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2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

← 2000November 2, 20042008 →
Turnout70.79%[1]
 
NomineeGeorge W. BushJohn Kerry
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateTexasMassachusetts
Running mateDick CheneyJohn Edwards
Electoral vote130
Popular vote1,716,9591,454,742
Percentage53.68%45.48%

County and independent city results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Bush

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Kerry

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Virginia was won by incumbentPresidentGeorge W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise ared state. The state had voted for theRepublican candidate in all presidential elections since1952 except for1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in2008.

As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last time that Virginia has voted for a Republican candidate in a presidential election (or in any federal statewide election). This is also the last time Virginia and West Virginia have voted for the same presidential candidate.

This was also the last timeBuchanan County andDickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last timeLoudoun County,Prince William County, andHenrico County, and the independent cities ofWinchester,Radford,Staunton,Harrisonburg,Manassas,Suffolk,Hopewell, andManassas Park, would vote Republican for president.

Kerry narrowly wonNorthern Virginia, which would transform into a Democratic stronghold in 2008. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingFairfax County sinceCalvin Coolidge in1924.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Elections in Virginia
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Commonwealth's Attorney

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportSolid R
Associated PressLean R
CNNLikely R
Cook Political ReportLean R
NewsweekLean R
New York TimesLean R
Rasmussen ReportsLikely R
Research 2000Solid R
Washington PostLikely R
Washington TimesSolid R
Zogby InternationalLikely R
Washington DispatchLikely R

Polling

[edit]

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.[3]

Fundraising

[edit]

Bush raised $8,594,386.[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[5]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[6][7]

Analysis

[edit]

For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, reliably Democratic at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s, Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growingRichmond- andWashington, D.C.-area suburbs ofHenrico,Chesterfield, andFairfax Counties. This trend would start to change in the 2000s; although Bush was widely expected to carry Virginia and did prevail in the state by over 8 points, this election set the stage for the state to become more competitive on the presidential level in the future.

Though the state was uncontested by both campaigns,[8] John Kerry became the first Democrat sinceLyndon B. Johnson in1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold and the most populous county in the state. He was also the first Democrat sinceHarry S. Truman in1948 to carry the independent city ofDanville andAlbermarle County.[9] However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly inSouthwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carryRussell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10 points inWashington,Scott,Wise,Lee, andSmyth Counties. These countervailing trends would continue in subsequent elections, with Democrats expanding their support in Fairfax County while Republicans showed increasing support in Appalachian Virginia.

Results

[edit]
2004 United States presidential election in Virginia[10]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush(inc.)Dick Cheney(incumbent)1,716,95953.68%13
DemocraticJohn KerryJohn Edwards1,454,74245.48%0
LibertarianMichael BadnarikRichard Campagna11,0320.34%0
ConstitutionMichael PeroutkaChuck Baldwin10,1610.32%0
Independent (Write-in)Ralph Nader (Write-in)Peter Camejo2,3930.07%0
Green (Write-in)David Cobb (Write-in)Pat LaMarche104<0.01%0
Write-ins2,9760.09%0
Totals3,198,367100.00%13
Voter turnout (Voting age population)57.2%

By city/county

[edit]
County/CityGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Accomack7,72657.85%5,51841.31%1120.84%2,20816.54%13,356
Albemarle21,18948.46%22,08850.51%4491.03%-899-2.05%43,726
Alexandria19,84432.26%41,11666.84%5550.90%-21,272-34.58%61,515
Alleghany3,96255.07%3,20344.52%300.42%75910.55%7,195
Amelia3,49964.83%1,86234.50%360.67%1,63730.33%5,397
Amherst7,75861.11%4,86638.33%710.56%2,89222.78%12,695
Appomattox4,36665.60%2,19132.92%981.47%2,17532.68%6,655
Arlington29,63531.31%63,98767.60%1,0281.09%-34,352-36.29%94,650
Augusta22,10074.40%7,01923.63%5851.97%15,08150.77%29,704
Bath1,43262.75%82836.28%220.96%60426.47%2,282
Bedford21,92569.82%9,10228.98%3771.20%12,82340.84%31,404
Bedford City1,47257.91%1,04240.99%281.10%43016.92%2,542
Bland1,96268.48%84629.53%571.99%1,11638.95%2,865
Botetourt10,86568.78%4,80130.39%1310.83%6,06438.39%15,797
Bristol4,27563.58%2,40035.69%490.73%1,87527.89%6,724
Brunswick2,85241.18%4,06258.65%120.17%-1,210-17.47%6,926
Buchanan4,50745.85%5,27553.67%470.48%-768-7.82%9,829
Buckingham3,18552.85%2,78946.28%530.88%3966.57%6,027
Buena Vista1,41759.31%93639.18%361.51%48120.13%2,389
Campbell15,89169.10%6,86229.84%2441.06%9,02939.26%22,997
Caroline4,99950.22%4,87849.01%770.77%1211.21%9,954
Carroll8,17367.39%3,88832.06%670.55%4,28535.33%12,128
Charles City1,25436.46%2,15562.66%300.87%-901-26.20%3,439
Charlotte3,16658.22%2,22340.88%490.90%94317.34%5,438
Charlottesville4,17227.00%11,08871.77%1901.23%-6,916-44.77%15,450
Chesapeake52,28357.11%38,74442.32%5140.56%13,53914.79%91,541
Chesterfield83,74562.58%49,34636.88%7230.54%34,39925.70%133,814
Clarke3,74157.51%2,69941.49%651.00%1,04216.02%6,505
Colonial Heights6,12974.46%2,06125.04%410.50%4,06849.42%8,231
Covington1,10447.98%1,17951.24%180.78%-75-3.26%2,301
Craig1,70665.09%90134.38%140.53%80530.71%2,621
Culpeper10,02664.25%5,47635.09%1030.66%4,55029.16%15,605
Cumberland2,37757.61%1,72141.71%280.68%65615.90%4,126
Danville9,39949.18%9,43649.37%2771.45%-37-0.19%19,112
Dickenson3,59148.49%3,76150.78%540.73%-170-2.29%7,406
Dinwiddie6,19357.14%4,56942.15%770.71%1,62414.99%10,839
Emporia97043.67%1,24756.15%40.18%-277-12.48%2,221
Essex2,30453.04%2,00746.20%330.76%2976.84%4,344
Fairfax211,98045.94%245,67153.25%3,7280.81%-33,691-7.31%461,379
Fairfax City5,04547.84%5,39551.16%1061.01%-350-3.32%10,546
Falls Church2,07434.01%3,94464.68%801.31%-1,870-30.67%6,098
Fauquier19,01163.55%10,71235.81%1920.64%8,29927.74%29,915
Floyd4,16261.81%2,48836.95%841.25%1,67424.86%6,734
Fluvanna6,45858.94%4,41540.29%840.77%2,04318.65%10,957
Franklin14,04863.21%8,00236.01%1730.78%6,04627.20%22,223
Franklin City1,61345.62%1,91054.02%130.37%-297-8.40%3,536
Frederick19,38667.93%8,85331.02%3011.05%10,53336.91%28,540
Fredericksburg3,39044.95%4,08554.16%670.89%-695-9.21%7,542
Galax1,33657.22%98742.27%120.51%34914.95%2,335
Giles4,32057.62%3,04740.64%1311.75%1,27316.98%7,498
Gloucester11,08467.86%5,10531.26%1440.88%5,97936.60%16,333
Goochland6,66864.50%3,58334.66%870.84%3,08529.84%10,338
Grayson4,65565.22%2,43034.05%520.73%2,22531.17%7,137
Greene4,57065.86%2,24032.28%1291.86%2,33033.58%6,939
Greensville1,73240.68%2,51459.04%120.28%-782-18.36%4,258
Halifax8,36357.06%6,22042.44%730.50%2,14314.62%14,656
Hampton23,39941.98%32,01657.44%3260.58%-8,617-15.46%55,741
Hanover35,40471.36%13,94128.10%2660.54%21,46343.26%49,611
Harrisonburg6,16555.89%4,72642.85%1391.26%1,43913.04%11,030
Henrico71,80953.82%60,86445.62%7450.56%10,9458.20%133,418
Henry13,35856.94%9,85141.99%2491.06%3,50714.95%23,458
Highland98264.61%52234.34%161.05%46030.27%1,520
Hopewell4,25153.57%3,57345.02%1121.41%6788.55%7,936
Isle of Wight9,92962.56%5,87136.99%710.45%4,05825.57%15,871
James City18,94960.95%11,93438.39%2070.67%7,01522.56%31,090
King and Queen1,73752.86%1,50645.83%431.31%2317.03%3,286
King George5,12464.69%2,73934.58%580.73%2,38530.11%7,921
King William4,39763.98%2,43635.45%390.57%1,96128.53%6,872
Lancaster3,72459.78%2,47739.76%290.47%1,24720.02%6,230
Lee5,66457.97%4,00540.99%1011.03%1,65916.98%9,770
Lexington98241.81%1,34057.05%271.15%-358-15.24%2,349
Loudoun60,38255.69%47,27143.60%7770.72%13,11112.09%108,430
Louisa7,08358.85%4,84440.25%1080.90%2,23918.60%12,035
Lunenburg2,85854.49%2,36245.03%250.48%4969.46%5,245
Lynchburg14,40054.67%11,72744.52%2130.81%2,67310.15%26,340
Madison3,55661.61%2,17637.70%400.69%1,38023.91%5,772
Manassas7,25756.24%5,56243.11%840.65%1,69513.13%12,903
Manassas Park1,80754.23%1,49844.96%270.81%3099.27%3,332
Martinsville2,53845.30%3,03654.19%290.52%-498-8.89%5,603
Mathews3,49768.18%1,58930.98%430.84%1,90837.20%5,129
Mecklenburg7,31957.27%5,29341.42%1681.31%2,02615.85%12,780
Middlesex3,33662.04%1,91435.60%1272.36%1,42226.44%5,377
Montgomery17,07054.16%14,12844.83%3171.01%2,9429.33%31,515
Nelson3,53949.57%3,54349.63%570.80%-4-0.06%7,139
New Kent5,41468.13%2,44330.75%891.12%2,97137.38%7,946
Newport News32,20847.40%35,31951.98%4250.63%-3,111-4.58%67,952
Norfolk26,40137.41%43,51861.67%6510.92%-17,117-24.26%70,570
Northampton2,66948.54%2,77550.46%551.00%-106-1.92%5,499
Northumberland3,83259.79%2,54839.76%290.45%1,28420.03%6,409
Norton76851.06%72548.20%110.73%432.86%1,504
Nottoway3,30354.78%2,63543.70%921.53%66811.08%6,030
Orange7,74959.94%5,01538.79%1641.27%2,73421.15%12,928
Page6,22164.78%3,32434.61%580.60%2,89730.17%9,603
Patrick5,50767.04%2,57231.31%1361.66%2,93535.73%8,215
Petersburg2,23818.73%9,68281.03%290.24%-7,444-62.30%11,949
Pittsylvania17,67364.46%9,27433.83%4701.71%8,39930.63%27,417
Poquoson5,00477.22%1,42421.98%520.80%3,58055.24%6,480
Portsmouth15,21238.48%24,11260.99%2100.53%-8,900-22.51%39,534
Powhatan8,95573.62%3,11225.59%960.79%5,84348.03%12,163
Prince Edward3,57148.81%3,63249.64%1131.54%-61-0.83%7,316
Prince George8,13161.35%5,06638.22%570.43%3,06523.13%13,254
Prince William69,77652.84%61,27146.40%1,0160.77%8,5056.44%132,063
Pulaski8,76961.53%5,31037.26%1721.21%3,45924.27%14,251
Radford2,56452.92%2,24446.32%370.76%3206.60%4,845
Rappahannock2,17253.63%1,83745.36%411.01%3358.27%4,050
Richmond2,08261.95%1,24336.98%361.07%83924.97%3,361
Richmond City21,63729.11%52,16770.19%5210.70%-30,530-41.08%74,325
Roanoke30,59665.14%16,08234.24%2950.63%14,51430.90%46,973
Roanoke City16,66146.28%18,86252.39%4771.33%-2,201-6.11%36,000
Rockbridge5,41258.95%3,62739.51%1421.55%1,78519.44%9,181
Rockingham21,73774.40%7,27324.89%2060.71%14,46449.51%29,216
Russell6,07753.20%5,16745.23%1791.57%9107.97%11,423
Salem7,11561.96%4,25437.04%1151.00%2,86124.92%11,484
Scott6,47965.00%3,32433.35%1641.65%3,15531.65%9,967
Shenandoah11,82068.94%5,18630.25%1400.82%6,63438.69%17,146
Smyth7,90664.18%4,14333.63%2702.19%3,76330.55%12,319
Southampton4,01853.63%3,43145.80%430.57%5877.83%7,492
Spotsylvania28,52762.77%16,62336.58%2950.65%11,90426.19%45,445
Stafford28,50061.98%17,20837.42%2780.60%11,29224.56%45,986
Staunton5,80560.29%3,75639.01%680.71%2,04921.28%9,629
Suffolk16,76352.08%15,23347.32%1930.60%1,5304.76%32,189
Surry1,54343.81%1,95455.48%250.71%-411-11.67%3,522
Sussex1,89043.50%2,42055.70%350.81%-530-12.20%4,345
Tazewell10,03957.43%7,18441.10%2571.47%2,85516.33%17,480
Virginia Beach103,75259.06%70,66640.22%1,2690.72%33,08618.84%175,687
Warren8,60061.13%5,24137.25%2271.61%3,35923.88%14,068
Washington14,74965.51%7,33932.60%4261.89%7,41032.91%22,514
Waynesboro5,09263.95%2,79235.06%790.99%2,30028.89%7,963
Westmoreland3,43350.13%3,37049.21%450.66%630.92%6,848
Williamsburg2,06447.78%2,21651.30%400.93%-152-3.52%4,320
Winchester5,28356.55%3,96742.46%931.00%1,31614.09%9,343
Wise8,33058.20%5,80240.54%1801.26%2,52817.66%14,312
Wythe7,91168.47%3,58130.99%620.54%4,33037.48%11,554
York19,39664.91%10,27634.39%2080.70%9,12030.52%29,880
Totals1,716,95953.68%1,454,74245.48%26,6660.84%262,2178.20%3,198,367
County and Independent City Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Bush won nine of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[11]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st60%39%Jo Ann Davis
2nd58%42%Thelma Drake
3rd33%66%Bobby Scott
4th57%43%Randy Forbes
5th56%43%Virgil Goode
6th63%36%Bob Goodlatte
7th61%38%Eric Cantor
8th35%64%Jim Moran
9th59%39%Rick Boucher
10th55%44%Frank Wolf
11th50%49%Tom Davis

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Registration/Turnout Reports - Summary of Virginia Registration & Turnout Statistics".Virginia Department of Elections.
  2. ^"D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings".www.dcpoliticalreport.com. October 29, 2004. Archived fromthe original on July 29, 2012. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2022.
  3. ^"2004 Presidential Election Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Election.
  4. ^"George W Bush — $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".campaignmoney.com. RetrievedJuly 26, 2017.
  5. ^"John F Kerry — $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President".campaignmoney.com. RetrievedJuly 26, 2017.
  6. ^"CNN.com Specials".CNN.
  7. ^"CNN.com Specials".CNN.
  8. ^Sabato, Larry J."Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He? – Sabato's Crystal Ball". RetrievedNovember 8, 2021.
  9. ^Menendez, Albert J. (2005).The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004. pp. 131,328–331.ISBN 0786422173.
  10. ^Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives."Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 2, 2004"(PDF).
  11. ^https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2004&fips=51&f=0&off=0&elect=0&datatype=cd&def=1
State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election
Electoral map, 2004 election
Republican Party
Candidates
Democratic Party
Candidates
Controversies
Constitution Party
Green Party
Libertarian Party
Personal Choice Party
Prohibition Party
Nominee
Gene Amondson
Alternate nominee
Earl Dodge
Reform Party
Socialist Party
Other candidates
Eric Chester
Socialist Workers Party
Nominee
Róger Calero
Alternate nominee
James Harris
VP nominee
Arrin Hawkins
Workers World Party
Nominee
John Parker
VP nominee
Teresa Gutierrez
Independents and other candidates
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