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 County results Congressional district results
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The2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbentRepublicanPresidentGeorge W. Bush and hisrunning mate,Vice PresidentDick Cheney, againstDemocratic challenger andSenator fromMassachusettsJohn F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator fromNorth CarolinaJohn Edwards. Sixthird parties were also on the ballot.
Iowa was won by PresidentGeorge W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state toAl Gorefour years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this aswing state. TheDemocrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000, when Gore had won the state by only 0.32 percentage points, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In1988, DemocratMichael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, andBill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in1992 and 10.34% in1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along withNew Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by narrow margins. Iowa was one of two states to be won by George W. Bush in at least one of his presidential runs that his fatherGeorge H. W. Bush never carried, the other being West Virginia.
Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa sinceRonald Reagan had done so in1984. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican won Iowa by only a plurality. Until2020, this was the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboringWisconsin. This election marked a new streak of Iowa voting for the winning ticket in every election along withFlorida andOhio until 2020, when all three voted for the losing candidate. With Iowa, Florida, and Ohio's winning streaks no longer being intact,Wisconsin,Michigan, andPennsylvania are now all tied for the longest streaks of siding with the winner, all three of which most recently failing to do so when they backed Kerry during his losing presidential bid in 2004.
Bush is also the only US president to win the White House without Iowa and then carry it upon winning re-election. This is the opposite ofWoodrow Wilson andFDR, the only two presidents to have carried Iowa upon winning office but lost it upon winning re-election.[a]
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Toss-up |
| CNN | Likely R(flip) |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
| Newsweek | Lean R(flip) |
| New York Times | Lean R(flip) |
| Rasmussen Reports | Toss-up |
| Research 2000 | Lean D |
| Washington Post | Toss-up |
| Washington Times | Toss-up |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory.[2] The finalRealClearPolitics average gaveBush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% toKerry at 47.1% andNader at 1.0%.[3]
Bush raised $671,335.[4] Kerry raised $449,980.[5]
The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times.[6] Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.[7]
Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly populated counties ofPolk (Des Moines),Linn (Cedar Rapids),Scott (Davenport),Johnson (Iowa City), andBlack Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980s.[8] He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, includingDubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The1st and2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented byRepublicans inCongress.[9]Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, andMuscatine.[10]
However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. Additionally, he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was inSioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide.[11] Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50–50 margin, despite re-electing DemocratLeonard Boswell to Congress. The4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete5th district in the western part of the state was home to Iowa's most Republican areas, having electedSteve King to Congress in2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin.
In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000.[12] This election coincided with the2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, whereRepublicanChuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote.[13]
Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting forBarack Obama by 9.54% in2008 and 5.81% in2012. However, it would return to the Republican column since then whenDonald Trump won the state by 9.41% in2016 and 8.30% in2020. In2024, Trump won the state by 13.21%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state sinceRonald Reagan's in1980.
| 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush(incumbent) | Richard Cheney(incumbent) | 751,957 | 49.90% | 7 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | John Edwards | 741,898 | 49.23% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Peter Camejo | 5,973 | 0.40% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | Richard Campagna | 2,992 | 0.20% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | Chuck Baldwin | 1,304 | 0.09% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | Pat LaMarche | 1,141 | 0.08% | 0 | |
| N/A | Write-ins | – | 1,094 | 0.07% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | James Harris | Margaret Trowe | 373 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Socialist Equality | Bill Van Auken | Jim Lawrence | 176 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,506,908 | 100% | 7 | |||
| Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) | 67%/76% | |||||
| County | George W. Bush Republican | John Kerry Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adair | 2,402 | 56.15% | 1,844 | 43.10% | 32 | 0.75% | 558 | 13.05% | 4,278 |
| Adams | 1,317 | 56.65% | 977 | 42.02% | 31 | 1.33% | 340 | 14.63% | 2,325 |
| Allamakee | 3,530 | 49.99% | 3,449 | 48.84% | 83 | 1.18% | 81 | 1.15% | 7,062 |
| Appanoose | 3,340 | 51.78% | 3,063 | 47.49% | 47 | 0.73% | 277 | 4.29% | 6,450 |
| Audubon | 1,958 | 54.51% | 1,608 | 44.77% | 26 | 0.73% | 350 | 9.74% | 3,592 |
| Benton | 6,658 | 49.31% | 6,747 | 49.97% | 96 | 0.72% | -89 | -0.66% | 13,501 |
| Black Hawk | 28,046 | 43.89% | 35,392 | 55.38% | 469 | 0.73% | -7,346 | -11.49% | 63,907 |
| Boone | 6,870 | 49.04% | 7,027 | 50.16% | 112 | 0.80% | -157 | -1.12% | 14,009 |
| Bremer | 6,665 | 52.16% | 6,025 | 47.15% | 89 | 0.70% | 640 | 5.01% | 12,779 |
| Buchanan | 4,797 | 45.79% | 5,608 | 53.54% | 70 | 0.67% | -811 | -7.75% | 10,475 |
| Buena Vista | 4,887 | 57.56% | 3,520 | 41.46% | 83 | 0.98% | 1,367 | 16.10% | 8,490 |
| Butler | 4,417 | 59.09% | 3,001 | 40.15% | 57 | 0.76% | 1,416 | 18.94% | 7,475 |
| Calhoun | 3,255 | 58.73% | 2,243 | 40.47% | 44 | 0.80% | 1,012 | 18.26% | 5,542 |
| Carroll | 5,762 | 54.75% | 4,689 | 44.56% | 73 | 0.69% | 1,073 | 10.19% | 10,524 |
| Cass | 4,796 | 63.58% | 2,679 | 35.52% | 68 | 0.90% | 2,117 | 28.06% | 7,543 |
| Cedar | 4,869 | 50.23% | 4,747 | 48.97% | 78 | 0.80% | 122 | 1.26% | 9,694 |
| Cerro Gordo | 10,960 | 44.71% | 13,372 | 54.54% | 184 | 0.75% | -2,412 | -9.83% | 24,516 |
| Cherokee | 3,758 | 55.30% | 2,988 | 43.97% | 50 | 0.73% | 770 | 11.33% | 6,796 |
| Chickasaw | 3,040 | 44.67% | 3,708 | 54.48% | 58 | 0.86% | -668 | -9.81% | 6,806 |
| Clarke | 2,200 | 48.18% | 2,323 | 50.88% | 43 | 0.94% | -123 | -2.70% | 4,566 |
| Clay | 4,898 | 57.03% | 3,547 | 41.30% | 143 | 1.67% | 1,351 | 15.73% | 8,588 |
| Clayton | 4,312 | 47.03% | 4,736 | 51.66% | 120 | 1.31% | -424 | -4.63% | 9,168 |
| Clinton | 10,666 | 43.21% | 13,813 | 55.96% | 205 | 0.83% | -3,147 | -12.75% | 24,684 |
| Crawford | 3,955 | 54.61% | 3,220 | 44.46% | 67 | 0.92% | 735 | 10.15% | 7,242 |
| Dallas | 15,183 | 57.75% | 10,917 | 41.52% | 193 | 0.74% | 4,266 | 16.23% | 26,293 |
| Davis | 2,148 | 54.82% | 1,731 | 44.18% | 39 | 1.00% | 417 | 10.64% | 3,918 |
| Decatur | 2,088 | 52.06% | 1,859 | 46.35% | 64 | 1.59% | 229 | 5.71% | 4,011 |
| Delaware | 4,908 | 53.35% | 4,227 | 45.95% | 65 | 0.71% | 681 | 7.40% | 9,200 |
| Des Moines | 8,221 | 39.38% | 12,456 | 59.67% | 197 | 0.94% | -4,235 | -20.29% | 20,874 |
| Dickinson | 5,337 | 55.87% | 4,140 | 43.34% | 76 | 0.80% | 1,197 | 12.53% | 9,553 |
| Dubuque | 20,100 | 42.73% | 26,561 | 56.46% | 382 | 0.81% | -6,461 | -13.73% | 47,043 |
| Emmet | 2,697 | 52.31% | 2,405 | 46.64% | 54 | 1.04% | 292 | 5.67% | 5,156 |
| Fayette | 5,128 | 49.35% | 5,185 | 49.89% | 79 | 0.76% | -57 | -0.54% | 10,392 |
| Floyd | 3,745 | 45.86% | 4,349 | 53.25% | 73 | 0.89% | -604 | -7.39% | 8,167 |
| Franklin | 3,128 | 56.66% | 2,340 | 42.38% | 53 | 0.96% | 788 | 14.28% | 5,521 |
| Fremont | 2,362 | 60.39% | 1,510 | 38.61% | 39 | 1.00% | 852 | 21.78% | 3,911 |
| Greene | 2,618 | 51.20% | 2,459 | 48.09% | 36 | 0.70% | 159 | 3.11% | 5,113 |
| Grundy | 4,429 | 64.67% | 2,386 | 34.84% | 34 | 0.50% | 2,043 | 29.83% | 6,849 |
| Guthrie | 3,325 | 55.47% | 2,614 | 43.61% | 55 | 0.92% | 711 | 11.86% | 5,994 |
| Hamilton | 4,367 | 52.39% | 3,895 | 46.73% | 73 | 0.88% | 472 | 5.66% | 8,335 |
| Hancock | 3,368 | 57.04% | 2,484 | 42.07% | 53 | 0.89% | 884 | 14.97% | 5,905 |
| Hardin | 4,875 | 54.48% | 4,015 | 44.87% | 59 | 0.66% | 860 | 9.61% | 8,949 |
| Harrison | 4,680 | 60.94% | 2,906 | 37.84% | 94 | 1.23% | 1,774 | 23.10% | 7,680 |
| Henry | 5,220 | 55.20% | 4,127 | 43.64% | 110 | 1.16% | 1,093 | 11.56% | 9,457 |
| Howard | 2,028 | 43.18% | 2,614 | 55.65% | 55 | 1.17% | -586 | -12.47% | 4,697 |
| Humboldt | 3,162 | 59.10% | 2,146 | 40.11% | 42 | 0.79% | 1,016 | 18.99% | 5,350 |
| Ida | 2,342 | 62.06% | 1,415 | 37.49% | 17 | 0.45% | 927 | 24.57% | 3,774 |
| Iowa | 4,544 | 53.75% | 3,841 | 45.43% | 69 | 0.82% | 703 | 8.32% | 8,454 |
| Jackson | 4,242 | 42.37% | 5,656 | 56.50% | 113 | 1.13% | -1,414 | -14.13% | 10,011 |
| Jasper | 9,462 | 47.16% | 10,430 | 51.99% | 170 | 0.84% | -968 | -4.83% | 20,062 |
| Jefferson | 3,648 | 44.05% | 4,490 | 54.22% | 143 | 1.73% | -842 | -10.17% | 8,281 |
| Johnson | 22,715 | 34.75% | 41,847 | 64.01% | 811 | 1.24% | -19,132 | -29.26% | 65,373 |
| Jones | 4,834 | 48.45% | 5,054 | 50.65% | 90 | 0.90% | -220 | -2.20% | 9,978 |
| Keokuk | 3,119 | 56.92% | 2,294 | 41.86% | 67 | 1.22% | 825 | 15.06% | 5,480 |
| Kossuth | 5,042 | 54.46% | 4,132 | 44.63% | 84 | 0.91% | 910 | 9.83% | 9,258 |
| Lee | 7,472 | 41.84% | 10,152 | 56.85% | 234 | 1.32% | -2,680 | -15.01% | 17,858 |
| Linn | 49,442 | 44.65% | 60,442 | 54.58% | 856 | 0.77% | -11,000 | -9.93% | 110,740 |
| Louisa | 2,572 | 52.32% | 2,297 | 46.72% | 47 | 0.96% | 275 | 5.60% | 4,916 |
| Lucas | 2,543 | 55.63% | 1,987 | 43.47% | 41 | 0.90% | 556 | 12.16% | 4,571 |
| Lyon | 4,751 | 77.87% | 1,303 | 21.36% | 47 | 0.77% | 3,448 | 56.51% | 6,101 |
| Madison | 4,538 | 56.70% | 3,380 | 42.23% | 86 | 1.07% | 1,158 | 14.47% | 8,004 |
| Mahaska | 6,858 | 63.93% | 3,790 | 35.33% | 80 | 0.74% | 3,068 | 28.60% | 10,728 |
| Marion | 9,990 | 59.83% | 6,574 | 39.37% | 132 | 0.79% | 3,416 | 20.46% | 16,696 |
| Marshall | 9,557 | 49.87% | 9,443 | 49.27% | 164 | 0.85% | 114 | 0.60% | 19,164 |
| Mills | 4,556 | 65.65% | 2,308 | 33.26% | 76 | 1.10% | 2,248 | 32.39% | 6,940 |
| Mitchell | 2,646 | 48.28% | 2,785 | 50.82% | 49 | 0.90% | -139 | -2.54% | 5,480 |
| Monona | 2,575 | 51.32% | 2,397 | 47.77% | 46 | 0.92% | 178 | 3.55% | 5,018 |
| Monroe | 2,067 | 52.16% | 1,855 | 46.81% | 41 | 1.03% | 212 | 5.35% | 3,963 |
| Montgomery | 3,601 | 64.81% | 1,899 | 34.18% | 56 | 1.01% | 1,702 | 30.63% | 5,556 |
| Muscatine | 9,020 | 48.19% | 9,542 | 50.98% | 155 | 0.83% | -522 | -2.79% | 18,717 |
| O'Brien | 5,328 | 68.92% | 2,330 | 30.14% | 73 | 0.95% | 2,998 | 38.78% | 7,731 |
| Osceola | 2,295 | 70.27% | 934 | 28.60% | 37 | 1.14% | 1,361 | 41.67% | 3,266 |
| Page | 5,243 | 69.79% | 2,211 | 29.43% | 59 | 0.78% | 3,032 | 40.36% | 7,513 |
| Palo Alto | 2,674 | 51.51% | 2,482 | 47.81% | 35 | 0.68% | 192 | 3.70% | 5,191 |
| Plymouth | 7,810 | 63.90% | 4,278 | 35.00% | 134 | 1.09% | 3,532 | 28.90% | 12,222 |
| Pocahontas | 2,441 | 56.60% | 1,822 | 42.24% | 50 | 1.16% | 619 | 14.36% | 4,313 |
| Polk | 95,828 | 47.29% | 105,218 | 51.93% | 1,572 | 0.77% | -9,390 | -4.64% | 202,618 |
| Pottawattamie | 24,558 | 58.72% | 16,906 | 40.43% | 356 | 0.85% | 7,652 | 18.29% | 41,820 |
| Poweshiek | 4,965 | 49.20% | 5,043 | 49.98% | 83 | 0.83% | -78 | -0.78% | 10,091 |
| Ringgold | 1,466 | 52.77% | 1,286 | 46.29% | 26 | 0.93% | 180 | 6.48% | 2,778 |
| Sac | 3,128 | 58.21% | 2,215 | 41.22% | 31 | 0.57% | 913 | 16.99% | 5,374 |
| Scott | 39,958 | 48.30% | 42,122 | 50.92% | 642 | 0.77% | -2,164 | -2.62% | 82,722 |
| Shelby | 4,256 | 63.81% | 2,355 | 35.31% | 59 | 0.88% | 1,901 | 28.50% | 6,670 |
| Sioux | 14,229 | 85.87% | 2,259 | 13.63% | 82 | 0.49% | 11,970 | 72.24% | 16,570 |
| Story | 20,819 | 46.63% | 23,296 | 52.17% | 537 | 1.20% | -2,477 | -5.54% | 44,652 |
| Tama | 4,456 | 49.51% | 4,487 | 49.85% | 58 | 0.65% | -31 | -0.34% | 9,001 |
| Taylor | 1,908 | 59.81% | 1,252 | 39.25% | 30 | 0.93% | 656 | 20.56% | 3,190 |
| Union | 3,165 | 52.94% | 2,747 | 45.95% | 66 | 1.10% | 418 | 6.99% | 5,978 |
| Van Buren | 2,211 | 57.64% | 1,568 | 40.88% | 57 | 1.48% | 643 | 16.76% | 3,836 |
| Wapello | 7,403 | 44.31% | 9,125 | 54.62% | 179 | 1.07% | -1,722 | -10.31% | 16,707 |
| Warren | 12,160 | 52.75% | 10,730 | 46.54% | 163 | 0.70% | 1,430 | 6.21% | 23,053 |
| Washington | 5,977 | 55.92% | 4,595 | 42.99% | 116 | 1.08% | 1,382 | 12.93% | 10,688 |
| Wayne | 1,733 | 55.31% | 1,379 | 44.02% | 21 | 0.67% | 354 | 11.29% | 3,133 |
| Webster | 8,959 | 48.09% | 9,561 | 51.32% | 111 | 0.60% | -602 | -3.23% | 18,631 |
| Winnebago | 3,175 | 53.34% | 2,707 | 45.48% | 70 | 1.17% | 468 | 7.86% | 5,952 |
| Winneshiek | 5,324 | 49.37% | 5,354 | 49.65% | 106 | 0.98% | -30 | -0.28% | 10,784 |
| Woodbury | 22,451 | 50.80% | 21,455 | 48.55% | 289 | 0.66% | 996 | 2.25% | 44,195 |
| Worth | 1,795 | 43.54% | 2,286 | 55.45% | 42 | 1.01% | -491 | -11.91% | 4,123 |
| Wright | 3,631 | 54.99% | 2,930 | 44.37% | 42 | 0.63% | 701 | 10.62% | 6,603 |
| Totals | 751,957 | 49.90% | 741,898 | 49.23% | 13,053 | 0.87% | 10,059 | 0.67% | 1,506,908 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Bush won three of five congressional districts, including one held by aDemocrat.Kerry won two held by Republicans.[14]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46% | 53% | Jim Nussle |
| 2nd | 44% | 55% | Jim Leach |
| 3rd | 49.7% | 49.6% | Leonard Boswell |
| 4th | 51% | 48% | Tom Latham |
| 5th | 60% | 39% | Steve King |
Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.[15]
State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
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