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The2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
Minnesota was won by Democratic nomineeJohn Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a majorswing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically ablue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election wasRichard Nixon in1972. However, in2000Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.4%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as afaithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot forJohn Edwards (written asJohn Ewards), his running mate.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
Source | Ranking |
---|---|
D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
Cook Political Report | Tossup |
Research 2000 | Lean D |
Zogby International | Likely D |
Washington Post | Tossup |
Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
Washington Times | Tossup |
The New York Times | Tossup |
CNN | Likely D |
Newsweek | Tossup |
Associated Press | Lean D |
Rasmussen Reports | Tossup |
Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll byRasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3.[3] The last poll average byReal Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%.[4] Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.
Bush raised $2,507,181.[5] Kerry raised $2,635,150.[6]
Both tickets visited the state 7 times.[7] A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.[8]
Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as ablue state, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee inRichard Nixon's1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats duringRonald Reagan's two landslides in1980 and1984. However, in2000 and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins.
In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had eitherBush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts:Minnesota's 4th congressional district,Minnesota's 5th congressional district, andMinnesota's 8th congressional district.
As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last election in whichWashington County,Olmsted County, andDakota County voted for the Republican candidate. This was the first time since1928 that a Republican had won a majority inAnoka County. Bush became the first ever Republican to win theWhite House without carryingNicollet County.
2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
Democratic (DFL) | John Kerry | 1,445,014 | 51.09% | 9 | |
Republican | George W. Bush (Inc.) | 1,346,695 | 47.61% | 0 | |
Independent | Ralph Nader | 18,683 | 0.66% | 0 | |
Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 4,639 | 0.16% | 0 | |
Green | David Cobb | 4,408 | 0.16% | 0 | |
Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 3,074 | 0.11% | 0 | |
Independent | Write Ins | 2,530 | 0.09% | 0 | |
Christian Freedom | Thomas Harens | 2,387 | 0.08% | 0 | |
Socialist Equality | Bill Van Auken | 539 | 0.02% | 0 | |
Socialist Workers | Roger Calero | 416 | 0.01% | 0 | |
Socialist Party USA (Write-in) | Walt Brown (Write-in) | 2 | 0.00% | 0 | |
Democratic (DFL) | John Edwards | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | |
Totals | 2,828,387 | 100.00% | 10 | ||
Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population) | 74.2% |
County | John Kerry DFL | George W. Bush Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Aitkin | 4,539 | 48.02% | 4,768 | 50.44% | 145 | 1.53% | -229 | -2.42% | 9,452 |
Anoka | 80,226 | 46.09% | 91,853 | 52.77% | 1,987 | 1.14% | -11,627 | -6.68% | 174,066 |
Becker | 6,756 | 40.21% | 9,795 | 58.30% | 250 | 1.49% | -3,039 | -18.09% | 16,801 |
Beltrami | 10,592 | 50.13% | 10,237 | 48.45% | 302 | 1.43% | 355 | 1.68% | 21,131 |
Benton | 8,059 | 43.84% | 10,043 | 54.63% | 282 | 1.43% | -1,984 | -10.79% | 18,384 |
Big Stone | 1,536 | 50.08% | 1,483 | 48.35% | 48 | 1.57% | 53 | 1.73% | 3,067 |
Blue Earth | 16,865 | 50.92% | 15,737 | 47.52% | 517 | 1.56% | 1,128 | 3.40% | 33,119 |
Brown | 5,158 | 37.44% | 8,395 | 60.93% | 225 | 1.63% | -3,237 | -23.49% | 13,778 |
Carlton | 11,462 | 62.52% | 6,642 | 36.23% | 230 | 1.25% | 4,820 | 26.29% | 18,334 |
Carver | 16,456 | 36.24% | 28,510 | 62.78% | 445 | 0.98% | -12,054 | -26.54% | 45,411 |
Cass | 6,835 | 42.96% | 8,875 | 55.78% | 200 | 1.26% | -2,040 | -12.82% | 15,910 |
Chippewa | 3,424 | 51.83% | 3,089 | 46.76% | 93 | 1.41% | 335 | 5.07% | 6,606 |
Chisago | 12,219 | 43.24% | 15,705 | 55.57% | 336 | 1.19% | -3,486 | -12.33% | 28,260 |
Clay | 12,989 | 46.83% | 14,365 | 51.79% | 383 | 1.38% | -1,376 | -4.96% | 27,737 |
Clearwater | 1,871 | 42.90% | 2,438 | 55.90% | 52 | 1.19% | -567 | -13.00% | 4,361 |
Cook | 1,733 | 52.47% | 1,489 | 45.08% | 81 | 2.45% | 244 | 7.39% | 3,303 |
Cottonwood | 2,726 | 42.80% | 3,557 | 55.85% | 86 | 1.36% | -831 | -13.05% | 6,369 |
Crow Wing | 14,005 | 41.75% | 19,106 | 56.96% | 434 | 1.29% | -5,101 | -15.21% | 33,545 |
Dakota | 104,635 | 48.48% | 108,959 | 50.48% | 2,252 | 1.04% | -4,324 | -2.00% | 215,846 |
Dodge | 4,117 | 41.72% | 5,593 | 56.68% | 158 | 1.60% | -1,476 | -14.96% | 9,868 |
Douglas | 8,219 | 40.47% | 11,793 | 58.07% | 297 | 1.46% | -3,574 | -17.60% | 20,309 |
Faribault | 3,767 | 43.39% | 4,794 | 55.22% | 120 | 1.38% | -1,027 | -11.83% | 8,681 |
Fillmore | 5,825 | 49.79% | 5,694 | 48.67% | 179 | 1.53% | 131 | 1.12% | 11,698 |
Freeborn | 9,733 | 55.09% | 7,681 | 43.48% | 252 | 1.43% | 2,052 | 11.61% | 17,666 |
Goodhue | 12,103 | 47.26% | 13,134 | 51.29% | 371 | 1.45% | -1,031 | -4.03% | 25,608 |
Grant | 1,856 | 48.60% | 1,893 | 49.57% | 70 | 1.83% | -37 | -0.97% | 3,819 |
Hennepin | 383,841 | 59.33% | 255,133 | 39.43% | 8,007 | 1.24% | 128,708 | 19.90% | 646,981 |
Houston | 5,276 | 47.61% | 5,631 | 50.81% | 175 | 1.58% | -355 | -3.20% | 11,082 |
Hubbard | 4,741 | 41.81% | 6,444 | 56.83% | 155 | 1.37% | -1,703 | -15.02% | 11,340 |
Isanti | 7,883 | 40.82% | 11,190 | 57.94% | 240 | 1.24% | -3,307 | -17.12% | 19,313 |
Itasca | 13,290 | 54.54% | 10,705 | 43.93% | 372 | 1.52% | 2,585 | 10.61% | 24,367 |
Jackson | 2,652 | 45.89% | 3,024 | 52.33% | 103 | 1.78% | -372 | -6.44% | 5,779 |
Kanabec | 3,592 | 43.55% | 4,527 | 54.89% | 129 | 1.56% | -935 | -11.34% | 8,248 |
Kandiyohi | 9,337 | 43.74% | 11,704 | 54.82% | 308 | 1.45% | -2,367 | -11.08% | 21,349 |
Kittson | 1,333 | 49.70% | 1,307 | 48.73% | 42 | 1.57% | 26 | 0.97% | 2,682 |
Koochiching | 3,662 | 50.10% | 3,539 | 48.42% | 108 | 1.48% | 123 | 1.68% | 7,309 |
Lac qui Parle | 2,390 | 52.63% | 2,093 | 46.09% | 58 | 1.27% | 297 | 6.54% | 4,541 |
Lake | 4,212 | 59.57% | 2,769 | 39.16% | 90 | 1.27% | 1,433 | 20.41% | 7,071 |
Lake of the Woods | 921 | 38.38% | 1,428 | 59.50% | 51 | 2.13% | -507 | -21.12% | 2,400 |
Le Sueur | 6,466 | 44.83% | 7,746 | 53.70% | 212 | 1.46% | -1,280 | -8.87% | 14,424 |
Lincoln | 1,558 | 46.62% | 1,736 | 51.94% | 48 | 1.44% | -178 | -5.32% | 3,342 |
Lyon | 5,292 | 41.76% | 7,203 | 56.84% | 178 | 1.40% | -1,911 | -15.08% | 12,673 |
McLeod | 6,712 | 36.45% | 11,407 | 61.95% | 293 | 1.60% | -4,695 | -25.50% | 18,412 |
Mahnomen | 1,339 | 53.39% | 1,132 | 45.14% | 37 | 1.48% | 207 | 8.25% | 2,508 |
Marshall | 2,308 | 41.50% | 3,187 | 57.30% | 67 | 1.21% | -879 | -15.80% | 5,562 |
Martin | 4,590 | 41.55% | 6,311 | 57.13% | 146 | 1.33% | -1,721 | -15.58% | 11,047 |
Meeker | 5,292 | 42.91% | 6,854 | 55.57% | 188 | 1.52% | -1,562 | -12.66% | 12,334 |
Mille Lacs | 5,677 | 43.45% | 7,194 | 55.06% | 194 | 1.48% | -1,517 | -11.61% | 13,065 |
Morrison | 6,794 | 40.54% | 9,698 | 57.87% | 266 | 1.59% | -2,904 | -17.33% | 16,758 |
Mower | 12,334 | 60.99% | 7,591 | 37.54% | 297 | 1.47% | 4,743 | 23.45% | 20,222 |
Murray | 2,218 | 44.38% | 2,719 | 54.40% | 61 | 1.22% | -501 | -10.02% | 4,998 |
Nicollet | 8,797 | 49.59% | 8,689 | 48.98% | 255 | 1.43% | 108 | 0.61% | 17,741 |
Nobles | 3,898 | 42.35% | 5,159 | 56.05% | 147 | 1.60% | -1,261 | -13.70% | 9,204 |
Norman | 1,954 | 51.29% | 1,794 | 47.09% | 62 | 1.62% | 160 | 4.20% | 3,810 |
Olmsted | 33,285 | 46.50% | 37,371 | 52.21% | 919 | 1.29% | -4,086 | -5.71% | 71,575 |
Otter Tail | 12,038 | 37.41% | 19,734 | 61.33% | 406 | 1.26% | -7,696 | -23.92% | 32,178 |
Pennington | 3,117 | 44.42% | 3,767 | 53.68% | 133 | 1.89% | -650 | -9.26% | 7,017 |
Pine | 7,228 | 49.79% | 7,033 | 48.44% | 257 | 1.78% | 195 | 1.35% | 14,518 |
Pipestone | 1,900 | 37.76% | 3,066 | 60.93% | 66 | 1.31% | -1,166 | -23.17% | 5,032 |
Polk | 6,729 | 42.95% | 8,724 | 55.68% | 215 | 1.37% | -1,995 | -12.73% | 15,668 |
Pope | 3,301 | 49.27% | 3,303 | 49.30% | 96 | 1.43% | -2 | -0.03% | 6,700 |
Ramsey | 171,846 | 63.04% | 97,096 | 35.62% | 3,635 | 1.34% | 74,750 | 27.42% | 272,577 |
Red Lake | 963 | 44.24% | 1,164 | 53.47% | 50 | 2.29% | -201 | -9.23% | 2,177 |
Redwood | 3,104 | 38.14% | 4,898 | 60.18% | 137 | 1.68% | -1,794 | -22.04% | 8,139 |
Renville | 3,787 | 45.36% | 4,430 | 53.06% | 132 | 1.58% | -643 | -7.70% | 8,349 |
Rice | 16,425 | 53.42% | 13,881 | 45.15% | 439 | 1.43% | 2,544 | 8.27% | 30,745 |
Rock | 2,000 | 38.53% | 3,111 | 59.93% | 80 | 1.54% | -1,111 | -21.40% | 5,191 |
Roseau | 2,442 | 30.87% | 5,355 | 67.69% | 114 | 1.44% | -2,913 | -36.82% | 7,911 |
St. Louis | 77,958 | 65.20% | 40,112 | 33.55% | 1,495 | 1.25% | 37,846 | 31.65% | 119,565 |
Scott | 23,958 | 39.51% | 36,055 | 59.46% | 626 | 1.03% | -12,097 | -19.95% | 60,639 |
Sherburne | 15,816 | 38.15% | 25,182 | 60.75% | 456 | 1.10% | -9,366 | -22.60% | 41,454 |
Sibley | 3,109 | 39.11% | 4,669 | 58.74% | 171 | 2.15% | -1,560 | -19.63% | 7,949 |
Stearns | 32,659 | 43.21% | 41,726 | 55.21% | 1,192 | 1.58% | -9,067 | -12.00% | 75,577 |
Steele | 7,994 | 42.76% | 10,389 | 55.57% | 312 | 1.67% | -2,395 | -12.81% | 18,695 |
Stevens | 2,821 | 47.42% | 3,030 | 50.93% | 98 | 1.64% | -209 | -3.51% | 5,949 |
Swift | 3,165 | 55.19% | 2,481 | 43.26% | 89 | 1.55% | 684 | 11.93% | 5,735 |
Todd | 5,034 | 41.21% | 6,945 | 56.86% | 235 | 1.92% | -1,911 | -15.65% | 12,214 |
Traverse | 1,026 | 47.92% | 1,076 | 50.26% | 39 | 1.82% | -50 | -2.34% | 2,141 |
Wabasha | 5,548 | 46.88% | 6,120 | 51.71% | 167 | 1.41% | -572 | -4.83% | 11,835 |
Wadena | 2,791 | 39.35% | 4,214 | 59.41% | 88 | 1.24% | -1,423 | -20.06% | 7,093 |
Waseca | 4,179 | 42.64% | 5,457 | 55.68% | 164 | 1.67% | -1,278 | -13.04% | 9,800 |
Washington | 61,395 | 47.80% | 65,751 | 51.19% | 1,303 | 1.01% | -4,356 | -3.39% | 128,449 |
Watonwan | 2,514 | 45.03% | 2,970 | 53.20% | 99 | 1.77% | -456 | -8.17% | 5,583 |
Wilkin | 1,169 | 33.14% | 2,303 | 65.30% | 55 | 1.56% | -1,134 | -32.16% | 3,527 |
Winona | 14,231 | 51.90% | 12,686 | 46.26% | 505 | 1.84% | 1,545 | 5.64% | 27,422 |
Wright | 22,618 | 37.99% | 36,176 | 60.77% | 740 | 1.24% | -13,558 | -22.78% | 59,534 |
Yellow Medicine | 2,799 | 48.61% | 2,878 | 49.98% | 81 | 1.40% | -79 | -1.37% | 5,758 |
Totals | 1,445,014 | 51.09% | 1,346,695 | 47.61% | 36,678 | 1.40% | 98,319 | 3.48% | 2,828,387 |
Despite losing the state, Bush won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]
District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 51% | 47% | Gil Gutknecht |
2nd | 54% | 45% | John Kline |
3rd | 51% | 48% | Jim Ramstad |
4th | 37% | 62% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 28% | 71% | Martin Olav Sabo |
6th | 57% | 42% | Mark Kennedy |
7th | 55% | 43% | Collin Peterson |
8th | 46% | 53% | Jim Oberstar |
Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state.
All ten were pledged for the Kerry/Edwards ticket, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for "John Ewards" for president, while also correctly spelling Edwards' name for vice president.[10][11] Regardless of the error, the ballot was officially tabulated as an electoral vote for Edwards in both offices.[12] As the electors cast secret ballots, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known. In 2016, Jean Schiebel toldMinnPost that she and some of her fellow electors had an inkling who it was, but declined to publicly identify anyone.[10] The same article also noted that another ballot had both Kerry and Edwards' names written on the line for president, but this did not affect how the vote was interpreted.[10]
As a result of the erroneous vote, Minnesota state law was amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes, and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged.[10][13]
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