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2004 United States presidential election

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For related races, see2004 United States elections.

2004 United States presidential election

← 2000November 2, 20042008 →

538 members of theElectoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
Turnout60.1%[1]Increase 5.9pp
 
NomineeGeorge W. BushJohn Kerry
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateTexasMassachusetts
Running mateDick CheneyJohn Edwards
Electoral vote286251[a]
States carried3119 +DC
Popular vote62,040,610[2]59,028,444[2]
Percentage50.7%48.3%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

2004 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 200020042008 →

Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 2, 2004. IncumbentRepublican presidentGeorge W. Bush and hisrunning mate, incumbent vice presidentDick Cheney, were elected to a second term. They narrowly defeated theDemocratic ticket ofMassachusetts senatorJohn Kerry andNorth Carolina senatorJohn Edwards.

Bush and Cheney wererenominated by their party with no difficulty. Meanwhile, the Democrats engaged in acompetitive primary. Kerry emerged as the early front-runner but was faced with serious opposition by formerVermont governorHoward Dean, who briefly surged ahead of Kerry in the polls. Kerry won the first set of primaries in January and re-emerged as the front-runner, and Dean dropped out in February. Kerry clinched his party's nomination in March after a series of primary victories over runner-up Edwards, whom he ultimately selected to be his running mate.

TheSeptember 11 attacks in 2001 decisively reshaped Bush'sforeign policy goals and garnered him near-universal support early in his term. However, by 2004 his management of thewar on terror attracted serious debate, particularly over his handling of the2003 invasion of Iraq. Bush presented himself as a decisive leader and attacked Kerry as a "flip-flopper"; Kerry hadvoted to authorize the invasion, but criticized Bush's conduct of theIraq War. Domestic issues were debated as well, includingthe economy and jobs,health care,abortion,same-sex marriage, andembryonic stem cell research.

Bush won by a narrow margin of 35electoral votes and took 50.7% of the popular vote. Bush sweptthe South and theMountain states and took the crucialswing states ofOhio,Iowa, andNew Mexico, the last two flipping Republican. Although Kerry flippedNew Hampshire, Bush won both more electoral votes and states than in 2000. Ohio was thetipping-point state, and was considered to be the state that allowed Bush to win reelection. Some aspects of the election process weresubject to controversy, although not to the degree seen in the2000 presidential election. Bush wonFlorida by a 5% margin, a significant improvement over his razor-thin victory margin in the state four years earlier that had led to a legal challenge inBush v. Gore. This remains the most recent presidential election in which the Republican candidate wonColorado,New Mexico, andVirginia.

At the time, Bush received the most popular votes in history; this record went on to be broken in2008. Bush's win was the only Republican popular vote victory during the eight elections from1992 to2020. Since1984, Bush is the only incumbent Republican president to have won a second term and since1988, the only Republican presidential candidate to have won a majority of the popular vote.[b] This is also the most recent election where a male Democratic presidential candidate lost, and is the last time any of the major parties have had a native-bornSoutherner on the presidential ticket.

Background

George W. Bush won the presidency in2000 after theU.S. Supreme Court's decision inBush v. Gore remanded the case to theFlorida Supreme Court, which declared there was not sufficient time to hold a recount without violating theU.S. Constitution. Just eight months into Bush's presidency, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, suddenly transformed him into a wartime president. His approval ratings surged to near 90%. Within a month, the forces of a coalition led by the United Statesentered Afghanistan, which had been shelteringOsama bin Laden, suspected mastermind of the September 11 attacks. TheTaliban had been removed by December, although a long reconstruction would follow.

TheBush administration then turned its attention toIraq and argued the need to removeSaddam Hussein from power in Iraq had become urgent. Amongthe stated reasons were that Saddam's regime had tried to acquirenuclear material and had not properly accounted forbiological andchemical material it was known to have previously possessed. Both the possession of theseweapons of mass destruction (WMD), and the failure to account for them, would violatethe UN sanctions. The assertion about WMD was hotly advanced by the Bush administration from the beginning, but other major powers including China, France, Germany, and Russia remained unconvinced that Iraq was a threat and refused to allow passage of a UN Security Council resolution to authorize the use of force.[3] Iraq permitted UN weapon inspectors in November 2002, who were continuing their work to assess the WMD claim when the Bush administration decided to proceed with war without UN authorization and told the inspectors to leave the country.[4] The United States invaded Iraq on March 20, 2003, along with a "coalition of the willing" that consisted of additional troops from the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent, from Australia and Poland. Within about three weeks, the invasion caused the collapse of both the Iraqi government and itsarmed forces; however, the U.S. and allied forces failed to find anyweapon of mass destruction in Iraq. Nevertheless, on May 1, Bush landed on the aircraft carrierUSS Abraham Lincoln, in aLockheedS-3 Viking, where he gavea speech announcing the end of "major combat operations" in theIraq War.[5]

Nominations

Republican nomination

Main articles:George W. Bush 2004 presidential campaign,2004 Republican Party presidential primaries, and2004 Republican National Convention
This article is part of
a series about
George W. Bush


46th Governor of Texas






George W. Bush's signature
Republican Party (United States)
Republican Party (United States)
2004 Republican Party ticket
George W. BushDick Cheney
for Presidentfor Vice President
43rd
President of the United States
(2001–2009)
46th
Vice President of the United States
(2001–2009)
Campaign

Bush was able to ward off any serious challenge to the Republican nomination. SenatorLincoln Chafee from Rhode Island considered challenging Bush on an anti-war platform inNew Hampshire but decided not to run after the capture ofSaddam Hussein in December 2003.[6] On March 10, 2004, Bush officially attained the number of delegates needed to be nominated at the2004 Republican National Convention in New York City. He accepted the nomination on September 2, 2004, and retainedVice PresidentDick Cheney as hisrunning mate. During the convention and throughout the campaign, Bush focused on two themes: defending America against terrorism and building anownership society. The ownership society included allowing people to invest some of theirSocial Security in the stock market, increasing home and stock ownership, and encouraging more people to buy their ownhealth insurance.[7]

Democratic Party nomination

Main articles:John Kerry 2004 presidential campaign,2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries, and2004 Democratic National Convention
Democratic Party (United States)
Democratic Party (United States)
2004 Democratic Party ticket
John KerryJohn Edwards
for Presidentfor Vice President
U.S. Senator
fromMassachusetts
(1985–2013)
U.S. Senator
fromNorth Carolina
(1999–2005)
Campaign

Withdrawn candidates

Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote from the primaries
John EdwardsHoward DeanDennis KucinichWesley ClarkAl SharptonJoe LiebermanCarol Moseley
Braun
Dick Gephardt
 U.S. Senator from
North Carolina
(1999–2005)
79th
Governor of Vermont
(1991–2003)
U.S. Representative fromOhio
(1997–2013)
Supreme Allied
Commander Europe
(1997–2000)
Minister and ActivistU.S. Senator
fromConnecticut
(1989–2013)
U.S. Senator
fromIllinois
(1993–1999)
House Minority Leader
(1995–2003)
CampaignCampaignCampaignCampaignCampaignCampaignCampaignCampaign
W: March 2
3,162,337 votes
W: Feb 18
903,460 votes
W: July 22
620,242votes
W: Feb 11
547,369 votes
W: March 15
380,865votes
W: Feb 3
280,940votes
W: Jan 15
98,469votes
W: Jan 20
63,902 votes

Democratic primaries

Senator Kerry at a primary rally in St. Louis, Missouri, at the St. Louis Community College – Forest Park

The2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries took place from January 14 to June 8, 2004, to select theDemocratic Party's nominee for president. Before the primaries, Vermont governorHoward Dean was a favorite to win the nomination; however, Massachusetts senatorJohn Kerry won victories in two early races: theIowa caucuses and theNew Hampshire primary. These wins strengthened Kerry's previously weak campaign.[8] By March 11, Kerry had received enough delegates to win the nomination.[9] Other major candidates included North Carolina senatorJohn Edwards and retired U.S. Army generalWesley Clark. Kerry asked Republican senatorJohn McCain to be his running mate but McCain turned down his offer.[10] On July 6, Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate, shortly before the2004 Democratic National Convention was held later that month inBoston.[11]

Democratic National Convention

Heading into the convention, the Kerry–Edwards ticket unveiled its new slogan: a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world".[12] Kerry made hisVietnam War experience the convention's prominent theme.[13] The keynote address at the convention was delivered byIllinois state senator and U.S. Senate candidate and future presidentBarack Obama; the speech was well received, and it elevated Obama's status within the Democratic Party.[14]

Other nominations

David Cobb, theGreen Party candidate
Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik
See also:List of candidates in the United States presidential election, 2004

There were four other presidential tickets on the ballot in a number of states totaling enough electoral votes to have a theoretical possibility of winning a majority in theElectoral College. They were:

Issues unique to the election

Electronic voting machines

Ahead of the 2004 election, some states implementedelectronic voting systems. Critics raised several issues about voting machines, particularly those made byDiebold Election Systems. Cybersecurity professionals found security vulnerabilities in Diebold machines.[19] Voting machines made by several companies were also criticized for their lack of apaper trail, which would have made results easier to verify.[19] Democrats also criticized various executives atDiebold, Inc. (the parent company of Diebold Election Systems) for their support of Bush's campaign, stating that it constituted aconflict of interest.[19] Following these issues,California banned the use of Diebold's AccuVote TSX voting machines for elections in 2004.[20]

Campaign law changes

The 2004 election was the first to be affected by thecampaign finance reforms mandated by theBipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002. The act created restrictions on fundraising by political parties and candidates. A large number of independent527 groups were created to bypass these restrictions.[21] Named for a section of theInternal Revenue Code, these groups were able to raise large amounts of money for various political causes as long as they did not coordinate their activities with political campaigns. Examples of 527s includeSwift Boat Veterans for Truth,MoveOn.org, theMedia Fund, andAmerica Coming Together. These groups were active throughout the campaign season, spending a record $556 million for all elections in 2004.[22]

TheStand by Your Ad provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act required political advertisements on television to include a verbal disclaimer identifying the organization or campaign responsible for the advertisement. This provision was intended to force campaigns to take responsibility fornegative advertisements.[23] Campaign strategists criticized this requirement, stating that it would waste time and cause voters to be confused.[23]

General election campaign

Campaign issues

See also:Political positions of George W. Bush

Bush focused his campaign on national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader and contrasted Kerry as a "flip-flopper." This strategy was designed to convey to American voters the idea that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be "uncertain in the face of danger."[24] In the final months before the election, Kerry's campaign focused on domestic issues such as the economy and health care. Kerry's campaign managers believed that Kerry had an advantage on domestic issues.[25] Bush's campaign also focused on increasingvoter turnout among conservatives.[26] According to one exit poll, people who voted for Bush cited the issues of terrorism and traditional values as the most important factors in their decision.[27] Kerry supporters cited the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, and health care.[27]

Bush speaking at campaign rally in St. Petersburg, Florida, October 19, 2004

Economy

See also:Economic policy of the George W. Bush administration

Tax cuts were passed in 2001 and 2003 under the Bush administration with Bush's support. Kerry voted against these tax cuts.[28] During the 2004 campaign, Bush praised these tax cuts, stating that they helped to grow the economy.[29] On the other hand, Kerry attacked Bush for failing to create jobs under his presidency.[30] Kerry stated that he wanted to reduce theUnited States budget deficit by capping government spending while ending varioustax breaks for businesses.[29] Kerry also supported tax credits for businesses that hire additional workers.[30] Bush attacked Kerry for his economic proposals, stating that they would cause Americans to pay higher taxes. Bush also attacked Kerry for previously supporting tax raises, such as a proposed increase on thefederal gas tax.[28]

Foreign policy

See also:Foreign policy of the George W. Bush administration

Bush defended the Iraq War, arguing that it was necessary to stop terrorism. He also said that the United States had made progress stopping terrorism in other nations.[31] Bush attacked Kerry for opposing the Iraq War after voting to authorize it in 2002, characterizing the shift as one of manyflip-flops by Kerry.[32] Kerry argued that Bush had misled the American public in pursuing the Iraq War, noting that no illegal weapons had been found in Iraq. He said that the Iraq War was a mistake[33] and a diversion from terrorism in other nations such as Afghanistan.[34] After the election, exit polls found that foreign policy concerns were the most important issues for voters.[35]

John Kerry at a Oakland Rally on January 27, 2004

Health care

Health savings accounts (HSAs) were introduced in 2004 as part of theMedicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act, signed by Bush in December 2003.[36] As part of his 2004 campaign, Bush supported the expansion of HSAs. He proposed tax cuts to help Americans purchase their own health insurance. He also proposed a plan that would allow small businesses to purchase health insurance in large groups. Kerry's health care proposals included government subsidies for businesses that provide health insurance and the expansion of government-run health care programs.[37] Health policy experts stated that Bush's proposals would have a more limited impact than Kerry's proposals.[38][39] Kerry also attacked Bush for his policy onstem cell research. In 2001, the Bush administration restricted embryonic stem cell research to existingstem cell lines. Kerry stated that this restriction was a barrier to conducting important research.[40]

Same-sex marriage

In July 2004, Bush announced his support fora Constitutional amendment to bansame-sex marriage, shortly before the Senate voted on the amendment. Although Kerry stated that he opposed same-sex marriage, he also opposed the amendment, saying that the legality of same-sex marriage should be decided by individual states.[41] The Senate vote failed on July 14.[42]

Controversies

Bush military service controversy

Main article:George W. Bush military service controversy

During the campaign, Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in theTexas Air National Guard.[43] A scandal occurred atCBS News after they aired a segment on60 Minutes Wednesday, introducing what became known as theKillian documents. These documents were allegedly written by Jerry B. Killian, Bush's squadron commander, and they contained various allegations about Bush's service.[44] Serious doubts about thedocuments' authenticity quickly emerged,[45] leading CBS to appoint a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and other significant staffing changes.[46][47] The Killian documents were eventually concluded to be forgeries.[48]

Kerry military service controversy

Main article:John Kerry military service controversy

Kerry was accused by theSwift Vets and POWs for Truth of distorting his military service in Vietnam.[49] The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by theU.S. Navy, and the disposition of his discharge. The organization spent $22.4 million in advertisements against Kerry. After the election, political analysts described their advertising campaign as effective.[22] The termswiftboating was used during the campaign to describe the organization's negative advertising, which Democrats saw as unfair. It was also used after the campaign to generally describe a harsh attack by a political opponent that is dishonest, personal and unfair.[50]

Presidential debates

Neighboring yard signs for Bush and Kerry in Grosse Pointe, Michigan
Main article:2004 United States presidential debates

Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate were organized by theCommission on Presidential Debates, and held in the autumn of 2004.

Debates among candidates for the 2004 U.S. presidential election
No.DateHostCityModeratorsParticipantsViewship

(Millions)

P1Thursday, September 30, 2004University of MiamiCoral Gables, FloridaJim LehrerPresident George W. Bush
Senator John Kerry
62.4[51]
VPTuesday, October 5, 2004Case Western Reserve UniversityCleveland, OhioGwen IfillVice President Dick Cheney
Senator John Edwards
43.5[51]
P2Friday, October 8, 2004Washington University in St. LouisSt. Louis, MissouriCharles GibsonPresident George W. Bush
Senator John Kerry
46.7[51]
P3Wednesday, October 13, 2004Arizona State UniversityTempe, ArizonaBob SchiefferPresident George W. Bush
Senator John Kerry
51.1
  • Map of United States showing debate locations
    University of Miami Coral Gables, FL
    University of Miami
    Coral Gables, FL
    Case Western Reserve University Cleveland, OH
    Case Western Reserve University
    Cleveland, OH
    Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis, MO
    Washington University in St. Louis
    St. Louis, MO
    Arizona State University Tempe, AZ
    Arizona State University
    Tempe, AZ
    Sites of the 2004 general election debates
    The first debate was held on September 30, slated to focus on foreign policy. A consensus formed among mainstream pollsters and pundits that Kerry won the debate decisively, strengthening what had come to be seen as a weak and troubled campaign.[52]
  • On October 5, the vice presidential debate between Cheney and Edwards. An initial poll byABC indicated a victory for Cheney, while polls byCNN andMSNBC gave it to Edwards.[53][54][55][56]
  • The second presidential debate was conducted in a town meeting format, less formal than the first presidential debate. This debate saw Bush and Kerry taking questions on a variety of subjects from a local audience.[57]
  • Bush and Kerry met for the third and final debate on October 13.[58] 51 million viewers watched the debate. After Kerry, responding to a question about gay rights, reminded the audience thatVice President Cheney's daughter was alesbian, Cheney responded with a statement calling himself "a pretty angry father" due to Kerry using Cheney's daughter's sexual orientation for his political purposes.[59] Polls taken by Gallup in found that Kerry pulled ahead in October, but showed a tight race as the election drew to a close.[60]

Osama bin Laden videotape

Main article:2004 Osama bin Laden video

On October 29, four days before the election, excerpts of a video ofOsama bin Laden addressing the American people were broadcast onal Jazeera. In his remarks, bin Laden mentions theSeptember 11 attacks, and taunted Bush over his response to them. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry increased by several points.[61]

Electoral College forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecastersThe Cook Political Report,The New York Times, andCNN.

StateEVsNew York Times
November 2,
2004
[62]
538
November 2,
2004
[62]
CNN
November 2,
2004
[62]
Arkansas6Likely RLikely RLean R
Arizona10Likely RLikely RLean R
Colorado9Likely RLean RLean R
Delaware3Likely DLikely DLean D
Florida27Likely RTossupTossup
Iowa7Likely R(flip)TossupLean R(flip)
Maryland10Likely DLikely DSafe D
Maine4Likely DLean DLean D
Michigan17Likely DLean DLean D
Minnesota10Likely DTossupTossup
New Hampshire4Likely D(flip)TossupTossup
Missouri11Likely RLean RLean R
Nevada5Likely RTossupLean R
New Jersey15Likely DLikely DLean D
New Mexico5Lean R(flip)TossupTossup
North Carolina15Likely RLean RSafe R
Ohio20Lean D(flip)TossupTossup
Pennsylvania21Likely DTossupLean D
Oregon7Likely DLean DLean D
Tennessee11Likely RLean RSafe R
Wisconsin10Likely R(flip)TossupTossup
West Virginia5Likely RLean RLikely R
Virginia13Likely RLean RLean R

Timeline

Main article:Timeline of the 2004 United States presidential election

Results

Electoral results
Presidential candidatePartyHome statePopular voteElectoral
vote
Running mate
CountPercentageVice-presidential candidateHome stateElectoral vote
George W. Bush (incumbent)RepublicanTexas62,040,61050.73%286Dick Cheney (incumbent)Wyoming286
John KerryDemocraticMassachusetts59,028,44448.27%251John EdwardsNorth Carolina251
John Edwards(a)DemocraticNorth Carolina00.00%1John EdwardsNorth Carolina1
Ralph NaderReformConnecticut465,6500.38%0Peter Camejo(b)California0
Michael BadnarikLibertarianTexas397,2650.32%0Richard CampagnaIowa0
Michael PeroutkaConstitutionMaryland143,6300.12%0Chuck BaldwinFlorida0
David CobbGreenTexas119,8590.10%0Pat LaMarcheMaine0
Leonard PeltierPeace and FreedomPennsylvania27,6070.02%0Janice JordanCalifornia0
Walt BrownSocialistOregon10,8370.01%0Mary Alice HerbertVermont0
Róger Calero(c)Socialist WorkersNew York3,6890.01%0Arrin Hawkins(c)Minnesota0
Thomas HarensChristian FreedomMinnesota2,3870.002%0 Jennifer RyanMinnesota0
Other50,6520.04%Other
Total122,290,630100%538538
Needed to win270270

Source (Electoral and Popular Vote):Federal Elections Commission Electoral and Popular Vote SummaryVoting age population: 215,664,000

Percent of voting age population casting a vote for president: 56.70%

(a)Onefaithless elector fromMinnesota cast an electoral vote for John Edwards (written as John Ewards) for president.[63]
(b)In Montana, Karen Sanchirico was listed on the ballot as Nader's running mate, not Camejo. In Alabama, Jan D. Pierce was Nader's running mate. In New York, Nader appeared on two distinct tickets, one with Camejo and one with Pierce.[64]
(c)BecauseArrin Hawkins, then aged 28, wasconstitutionally ineligible to serve as vice president,Margaret Trowe replaced her on the ballot in some states.James Harris replaced Calero on certain other states' ballots.

Popular vote
Bush
50.73%
Kerry
48.27%
Nader
0.38%
Badnarik
0.32%
Peroutka
0.12%
Others
0.17%
Electoral vote
Bush
53.16%
Kerry
46.65%
Edwards
0.19%

Results by state

Of the 3,154 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, Bush won the popular vote in 2,568 (81.42%) while Kerry carried 586 (18.58%). The following table records the official vote tallies for each state as reported by theofficial Federal Election Commission report. The column labeled "Margin" shows Bush's margin of victory over Kerry (the margin is negative for states and districts won by Kerry).

Legend
States/districts won byKerry/Edwards
States/districts won byBush/Cheney
At-large results (for states that split electoral votes)
George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Ralph Nader
Independent / Reform
Michael Badnarik
Libertarian
Michael Peroutka
Constitution
David Cobb
Green
OthersMarginMargin
Swing[c]
State Total
StateEV#%EV#%EV#%EV#%EV#%EV#%EV#%EV#%%#
Alabama91,176,39462.46%9693,93336.84%6,7010.36%3,5290.19%1,9940.11%00.00%8980.05%482,46125.62%10.70%1,883,449AL
Alaska3190,88961.07%3111,02535.52%5,0691.62%1,6750.54%2,0920.67%1,0580.34%7900.25%79,86425.55%−5.40%312,598AK
Arizona101,104,29454.87%10893,52444.40%2,7730.14%11,8560.59%00.00%1380.01%00.00%210,77010.47%4.18%2,012,585AZ
Arkansas6572,89854.31%6469,95344.55%6,1710.58%2,3520.22%2,0830.20%1,4880.14%00.00%102,9459.76%4.32%1,054,945AR
California555,509,82644.36%6,745,48554.30%5521,2130.17%50,1650.40%26,6450.21%40,7710.33%27,7470.22%−1,235,659−9.94%1.85%12,421,852CA
Colorado91,101,25551.69%91,001,73247.02%12,7180.60%7,6640.36%2,5620.12%1,5910.07%2,8080.13%99,5234.67%−3.69%2,130,330CO
Connecticut7693,82643.95%857,48854.31%712,9690.82%3,3670.21%1,5430.10%9,5640.61%120.00%−163,662−10.36%7.10%1,578,769CT
Delaware3171,66045.75%200,15253.35%32,1530.57%5860.16%2890.08%2500.07%1000.03%−28,492−7.60%5.47%375,190DE
District of Columbia321,2569.34%202,97089.18%31,4850.65%5020.22%00.00%7370.32%6360.28%−181,714−79.84%−3.64%227,586DC
Florida273,964,52252.10%273,583,54447.09%32,9710.43%11,9960.16%6,6260.09%3,9170.05%6,2340.08%380,9785.01%5.00%7,609,810FL
Georgia151,914,25457.97%151,366,14941.37%2,2310.07%18,3870.56%5800.02%2280.01%460.00%548,10516.60%4.91%3,301,875GA
Hawaii4194,19145.26%231,70854.01%400.00%1,3770.32%00.00%1,7370.40%00.00%−37,517−8.75%9.59%429,013HI
Idaho4409,23568.38%4181,09830.26%1,1150.19%3,8440.64%3,0840.52%580.01%130.00%228,13738.12%−1.41%598,447ID
Illinois212,345,94644.48%2,891,55054.82%213,5710.07%32,4420.62%4400.01%2410.00%1320.00%−545,604−10.34%1.67%5,274,322IL
Indiana111,479,43859.94%11969,01139.26%1,3280.05%18,0580.73%00.00%1020.00%650.00%510,42720.68%5.05%2,468,002IN
Iowa7751,95749.90%7741,89849.23%5,9730.40%2,9920.20%1,3040.09%1,1410.08%1,6430.11%10,0590.67%0.98%1,506,908IA
Kansas6736,45662.00%6434,99336.62%9,3480.79%4,0130.34%2,8990.24%330.00%140.00%301,46325.38%4.58%1,187,756KS
Kentucky81,069,43959.55%8712,73339.69%8,8560.49%2,6190.15%2,2130.12%00.00%220.00%356,70619.86%4.73%1,795,882KY
Louisiana91,102,16956.72%9820,29942.22%7,0320.36%2,7810.14%5,2030.27%1,2760.07%4,3460.22%281,87014.50%6.83%1,943,106LA
Maine2330,20144.58%396,84253.57%28,0691.09%1,9650.27%7350.10%2,9360.40%40.00%−66,641−8.99%−3.89%740,752ME
Maine-11165,82443.14%211,70355.07%14,0041.04%1,0470.27%3460.09%1,4680.38%−45,879−11.93%−4.01%384,392ME1
Maine-21164,37746.13%185,13951.95%14,0651.14%9180.26%3890.11%1,4680.41%−20,762−5.83%−3.96%356,356ME2
Maryland101,024,70342.93%1,334,49355.91%1011,8540.50%6,0940.26%3,4210.14%3,6320.15%2,4810.10%−309,790−12.98%3.41%2,386,678MD
Massachusetts121,071,10936.78%1,803,80061.94%124,8060.17%15,0220.52%00.00%10,6230.36%7,0280.24%−732,691−25.16%2.14%2,912,388MA
Michigan172,313,74647.81%2,479,18351.23%1724,0350.50%10,5520.22%4,9800.10%5,3250.11%1,4310.03%−165,437−3.42%1.71%4,839,252MI
Minnesota101,346,69547.61%1,445,01451.09%918,6830.66%4,6390.16%3,0740.11%4,4080.16%5,8740.21%−98,319−3.48%−1.08%2,828,387MN
Mississippi6684,98159.45%6458,09439.76%3,1770.28%1,7930.16%1,7590.15%1,0730.09%1,2680.11%226,88719.69%2.77%1,152,145MS
Missouri111,455,71353.30%111,259,17146.10%1,2940.05%9,8310.36%5,3550.20%00.00%00.00%196,5427.20%3.86%2,731,364MO
Montana3266,06359.07%3173,71038.56%6,1681.37%1,7330.38%1,7640.39%9960.22%110.00%92,35320.51%−4.57%450,445MT
Nebraska2512,81465.90%2254,32832.68%5,6980.73%2,0410.26%1,3140.17%9780.13%1,0130.13%258,48633.22%4.23%778,186NE
Nebraska-11169,88862.97%196,31435.70%2,0250.75%6560.24%4050.15%4530.17%300.01%73,57427.27%4.29%269,771NE1
Nebraska-21153,04160.24%197,85838.52%1,7310.68%8130.32%3050.12%2610.10%230.01%55,18321.72%3.32%254,032NE2
Nebraska-31189,88574.92%160,15623.73%1,9420.77%5720.23%6040.24%2640.10%290.01%129,72951.19%4.77%253,452NE3
Nevada5418,69050.47%5397,19047.88%4,8380.58%3,1760.38%1,1520.14%8530.10%3,6880.44%21,5002.59%−0.96%829,587NV
New Hampshire4331,23748.87%340,51150.24%44,4790.66%3720.05%1610.02%00.00%9780.14%−9,274−1.37%−2.64%677,738NH
New Jersey151,670,00346.24%1,911,43052.92%1519,4180.54%4,5140.12%2,7500.08%1,8070.05%1,7690.05%−241,427−6.68%9.15%3,611,691NJ
New Mexico5376,93049.84%5370,94249.05%4,0530.54%2,3820.31%7710.10%1,2260.16%00.00%5,9880.79%0.85%756,304NM
New York312,962,56740.08%4,314,28058.37%3199,8731.35%11,6070.16%2070.00%870.00%2,4150.03%−1,351,713−18.29%6.69%7,391,036NY
North Carolina151,961,16656.02%151,525,84943.58%1,8050.05%11,7310.34%00.00%1080.00%3480.01%435,31712.44%−0.40%3,501,007NC
North Dakota3196,65162.86%3111,05235.50%3,7561.20%8510.27%5140.16%00.00%90.00%85,59927.36%−0.24%312,833ND
Ohio202,859,76850.81%202,741,16748.71%00.00%14,6760.26%11,9390.21%1920.00%1660.00%118,6012.10%−1.40%5,627,908OH
Oklahoma7959,79265.57%7503,96634.43%00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%00.00%455,82631.14%9.26%1,463,758OK
Oregon7866,83147.19%943,16351.35%700.00%7,2600.40%5,2570.29%5,3150.29%8,9560.49%−76,332−4.16%−3.72%1,836,782OR
Pennsylvania212,793,84748.42%2,938,09550.92%212,6560.05%21,1850.37%6,3180.11%6,3190.11%1,1700.02%−144,248−2.50%1.67%5,769,590PA
Rhode Island4169,04638.67%259,76559.42%44,6511.06%9070.21%3390.08%1,3330.30%1,0930.25%−90,719−20.75%8.33%437,134RI
South Carolina8937,97457.98%8661,69940.90%5,5200.34%3,6080.22%5,3170.33%1,4880.09%2,1240.13%276,27517.08%1.14%1,617,730SC
South Dakota3232,58459.91%3149,24438.44%4,3201.11%9640.25%1,1030.28%00.00%00.00%83,34021.47%−1.26%388,215SD
Tennessee111,384,37556.80%111,036,47742.53%8,9920.37%4,8660.20%2,5700.11%330.00%60.00%347,89814.27%10.41%2,437,319TN
Texas344,526,91761.09%342,832,70438.22%9,1590.12%38,7870.52%1,6360.02%1,0140.01%5480.01%1,694,21322.87%1.54%7,410,765TX
Utah5663,74271.54%5241,19926.00%11,3051.22%3,3750.36%6,8410.74%390.00%1,3430.14%422,54345.54%5.05%927,844UT
Vermont3121,18038.80%184,06758.94%34,4941.44%1,1020.35%00.00%00.00%1,4660.47%−62,887−20.14%−10.20%312,309VT
Virginia131,716,95953.68%131,454,74245.48%2,3930.07%11,0320.34%10,1610.32%1040.00%2,9760.09%262,2178.20%0.16%3,198,367VA
Washington111,304,89445.64%1,510,20152.82%1123,2830.81%11,9550.42%3,9220.14%2,9740.10%1,8550.06%−205,307−7.18%−1.60%2,859,084WA
West Virginia5423,77856.06%5326,54143.20%4,0630.54%1,4050.19%820.01%50.00%130.00%97,23712.86%6.54%755,887WV
Wisconsin101,478,12049.32%1,489,50449.70%1016,3900.55%6,4640.22%00.00%2,6610.09%3,8680.13%−11,384−0.38%−0.16%2,997,007WI
Wyoming3167,62968.86%370,77629.07%2,7411.13%1,1710.48%6310.26%00.00%4800.20%96,85339.79%−0.27%243,428WY
U.S Total53862,040,61050.73%28659,028,44448.27%251465,1510.38%397,2650.32%143,6300.12%119,8590.10%99,8870.08%3,012,1662.46%2.98%122,290,630US

AlthoughGuam has no votes in the Electoral College, it has held a straw poll for its presidential preference since 1980. In 2004, the results were Bush 21,490 (64.1%), Kerry 11,781 (35.1%), Nader 196 (0.58%) and Badnarik 67 (0.2%).[65] Maine and Nebraska each allowed for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes were awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote was awarded to the winner of each congressional district.[66][67]

States that flipped Democratic to Republican

States that flipped Republican to Democratic

Close states

Red font color denotes those won by Republican President George W. Bush; blue denotes states won by Democrat John Kerry.

States where margin of victory was under 1% (22 electoral votes):

  1. Wisconsin 0.38% (11,384 votes)
  2. Iowa 0.67% (10,059 votes)
  3. New Mexico 0.79% (5,988 votes)

States where margin of victory was more than 1% but less than 5% (93 electoral votes):

  1. New Hampshire 1.37% (9,274 votes)
  2. Ohio 2.10% (118,601 votes)(tipping point state)
  3. Pennsylvania 2.50% (144,248 votes)
  4. Nevada 2.59% (21,500 votes)
  5. Michigan 3.42% (165,437 votes)
  6. Minnesota 3.48% (98,319 votes)
  7. Oregon 4.16% (76,332 votes)
  8. Colorado 4.67% (99,523 votes)

States where margin of victory was more than 5% but less than 10% (149 electoral votes):

  1. Florida 5.01% (380,978 votes)
  2. Maine's 2nd congressional district 5.83% (20,762 votes)
  3. New Jersey 6.68% (241,427 votes)
  4. Washington 7.18% (205,307 votes)
  5. Missouri 7.20% (196,542 votes)
  6. Delaware 7.60% (28,492 votes)
  7. Virginia 8.20% (262,217 votes)
  8. Hawaii 8.75% (37,517 votes)
  9. Maine 8.99% (66,641 votes)
  10. Arkansas 9.76% (102,945 votes)
  11. California 9.94% (1,235,659 votes)

Statistics

[68]

Counties with highest percent of vote (Republican)

  1. Ochiltree County, Texas 91.97%
  2. Madison County, Idaho 91.89%
  3. Glasscock County, Texas 91.56%
  4. Roberts County, Texas 90.93%
  5. Arthur County, Nebraska 90.23%

Counties with highest percent of vote (Democratic)

  1. Shannon County, South Dakota 84.62%
  2. City and County of San Francisco, California 83.02%
  3. Macon County, Alabama 82.92%
  4. Bronx County, New York 82.80%

Finance

These maps show the amount of attention given by the campaigns to the close states. At left, each waving hand represents a visit from a presidential or vice-presidential candidate during the final five weeks. At right, each dollar sign represents one million dollars spent on TV advertising by the campaigns during the same time period.

Money spent

Source: FEC[69]

Ballot access

Presidential ticketPartyBallot access
Bush / CheneyRepublican50+DC
Kerry / EdwardsDemocratic50+DC
Badnarik / CampagnaLibertarian48+DC
Peroutka / BaldwinConstitution36
Nader / CamejoIndependent, Reform34+DC
Cobb / LaMarcheGreen27+DC

2004 United States Electoral College

Main article:List of 2004 United States presidential electors

One elector in Minnesota cast a ballot for president with the name of "John Ewards" [sic] written on it.[70] The Electoral College officials certified this ballot as a vote for Edwards for president. The remaining nine electors cast ballots for Kerry. All ten electors in the state cast ballots for Edwards for vice president (Edwards's name was spelled correctly on all ballots for vice president).[71] This was the first time in U.S. history that an elector had cast a vote for the same person to be both president and vice president. Electoral balloting in Minnesota was performed by secret ballot, and none of the electors admitted to casting the Edwards vote for president, so it may never be known who thefaithless elector was. It is not even known whether the vote for Edwards was deliberate or unintentional; the Republican Secretary of State and several of the Democratic electors have expressed the opinion that this was an accident.[72]

Statistical analysis

Cheney visitedWashington & Jefferson College inPennsylvania on October 27, 2004[73]

During the campaign and as the results came in on the night of the election, there was much focus onOhio,Pennsylvania, andFlorida. These threeswing states were seen as evenly divided, and with each casting 20 electoral votes or more, they had the power to decide the election. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio.

Bush in theOval Office, receiving aconcession phone call from Kerry, which came the afternoon of the day following the election

The morning after the election, the winner was still undetermined. The result in Ohio would decide the winner, although the results inNew Mexico andIowa were also undetermined. Bush led in Ohio, but the state was still counting provisional ballots. In the afternoon of the day after the election, Ohio Secretary of StateKen Blackwell announced that there were roughly 135,000 provisional ballots remaining. Kerry's campaign believed that it was statistically impossible to erase Bush's lead. Faced with this announcement, Kerry conceded defeat.[74]

Bush became the first Republican to ever win without carrying New Hampshire, and the first to win the popular vote without Vermont and Illinois. This was the last time a president was re-elected to a consecutive term with a higher share of the electoral or popular vote. Bush carried Colorado despite the state being Kerry's birth state. Bush simultaneously lost his own birth state of Connecticut, making this the only election since 1864 where neither candidate carried their birth state. This election was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine, Illinois, Michigan, and California voted for the losing candidate in the popular vote, as well as the first since 1980 that Maryland did so, and the first since 1948 that Delaware did so. Bush's 2.4% popular vote margin is the smallest ever for a re-elected incumbent president, surpassing the 1812 election.

Bush won three states that have not voted Republican since: Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. Virginia had voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004 but conversely has voted Democratic in every election since 2008. In contrast, this is the last election in which the losing candidate won any of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is also the last time a Republican was elected without carrying Maine's 2nd congressional district. This election is the only time in history that every Northeastern state voted Democratic and every former Confederate state voted Republican in the same election. Thus, Bush is the only candidate to win without carrying any Northeastern electoral votes. Furthermore, this was the last election where both major party tickets consisted entirely of white men. This is also the last election where both parties flipped states and is also the most recent year when an incumbent candidate from either party would flip any states, with Bush taking the two which he did not win in 2000, in both Iowa since 1984 and New Mexico since 1988. This was the last election whereNevada voted Republican until 2024, and Florida, Iowa, and Ohio until 2016.

Until2024[update], this was the only presidential election since1988 in which the Republican nominee won the popular vote with a majority, and it remains the only presidential election since1984 in which the incumbent Republican president won a second consecutive term. Bush became the only incumbent president to win consecutive re-election after previously losing the popular vote. Bush also became the first president to win theElectoral College whilelosing the popular vote in a previous election but later winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote in a subsequent election.[d] Bush is the seventh Republican to have won re-election to a consecutive term, along withAbraham Lincoln,Ulysses S. Grant,William McKinley,Dwight D. Eisenhower,Richard Nixon, andRonald Reagan. The 2004 election had the highest turnout rate among eligible voters since1968.[75][76] This election was one of only four U.S. presidential elections held since the Democrats and Republicans became the two major parties in which the winner did not carry any of the threeRust Belt states ofMichigan,Pennsylvania, andWisconsin; the others were1884,1916, and2000, when Bush was first elected.[77]

This was the first presidential election since1988 where a candidate won a majority of thepopular vote. This was the last time a Republican candidate won the national popular vote untilDonald Trump in2024. This remains the most recent presidential election in which both major party candidates flipped at least one state. In addition, this was one of only two elections in the 21st century in which a candidate from either party won fewer than 20 states, with the other being 2024, whenKamala Harris also won 19 states. This is the most recent instance in which both major party tickets did not include a woman or a person of color. This, along with theprevious election would be the only ones between1980 and2024 where the winner won fewer than 300 electoral votes (or below 55% of the electoral college vote). This is also the last winning ticket that did not haveJoe Biden orDonald Trump on it.

Maps

  • Results by state with pie charts for the electoral college and popular vote.
    Results by state withpie charts for the electoral college and popular vote.
  • Presidential electoral votes by state. Red is Republican; blue is Democratic.
    Presidential electoral votes by state. Red is Republican; blue is Democratic.
  • Cartogram in which each square represents one electoral vote.
    Cartogram in which each square represents one electoral vote.
  • Presidential popular votes by county.[e]
    Presidential popular votes by county.[e]
  • Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.[e]
    Results by county, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.[e]
  • Results by county flips from 2000 to the 2004 presidential election[e]
    Results by county flips from 2000 to the 2004 presidential election[e]
  • County swing from 2000 to 2004[e]
    County swing from 2000 to 2004[e]
  • Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.
    Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.
  • Presidential popular votes cartogram, in which the sizes of counties have been rescaled according to their population.
    Presidential popular votescartogram, in which the sizes of counties have been rescaled according to their population.
  • Results by congressional district.
    Results by congressional district.

Voter demographics

2004 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroupKerryBushOther% of
total vote
Total vote48511100
Ideology
Liberals8613121
Moderates5445145
Conservatives1584134
Party
Democrats8911037
Republicans693137
Independents4948326
Gender
Men4455146
Women5148154
Marital status
Married4257163
Non-married5840237
Race
White4158177
Black8811111
Asian564312
Other564042
Hispanic544428
Religion
Protestant4059154
Catholic4752127
Jewish742513
Muslim93<1>61
Other742337
None6731210
Religious service attendance
More than weekly3564116
Weekly4158126
Monthly4950114
A few times a year5445128
Never6236215
White evangelical or born-again Christian?
White evangelical or born-again Christian2178123
Everyone else5643177
Age
18–29 years old5445117
30–44 years old4653129
45–59 years old4851130
60 and older4654024
First time voter?
First time voter5346111
Everyone else4851189
Sexual orientation
Gay, lesbian, or bisexual772214
Heterosexual4653196
Education
Not ahigh school graduate504914
High school graduate4752122
Somecollege education4654032
College graduate4652226
Postgraduate education5544116
Family income
Under $15,000633618
$15,000–30,0005742115
$30,000–50,0005049122
$50,000–75,0004356123
$75,000–100,0004555014
$100,000–150,0004257111
$150,000–200,000425804
Over $200,000356323
Union households
Union5940124
Non-union4455176
Military service
Veterans4157218
Non-veterans5049182
Issue regarded as most important
Moral values1880222
Economy8018220
Terrorism1486019
Iraq7326115
Health care772308
Taxes435705
Education732614
Region
Northeast5643122
Midwest4851126
South4258032
West5049120
Community size
Urban5445130
Suburban4752146
Rural4257125

Source:CNN exit poll (13,660 surveyed)[78]

Aftermath

Voting problems in Ohio

After the election, activists and election scholars criticized various issues with the election in Ohio. Long lines at polling places over seven hours were reported. An electronic voting machine erroneously gave thousands of extra votes to Bush.[79] ProfessorEdward B. Foley stated that he believed that Ohio's voting problems did not affect the outcome.[80]

Objections and conspiracy theories

Main article:2004 United States election voting controversies
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Map of election day problems reported to the Election Incident Reporting System

After the election, many blogs published false rumors claiming to show evidence that voter fraud had prevented Kerry from winning.[81][82] Although the overall result of the election was not challenged by the Kerry campaign, Green Party presidential candidateDavid Cobb and Libertarian Party presidential candidateMichael Badnarik obtained a recount inOhio. This recount was completed December 28, 2004, although on January 24, 2007, a jury convicted two Ohio elections officials of selecting precincts to recount where they already knew the hand total would match the machine total, thereby avoiding having to perform a full recount.[83] Independent candidateRalph Nader obtained a recount in 11 New Hampshire precincts that used Accuvote voting machines.[84]

At the officialcounting of the electoral votes on January 6, an objection was made under theElectoral Count Act (now3 U.S.C. § 15) to Ohio's electoral votes. Because the motion was supported by at least one member of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the law required that the two houses separate to debate and vote on the objection. In the House of Representatives, the objection was supported by 31 Democrats. It was opposed by 178 Republicans, 88 Democrats and one independent. Not voting were 52 Republicans and 80 Democrats.[85] Four people elected to the House had not yet taken office, and one seat was vacant. In the Senate, it was supported only by its maker,Barbara Boxer, with 74 senators opposed and 25 not voting. During the debate, no Senator argued that the outcome of the election should be changed by either court challenge or revote. Boxer claimed that she had made the motion not to challenge the outcome but "to cast the light of truth on a flawed system which must be fixed now".[86][87]

Kerry would later state that "the widespread irregularities make it impossible to know for certain that the [Ohio] outcome reflected the will of the voters". In the same article,Democratic National Committee ChairmanHoward Dean said: "I'm not confident that the election in Ohio was fairly decided... We know that there was substantial voter suppression, and the machines were not reliable. It should not be a surprise that the Republicans are willing to do things that are unethical to manipulate elections. That's what we suspect has happened."[88]

See also

Other elections


Notes

  1. ^A Democratic faithless elector from Minnesota voted for Edwards for both president and vice president. As a result, Kerry had 251 electoral votes instead of the pledged 252.
  2. ^In the2024 election, RepublicanDonald Trump won a plurality of the popular vote, but was 0.2% short of a majority.
  3. ^Percentage point difference in margin from the2000 election
  4. ^This feat would duplicated by RepublicanDonald Trump in2016 and 2024.
  5. ^abcdAlaska and Louisiana do not have counties. Alaska'sboroughs and census areas and Louisiana'sparishes are pictured.

References

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Sources

Books

  • Ceaser, James W. and Andrew E. Busch.Red Over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics (2005), narrative history.
  • Freeman, Steven F. andJoel Bleifuss, Foreword by U.S. Representative John Conyers, Jr.Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen? Exit Polls, Election Fraud, and the Official Count (Seven Stories Press, 2006)
  • Green, John C. andMark J. Rozell, eds.The Values Campaign?: The Christian Right and the 2004 Elections (2006)
  • Miller, Mark Crispin.Fooled Again: How the Right Stole the 2004 Election (2005) –
  • Sabato, Larry J.Divided States of America: The Slash And Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election (2005)
  • Stempel III, Guido H. and Thomas K. Hargrove, eds.The 21st-Century Voter: Who Votes, How They Vote, and Why They Vote (2 vol. 2015)

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