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2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

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Main article:2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

← 2000November 2, 20042008 →
Turnout82.05% (of registered voters)Increase6.59%[1]
 
NomineeJohn KerryGeorge W. Bush
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Running mateJohn EdwardsDick Cheney
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,510,2011,304,894
Percentage52.77%45.60%

County results
Congressional district results

Kerry

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%

Bush

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in Washington (state)
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
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The2004 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

The State ofWashington was considered a competitiveswing state in 2004, and on election day, Kerry won the state with a margin of 7.2%. This is the most recent presidential election in which Washington was considered aswing state.[2] As of the2024 presidential election[update], this remains the last time the state's margin of victory was in single digits and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This was the only time since statehood that any president was elected twice without carrying Washington either time, a feat that lasted until2024.

Caucuses

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportSolid D
Cook Political ReportSolid D
NewsweekSolid D
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington PostLikely D
Research 2000Solid D
Washington TimesSolid D
Washington DispatchLikely D
The New York TimesSolid D
CNNLikely D
Associated PressSolid D
Rasmussen ReportsLikely D

Polling

[edit]

Kerry won every single pre-election except one tie. The final 3 poll average had Kerry winning with 50% to 45%.[4]

Fundraising

[edit]

Bush raised $3,263,363.[5] Kerry raised $5,337,921.[6]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[7][8]

Analysis

[edit]

A Democratic leaning swing state at the time, Washington has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every presidential election since1988. Like Oregon, the state is divided politically by the urban/rural divide and geographically by theCascade Mountains. Most of the state's population resides in Western Washington along thePacific Coast and in highly urbanized areas like Seattle; this part of the state votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The other side of the mountains in Eastern Washington is much morerural and conservative and therefore heavily Republican. While polling showed that voters trusted Bush more than Kerry on the issue of terrorism, theIraq War and Bush's domestic policies were unpopular in the state.[9] As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last election in whichClark County,Island County, andSkagit County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

[edit]
2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Forbes KerryJohn Reid Edwards1,510,20152.77%11
RepublicanGeorge Walker Bush (incumbent)Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent)1,304,89445.60%0
IndependentRalph NaderPeter Camejo23,2830.81%0
LibertarianMichael BadnarikRichard Campagna11,9550.42%0
ConstitutionMichael PeroutkaChuck Baldwin3,9220.14%0
GreenDavid CobbPat LaMarche2,9740.10%0
Write-insWrite-ins2,6290.09%0
Workers WorldJohn ParkerTeresa Gutierrez1,0770.04%0
Socialist WorkersRoger CaleroMargaret Trowe5470.02%0
Socialist EqualityBill Van AukenJim Lawrence2310.01%0
Totals2,859,084100.00%11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)61.7%

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams1,31525.65%3,75173.16%611.19%-2,436-47.51%5,127
Asotin3,31937.78%5,32060.55%1471.67%-2,001-22.77%8,786
Benton21,54932.21%44,35066.30%9931.48%-22,801-34.09%66,892
Chelan10,47135.58%18,48262.80%4771.62%-8,011-27.22%29,430
Clallam17,04946.37%18,87151.33%8462.30%-1,822-4.96%36,766
Clark79,53846.65%88,64651.99%2,3111.36%-9,108-5.34%170,495
Columbia60528.71%1,47069.77%321.52%-865-41.06%2,107
Cowlitz21,58950.76%20,21747.54%7241.71%1,3723.22%42,530
Douglas4,30632.20%8,90066.56%1661.25%-4,594-34.36%13,372
Ferry1,20135.92%2,01960.38%1243.71%-818-24.46%3,344
Franklin5,18832.11%10,75766.57%2141.32%-5,569-34.46%16,159
Garfield36527.65%93570.83%201.51%-570-43.18%1,320
Grant7,77929.92%17,79968.47%4171.60%-10,020-38.55%25,995
Grays Harbor14,58352.17%12,87146.05%4991.78%1,7126.12%27,953
Island18,21647.22%19,75451.20%6101.58%-1,538-3.98%38,580
Jefferson11,61062.25%6,65035.66%3902.09%4,96026.59%18,650
King580,37864.87%301,04333.65%13,3071.48%279,33531.22%894,728
Kitsap60,79651.23%55,60846.86%2,2661.91%5,1884.37%118,670
Kittitas6,73141.77%9,05256.17%3312.05%-2,321-14.40%16,114
Klickitat4,03643.63%5,01654.23%1982.15%-980-10.60%9,250
Lewis10,72633.08%21,04264.89%6602.04%-10,316-31.81%32,428
Lincoln1,70629.36%4,01569.09%901.56%-2,309-39.73%5,811
Mason12,89450.78%11,98747.20%5132.01%9073.58%25,394
Okanogan6,30938.61%9,63658.96%3972.43%-3,327-20.35%16,342
Pacific5,57053.40%4,63444.43%2272.17%9368.97%10,431
Pend Oreille2,31037.27%3,69359.58%1953.14%-1,383-22.31%6,198
Pierce158,23150.43%150,78348.05%4,7791.53%7,4482.38%313,793
San Juan6,58965.21%3,29032.56%2252.23%3,29932.65%10,104
Skagit25,13148.05%26,13949.98%1,0291.96%-1,008-1.93%52,299
Skamania2,37446.02%2,69552.24%901.74%-321-6.22%5,159
Snohomish156,46852.97%134,31745.47%4,6291.57%22,1517.50%295,414
Spokane87,49043.19%111,60655.09%3,4911.72%-24,116-11.90%202,587
Stevens6,82233.54%13,01563.99%5032.47%-6,193-30.45%20,340
Thurston62,65055.55%47,99242.55%2,1471.90%14,65813.00%112,789
Wahkiakum1,02145.68%1,17152.39%431.92%-150-6.71%2,235
Walla Walla8,25736.02%14,32362.48%3451.50%-6,066-26.46%22,925
Whatcom48,26853.40%40,29644.58%1,8302.02%7,9728.82%90,394
Whitman8,28746.01%9,39752.17%3281.83%-1,110-6.16%18,012
Yakima28,47439.12%43,35259.56%9641.32%-14,878-20.44%72,790
Totals1,510,20152.77%1,304,89445.60%46,6181.63%205,3077.17%2,861,713
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Kerry won six of nine congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[10]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st42%56%Jay Inslee
2nd47%51%Rick Larsen
3rd50%48%Brian Baird
4th63%35%Doc Hastings
5th57%41%George Nethercutt
Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th45%53%Norm Dicks
7th19%79%Jim McDermott
8th48%51%Jennifer Dunn
Dave Reichert
9th46%53%Adam Smith

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Washington cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Washington is allocated 11 electors because it has 9congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. David Peterson
  2. Mary Ervin
  3. Valeria Ogden
  4. Patsy Whitefoot
  5. Larry Armstrong
  6. Ken Bumgarner
  7. Richard Kelley
  8. Sarah Chandler
  9. Greg Markley
  10. Alan Johanson
  11. Mary Crosby

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Secretary of State: Kim Wyman."Voter Turnout by Election".www.sos.wa.gov. RetrievedMay 25, 2020.
  2. ^Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012)."How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. RetrievedNovember 24, 2020.
  3. ^Members DC Political Report[permanent dead link]
  4. ^"2004 Presidential Election Polls. Washington Polls". US Election Atlas.
  5. ^"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. ^"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. ^"America votes 2004: Candidate tracker".CNN. RetrievedMay 27, 2022.
  8. ^"America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN.Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. RetrievedMay 27, 2022.
  9. ^"Election 2004: Exit polls". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. RetrievedMay 27, 2022.
  10. ^"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
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