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Nature Climate Change
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Groundwater vulnerability on small islands

Nature Climate Changevolume 6, pages1100–1103 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

The majority of naturally occurring freshwater on small islands is groundwater, which is primarily recharged by precipitation1. Recharge rates are therefore likely to be impacted by climate change2. Freshwater resources on small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they are limited in size and easily compromised3,4,5. Here we have compiled available aquifer system characteristics and water-use data for 43 small island developing states distributed worldwide, based on local expert knowledge, publications and regional data sets. Current vulnerability was assessed by evaluating the recharge volume per capita. For future vulnerability, climate change projections were used to estimate changes in aquifer recharge. We find that 44% of islands are in a state of water stress, and while recharge is projected to increase by as much as 117% on 12 islands situated in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, recharge is projected to decrease by up to 58% on the remaining 31 islands. Of great concern is the lack of enacted groundwater protection legislation for many of the small island developing states identified as highly vulnerable to current and future conditions. Recharge indicators, shown alongside the state of legal groundwater protections, provide a global picture of groundwater supply vulnerability under current and future climate change conditions.

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Figure 1: Summary of assessment variable categories showing the confidence levels in the data.
Figure 2: Indicators of groundwater vulnerability.

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Acknowledgements

Funding for this research was provided by UNESCO through the Small Island Developing States Transboundary Water Assessment Programme. The questionnaire distributed to local experts was co-developed with the International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC). IGRAC also coordinated data and information management for the TWAP Groundwater Assessment Programme. The authors thank J. Gurdak and M. Taniguchi for their assistance in reviewing and refining the research approach.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada

    S. Holding, D. M. Allen, S. Foster, A. Hsieh, I. Larocque, J. Klassen & S. C. Van Pelt

Authors
  1. S. Holding
  2. D. M. Allen
  3. S. Foster
  4. A. Hsieh
  5. I. Larocque
  6. J. Klassen
  7. S. C. Van Pelt

Contributions

S.H. and D.M.A. designed the assessment, compiled the data and analysed the results. S.F., A.H., I.L., J.K. and S.C.V.P. conducted the literature review.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toD. M. Allen.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Holding, S., Allen, D., Foster, S.et al. Groundwater vulnerability on small islands.Nature Clim Change6, 1100–1103 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3128

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