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 County results Bradley: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bell: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The1978 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 7, 1978. Incumbent SenatorClifford P. Case ran for re-election to a fifth term in office, narrowly losing the Republican primary by anti-tax conservativeJeff Bell, who lost the general election toDemocratBill Bradley. Bell was the unsuccessful Republican nominee for this seat again in2014.
Primary elections were held on June 6, 1978.[1] Case was defeated by Bell, a political novice forty years his junior, while Bradley easily won the Democratic primary over State TreasurerRichard Leone and state senatorAlexander Menza.
This was the first time Democrats won this seat since1936, and the first time since1938 that Democrats held both seats in the state.
In 1972, U.S. SenatorClifford P. Case won re-election to a fourth term in office by a record 780,000 votes.[2] He was the ranking Republican on theUnited States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.[3] In his political career, which covered over twelve elections in the course of forty years, Case had lost only one race for New Jersey General Assembly in 1941.[4] However, he had a reputation as a liberal internationalist and commonly drew challengers in the Republican primary.[5]
Beginning in 1974, Jeff Bell was a top policy advisor to formerGovernor of CaliforniaRonald Reagan and a leading architect of hissupply-side economics platform during the 1976 Republican primary campaign againstGerald Ford.[3] In 1976, Bell left theRonald Reagan presidential campaign and relocated to New Jersey with the express intent of challengingClifford Case, the long-time incumbent Senator and bête noire of conservative Republicans.[2][3]
Bell ran an energetic, active campaign centered around his advocacy ofsupply-side economics. Case, on the other hand, largely ignored his challenger, remained in Washington attending to his legislative duties, and spent only about $100,000.[6] He was the only major candidate in either primary who did not use television commercials, and he also generally disfavored telephone banks, direct mailing, and internal polling. He ignored advice from advisors to take the challenge seriously, at least in order to get a running start on the general election.[5]
The core policy proposal of Bell's campaign was a large federal income tax cut for the purpose of stimulating domestic investment, similar tothe plan proposed in Congress by William Roth and Jack Kemp. Under Bell's plan, the top marginal rate would be cut by 20 percentage points, and lower rates would be cut by 30 percentage points across the board. Case countered that the proposal would be "enormously inflationary."[2]
Bell also criticized Case on foreign policy, referring to him as "too liberal", in particular for his vote in favor for theTorrijos–Carter Treaties.[3] Bell also advocated the sale of military planes to Egypt and other Arab states, which Case had voted against due to his strong support for Israel. Late in the campaign, Case moderated his position, stating that he could support aid to Egypt but wanted moderate Arab leaders to recognize "the right of Israel to exist". He reinforced his commitment to "a strong Israel" and continued to oppose any "even-handed" approach in the Middle East.[2]
Case had the support of every Republican member of the state legislature and 20 out of 21 county chairmen. Some municipal chairmen supported Bell.[5]
Case made particular use of former U.S. attorneyJonathan L. Goldstein, who served as his campaign counsel and had prosecuted former party chairmanNelson G. Gross and Bergen County chair Anthony Statile, as a campaign surrogate.[5]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a][clarification needed] | Jeff Bell | Clifford Case | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | May 7–16, 1978 | LV | 8% | 43% | 49% |
| Associated Press/WNBC[8] | May 1978 | 700 (RV) | 14% | 50% | 36% |
In conceding defeat, Case remarked, "It was an interesting campaign; it fooled everyone. The turnout was very light and perhaps that indicated a deep unhappiness of the voters with the people of authority and power. I shall continue to believe in the Republican Party and to support it."[2] He applauded Bell as a "nice young man" but said that he remained convinced that Bell would not have a chance of winning the general election.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Bell | 118,555 | 50.74 | |
| Republican | Clifford P. Case (incumbent) | 115,082 | 49.26 | |
| Total votes | 233,637 | 100.00 | ||
On June 8, following further reflection, Case expressed no regret over his campaign strategy and attributed his defeat to "the dissatisfaction of people with government."[6] Party leadership, in particular former assembly speakerThomas Kean, criticized Case for his "longtime reluctance to use modern campaign techniques."[5]
Case declined to endorse Bell for the general election.[6]
Bell's victory, which was held the same night as popular tax reform referendums inCalifornia and Ohio, was taken as a symbol of a broader anti-tax sentiment in the United States,[5] which culminated in the1980 election of Ronald Reagan and a Republican majority in Congress. In 2018, following Bell's death,Robert W. Merry ofThe American Conservative credited Bell as the first candidate to run on a supply-side platform and, along withJack Kemp,Jude Wanniski, andRobert Bartley, one of the founders of the supply-side movement.[9]
| No. | Date and time | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P Present A Absent | Bradley | Leone | Maguire | Menza | ||||
| 1[13] | January 20, 1978 | WPIX11 | John Hamilton | N/A | P | P | P | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a][clarification needed] | Bill Bradley | Richard Leone | Alexander Menza | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | May 7–16, 1978 | LV | 16% | 12% | 3% | 69% |
| Associated Press/WNBC[8] | May 1978 | 700 (RV) | 37% | 9% | 3% | 51% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Bradley | 217,502 | 58.90 | |
| Democratic | Richard Leone | 97,667 | 26.45 | |
| Democratic | Alexander J. Menza | 32,386 | 8.77 | |
| Democratic | Kenneth C. McCarthy | 9,524 | 2.58 | |
| Democratic | Wesley K. Bell | 8,800 | 2.38 | |
| Democratic | Ray Rollinson | 3,374 | 0.91 | |
| Total votes | 369,253 | 100.00 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Bill Bradley (D) | Jeffrey Bell (R) | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | May 7–16, 1978 | 793 RV | 36% | 17% | 47% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | Sept. 19–Oct. 1, 1978 | 883 RV | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | October 23–29, 1978 | 946 RV | 50% | 32% | 18% |
| 510 LV | 51% | 40% | 9% |
with Case
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Clifford Case (R) | Bill Bradley (D) | Richard Leone (D) | Alex Menza (D) | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | May 7–16, 1978 | 1007 A | ±4.0% | 37% | 27% | – | – | 36% |
| 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
| 43% | – | – | 18% | 40% |
with Bell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jeffrey Bell (R) | Richard Leone (D) | Alex Menza (D) | Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers-Eagleton[7][not specific enough to verify] | May 7–16, 1978 | 620 LV | ±?% | 18% | 29% | – | 54% |
| 19% | – | 22% | 59% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Bradley | 1,082,960 | 55.32% |  20.81 | |
| Republican | Jeff Bell | 844,200 | 43.13% |  19.33 | |
| Independent | Herbert H. Shaw | 4,736 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Independent | Bill Gahres | 3,817 | 0.20% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Jack Moyers | 3,809 | 0.20% | N/A | |
| U.S. Labor | Robert Bowen | 3,656 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Independent | J.M. Carter | 3,618 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jasper C. Gould | 2,955 | 0.15% | N/A | |
| Independent | William R. Thorn | 2,776 | 0.14% | N/A | |
| Socialist Labor | Paul Ferguson | 2,604 | 0.13% | 0.23 | |
| Socialist Workers | Alice Conner | 2,384 | 0.12% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,957,515 | 100.00% | |||
| Democraticgain fromRepublican | |||||
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