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2006 California's 50th congressional district special election

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2006 California's 50th congressional district special election

← 2004June 6, 2006November 2006 →
 
NomineeBrian BilbrayFrancine Busby
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote78,34171,146
Percentage49.3044.77

Representative before election

Duke Cunningham
Republican

Elected Representative

Brian Bilbray
Republican

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On June 6, 2006, aspecial election was held inCalifornia's 50th congressional district to choose a new member of theU.S. Representative to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation ofRepublicanRandy Cunningham. Cunningham resigned on November 28, 2005, after pleading guilty tobribery,wire fraud,mail fraud, andtax evasion charges, and was sentenced to eight years and four months infederal prison in 2006.

The specialprimary election was held on April 11, 2006. A candidate who received a majority of the vote would have served out the rest of Cunningham's term. As no candidate won a simple majority, the top vote-getters in each party,DemocratFrancine Busby and RepublicanBrian Bilbray, competed in a runoff specialgeneral election held on June 6, 2006, the same day that primaries were held for the November 2006 general election.

Bilbray won the special election 49 percent to 45 percent and was sworn in as a U.S. Representative on June 13, 2006. In the June 6 primary election for the November 2006 election, both candidates won their party's nomination. In the November 2006 general election rematch, Bilbray won re-election.

National implications

[edit]

Because the 50th is considered to be a heavily Republican district, it would have been considered major news if Busby had won.[1] "This is a biggie," said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego's Mesa College. "Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November."[2] For that reason, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $5 million on this race.[3]

Controversies

[edit]

During the campaign,Arizona SenatorJohn McCain cancelled a planned fundraiser for Bilbray at the last minute, after Bilbray criticized McCain's immigration bill as "amnesty" for illegal immigrants.[4]

On June 2, five days before the special congressional election, Busby was recorded telling a largely Hispanic group that "You can all help--you don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help." This comment was in response to a question by a man who asked in Spanish, "I want to help, but I don't have papers."[5]The recording was circulated over the Internet and on radio. Republicans claimed Busby was encouraging people to vote illegally, while Busby claimed she misspoke and meant that a person does not need to be a registered voter to help her campaign (such as phoning registered voters).[6]

A number of irregularities in the election were alleged, including the swearing in of Bilbray by a member of his own party 17 days before the election was certified, "electronic voting machines sent out to the homes and cars of volunteers for up to 12 days prior to the election, and irregular election results like huge mega-precincts of absentee ballots where turnout was thousands of percent more than registered voters." TheDemocratic National Committee's Voting Rights Institute raised several concerns about the fairness and accuracy of the vote count.[7] An election contest lawsuit sought a hand recount.[8] The court dismissed the suit on the basis that, once the House of Representatives had sworn in Bilbray, the court lackedjurisdiction to hear the challenge.[9]

Post Special-Election analysis

[edit]

Political analystLarry Sabato wrote in hisCrystal Ball newsletter: "What a difference four percentage points makes! That was Bilbray's margin over Busby, a gaffe-prone, lackluster candidate who was out of her league. With six years (1995–2001) under his belt from another California House district, former congressman Bilbray understood what it took to win a tough campaign, and riding the immigration issue, he did so. The DCCC forced the NRCC to pull out all the stops and spend a large fortune for Bilbray, but given the dam that might have burst had Busby won, it was worth every GOP penny for them."[10]

Run-off and Primary elections

[edit]

The June 6, 2006 run-off was held at the same time as the primary election for the biennial November 7, 2006 general election. This created a peculiar opportunity for voters to vote on the same ballot for two different people for the same post; one to immediately fill the vacant seat, the other to run in the November election.

Polling

[edit]
SourceDateFrancine Busby (D)Brian Bilbray (R)OtherNoneUndecidedMargin of Error
Survey USA[11]May 30 to June 1, 200645%47%9%0%4.7%
LRP (Dem)[12]May 12–15, 200647%40%1%12%4.9%
Survey USA[13]May 5–7, 200645%45%9%1%4.8%
Moore (Rep)[14]April 29–30, 200643%37%2%5%13%5%

Results

[edit]

On April 11, Democrat Francine Busby garnered 43.63 percent of the vote, 6.38 percentage points short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. She faced the leading vote getter from the two other parties participating: Republican Brian Bilbray and Libertarian Paul King, as well as independent candidate William Griffith, in a June 6 runoff.

In the June 6 runoff, Bilbray received aplurality with 78,341 votes (49.30%) to become the district's congressman for the remainder of the109th Congress (until January 3, 2007).

For the new term beginning in 2007, the primaries were held on June 6, 2006, concurrent with the special election. Busby and Bilbray each captured their party's nomination (as did Libertarian Paul King and Peace and Freedom candidate Miriam E. Clark). In the November, 2006 general election, Bilbray was again declared the winner.

Endorsements

[edit]
Francine Busby (D)
Individuals
2006 California 50th congressional district special primary[16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticFrancine Busby60,01043.6
RepublicanBrian Bilbray20,95215.2
RepublicanEric Roach19,89114.5
RepublicanHoward Kaloogian10,2077.4
RepublicanBill Morrow7,3695.3
RepublicanAlan Uke5,4774.0
RepublicanRichard Earnest2,9572.1
RepublicanBill Hauf2,2071.6
RepublicanScott Turner2,0411.5
DemocraticChris Young1,8081.3
IndependentWilliam Griffith1,1110.8
RepublicanVictor Ramirez9120.7
LibertarianPaul King8190.6
RepublicanJeff Newsome5740.4
RepublicanScott Orren3450.2
RepublicanDelecia Holt2610.2
RepublicanBill Boyer2040.1
RepublicanMilton Gale580.1
Invalid or blank votes3260.2
Total votes137,529100.0
Turnout 38.9
Republicanhold
2006 California's 50th congressional district special election[17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBrian Bilbray78,34149.6
DemocraticFrancine Busby71,14645.0
IndependentWilliam Griffith6,0273.8
LibertarianPaul King2,5191.6
Invalid or blank votes8820.6
Total votes158,915100.0
Turnout 44.7
Republicanhold

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Washington Whispers: GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race".U.S. News & World Report. June 5, 2006.
  2. ^Perry, Tony (May 30, 2006)."Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP's Vulnerability".Los Angeles Times.
  3. ^"Campaign: Spin on Special Election Begins".The Hill. June 8, 2006. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2006.
  4. ^"McCain Pulls out of Bilbray Fundraiser", San DiegoUnion-Tribune, May 31, 2006
  5. ^Dodge, Dani (June 3, 2006)."Busby on defense, says she misspoke".San Diego Union-Tribune.
  6. ^SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Politics - Busby on defense, says she misspoke
  7. ^Moore, Greg (July 14, 2006)."DNC Voting Rights Institute on CA-50 Special Election".Democratic National Committee. Archived fromthe original on March 3, 2007. RetrievedApril 3, 2007.
  8. ^Congressional Election Nullified – Nobody Noticed,Scoop (news website), August 25, 2006
  9. ^LaVelle, Philip J. (August 30, 2006)."Judge throws out suit seeking to void election of Rep. Bilbray".San Diego Union-Tribune.
  10. ^Sabato, Larry (June 15, 2006)."Election Exceptions: Which 2006 contests will frustrate the national trend?".University of Virginia Center for Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 17, 2006.
  11. ^"Poll Report Popup".www.surveyusa.com.
  12. ^LRP (Dem)
  13. ^"Poll Report Popup".www.surveyusa.com.
  14. ^Moore (Rep)
  15. ^"Francine Busby (CA 50) | WesPAC". Archived fromthe original on May 26, 2006.
  16. ^"Special Primary Election - April 11, 2006".Secretary of State of California. April 21, 2006. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2008. RetrievedApril 26, 2008.
  17. ^2006 special election results

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