This table shows all countries, in descending order, by estimated risk for onset ofintrastate mass killing in 2024-25. The length of the bar indicates the estimated risk. We consider countries ranked in the top 30 to be at high risk. Some countries near the bottom of the list appear to have no data; this indicates that their estimates are virtually indistinguishable from 0.

Countries with ongoing mass killing episodes are indicated with this icon. In these cases, the model is forecasting a new mass killing with a different target group or perpetrator, in addition to the ongoing mass killing.

Photo above: A patrol and Anti-Balaka roadblock takedown with Rwandan African Union soldiers, in Bangui, CAR. The New Republic/Michael Christopher Brown, 2014.