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 County results Giffords: 40–50% 50–60% Graf: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2006 Arizona 8th congressional district election was anelection for theUnited States House of Representatives for the open seat of incumbentRepublicanJim Kolbe, who was not running for re-election. The primary was held on September 12, 2006, and the two major party winners were RepublicanRandy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for the GOP nomination in 2004, and former State SenatorGabby Giffords. LibertarianDave Nolan, who was uncontested in the primary, was also in the November 7, 2006, general election.
Graf was considered too conservative for the district. Kolbe withheld his endorsement, and towards the end of the election, the National GOP pulled their support. By election time, most non-partisan analyses considered this race the most likely district to switch hands, which it did, as Giffords won a decisive victory, 54% to 42%.
Incumbent RepublicanJim Kolbe announced on November 23, 2005, that he would not seek re-election in 2006.[9] The district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs ofTucson, was Republican-leaning, but competitive:George W. Bush had won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Kolbe had barely won the seat in 1984, but had usually skated to reelection since then. Even aftercoming out as gay in 1996, he remained very popular in the district, taking 61% of the vote in 2004. Although Kolbe was generally thought to be all but unbeatable in the district, it was widely believed that it would be very competitive once he retired.[10]
Randy Graf, the primary winner, left a leadership position in the state House in 2004 to challenge Kolbe in the Republican primary. Graf had won 40 percent of the vote and had campaigned almost full-time since.[11] A supporter of theMinuteman Project, Graf campaigned on a pledge to ensure that illegal immigrants had no path to citizenship and that the border would be further secured.[12] Graf previously sponsored a bill (which did not pass) to allow patrons carry guns into bars and restaurants.[12]
The GOP establishment, however, considered Graf as too conservative for a district that leaned Republican but gave President Bush only 53 percent of the votes in 2004, and tried to rally voters around moderate state representative Steve Huffman.[13] However, another more moderate candidate, former Arizona Republican Party chairman Mike Hellon, also gained significant support, which split anti-Graf support and prevented Huffman from consolidating the moderate lane.[14]
Huffman got a boost when the national GOP took the rare step of endorsing and supporting Huffman, putting $250,000 into the race. The other GOP candidates criticized the move as unfair. The national Democratic party spent nearly $200,000, much of it on advertisements critical of Huffman in an effort to help Graf's candidacy, believing Graf would be the weaker candidate in the general election.[12]
Huffman's campaign was injured when, according toCQPolitics: "there were allegations that his (Huffman's) campaign treasurer, local real estate broker William Arnold, had stalked Hellon’s ex-wife, state Sen.Toni Hellon". Arnold quit as treasurer after Hellon obtained a restraining order against him, and Huffman's campaign said it had no involvement in Arnold's actions." The scandal expanded when it was revealed that unauthorised photos of Toni Hellon had been posted to a website owned by the same individual who had designed Huffman's campaign website.[13] As a result of the incident, theTucson Weekly withdrew its support for Huffman.[13]
Gabby Giffords, who was former State Senator, resigned from theArizona Legislature just eight days after Kolbe's announcement, in order to run for his seat. She quickly established herself as the front-runner, largely on the basis of her legislative record. She also gained some beneficial publicity when it was revealed that she was engaged to space shuttle astronautMark Kelly.[13] Her only serious competition was longtimeKVOA television newscaster Patty Weiss, who ran as a more liberal alternative to Giffords.[17]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 33,375 | 26.3 | |
| Republican | Randy Graf | 27,063 | 21.3 | |
| Republican | Steve Huffman | 24,119 | 19.0 | |
| Democratic | Patty Weiss | 19,148 | 15.1 | |
| Republican | Mike Hellon | 9,095 | 7.2 | |
| Democratic | Jeffrey Lynn Latas | 3,687 | 2.9 | |
| Democratic | Alex Rodriguez | 2,855 | 2.2 | |
| Republican | Frank Antenori | 2,724 | 2.1 | |
| Republican | Michael T. Jenkins | 2,075 | 1.6 | |
| Democratic | William Daniel Johnson | 1,768 | 1.4 | |
| Democratic | Francine Shacter | 576 | 0.4 | |
| Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 516 | 0.4 | |
Graf's campaign got off to a rough start in mid-September when outgoing Republican incumbent Jim Kolbe withheld his endorsement, citing "profound and fundamental differences" between their views.[22][23] TheArizona Republic wrote that a "victory by Graf would in effect repudiate much of Kolbe's work on what has come to be known as 'comprehensive' immigration reform. In contrast with 'enforcement only,' Kolbe’s plan would create a guest-worker program and an opportunity for undocumented residents to become citizens eventually."[11]
In mid-AugustCQPolitics changed their rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite".[24]
By late September, Graf's position had continued to deteriorate. TheCook Political Report changed their rating from "Toss Up" to "Leans Democratic",[25] and the national Republican Party cancelled about $1 million in advertising support.[26] Two days later, in what was seen as a diminished level of national influence and interest in what had long been considered a competitive race, the national Democratic party also pulled their financial support.[27]
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| 2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district general election debates | |||||||||||||||
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| No. | Date & time | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||||
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee | |||||||||||||||
| Jay Quick | David F. Nolan | Gabby Giffords | Randy Graf | ||||||||||||
| 1[37] | October 17, 2006 | Access Tucson Arizona Daily Star | Joe Birchall | Video[38] | P | P | P | P | |||||||
On September 20, 2006, Gabby Giffords' campaign released an internal poll that showed her leading Republican candidate Randy Graf by 19 percentage points.[39] The poll showed Giffords with 54% of the vote and Graf with 35%. The poll was based on responses from 500 likely general election voters and had a +/-4% margin of error.
Results from a second poll conducted during the same time period confirmed a Giffords lead while suggesting a slightly tighter race.[40] This independent poll, conducted by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence, showed Giffords with a 12-point lead (Giffords [48], Graf [36], +/-4% MoE).
On October 4, Zogby released a poll showing Giffords with a 45–37 percent lead.[41]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Randy Graf (R) | Gabby Giffords (D) | Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby[42] | October 24–29, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 4% |
| Wick Communications[43] | October 25–28, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 35% | 50% | 4% | 11% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)/KVOA)[44] | October 20–23, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 38% | 48% | 4% | 10% |
| Reuters/Zogby[45] | September 25 – October 2, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 37% | 45% | 2% | 16% |
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[46] | September 19–21, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 29% | 54% | – | 17% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)/KVOA)[47] | September 16–19, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 36% | 48% | 3% | 13% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Giffords)[48] | September 9–13, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.0% | 35% | 54% | 5% | 6% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)[49] | September 1–4, 2006 | 800 (LV) | ±4.9% | 36% | 46% | – | 19% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[50] | Lean D(flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg[51] | Likely D(flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Likely D(flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| CQ Politics[53] | Likely D(flip) | November 7, 2006 |
Giffords was declared the winner 37 minutes after the polls closed. Graf conceded defeat at 10:08 P.M. EST.[54]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 137,655 | 54.25 | |||
| Republican | Randy Graf | 106,790 | 42.09 | |||
| Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 4,849 | 1.91 | |||
| Independent | Jay Dudley Quick | 4,408 | 1.74 | |||
| Write-ins | Russ Dove | 7 | 0.00 | |||
| Write-ins | Leo F. Kimminau | 7 | 0.00 | |||
| Write-ins | Paul Price | 5 | 0.00 | |||
| Total votes | 253,720 | 100.00 | ||||
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