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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.
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2024 Presidential Forecast and Predictions
Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST
Our model currently predicts thatDonald Trump has a54% chance of winning the Presidency.
Prediction Updates
Last updated on Nov 4 2024 by Decision Desk HQ
The Final Forecast
Entering Election Day, Donald Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 219 and Harris at 226, and 93 votes dispersed across seven “tossup” states. The former Republican President holds a narrow lead in six of the seven “tossup” states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan.
Harris’s most efficient path to 270 runs through the Rust Belt, holding Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would give her exactly 270 electoral votes, enough to secure the presidency without a single Sun Belt state. Meanwhile, Trump’s most efficient path involves holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia and Pennsylvania, in which case he’d hit exactly 270. As such, Pennsylvania almost certainly holds the key to either candidate’s path
Electoral College Forecast
To win the Presidency, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available electoral votes, distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia according to population. Nebraska and Maine have unique systems: they award two electoral votes to the statewide popular vote winner and distribute the remaining votes according to the winners in each congressional district. This map categorizes states by each candidate’s likelihood of winning, ranging from 'safe' to 'likely' to 'lean' to 'toss-up'.
226
Harris
Trump
219
270 For Election
183
33
93
94
125
NE
State
2
CD-1
1
CD-2
1
CD-3
1
ME
2
1
1
CT 7
DE 3
DC 3
MD 10
MA 11
NH 4
NJ 14
RI 4
VT 3
Chance of winning the presidency
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. This graph tracks each candidate’s probability of winning the presidential election over time.
Nov 12 2023
Electoral College Projections
Trump:276
Harris:262
This graph tracks each candidate’s projected Electoral College vote share over time.
Nov 12 2023
Chance of winning each state
This chart visualizes the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Harris victory, while circles to the right suggest a stronger chance for Trump. Use the 'DEM' and 'GOP' filters to view states most likely to support their respective party’s nominee.
Electoral College Simulations
These graphs represent the distribution of outcomes from 14,000,605 simulations of the Electoral College vote for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The outcomes shaded in lighter colors to the left of the dotted line indicate scenarios where a candidate loses, while those in darker colors to the right of the line represent a win. Each bar shows the percentage of simulations resulting in that specific electoral vote count.
Our model currently projects a0.4% chance of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read ourmethodology statement.
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