FiveThirtyEight ForecastsIllinois 6th District
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Lowe vs. Roskam
Projected Election Results
Based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators, this is the prediction of how the district will vote on Nov. 2.
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Chance Each Candidate Wins The Seat
The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.
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Detailed Forecasts
The forecasts are built from statistical models that account for polling, expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators.
| Stage of forecast | Lowe Democrat | Roskam Republican | Size of lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. 2 projection | 34.9 ± 7.8 pct. pt. | 62.6 ± 7.8 pct. pt. | +27.7 | |
| Percentage chance that candidate wins race | 0.1% | 99.8% | ||
