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2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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Main article:2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota

← 2000November 2, 20042008 →
Turnout78.77%[1]Increase
 
NomineeJohn KerryGeorge W. Bush
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Running mateJohn EdwardsDick Cheney
Electoral vote9[a]0
Popular vote1,445,0141,346,695
Percentage51.09%47.61%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Kerry

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Bush

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Elections in Minnesota
Presidential elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections

The2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose ten representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Minnesota was won by Democratic nomineeJohn Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a majorswing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically ablue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election wasRichard Nixon in1972. However, in2000Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.4%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as afaithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot forJohn Edwards (written asJohn Ewards), his running mate.

Caucuses

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean D
Cook Political ReportTossup
Research 2000Lean D
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington PostTossup
Washington DispatchLikely D
Washington TimesTossup
The New York TimesTossup
CNNLikely D
NewsweekTossup
Associated PressLean D
Rasmussen ReportsTossup

Polling

[edit]

Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll byRasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3.[3] The last poll average byReal Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%.[4] Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.

Fundraising

[edit]

Bush raised $2,507,181.[5] Kerry raised $2,635,150.[6]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Both tickets visited the state 7 times.[7] A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.[8]

Analysis

[edit]
Kerry on the campaign trail inRochester, Minnesota

Minnesota is the state with the longest streak as ablue state, having last backed the Republican presidential nominee inRichard Nixon's1972 landslide, and even sticking with the Democrats duringRonald Reagan's two landslides in1980 and1984. However, in2000 and 2004 it was considered a battleground state. Both campaigns invested resources in it, and it ultimately stayed in the Democratic column both times but by relatively narrow margins.

In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had eitherBush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts:Minnesota's 4th congressional district,Minnesota's 5th congressional district, andMinnesota's 8th congressional district.

As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last election in whichWashington County,Olmsted County, andDakota County voted for the Republican candidate. This was the first time since1928 that a Republican had won a majority inAnoka County. Bush became the first ever Republican to win theWhite House without carryingNicollet County.

Results

[edit]
2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic (DFL)John Kerry1,445,01451.09%9
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush (Inc.)1,346,69547.61%0
IndependentRalph Nader18,6830.66%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik4,6390.16%0
GreenDavid Cobb4,4080.16%0
ConstitutionMichael Peroutka3,0740.11%0
IndependentWrite Ins2,5300.09%0
Christian FreedomThomas Harens2,3870.08%0
Socialist EqualityBill Van Auken5390.02%0
Socialist WorkersRoger Calero4160.01%0
Socialist Party USA (Write-in)Walt Brown (Write-in)20.00%0
Democratic (DFL)John Edwards00.00%1
Totals2,828,387100.00%10
Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population)74.2%

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn Kerry
DFL
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Aitkin4,53948.02%4,76850.44%1451.53%-229-2.42%9,452
Anoka80,22646.09%91,85352.77%1,9871.14%-11,627-6.68%174,066
Becker6,75640.21%9,79558.30%2501.49%-3,039-18.09%16,801
Beltrami10,59250.13%10,23748.45%3021.43%3551.68%21,131
Benton8,05943.84%10,04354.63%2821.43%-1,984-10.79%18,384
Big Stone1,53650.08%1,48348.35%481.57%531.73%3,067
Blue Earth16,86550.92%15,73747.52%5171.56%1,1283.40%33,119
Brown5,15837.44%8,39560.93%2251.63%-3,237-23.49%13,778
Carlton11,46262.52%6,64236.23%2301.25%4,82026.29%18,334
Carver16,45636.24%28,51062.78%4450.98%-12,054-26.54%45,411
Cass6,83542.96%8,87555.78%2001.26%-2,040-12.82%15,910
Chippewa3,42451.83%3,08946.76%931.41%3355.07%6,606
Chisago12,21943.24%15,70555.57%3361.19%-3,486-12.33%28,260
Clay12,98946.83%14,36551.79%3831.38%-1,376-4.96%27,737
Clearwater1,87142.90%2,43855.90%521.19%-567-13.00%4,361
Cook1,73352.47%1,48945.08%812.45%2447.39%3,303
Cottonwood2,72642.80%3,55755.85%861.36%-831-13.05%6,369
Crow Wing14,00541.75%19,10656.96%4341.29%-5,101-15.21%33,545
Dakota104,63548.48%108,95950.48%2,2521.04%-4,324-2.00%215,846
Dodge4,11741.72%5,59356.68%1581.60%-1,476-14.96%9,868
Douglas8,21940.47%11,79358.07%2971.46%-3,574-17.60%20,309
Faribault3,76743.39%4,79455.22%1201.38%-1,027-11.83%8,681
Fillmore5,82549.79%5,69448.67%1791.53%1311.12%11,698
Freeborn9,73355.09%7,68143.48%2521.43%2,05211.61%17,666
Goodhue12,10347.26%13,13451.29%3711.45%-1,031-4.03%25,608
Grant1,85648.60%1,89349.57%701.83%-37-0.97%3,819
Hennepin383,84159.33%255,13339.43%8,0071.24%128,70819.90%646,981
Houston5,27647.61%5,63150.81%1751.58%-355-3.20%11,082
Hubbard4,74141.81%6,44456.83%1551.37%-1,703-15.02%11,340
Isanti7,88340.82%11,19057.94%2401.24%-3,307-17.12%19,313
Itasca13,29054.54%10,70543.93%3721.52%2,58510.61%24,367
Jackson2,65245.89%3,02452.33%1031.78%-372-6.44%5,779
Kanabec3,59243.55%4,52754.89%1291.56%-935-11.34%8,248
Kandiyohi9,33743.74%11,70454.82%3081.45%-2,367-11.08%21,349
Kittson1,33349.70%1,30748.73%421.57%260.97%2,682
Koochiching3,66250.10%3,53948.42%1081.48%1231.68%7,309
Lac qui Parle2,39052.63%2,09346.09%581.27%2976.54%4,541
Lake4,21259.57%2,76939.16%901.27%1,43320.41%7,071
Lake of the Woods92138.38%1,42859.50%512.13%-507-21.12%2,400
Le Sueur6,46644.83%7,74653.70%2121.46%-1,280-8.87%14,424
Lincoln1,55846.62%1,73651.94%481.44%-178-5.32%3,342
Lyon5,29241.76%7,20356.84%1781.40%-1,911-15.08%12,673
McLeod6,71236.45%11,40761.95%2931.60%-4,695-25.50%18,412
Mahnomen1,33953.39%1,13245.14%371.48%2078.25%2,508
Marshall2,30841.50%3,18757.30%671.21%-879-15.80%5,562
Martin4,59041.55%6,31157.13%1461.33%-1,721-15.58%11,047
Meeker5,29242.91%6,85455.57%1881.52%-1,562-12.66%12,334
Mille Lacs5,67743.45%7,19455.06%1941.48%-1,517-11.61%13,065
Morrison6,79440.54%9,69857.87%2661.59%-2,904-17.33%16,758
Mower12,33460.99%7,59137.54%2971.47%4,74323.45%20,222
Murray2,21844.38%2,71954.40%611.22%-501-10.02%4,998
Nicollet8,79749.59%8,68948.98%2551.43%1080.61%17,741
Nobles3,89842.35%5,15956.05%1471.60%-1,261-13.70%9,204
Norman1,95451.29%1,79447.09%621.62%1604.20%3,810
Olmsted33,28546.50%37,37152.21%9191.29%-4,086-5.71%71,575
Otter Tail12,03837.41%19,73461.33%4061.26%-7,696-23.92%32,178
Pennington3,11744.42%3,76753.68%1331.89%-650-9.26%7,017
Pine7,22849.79%7,03348.44%2571.78%1951.35%14,518
Pipestone1,90037.76%3,06660.93%661.31%-1,166-23.17%5,032
Polk6,72942.95%8,72455.68%2151.37%-1,995-12.73%15,668
Pope3,30149.27%3,30349.30%961.43%-2-0.03%6,700
Ramsey171,84663.04%97,09635.62%3,6351.34%74,75027.42%272,577
Red Lake96344.24%1,16453.47%502.29%-201-9.23%2,177
Redwood3,10438.14%4,89860.18%1371.68%-1,794-22.04%8,139
Renville3,78745.36%4,43053.06%1321.58%-643-7.70%8,349
Rice16,42553.42%13,88145.15%4391.43%2,5448.27%30,745
Rock2,00038.53%3,11159.93%801.54%-1,111-21.40%5,191
Roseau2,44230.87%5,35567.69%1141.44%-2,913-36.82%7,911
St. Louis77,95865.20%40,11233.55%1,4951.25%37,84631.65%119,565
Scott23,95839.51%36,05559.46%6261.03%-12,097-19.95%60,639
Sherburne15,81638.15%25,18260.75%4561.10%-9,366-22.60%41,454
Sibley3,10939.11%4,66958.74%1712.15%-1,560-19.63%7,949
Stearns32,65943.21%41,72655.21%1,1921.58%-9,067-12.00%75,577
Steele7,99442.76%10,38955.57%3121.67%-2,395-12.81%18,695
Stevens2,82147.42%3,03050.93%981.64%-209-3.51%5,949
Swift3,16555.19%2,48143.26%891.55%68411.93%5,735
Todd5,03441.21%6,94556.86%2351.92%-1,911-15.65%12,214
Traverse1,02647.92%1,07650.26%391.82%-50-2.34%2,141
Wabasha5,54846.88%6,12051.71%1671.41%-572-4.83%11,835
Wadena2,79139.35%4,21459.41%881.24%-1,423-20.06%7,093
Waseca4,17942.64%5,45755.68%1641.67%-1,278-13.04%9,800
Washington61,39547.80%65,75151.19%1,3031.01%-4,356-3.39%128,449
Watonwan2,51445.03%2,97053.20%991.77%-456-8.17%5,583
Wilkin1,16933.14%2,30365.30%551.56%-1,134-32.16%3,527
Winona14,23151.90%12,68646.26%5051.84%1,5455.64%27,422
Wright22,61837.99%36,17660.77%7401.24%-13,558-22.78%59,534
Yellow Medicine2,79948.61%2,87849.98%811.40%-79-1.37%5,758
Totals1,445,01451.09%1,346,69547.61%36,6781.40%98,3193.48%2,828,387
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Bush won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st51%47%Gil Gutknecht
2nd54%45%John Kline
3rd51%48%Jim Ramstad
4th37%62%Betty McCollum
5th28%71%Martin Olav Sabo
6th57%42%Mark Kennedy
7th55%43%Collin Peterson
8th46%53%Jim Oberstar

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state.

  1. Sonja Berg
  2. Vi Grooms-Alban
  3. Matthew Little
  4. Michael Meuers
  5. Tim O'Brien
  6. Lil Ortendahl
  7. Everett Pettiford
  8. Jean Schiebel
  9. Frank Simon
  10. Chandler Harrison Stevens

All ten were pledged for the Kerry/Edwards ticket, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for "John Ewards" for president, while also correctly spelling Edwards' name for vice president.[10][11] Regardless of the error, the ballot was officially tabulated as an electoral vote for Edwards in both offices.[12] As the electors cast secret ballots, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known. In 2016, Jean Schiebel toldMinnPost that she and some of her fellow electors had an inkling who it was, but declined to publicly identify anyone.[10] The same article also noted that another ballot had both Kerry and Edwards' names written on the line for president, but this did not affect how the vote was interpreted.[10]

As a result of the erroneous vote, Minnesota state law was amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes, and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged.[10][13]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Although John Kerry won Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, 1faithless elector voted for John Edwards (written as John Ewards) instead of Kerry

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State".www.sos.state.mn.us. RetrievedJuly 22, 2017.
  2. ^"Archived copy".dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived fromthe original on November 21, 2010. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^"2004 Presidential Election Polls. Minnesota Polls". US Election Atles.
  4. ^"RealClear Politics - Polls". Archived fromthe original on July 6, 2004.
  5. ^"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. ^"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. ^"CNN.com Specials".CNN.
  8. ^"CNN.com Specials".CNN.
  9. ^"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  10. ^abcdGihring, Tim (December 15, 2016)."The enduring mystery of America's last 'faithless elector'".MinnPost. RetrievedNovember 21, 2024.
  11. ^"MPR: Minnesota elector gives Edwards a vote; Kerry gets other nine".
  12. ^"2004 Electoral College Results".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedNovember 21, 2024.
  13. ^"208.08, 2008 Minnesota Statutes". Revisor.leg.state.mn.us. Archived fromthe original on September 27, 2011. RetrievedMay 5, 2009.
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