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1996 Australian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1996 Australian federal election

← 19932 March 1996 (1996-03-02)1998 →

All 148 seats in theHouse of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in theSenate
Registered11,740,568Increase 3.13%
Turnout11,244,017 (95.77%)
(Increase0.02pp)
 First partySecond party
 
LeaderJohn HowardPaul Keating
PartyLiberal–National CoalitionLabor
Leader since30 January 1995 (1995-01-30)19 December 1991 (1991-12-19)
Leader's seatBennelong (NSW)Blaxland (NSW)
Last election65 seats80 seats
Seats won94 seats49 seats
Seat changeIncrease 29Decrease 31
First preference vote5,142,1614,217,765
Percentage47.25%38.75%
SwingIncrease 2.98%Decrease 6.17%
TPP53.63%46.37%
TPP swingIncrease 5.07Decrease 5.07

Results by division for the House of Representatives, shaded by winning party's margin of victory.

Prime Minister before election

Paul Keating
Labor

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition


1996 Australian federal election
National results
State and territory results

The1996 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the38th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 2 March 1996. All 148 seats of theHouse of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seatSenate were up for election. TheLiberal/National Coalition led byOpposition LeaderJohn Howard of theLiberal Party and coalition partnerTim Fischer of theNational Party defeated the incumbentAustralian Labor Party government led byPrime MinisterPaul Keating in alandslide victory. The Coalition won 94 seats in the House of Representatives, the equal-largest number of seats won by a federal government to date (tied with Labor's win in2025), and only the second time a party had won over 90 seats at a federal election; the first occurred in1975.

The election marked the end of the five-term, 13-yearHawke-Keating Government that began in1983. Howard was sworn in as the new prime minister of Australia on 11 March 1996, along with theFirst Howard Ministry. This election was the start of the 11-year Howard Government; the Labor party would spend this period in opposition and would not return to government until the2007 election.

This was the first federal election that future prime ministerTony Abbott contested as a member of parliament, having entered parliament at the1994 Warringah by-election. Future prime ministerAnthony Albanese and future opposition leaderBrendan Nelson also entered parliament at this election.

Future prime ministersKevin Rudd andJulia Gillard were unsuccessful candidates for the House of Representatives and Senate respectively, but were elected to the House of Representatives at the next election, in 1998.

Howard became the first Liberal leader to win an election from opposition sinceRobert Menzies in 1949. (Malcolm Fraser was caretaker prime minister in the1975 election.) The victory also saw the Liberal Party gain enough seats to not require the support of the National Party, though John Howard opted to stay in the Coalition. As of 2025, this is the last time the Liberal Party has won an overall majority of seats in federal parliament. It is also the last where both major party leaders were born prior to1946, the first year of thePost-war era.

Background

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John Howard, who had previously led the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1989, returned to the leadership in January 1995 following the party's disastrous eight months under the leadership ofAlexander Downer. Downer and deputy PMPeter Costello had succeededJohn Hewson andMichael Wooldridge early in 1994 and were touted as the leaders of the new-generation Liberals. In the end, the party opted for the seasoned Howard, perhaps an acknowledgement that he was the only one left standing after a decade of party infighting.

Campaign

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Howard approached the campaign with a determination to present as small a target as possible. Throughout 1995 he refused to detail specific policy proposals, focusing the Coalition's attacks mainly on the longevity and governing record of the Labor government. By 1996, however, it was clear that the electorate had tired of Labor and in particular of Paul Keating. The line "The recession we had to have" resonated with deadly force throughout the electorate. Although Keating's big-picture approach torepublicanism,reconciliation with Australia's Indigenous peoples and engagement with Asia galvanised support within Labor's urban constituencies, Howard was able to attract support amongst disaffected mainstream Australians, uniting middle-class suburban residents with traditionally Labor-voting blue-collar workers. He also promised to retainMedicare and holda constitutional convention to decide whether Australia would become a republic.

The election-eveNewspoll reported the Liberal/National Coalition held an estimated 53.5 percenttwo-party-preferred vote.[1]

On election day, the news was dominated by theRalph Willis letter. TreasurerRalph Willis had released a letter purporting to be secret correspondence between Howard and Liberal Premier of Victoria,Jeff Kennett. Howard quickly denounced the letter as a forgery and claims of Labor skulduggery dominated the last day, drowning out anything Keating said. The letter was subsequently revealed to be the work of university students.[citation needed] Left-wing writerBob Ellis claimed that the Ralph Willis letter was the cause of Keating's crushing defeat.

Results

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House of Representatives results

[edit]
Government (94)
Coalition
 Liberal (75)
 National (18)
 CLP (1)

Opposition (49)
 Labor (49)

Crossbench (5)
 Independent (5)
This section is an excerpt from1996 Australian House of Representatives election § Australia.[edit]
House of Reps (IRV) – 1996–1998 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%
PartyVotes%SwingSeatsChange
  Liberal4,210,68938.69+1.9275Increase 26
 National893,1708.21+1.0418Increase 2
 Country Liberal38,3020.35+0.021Increase 1
Liberal/National Coalition5,142,16147.25+2.9894Increase 29
 Labor4,217,76538.75−6.1749Decrease 31
 Democrats735,8486.76+3.01
 Greens[a]317,6542.92+1.09
 Independents262,4202.41−0.735Increase 3
Others208,0041.91+1.05
 Total10,883,852  148Increase 1
Two-party-preferred vote
 Liberal–National coalitionWin53.63+5.0794Increase 29
 Labor 46.37−5.0749Decrease 31
Popular vote
Labor
38.75%
Liberal
38.69%
National
8.21%
Democrats
6.76%
Greens
1.74%
CLP
0.35%
Independents
2.27%
Other
3.23%
Two-party-preferred vote
Coalition
53.63%
Labor
46.37%
Parliament seats
Coalition
63.51%
Labor
33.11%
Independents
3.38%

Senate results

[edit]
Government (37)
Coalition
 Liberal (31)
 National (5)
 CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
 Labor (29)

Crossbench (10)
 Democrats (7)
 Greens (2)
 Independent (1)
This section is an excerpt from1996 Australian Senate election § Australia.[edit]
Senate (STVGV) — 1996–99 – Turnout 95.20% (CV) — Informal 3.89%
PartyVotes%SwingSeats wonSeats heldChange
  Liberal–National joint ticket2,669,37724.49+0.096N/A
 Liberal1,770,48616.24+0.651231Increase2
 National312,7692.87+0.1515Decrease 1
 Country Liberal40,0500.37+0.0411Steady
Liberal–National coalition4,792,68243.97+0.922037Increase 1
 Labor3,940,15036.15−7.351429Decrease 1
 Democrats1,179,35710.82+5.5157Steady
 Greens[b]345,5133.17+0.6712Steady
 Others [c]641,3355.8801Steady
Total10,899,037  4076
Invalid/blank votes395,4423.5
Turnout11,294,47996.2
Registered voters11,740,568
Source:Federal Elections 1996

House of Reps preference flows

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  • The Democrats contested 138 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (54.02%)
  • The Greens contested 102 electorates with preferences favouring Labor (67.10%)

Seats changing hands

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See also:Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Australian federal election
SeatPre-1996SwingPost-1996
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass, Tas LaborSilvia Smith0.034.604.57Warwick SmithLiberal 
Bowman, Qld LaborCon Sciacca8.149.030.89Andrea WestLiberal 
Calare, NSW LaborDavid SimmonsN/AN/A13.32Peter AndrenIndependent 
Canberra, ACT[d] LaborRos Kelly9.562.047.52Bob McMullanLabor 
 LiberalBrendan Smyth[e]6.5814.1
Canning, WA LaborGeorge Gear0.190.880.69Ricky JohnstonLiberal 
Capricornia, Qld LaborMarjorie Henzell2.786.403.62Paul MarekNational 
Curtin, WA LiberalAllan RocherN/AN/A7.28Allan RocherIndependent 
Dickson, Qld LaborMichael Lavarch2.555.723.17Tony SmithLiberal 
Eden-Monaro, NSW LaborJim Snow4.279.034.76Gary NairnLiberal 
Gilmore, NSW LaborPeter Knott0.456.696.24Joanna GashLiberal 
Griffith, Qld LaborBen Humphreys5.907.371.47Graeme McDougallLiberal 
Herbert, Qld LaborTed Lindsay3.319.906.59Peter LindsayLiberal 
Hughes, NSW LaborRobert Tickner6.4211.314.89Danna ValeLiberal 
Kalgoorlie, WA LaborGraeme CampbellN/AN/A10.35Graeme CampbellIndependent 
Kingston, SA LaborGordon Bilney1.453.462.01Susan JeanesLiberal 
Leichhardt, Qld LaborPeter Dodd1.335.514.18Warren EntschLiberal 
Lilley, Qld LaborWayne Swan6.186.910.73Elizabeth GraceLiberal 
Lindsay, NSW LaborRoss Free10.2211.801.58Jackie Kelly[2]Liberal 
Lowe, NSW LaborMary Easson5.017.482.47Paul ZammitLiberal 
Macarthur, NSW LaborChris Haviland1.2811.9710.69John FaheyLiberal 
Macquarie, NSW LaborMaggie Deahm0.126.486.36Kerry BartlettLiberal 
Makin, SA LaborPeter Duncan3.714.791.08Trish DraperLiberal 
McEwen, Vic LaborPeter Cleeland0.691.502.19Fran BaileyLiberal 
McMillan, Vic LaborBarry Cunningham0.532.602.07Russell BroadbentLiberal 
Moore, WA LiberalPaul FilingN/AN/A15.48Paul FilingIndependent 
Moreton, Qld LaborGarrie Gibson0.215.305.09Gary HardgraveLiberal 
Murray, Vic NationalBruce LloydN/AN/A3.70*Sharman StoneLiberal 
North Sydney, NSW IndependentTed Mack1.817.415.6Joe HockeyLiberal 
Northern Territory, NT LaborWarren Snowdon5.315.680.37Nick DondasCountry Liberal 
Oxley, Qld LaborLes Scott14.6519.31**4.66Pauline Hanson[f]Independent 
Page, NSW LaborHarry Woods0.134.444.31Ian CausleyNational 
Parramatta, NSW LaborPaul Elliott3.247.113.87Ross CameronLiberal 
Paterson, NSW LaborBob Horne3.303.730.43Bob BaldwinLiberal 
Petrie, Qld LaborGary Johns2.159.857.70Teresa GambaroLiberal 
Richmond, NSW LaborNeville Newell1.788.536.75Larry AnthonyNational 
Robertson, NSW LaborFrank Walker5.569.123.56Jim LloydLiberal 
Swan, WA LaborKim Beazley0.223.933.71Don RandallLiberal 
Wills, Vic IndependentPhil Clearyn/a4.37n/aKelvin ThomsonLabor 
  • *Figure is Liberal against Nationals.
  • **Figure is a swing compared to Liberal vote at the last election.

Analysis

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Overall the coalition won 29 seats from Labor while the ALP won 4 seats from the Liberals. These 4 seats wereCanberra andNamadgi in theACT andIsaacs andBruce in Victoria. The ACT seats, which had been won by the Liberals in a by-election, fell to Labor due to a strong return to the ALP in a traditional Labor town by public servants fearing conservative cuts. The division ofBrendan Smyth's seat of Canberra into the two new (of the three) ACT seats limited his campaign to the southernmostTuggeranong seat of Namadgi where the ACTLabor right wing stood former MLAAnnette Ellis who ran a tightgrassroots campaign. Isaacs and Bruce fell to Labor due to demographic changes due to a redistribution of electoral boundaries.

TheGallagher Index result: 11.14

Labor lost five percent of its two-party vote from 1993, and tallied its lowest primary vote since 1934 (an additional eight percent coming from preferences). The swing against Labor would not normally have been enough in and of itself to cause a change of government. However, Labor lost 13 of its 33 seats in New South Wales, and all but two of its 13 seats in Queensland. The 29-seat swing was the second-largest defeat, in terms of seats lost, by a sitting government in Australia. Three members of Keating's government – including Attorney-GeneralMichael Lavarch – lost their seats. Keating resigned as Labor leader on the night of the election, and was succeeded by former deputy prime minister and Finance MinisterKim Beazley.

Due in part to this large swing, Howard entered office with a 45-seat majority, the second-largest in Australian history (behind only the 55-seat majority won byMalcolm Fraser in1975). The Liberals actually won a majority in their own right at this election with 75 seats, the most the party had ever won. Although Howard had no need for the support of the Nationals, the Coalition was retained. As of 2025[update], this was the last time the Liberals have won a majority in their own right at a federal election.

Exit polling showed the Coalition winning 47 percent of the blue-collar vote, compared with Labor's 39 percent; there was a 16-point drop in Labor's vote among members of trade unions. The Coalition won 48 percent of the Catholic vote and Labor 37 percent, a reversal of the usual figures.[3]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^TheAustralian Greens were founded in 1992, but not all local organisations immediately affiliated. The Greens total includes Australian Greens,Greens Western Australia,Victorian Greens,Tasmanian Greens, Central Coast Green Party, and Richmond/Clarence Greens.
  2. ^Includes votes for the federalAustralian Greens (261,677) as well asGreens Western Australia (57,006) and theTasmanian Greens (26,830), which had not yet aligned with the federal party.
  3. ^The independent senator wasBrian Harradine (Tasmania).
  4. ^Ros Kelly (Labor) had wonCanberra at the1993 election, however she resigned in 1995 andBrendan Smyth (Liberal) won the seat at theresulting by-election.
  5. ^Brendan Smyth (Liberal) had wonCanberra at the1995 by-election, however he contested the new seat ofNamadgi.
  6. ^Originally ran as a Liberal candidate, however after her views on immigration became known she was disendorsed. However, because the election was being held very soon after many ballot papers listed her as a Liberal. Therefore, John Howard made it clear if she were to win she would not sit as a Liberal MP so she resigned from the party and sat as an Independent. Flipping the seat from Labor to Independent.

References

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  1. ^"Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived fromthe original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved30 July 2016.
  2. ^Kelly conceded that she was incapable of being chosen as a member of the House of Representatives while serving as an officer of the RAAF and won the subsequentby-election with an increased margin:Holland, I (2004)."Section 44 of the Constitution".Parliamentary Library of Australia.
  3. ^John Stone (15 March 1996). "Remember, it was Paul Keating".The Australian Financial Review.

External links

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Australia Federalelections andreferendums in Australia
Federal elections
Constitutional Convention
Referendums
See also:By-elections
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