Movatterモバイル変換


[0]ホーム

URL:


Jump to content
WikipediaThe Free Encyclopedia
Search

2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina

← 1998November 2, 20042010 →
 
NomineeJim DeMintInez Tenenbaum
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote857,167704,384
Percentage53.67%44.10%

County results

DeMint:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

Tenenbaum:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Fritz Hollings
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim DeMint
Republican

Elections in South Carolina
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives

The2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbentDemocratic U.S. SenatorFritz Hollings retired, and RepublicanU.S. RepresentativeJim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879 and the first Republican ever to be popularly elected to this seat. Since DeMint took office in 2005, Republicans have held both of South Carolina’s Senate seats, which they had not done sinceReconstruction.

As of 2025, this is the last time the Democratic nominee for this Senate seat was white. This was also the last senate election in South Carolina to be won by single digits.

Democratic primary

[edit]

South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican.[1]Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Ben Frasier, former congressional aide

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined to run

[edit]

Results

[edit]
2004 South Carolina U.S. Senate Democratic primary election[7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticInez Tenenbaum126,72075.5%
DemocraticBen Frasier41,07024.5%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Defeated in primary

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

TheSenate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because theSouth Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with thegubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic SenatorFritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having PresidentBush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.

FormerGovernorDavid Beasley, from thePee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove theConfederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of astate lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of hisre-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.

The battle for second place in the primary was betweenUpstate congressman,Jim DeMint, andCharleston developerThomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish becauseCharlie Condon, a formerAttorney General of South Carolina, split theLowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.

In therunoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
Jim
DeMint
David
Beasley
Thomas
Ravenel
Charlie
Condon
Mark
McBride
Bob
Peeler
Undecided
SurveyUSA[11]June 18–20, 2004499 (LV)± 4.5%54%44%2%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12]June 10–14, 2004700 (LV)46%42%12%
SurveyUSA[13]June 12–14, 2004527 (LV)± 4.4%47%48%5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12]June 7, 200442%48%10%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[14][15]June 9–10, 2004300 (LV)± 5.8%38%47%15%
SurveyUSA[16]June 4–6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%20%38%23%12%7%
SurveyUSA[17]May 22–24, 2004421 (LV)± 4.9%21%43%17%16%3%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[18]May 11, 2004467 (LV)± 4.7%18%40%11%9%22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[12]May 200433%54%10%
SurveyUSA[19][20]April 26–28, 2004427 (LV)± 4.9%27%38%19%16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[21]February 4–5, 2004716 (LV)± 3.8%13%41%9%15%2%20%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[22]January 2004550 (LV)± 3.4%16%37%10%19%2%16%
Richard Quinn & Associates (R)[23][24]October 17–20, 2003± 3.8%8%24%8%16%44%
24%44%32%
22%33%45%
44%28%28%
Basswood Research (R)[25]April 29, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%19%4%27%4%46%

Results

[edit]
Republican Primary
CandidateVotes%
David Beasley107,84736.6%
Jim DeMint77,56726.3%
Thomas Ravenel73,16724.8%
Charlie Condon27,6949.4%
Mark McBride6,4792.2%
Orly Benny Davis1,9150.7%
Republican Primary Runoff
CandidateVotes%±%
Jim DeMint154,64459.2%+32.9%
David Beasley106,48040.8%+4.2%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Major

[edit]

Minor

[edit]

DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would followconservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.

Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of theFairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26]Likely R(flip)November 1, 2004

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
Jim
DeMint (R)
Inez
Tenenbaum (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA[27]October 29–31, 2004635 (LV)± 4%52%41%7%
McLaughlin & Associates[28]October 26–28, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%48%40%12%
SurveyUSA[29]October 22–24, 2004564 (LV)± 4.2%52%39%9%
Mason-Dixon[30]October 19–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%47%43%10%
SurveyUSA[31]October 10–12, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%46%43%11%
Rasmussen Reports[32]October 6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%49%43%8%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[33]September 29–30, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%46%36%18%
Mason-Dixon[34]September 27–29, 2004625 (RV)± 4%50%38%12%
Global Strategy Group (D)[35]September 27–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%43%46%11%
SurveyUSA[36]September 19–21, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%51%39%10%
Global Strategy Group (D)[37]September 7–9, 2004600 (LV)± 4%44%41%15%
SurveyUSA[38]August 16–18, 2004727 (LV)± 3.7%52%39%9%
SurveyUSA[39]July 10–12, 2004702 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40]June 28–29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%47%41%12%
Hickman Research (D)[41]March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%33%48%19%
Hickman Research (D)[42]Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%33%48%19%
DSCC (D)[43][24]May 2003± %33%45%22%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
David
Beasley (R)
Inez
Tenenbaum (D)
Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[44]March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%41%46%13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[45][46]February 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%48%32%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
Charlie
Condon (R)
Inez
Tenenbaum (D)
Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[41]March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%40%47%13%
Hickman Research (D)[42]Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%36%48%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
Thomas
Ravenel (R)
Inez
Tenenbaum (D)
Undecided
Hickman Research (D)[42]Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%29%49%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[10]
Margin
of error
Jim
DeMint (R)
Fritz
Hollings (D)
Undecided
DSCC (D)[43][24]May 2003± %38%43%19%

Results

[edit]
South Carolina U.S. Senate Election, 2004
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJim DeMint857,16753.67%+8.00%
DemocraticInez Tenenbaum704,38444.10%−8.60%
ConstitutionPatrick Tyndall13,4640.84%N/A
LibertarianRebekah E. Sutherland10,6780.67%−0.92%
United CitizensTee Ferguson5,8590.37%N/A
GreenEfia Nwangaza*4,2450.27%N/A
No partyWrite-Ins1,2860.08%N/A
Majority152,7839.57%+2.54%
Turnout1,597,22169.0%+16.2%
Republicangain fromDemocratic
*Nwangaza ran under the Independence Party inAiken andCalhoun counties; her totals are combined.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats".wfmynews2.com. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  2. ^"Columbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race".WISTV. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  3. ^abcde"Coalition of The Willing?".Roll Call. June 6, 2003. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  4. ^"Corzine Looks For Millionaires".Roll Call. May 2, 2003. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  5. ^"Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit".Roll Call. May 20, 2003. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  6. ^"Who Will Replace Hollings?".wltx.com. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2022.
  7. ^http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTSFOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004).www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.
  8. ^news.google.com/newspapers.[dead link].
  9. ^"MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL". January 7, 2003.. fee required.
  10. ^abcdefKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  11. ^SurveyUSA
  12. ^abcPublic Opinion Strategies (R)
  13. ^SurveyUSA
  14. ^Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  15. ^p. 2
  16. ^SurveyUSA
  17. ^SurveyUSA
  18. ^Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  19. ^SurveyUSA
  20. ^p. 2
  21. ^Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  22. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  23. ^Richard Quinn & Associates (R)
  24. ^abcp. 2
  25. ^Basswood Research (R)
  26. ^"The Final Predictions".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMay 2, 2021.
  27. ^SurveyUSA
  28. ^McLaughlin & Associates
  29. ^SurveyUSA
  30. ^Mason-Dixon
  31. ^SurveyUSA
  32. ^Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  34. ^Mason-Dixon
  35. ^Global Strategy Group (D)
  36. ^SurveyUSA
  37. ^Global Strategy Group (D)
  38. ^SurveyUSA
  39. ^SurveyUSA
  40. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  41. ^abHickman Research (D)
  42. ^abcHickman Research (D)
  43. ^abDSCC (D)
  44. ^Hickman Research (D)
  45. ^McLaughlin & Associates (R)
  46. ^p. 2

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

President
U.S.
Senate
U.S.
House
State
governors
State
legislatures
State officials
Mayors
Local
States
Ballot
measures
General
State Senate
State House
Governor
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2004_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina&oldid=1312161792"
Categories:
Hidden categories:

[8]ページ先頭

©2009-2025 Movatter.jp