Ininvestment, thebond credit rating represents thecredit worthiness of corporate or governmentbonds. The ratings are published bycredit rating agencies and used by investment professionals to assess the likelihood the debt will be repaid.
Credit rating agencies
editCredit rating is a highly concentrated industry with the"Big Three" credit rating agencies –Fitch Ratings,Moody's andStandard & Poor's (S&P) – controlling approximately 95% of the ratings business.[1][2]
Credit rating agencies registered as such with theSEC are "nationally recognized statistical rating organizations". The following firms arecurrently registered as NRSROs:A.M. Best Company, Inc.;DBRS Ltd.;Egan-Jones Rating Company; Fitch, Inc.; HR Ratings;Japan Credit Rating Agency;Kroll Bond Rating Agency; Moody's Investors Service, Inc.; Rating and Investment Information, Inc.; Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC; and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.
Under theCredit Rating Agency Reform Act, an NRSRO may be registered with respect to up to five classes of credit ratings: (1) financial institutions, brokers, or dealers; (2) insurance companies; (3) corporate issuers; (4) issuers of asset-backed securities; and (5) issuers of government securities, municipal securities, or securities issued by a foreign government.[3]
In Asia, the regulated and recognized credit rating agencies in the domestic markets are – in China: China Chengxin International (CCXI), China Lianhe Credit Rating (Lianhe Ratings), CSCI Pengyuan,New Century Zixin Assessment Investment Service; in Japan: Rating and Investment Information (R&I); in India: ICRA (ICRA),Credit Analysis and Research (CARE) and CRISIL.
Credit rating codes and classes
editThe credit rating is a financial indicator to potential investors ofdebtsecurities such asbonds. These are assigned bycredit rating agencies such as Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch, which publish code designations (such as AAA, B, CC) to express their assessment of the risk quality of a bond. Moody's assigns bond credit ratings ofAaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba, B, Caa, Ca, C, as well as WR and NR for 'withdrawn' and 'not rated' respectively.[4] Standard & Poor's and Fitch assign bond credit ratings of AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C, D. Currently there are only two companies in the United States with an AAA credit rating:Microsoft andJohnson & Johnson.[5] These individual codes are grouped into broader classes described as "investment grade" or not, or in numbered tiers from high to low.
In addition to the rating codes, agencies typically supplement the current assessment with indications of the chances for future upgrades or downgrades over the medium term. For example, Moody's designates anOutlook for a given rating as Positive (POS, likely to upgrade), Negative (NEG, likely to downgrade), Stable (STA, likely to remain unchanged), or Developing (DEV, contingent on some future event).[6]
Moody's | S&P | Fitch | Equivalent to SVO Designations | Rating description | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Long-term | Short-term | Long-term | Short-term | Long-term | Short-term | NAIC | ||
Aaa | P-1 | AAA | A-1+ | AAA | F1+ | 1 | Prime | Investment-grade |
Aa1 | AA+ | AA+ | High grade | |||||
Aa2 | AA | AA | ||||||
Aa3 | AA− | AA− | ||||||
A1 | A+ | A-1 | A+ | F1 | Upper medium grade | |||
A2 | A | A | ||||||
A3 | P-2 | A− | A-2 | A− | F2 | |||
Baa1 | BBB+ | BBB+ | 2 | Lower medium grade | ||||
Baa2 | P-3 | BBB | A-3 | BBB | F3 | |||
Baa3 | BBB− | BBB− | ||||||
Ba1 | Not prime | BB+ | B | BB+ | B | 3 | Non-investment grade speculative | Non-investment grade AKA high-yield bonds AKA junk bonds |
Ba2 | BB | BB | ||||||
Ba3 | BB− | BB− | ||||||
B1 | B+ | B+ | 4 | Highly speculative | ||||
B2 | B | B | ||||||
B3 | B− | B− | ||||||
Caa1 | CCC+ | C | CCC | C | 5 | Substantial risks | ||
Caa2 | CCC | Extremely speculative | ||||||
Caa3 | CCC− | Default imminent with little prospect for recovery | ||||||
Ca | CC | 6 | ||||||
C | ||||||||
C | D | / | DDD | / | In default | |||
/ | DD | |||||||
D |
Rating tier definitions
editMoody's | S&P | Fitch | Credit worthiness[7][8] |
---|---|---|---|
Aaa1 | AAA+ | AAA+ | An obligor hasextremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments. |
Aaa2 | AAA | AAA | |
Aaa3 | AAA− | AAA− | |
Aa1 | AA+ | AA+ | An obligor hasvery strong capacity to meet its financial commitments. It differs from the highest-rated obligors only to a small degree. |
Aa2 | AA | AA | |
Aa3 | AA− | AA− | |
A1 | A+ | A+ | An obligor hasstrong capacity to meet its financial commitments but is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than obligors in higher-rated categories. |
A2 | A | A | |
A3 | A− | A− | |
Baa1 | BBB+ | BBB+ | An obligor hasadequate capacity to meet its financial commitments. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitments. |
Baa2 | BBB | BBB | |
Baa3 | BBB− | BBB− | |
Ba1 | BB+ | BB+ | An obligor isless vulnerable in the near term than other lower-rated obligors. However, it faces major ongoing uncertainties and exposure to adverse business, financial, or economic conditions which could lead to the obligor's inadequate capacity to meet its financial commitments. |
Ba2 | BB | BB | |
Ba3 | BB− | BB− | |
B1 | B+ | B+ | An obligor ismore vulnerable than the obligors rated 'BB', but the obligor currently has the capacity to meet its financial commitments. Adverse business, financial, or economic conditions will likely impair the obligor's capacity or willingness to meet its financial commitments. |
B2 | B | B | |
B3 | B− | B− | |
Caa1 | CCC+ | CCC+ | An obligor iscurrently vulnerable, and is dependent upon favourable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet its financial commitments. |
Caa2 | CCC | CCC | |
Caa3 | CCC− | CCC− | |
Ca1 | CC+ | CC+ | An obligor iscurrently highly vulnerable. |
Ca2 | CC | CC | |
Ca3 | CC− | CC− | |
C+ | C+ | The obligor iscurrently highly vulnerable to nonpayment. May be used where a bankruptcy petition has been filed. | |
C | C | ||
C− | C− | ||
C | D | D | An obligor hasfailed to pay one or more of its financial obligations (rated or unrated) when it became due. |
Other annotations | |||
e, p | pr | Expected | Preliminary ratings may be assigned to obligations pending receipt of final documentation and legal opinions. The final rating may differ from the preliminary rating. |
WR | WD | Rating withdrawn for reasons including: debt maturity, calls, puts, conversions, etc., or business reasons (e.g. change in the size of a debt issue), or the issuer defaults.[4] | |
Unsolicited | Unsolicited | This rating was initiated by the ratings agency and not requested by the issuer. | |
SD | RD | This rating is assigned when the agency believes that the obligor has selectively defaulted on a specific issue or class of obligations but it will continue to meet its payment obligations on other issues or classes of obligations in a timely manner. | |
NR | NR | NR | No rating has been requested, or there is insufficient information on which to base a rating. |
Investment grade
editAbond is consideredinvestment grade orIG if its credit rating is BBB− or higher byFitch Ratings orS&P, or Baa3 or higher byMoody's, the so-called"Big Three" credit rating agencies. Generally they are bonds that are judged by the rating agency as likely enough to meet payment obligations that banks are allowed to invest in them.
Ratings play a critical role in determining how much companies and other entities that issue debt, including sovereign governments, have to pay to access credit markets, i.e., the amount of interest they pay on their issued debt. The threshold between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings has important market implications for issuers' borrowing costs.
Bonds that are not rated as investment-grade bonds are known ashigh yield bonds or more derisively asjunk bonds.
The risks associated with investment-grade bonds (or investment-gradecorporate debt) are considered significantly higher than those associated with first-class government bonds. The difference between rates for first-class government bonds and investment-grade bonds is called investment-grade spread. The range of this spread is an indicator of the market's belief in the stability of the economy. The higher these investment-grade spreads (orrisk premiums) are, the weaker the economy is considered.
Criticism
editUntil the early 1970s, bond credit ratings agencies were paid for their work by investors who wanted impartial information on the credit worthiness of securities issuers and their particular offerings. Starting in the early 1970s, the "Big Three" ratings agencies (S&P, Moody's, and Fitch) began to receive payment for their work by the securities issuers for whom they issue those ratings, which has led to charges that these ratings agencies can no longer always be impartial when issuing ratings for those securities issuers. Securities issuers have been accused of "shopping" for the best ratings from these three ratings agencies, in order to attract investors, until at least one of the agencies delivers favorable ratings. This arrangement has been cited as one of the primary causes of thesubprime mortgage crisis (which began in 2007); some securities, particularlymortgage-backed securities (MBSs) andcollateralized debt obligations (CDOs), were rated highly by the credit ratings agencies and thus heavily invested in by many organizations and individuals, but were then rapidly and vastly devalued due to defaults, and fear of defaults, on some of the individual components of those securities, such as home loans and credit card accounts. Other countries are beginning to mull the creation of domestic credit ratings agencies to challenge the dominance of the "Big Three", for example in Russia, where theACRA was founded in 2016.[9]
Municipal bonds
editMunicipal bonds are instruments issued by local, state, or federal governments in theUnited States. Until April–May 2010, Moody's and Fitch were rating municipal bonds on the separate naming/classification system which mirrored the tiers for corporate bonds. S&P abolished its dual rating system in 2000.
Default rates
editThe historical default rate for municipal bonds is lower than that of corporate bonds. A potential misuse of historic default statistics "is to assume that historical average default rates represent the 'probability of default' of debt in a particular rating category. However, [...] default rates can vary significantly from one year to the next and the observed rate for any given year can vary significantly from the average."[10]
Year | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA− | A+ | A | A− | BBB+ | BBB | BBB− | BB+ | BB | BB− | B+ | B | B− | CCC to C |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1981 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.28 | 0 | 0 |
1982 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 2.86 | 7.04 | 2.22 | 2.33 | 7.41 | 21.43 |
1983 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.33 | 2.17 | 0 | 1.59 | 1.22 | 9.80 | 4.76 | 6.67 |
1984 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 2.13 | 3.51 | 7.69 | 25.00 |
1985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 2.59 | 13.11 | 8.00 | 15.38 |
1986 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 1.82 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 4.65 | 12.16 | 16.67 | 23.08 |
1987 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 1.31 | 5.95 | 6.82 | 12.28 |
1988 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.33 | 1.98 | 4.50 | 9.80 | 20.37 |
1989 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 7.80 | 4.88 | 31.58 |
1990 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 1.10 | 2.78 | 3.06 | 4.46 | 4.87 | 12.26 | 22.58 | 31.25 |
1991 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0 | 3.70 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 8.72 | 16.25 | 32.43 | 33.87 |
1992 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.72 | 14.93 | 20.83 | 30.19 |
1993 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.92 | 0 | 1.30 | 5.88 | 4.17 | 13.33 |
1994 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 1.83 | 6.58 | 3.23 | 16.67 |
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 1.55 | 1.11 | 2.76 | 8.00 | 7.69 | 28.00 |
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 2.33 | 3.74 | 3.92 | 4.17 |
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 5.19 | 14.58 | 12.00 |
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 1.06 | 0.72 | 2.57 | 7.47 | 9.46 | 42.86 |
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.54 | 1.33 | 0.90 | 4.20 | 10.55 | 15.45 | 32.35 |
2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.56 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.88 | 0 | 0.80 | 2.29 | 5.60 | 10.66 | 11.50 | 34.12 |
2001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.49 | 1.19 | 6.27 | 5.94 | 15.74 | 23.31 | 44.55 |
2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.11 | 0.65 | 1.31 | 1.50 | 1.74 | 4.62 | 3.69 | 9.63 | 19.53 | 44.12 |
2003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 0.27 | 1.70 | 5.16 | 9.23 | 33.13 |
2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 2.68 | 2.82 | 15.11 |
2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.78 | 2.59 | 2.98 | 8.87 |
2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.78 | 1.58 | 13.08 |
2007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0 | 0.88 | 14.81 |
2008 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 2.97 | 3.29 | 7.02 | 26.53 |
Summary | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA− | A+ | A | A− | BBB+ | BBB | BBB− | BB+ | BB | BB− | B+ | B | B− | CCC to C |
Mean | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.68 | 0.89 | 1.53 | 2.44 | 7.28 | 9.97 | 22.67 |
Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 2.06 | 6.27 | 7.69 | 22.25 |
Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.78 | 1.11 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 3.70 | 3.06 | 7.04 | 8.72 | 16.25 | 32.43 | 44.55 |
Standard deviation | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 4.51 | 7.82 | 11.93 |
Year | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA− | A+ | A | A− | BBB+ | BBB | BBB− | BB+ | BB | BB− | B+ | B | B− | CCC to C |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1993 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
1994 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.85 | 0 | 0 |
1995 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | 0.98 | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 52.63 |
1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.61 | 12.50 | 0 | 0 | 31.03 | |
1997 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.69 |
1998 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.91 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 0 | 2.34 | 0 | 22.58 |
1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.54 | 0 | 19.35 |
2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 0 | 2.19 | 0 | 5.26 |
2001 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2.22 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 2.00 | 2.69 | 3.27 | 26.87 |
2002 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 0 | 1.77 | 0.19 | 0.70 | 1.26 | 2.03 | 1.12 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 23.24 | 27.03 |
2003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 1.43 | 3.28 | 1.64 | 5.15 | 32.58 |
2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 0.79 | 2.23 | 3.56 | 13.79 |
2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 1.34 | 2.53 | 16.08 |
2006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1.42 | 19.18 |
2007 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1.27 | 5.07 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 0.68 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 24.11 |
2008 | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 0.87 | 1.42 | 2.27 | 1.26 | 3.45 | 5.60 | 4.21 | 5.07 | 8.53 | 12.84 | 10.28 | 56.92 |
Summary | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA− | A+ | A | A− | BBB+ | BBB | BBB− | BB+ | BB | BB− | B+ | B | B− | CCC to C |
Mean | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 3.56 | 0.81 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 2.18 | 2.83 | 16.73 |
Median | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 0.26 | 1.55 | 0 | 17.63 |
Minimum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Maximum | 0.53 | 0.35 | 0.57 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 1.42 | 2.27 | 1.26 | 3.45 | 5.6 | 4.21 | 12.50 | 8.53 | 12.84 | 23.24 | 56.92 |
Standard deviation | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 0.76 | 0.29 | 0.78 | 12.39 | 1.02 | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.93 | 5.59 | 16.60 |
See also
editReferences
edit- ^Alessi, Christopher."The Credit Rating Controversy. Campaign 2012". Council on Foreign Relations. Archived fromthe original on 27 July 2013. Retrieved29 May 2013.
- ^Report on CRA Market Share Calculation,European Securities and Markets Authority, November 2018,Archived 25 December 2018 at theWayback Machine
- ^"Rating Agencies - NRSROs". Sec.gov. Retrieved2012-03-29.
- ^ab"Moody's Rating Symbols & Definitions"(PDF). p. 5. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 2010-09-22. Retrieved2009-09-21.
Withdrawn - WR ... Not Rated - NR
- ^"Apple Upgraded to Top Bond Rating by Moody's on Growth Prospects".Bloomberg. 21 December 2021.
- ^"Glossary of Moody's Rating Terms".CreditRiskMonitor. RetrievedAugust 20, 2019.
- ^"Standard & Poor's Definitions". Bankersalmanac.com. 2010-09-20. Retrieved2012-03-29.
- ^"Individual Investors – An Educational Look at Bond Credit Ratings". Morganstanleyindividual.com. 2005-10-25. Retrieved2012-03-29.
- ^Contextualizing Russia's Ratings Agency: ACRA.Emerging Market Fiscal Oversight and Governance Mechanisms. Social Science Research Network. Accessed 27 August 2017.
- ^"Understanding S&P Global Ratings' Rating Definitions". standardandpoors.com. Retrieved2024-10-12.