+4J. D. Hayworth (R)59.5% RTossupTilt D(flip)Tilt D(flip)TossupTossupHarry Mitchell (D)
Arizona 8R+1Jim Kolbe (R)(retiring)60.4% RLean D(flip)Likely D(flip)Likely D(flip)Lean D(flip)Likely D(flip)Gabby Giffords (D)
California 4R+11John Doolittle (R)65.4% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RLean RJohn Doolittle (R)
California 11R+3Richard Pombo (R)61.3% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)TossupLean RJerry McNerney (D)
California 50R+5Brian Bilbray (R)49.3% RLean RLikely RLean RSafe RLean RBrian Bilbray (R)
Colorado 3R+6John Salazar (D)50.5% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DJohn Salazar (D)
Colorado 4R+9Marilyn Musgrave (R)51.0% RTossupTilt RTilt D(flip)Lean RLean RMarilyn Musgrave (R)
Colorado 5R+16Joel Hefley (R)(retiring)70.6% RLean RLikely RLean RSafe RLikely RDoug Lamborn (R)
Colorado 6R+10Tom Tancredo (R)59.7% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSafe RTom Tancredo (R)
Colorado 7D+2Bob Beauprez (R)(retiring)[a]54.7% RLean D(flip)Likely D(flip)Likely D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 2D+8Rob Simmons (R)54.2% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)Lean RLean RJoe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 4D+5Chris Shays (R)52.4% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)TossupTossupChris Shays (R)
Connecticut 5D+4Nancy Johnson (R)59.8% RTossupTilt D(flip)Tilt D(flip)TossupTossupChris Murphy (D)
Florida 8R+3Ric Keller (R)60.5% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RRic Keller (R)
Florida 9R+4Michael Bilirakis (R)100% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RGus Bilirakis (R)
Florida 13R+4Katherine Harris (R)(retiring)[b]55.3% RTossupTilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupTossupVern Buchanan (R)
Florida 16R+2Vacant[c]68.0% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Tim Mahoney (D)
Florida 22D+4Clay Shaw (R)62.9% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)Lean RTossupRon Klein (D)
Georgia 8R+8Jim Marshall (D)62.9% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupLean DJim Marshall (D)
Georgia 12D+2John Barrow (D)51.8% DLikely DTilt DTilt DTossupLean DJohn Barrow (D)
Idaho 1R+19Butch Otter (R)(retiring)[a]69.5% RTossupTilt RTilt D(flip)Lean RLean RBill Sali (R)
Illinois 6R+3Henry Hyde (R)(retiring)55.8% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)TossupTossupPeter Roskam (R)
Illinois 8R+5Melissa Bean (D)51.7% DLean DTilt DLean DLean DLean DMelissa Bean (D)
Illinois 10D+4Mark Kirk (R)64.1% RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe RLikely RMark Kirk (R)
Illinois 17D+5Lane Evans (D)(retiring)60.7% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DPhil Hare (D)
Indiana 2R+4Chris Chocola (R)54.2% RTossupLean D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupTossupJoe Donnelly (D)
Indiana 3R+16Mark Souder (R)69.2% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RMark Souder (R)
Indiana 7D+9Julia Carson (D)54.3% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLean DLikely DJulia Carson (D)
Indiana 8R+9John Hostettler (R)53.4% RTossupLikely D(flip)Likely D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Brad Ellsworth (D)
Indiana 9R+7Mike Sodrel (R)49.4% RTossupTilt D(flip)Tilt D(flip)TossupTossupBaron Hill (D)
Iowa 1D+5Jim Nussle (R)(retiring)[a]55.2% RLean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2D+7Jim Leach (R)58.9% RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe RLikely RDave Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3D+1Leonard Boswell (D)55.2% DLean DLean DLean DLean DLean DLeonard Boswell (D)
Kansas 2R+7Jim Ryun (R)56.1% RTossupTossupTilt RSafe RLikely RNancy Boyda (D)
Kansas 3R+4Dennis Moore (D)54.8% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DDennis Moore (D)
Kentucky 2R+13Ron Lewis (R)67.9% RLean RLikely RLean RSafe RLean RRon Lewis (R)
Kentucky 3D+2Anne Northup (R)60.3% RTossupTilt RTilt RTossupLean RJohn Yarmuth (D)
Kentucky 4R+12Geoff Davis (R)54.4% RLean RTilt RTilt D(flip)Lean RLean RGeoff Davis (R)
Louisiana 2D+28William Jefferson (D)79.0% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DWilliam Jefferson (D)
Louisiana 3R+5Charlie Melançon (D)50.2% DLean DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DCharlie Melançon (D)
Louisiana 7R+7Charles Boustany (R)55.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RCharles Boustany (R)
Maryland 3D+7Ben Cardin (D)(retiring)[b]63.4% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DJohn Sarbanes (D)
Maryland 6R+13Roscoe Bartlett (R)67.5% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RRoscoe Bartlett (R)
Michigan 7R+2Joe Schwarz (R)(lost renomination)58.4% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RTim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8R+2Mike Rogers (R)61.1% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RMike Rogers (R)
Minnesota 1R+1Gil Gutknecht (R)59.6% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RLean RTim Walz (D)
Minnesota 2R+3John Kline (R)56.4% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RJohn Kline (R)
Minnesota 6R+5Mark Kennedy (R)(retiring)[b]54.0% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RTossupMichele Bachmann (R)
Nebraska 1R+11Jeff Fortenberry (R)54.2% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RJeff Fortenberry (R)
Nebraska 3R+24Tom Osborne (R)(retiring)[a]87.5% RLean RLikely RTilt RSafe RLean RAdrian Smith (R)
Nevada 2R+8Jim Gibbons (R)(retiring)[a]66.5% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RDean Heller (R)
Nevada 3D+1Jon Porter (R)54.5% RTossupTilt RTilt RLean RLean RJon Porter (R)
New Hampshire 1EvenJeb Bradley (R)63.4% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RCarol Shea-Porter (D)
New Hampshire 2D+3Charles Bass (R)58.3% RTossupTilt D(flip)Tilt D(flip)TossupTossupPaul Hodes (D)
New Jersey 5R+4Scott Garrett (R)57.6% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RScott Garrett (R)
New Jersey 7R+1Mike Ferguson (R)56.9% RLean RLean RLean RSafe RLean RMike Ferguson (R)
New Mexico 1D+2Heather Wilson (R)54.4% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)TossupTossupHeather Wilson (R)
New York 3D+2Peter King (R)63.0% RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RPeter King (R)
New York 13D+1Vito Fossella (R)59.0% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RVito Fossella (R)
New York 19R+1Sue Kelly (R)66.7% RLean RLikely RTilt RLean RLean RJohn Hall (D)
New York 20R+3John E. Sweeney (R)65.8% RTossupTilt D(flip)Tilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupKirsten Gillibrand (D)
New York 24R+1Sherwood Boehlert (R)(retiring)56.9% RLean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupMike Arcuri (D)
New York 25D+3James T. Walsh (R)90.4% RLean RTilt RTilt RLean RLean RJames T. Walsh (R)
New York 26R+3Thomas M. Reynolds (R)55.6% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RLean D(flip)Thomas M. Reynolds (R)
New York 29R+5Randy Kuhl (R)50.7% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RLean RRandy Kuhl (R)
North Carolina 8R+3Robin Hayes (R)55.5% RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe RLikely RRobin Hayes (R)
North Carolina 11R+7Charles Taylor (R)54.9% RLean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupHeath Shuler (D)
North Carolina 13D+2Brad Miller (D)58.8% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DBrad Miller (D)
Ohio 1R+1Steve Chabot (R)59.8% RTossupTossupTilt RTossupTossupSteve Chabot (R)
Ohio 2R+13Jean Schmidt (R)51.6% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)TossupTossupJean Schmidt (R)
Ohio 6EvenTed Strickland (D)(retiring)[a]100.0% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DCharlie Wilson (D)
Ohio 12R+1Pat Tiberi (R)62.0% RLikely RLean RLikely RSafe RLikely RPat Tiberi (R)
Ohio 13D+6Sherrod Brown (D)(retiring)[b]67.4% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DBetty Sutton (D)
Ohio 15R+1Deborah Pryce (R)60.0% RTossupLean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)TossupDeborah Pryce (R)
Ohio 18R+6Vacant[d]66.2% RLean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Zack Space (D)
Oregon 5D+1Darlene Hooley (D)52.9% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DDarlene Hooley (D)
Pennsylvania 4R+3Melissa Hart (R)63.1% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RLean RJason Altmire (D)
Pennsylvania 6D+2Jim Gerlach (R)51.0% RTossupTossupLean D(flip)TossupTossupJim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7D+4Curt Weldon (R)58.8% RTossupLean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Joe Sestak (D)
Pennsylvania 8D+3Mike Fitzpatrick (R)55.3% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RTossupPatrick Murphy (D)
Pennsylvania 10R+8Don Sherwood (R)92.8% RTossupLean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Chris Carney (D)
South Carolina 5R+6John Spratt (D)63.1% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DJohn Spratt (D)
Texas 17R+18Chet Edwards (D)51.2% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DChet Edwards (D)
Texas 22R+15Vacant[e]55.2% RTossupTossupTilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Nick Lampson (D)
Texas 23R+4Henry Bonilla (R)69.3% RLean RLean RLean RSafe RLikely RCiro Rodriguez (D)
Utah 2R+17Jim Matheson (D)54.8% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DJim Matheson (D)
Vermont at-largeD+8Bernie Sanders (I)(retiring)[b]67.4% ILean D(flip)Likely D(flip)Likely D(flip)Lean D(flip)Lean D(flip)Peter Welch (D)
Virginia 2R+6Thelma Drake (R)55.1% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RLean RThelma Drake (R)
Virginia 11R+5Frank Wolf (R)63.7% RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe RLikely RFrank Wolf (R)
Washington 2D+3Rick Larsen (D)54.8% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DRick Larsen (D)
Washington 5R+7Cathy McMorris (R)59.7% RLikely RSafe RLean RSafe RLikely RCathy McMorris (R)
Washington 8D+2Dave Reichert (R)51.5% RLean RTilt RTilt RLean RTossupDave Reichert (R)
West Virginia 1R+6Alan Mollohan (D)67.8% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DAlan Mollohan (D)
West Virginia 2R+5Shelley Moore Capito (R)57.5% RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RShelley Moore Capito (R)
Wisconsin 8EvenMark Green (R)(retiring)[a]70.1% RTossupTossupTilt RLean RTossupSteve Kagen (D)
Wyoming at-largeR+19Barbara Cubin (R)55.3% RTossupLikely RTilt RSafe RTossupBarbara Cubin (R)
OverallD - 207
R - 189
39 tossups
D - 220
R - 196
19 tossups
D - 233
R - 202
D - 214
R - 205
16 tossups
D - 213
R - 199
23 tossups
D - 233
R - 202

Polling map - November 6, 2006

[edit]

The map below shows the latest polling information as of November 6, 2006, for House races. No party polls included. Darker colors indicate stronger support. Where no polls were available, last year's election results were used. If two polls tied for most recent, the longer poll was used.

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefgRetired to run for Governor
  2. ^abcdeRetired to run for senate
  3. ^IncumbentMark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
  4. ^IncumbentBob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress.
  5. ^IncumbentTom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006,Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2006 Competitive House Race Chart"(PDF).House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived fromthe original on September 27, 2007. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  2. ^"2006 House Ratings".House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2006. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  3. ^"2006 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Archived fromthe original on November 10, 2006. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  4. ^"Battle for the House of Representatives".realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2006. Archived fromthe original on November 9, 2006. RetrievedDecember 12, 2023.
  5. ^"Balance of Power Scorecard: House".cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived fromthe original on November 17, 2006. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
U.S.
Senate
U.S.
House

(election
ratings
)
Governors
Attorneys
General
State officials
State
legislatures
Mayors
Local
States
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2006_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings&oldid=1281063486"
Categories:
Hidden categories:

[8]ページ先頭

©2009-2025 Movatter.jp