TheItalian plague of 1629–1631, also referred to as theGreat Plague of Milan, was part of thesecond plague pandemic that began with theBlack Death in 1348 and ended in the 18th century. One of two major outbreaks inItaly during the 17th century, it affectednorthern andcentral Italy and resulted in at least 280,000 deaths, with some estimating fatalities as high as one million, or about 35% of the population.[1] The plague may have contributed to the decline of Italy's economy relative to those of other Western European countries.[2]
Thought to have originated in NorthernFrance in 1623, the plague was carried throughout Europe as a result of troop movements associated with theThirty Years' War and was allegedly brought toLombardy in 1629 by soldiers involved in theWar of the Mantuan Succession.[3] The disease first spread toVenetian troops and in October 1629 reachedMilan, Lombardy's major commercial centre. Although the city instituted aquarantine and limited access to external visitors and trade goods, it failed to eliminate the disease. A major outbreak in March 1630 resulted from relaxed health measures during thecarnival season, followed by a second wave in the spring and summer of 1631. Overall, Milan suffered approximately 60,000 fatalities out of a total population of 130,000.[3]
East of Lombardy, the Republic of Venice was infected in 1630–31. The city ofVenice was severely hit, with recorded casualties of 46,000 out of a population of 140,000. Some historians believe that the drastic loss of life, and its impact on commerce, ultimately resulted in the downfall of Venice as a major commercial and political power.[4]
Population before the plague and death toll, selected cities:[1]
| City | Population in 1630 | Death estimates by 1631 | Percentage of population lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verona | 54,000 | 33,000 | 61% |
| Parma | 30,000 | 15,000 | 50% |
| Milan | 130,000 | 60,000 | 46% |
| Venice | 140,000 | 46,000 | 33% |
| Bologna | 62,000 | 15,000 | 24% |
| Florence | 76,000 | 9,000 | 12% |
A 2019 study argues the plague of 1629–1631 led to lower growth in several cities affected by the plague and "caused long-lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth-century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies."[5]