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Article

Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size

1
College of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy2018,20(5), 376;https://doi.org/10.3390/e20050376
Submission received: 16 April 2018 /Revised: 14 May 2018 /Accepted: 16 May 2018 /Published: 17 May 2018

Abstract

:
This paper considers a stochastic susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with varying population size and vaccination. We aim to study the global dynamics of the reduced nonlinear stochastic proportional differential system. We first investigate the existence and uniqueness of global positive solution of the stochastic system. Then the sufficient conditions for the extinction and permanence in mean of the infectious disease are obtained. Furthermore, we prove that the solution of the stochastic system has a unique ergodic stationary distribution under appropriate conditions. Finally, the discussion and numerical simulation are given to demonstrate the obtained results.

    1. Introduction

    Since the pioneering work of Kermack and Mckendrick [1], mathematical modeling for the dynamics of epidemic transmission has a realistic significance in predicting and controlling the spread of infectious diseases in the field of epidemiological research [2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Recently, stochastic differential equations have been widely applied to physics, engineering, chemistry, and biology [9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21], which have obtained some novel results.
    In fact, with the development of modern medicine, vaccination has become an important strategy for disease control. Then numerous scholars have investigated the effect of vaccination on disease [22,23,24,25,26,27]. The epidemic model with a constant population size is relatively effective for diseases with a low mortality and short duration. However, it is clearly untenable for diseases with a high mortality and varying populations. Thus epidemic models with varying population size seem to be more reasonable, which have attracted much interest from the research scientists [28,29,30]. Moreover, many infectious diseases incubate inside the hosts for a period of time before becoming infectious, so it is very meaningful to consider the effect of the incubation period. Based on the above considerations, Sun et al. [28] studied an SEIR model with varying population size and vaccination. The system can be described by
    S˙=bN(1δ)βSINδ(1p)βSINδpSμS,E˙=(1δ)βSIN+δ(1p)βSINαEμE,I˙=αE(ε+γ+μ)I,R˙=δpS+γIμR,
    whereS(t),E(t),I(t) andR(t), respectively, stand for the densities of the susceptible, the exposed, the infective and recovered individuals at timet, the total population size is denoted byN(t)=S(t)+E(t)+I(t)+R(t).b represents the inflow rate (including birth and immigration),μ denotes the outflow rate (including natural death and emigration). The functionβSIN stands for the standard incidence rate, hereβ represents the transmission rate of disease.δ(0δ<1) is the vaccine coverage rate of susceptible individuals,p(0p1) is the vaccine efficacy,α represents the rate at which the exposed individuals become infectious,ε is the rate of disease-related death andγ stands for the recovery rate of infective individuals. The parametersδ andp are all non-negative constants andb,μ,β,α,ε andγ are positive constants. Moreover, the differential equation of total population sizeN(t) is given byN˙=(bμ)NεI. The authors [28] explored the proportions of individuals in the four epidemiological classes, namely
    s˜=SN,e˜=EN,i˜=IN,r˜=RN.
    It is easy to get that the variabless˜,e˜,i˜ andr˜ satisfy the following system of differential equations
    s˜˙=b(1δp)βs˜i˜(δp+b)s˜+εs˜i˜,e˜˙=(1δp)βs˜i˜(α+b)e˜+εe˜i˜,i˜˙=αe˜(ε+γ+b)i˜+εi˜2,r˜˙=δps˜+γi˜br˜+εi˜r˜.
    Since variabler˜ does not appear in the first, second, third equations of the above system. Then the above system becomes the following reduced system
    s˜˙=b(1δp)βs˜i˜(δp+b)s˜+εs˜i˜,e˜˙=(1δp)βs˜i˜(α+b)e˜+εe˜i˜,i˜˙=αe˜(ε+γ+b)i˜+εi˜2
    which is subject to the constraintr˜=1s˜e˜i˜. In the region=s˜,e˜,i˜R+3|0s˜+e˜+i˜1, they established the epidemiological threshold conditionR0, which determines disease extinction or permanence, where
    R0=bαβ(1δp)(α+b)(δp+b)(ε+γ+b).
    Meanwhile, they analyzed the global dynamics of system (3) and derived the equilibria (including the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium) and their global stability. In addition, the parameter restrictions for uniform permanence were obtained.
    Nevertheless, the biological populations in the ecosystem are inevitably subjected to uncertain environmental perturbations. It is worth noting that this phenomenon is ubiquitous in the natural environment. So various stochastic epidemic models have been proposed and studied [31,32,33,34,35,36]. To the best of our knowledge, there are not too many researches on global dynamics of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model with varying population size and vaccination yet. In this paper, to make this epidemic model (1) more reasonable and realistic, we suppose the stochastic perturbations are directly proportional tos˜,e˜,i˜ andr˜ under the influence of white noise type, influenced on thes˜˙(t),e˜˙(t),i˜˙(t) andr˜˙(t) in system (1), respectively. This implies the stochastic effects of white noise on the birth and death rates ofS,E,I,R. Then corresponding to system (1), a stochastic version can be reached by
    dS=bN(1δ)βSINδ(1p)βSINδpSμSdt+σ1SdB1(t),dE=(1δ)βSIN+δ(1p)βSINαEμEdt+σ2EdB2(t),dI=αE(ε+γ+μ)Idt+σ3IdB3(t),dR=δpS+γIμRdt+σ4RdB4(t),
    whereBi(t)(i=1,2,3,4) is the standard Wiener processes withBi(0)=0 a.s.σi(t)(i=1,2,3,4) stands for a continuous and bounded function for anyt0 andσi2(t)(i=1,2,3,4) represents the intensities of Wiener processes. Furthermore, the differential equation of total population sizeN(t) is given by the following form
    dN=[(bμ)NεI]dt+σ1SdB1(t)+σ2EdB2(t)+σ3IdB3(t)+σ4RdB4(t).
    From (2), the system (4) becomes the following proportional system
    ds˜=b(1δp)βs˜i˜(δp+b)s˜+εs˜i˜σ12s˜2+s˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2dt+σ1s˜(1s˜)dB1(t)σ2s˜e˜dB2(t)σ3s˜i˜dB3(t)σ4s˜r˜dB4(t),de˜=(1δp)βs˜i˜(α+b)e˜+εe˜i˜σ22e˜2+e˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2dtσ1s˜e˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜(1e˜)dB2(t)σ3e˜i˜dB3(t)σ4e˜r˜dB4(t),di˜=αe˜(ε+γ+b)i˜+εi˜2σ32i˜2+i˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2dtσ1s˜i˜dB1(t)σ2e˜i˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜1i˜dB3(t)σ4i˜r˜dB4(t),dr˜=δps˜+γi˜br˜+εi˜r˜σ42r˜2+r˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2dtσ1s˜r˜dB1(t)σ2e˜r˜dB2(t)σ3i˜r˜dB3(t)+σ4r˜(1r˜)dB4(t).
    It is worthy to note that, the variabless˜,e˜,i˜ andr˜ satisfy the relationr˜=1s˜e˜i˜, we can omit analysis of the fourth equation of system (5) and explore the following reduced system
    ds˜=[b(1δp)βs˜i˜(δp+b)s˜+εs˜i˜σ12s˜2+s˜(σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2)]dt+σ1s˜(1s˜)dB1(t)σ2s˜e˜dB2(t)σ3s˜i˜dB3(t)σ4s˜1s˜e˜i˜dB4(t),de˜=[(1δp)βs˜i˜(α+b)e˜+εe˜i˜σ22e˜2+e˜(σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2)]dtσ1s˜e˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜(1e˜)dB2(t)σ3e˜i˜dB3(t)σ4e˜1s˜e˜i˜dB4(t),di˜=αe˜(ε+γ+b)i˜+εi˜2σ32i˜2+i˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2dtσ1s˜i˜dB1(t)σ2e˜i˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜1i˜dB3(t)σ4i˜1s˜e˜i˜dB4(t)
    with the initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1.
    Since system (6) is a three-dimensional stochastic system with many high-order nonlinear terms, this makes the stochastic analysis novel and more complex than [34,36].
    Throughout this article, unless otherwise specified, let(Ω,F,{F}t0,P) be a complete probability space with a filtration{Ft}t0 satisfying the usual conditions (i.e., it is increasing and right continuous whileF0 contains allP-null sets). Further supposeBi(t)(i=1,2,3,4) stands for the mutually independent standard Wiener processes defined on the complete probability spaceΩ. For an integrable functionx(t) on[0,+), let us definex(t)=1t0tx(r)dr.

    2. Global Positive Solution

    The following Itô’s formula will be used frequently in the sequel.
    Lemma 1.
    [37] Assume thatX(t)R+ is an Itô’s process of the form
    dX(t)=F(X(t),t)dt+G(X(t),t)dB(t),
    whereF:Rn×R+×SRn andG:Rn×R+×SRn are measurable functions.
    GivenVC2,1(Rn×R+×S;R+), we define the operatorLV by
    LV(X,t)=Vt(X,t)+VX(X,t)F(X,t)+12traceGT(X,t)VXX(X,t)G(X,t),
    where
    Vt(X,t)=VX(X,t)t,VX(X,t)=VX(X,t)X1,,VX(X,t)Xn,VXX(X,t)=2VX(X,t)XiXjn×n.
    Then the generalized Itô’s formula is given by
    dV(X,t)=LV(X,t)dt+VX(X,t)G(X,t)dB(t).
    To explore the dynamical behaviors of a population system, we first concern the global existence and positivity of the solutions of system (6).
    Lemma 2.
    For any given initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1, the system (6) has a unique positive local solution(s˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t)) fort[ω,τe), whereτe is the explosion time [37].
    Theorem 1.
    For any given initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1, the system (6) has a unique positive solutions˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t)R+3 ont>0 a.s.
    Proof. 
    The following proof is divided into two parts.
    Part I. Since the coefficients of the system (6) satisfy local Lipschitz condition, from Lemma 2, it is easy to see that the system (6) has a unique positive local solutions˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t) for any given initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1.
    Part II. Now we prove that the positive solution is global, that isτe= a.s. Letk00 be sufficiently large such thats˜(0),e˜(0) andi˜(0) all lie in1k0,k0. For each integerkk0, let us define the stopping time
    τk=inft[ω,τe):s˜(t)1k,k,e˜(t)1k,kori˜(t)1k,k,
    where we defineinf= (∅ stands for the empty set). Evidently,τk is strictly increasing whenk. Letτ=limkτk, thusττe a.s. So we just need to show thatτ= a.s. Ifτ= is untrue, then there exist two constantsT>0 andϵ(0,1) such thatP{τT}>ϵ. Hence, there existsk1k0(k1N+) such that
    P{τkT}ϵ,kk1.
    Define aC2-functionV:R+3R+ by
    Vs˜,e˜,i˜=ln1s˜e˜i˜lns˜lne˜lni˜3.
    The non-negativity ofV(s˜,e˜,i˜) can be obtained fromm1lnm0,m>0.
    In terms of the multi-dimensional Itô’s formula and system (6), we have
    dV=LVdt+σ14s˜1dB1(t)+σ24e˜1dB2(t)+σ34i˜1dB3(t)+σ434s˜4e˜4i˜dB4(t),
    whereLV is given inAppendix A in detail. Then we have
    LVβ+δp+4b+ε+α+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+12σ42:=M0,
    whereM0 is a positive constant.
    So we get
    dVM0dt+σ14s˜1dB1(t)+σ24e˜1dB2(t)+σ34i˜1dB3(t)+σ434s˜4e˜4i˜dB4(t).
    Integrating both sides of (8) from 0 toτkT and then taking the expectation yield
    EVs˜(τkT),e˜(τkT),i˜(τkT)Vs˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)+E0τkTM0dtVs˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)+M0T.
    LetΩk={τkT},kk1 and from (7), we haveP(Ωk)ϵ. Notice that for everyωΩk, there existss˜(τk,ω),e˜(τk,ω) ori˜(τk,ω) equals either1k ork. Thus
    Vs˜(τk,ω),e˜(τk,ω),i˜(τk,ω)1k1ln1k(k1lnk).
    By virtue of (9) and (10), we have
    Vs˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)+M0TE1Ωk(ω)Vs˜(τk,ω),e˜(τk,ω),i˜(τk,ω)ϵ1k1ln1k(k1lnk),
    here1Ωk(ω) represents the indicator function ofΩk(ω).
    Letk, which implies
    >Vs˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)+M0T=
    is a contradiction. Obviously, we get thatτ=. The proof of Theorem 1 is complete.  ☐

    3. Extinction

    For a population system, the parameter conditions of disease extinction and permanence have become an important issue that attracts more and more attention in real life. In this section, we mainly investigate the extinction of disease and leave the argument of permanence to the next section.
    Theorem 2.
    Lets˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t) be the solution of system (6) with the initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1. If the parameter conditions
    M1<2(1ϱ)α,ε(1δp)β<ε+γ+b
    hold, then
    lim suptlne˜(t)+ϱi˜(t)t(ϱ1)α+M12<0a.s.,
    where
    ϱ=(ε+γ+bα)+(ε+γ+bα)2+4(1δp)αβ2α
    and
    M1=maxσ12,1ϱ2σ32,σ42,
    namely,e˜(t) andi˜(t) tend to zero exponentially a.s. That is to say, the exposed and infective individuals go to extinction almost surely.
    Proof. 
    Let us define a differentiable functionV by
    V=lne˜(t)+ϱi˜(t),
    hereϱ is a positive constant to be determined later. According to the Itô’s formula and system (6), we have
    dV=LVdtσ1s˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜1e˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜ϱe˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB3(t)σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t),
    whereLV is given inAppendix B in detail. One can derive that
    dV(ϱ1)α+M12dtσ1s˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜1e˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜ϱe˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB3(t)σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t),
    hereM1=maxσ12,1ϱ2σ32,σ42. Then, integrating from 0 tot and dividing byt on both sides of (12) yield
    lne˜(t)+ϱi˜(t)t(ϱ1)α+M12+lne˜(0)+ϱi˜(0)t+M˜(t)t,
    here
    M˜(t)=σ10ts˜(r)dB1(r)+σ20te˜(r)1e˜(r)ϱi˜(r)e˜(r)+ϱi˜(r)dB2(r)+σ30ti˜(r)ϱe˜(r)ϱi˜(r)e˜(r)+ϱi˜(r)dB3(r)σ40t1s˜(r)e˜(r)i˜(r)dB4(r).
    In a similar way as [38], making use of the strong law of large numbers [37] yields
    limtM˜(t)t=0a.s.
    Therefore,
    lim suptlne˜(t)+ϱi˜(t)t(ϱ1)α+M12<0a.s.,
    which shows that
    limte˜(t)=0,limti˜(t)=0a.s.
    The proof of Theorem 2 is complete. ☐

    4. Permanence in Mean

    Theorem 3.
    Lets˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t) be the solution of system (6) with the initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1. If the parameter condition
    b(1δp)βα3>δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ323
    holds, then
    i˜̲lim infti˜(t)lim supti˜(t)i˜¯a.s.,
    where
    i˜̲=3b(1δp)βα3δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32(1δp)β
    and
    i˜¯=2b+α+ε+γ+12σ22+12σ322ε,
    that is to say, the infective individualsi˜(t) are permanent in mean almost surely.
    Proof. 
    The following proof is divided into two steps.
    Step I. According to the Itô’s formula and system (6), we have
    dlns˜+lne˜+lni˜=[bs˜(1δp)βi˜+3εi˜+(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+αe˜i˜+32σ12s˜2+32σ22e˜2+32σ32i˜2+32σ421s˜e˜i˜2(δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32)]dt+σ113s˜dB1(t)+σ213e˜dB2(t)+σ313i˜dB3(t)3σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t).
    Integrating from 0 tot and dividing byt on both sides of (13) lead to
    lns˜(t)t+lne˜(t)t+lni˜(t)t3b(1δp)βα3(1δp)βi˜(δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32)+lns˜(0)t+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M̲(t)t,
    here
    M̲(t)=σ10t13s˜(r)dB1(r)+σ20t13e˜(r)dB2(r)+σ30t13i˜(r)dB3(r)3σ40t1s˜(r)e˜(r)i˜(r)dB4(r).
    The detail derivation process for the above inequality is given inAppendix C.
    In a similar way as [38], making use of the strong law of large numbers [37] leads to
    limtM̲(t)t=0a.s.
    Then, by virtue of<lns˜(t)<0,<lne˜(t)<0,<lni˜(t)<0(s˜+e˜+i˜+r˜=1) andδp<1, it is easy to get that
    lim infti˜(t)i˜̲>0a.s.
    Step II. Similarly, using the Itô’s formula and system (6), we have
    dlne˜+lni˜=[(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+αe˜i˜+2εi˜+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜22b+α+ε+γ+12σ22+12σ32]dt2σ1s˜dB1(t)+σ212e˜dB2(t)+σ312i˜dB3(t)2σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t).
    Integrating from 0 tot and dividing byt on both sides of (14) result in
    lne˜(t)t+lni˜(t)t=(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+αe˜i˜+2εi˜+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜22b+α+ε+γ+12σ22+12σ32+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M^(t)t2εi˜2b+α+ε+γ+12σ22+12σ32+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M^(t)t,
    here
    M^(t)=2σ10ts˜(r)dB1(r)+σ20t12e˜(r)dB2(r)+σ30t12i˜(r)dB3(r)2σ40t1s˜(r)e˜(r)i˜(r)dB4(r).
    In a similar way as [38], using the strong law of large numbers [37], we have
    limtM^(t)t=0a.s.
    Therefore,
    lim supti˜(t)i˜¯>0a.s.
    The proof of Theorem 3 is complete. ☐

    5. Stationary Distribution and Ergodicity

    Recently, the stationary distribution attract deep research interests of many authors [32,33,34,35]. The ergodicity is one of the most important properties for the stochastic system, and geometric ergodicity for finite-dimensional systems has been shown in detail and well-developed in many earlier works [39,40]. In this section, based on the theory of Khasminskii [41] and the Lyapunov function method, we explore the conditions of the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution, which shows that the epidemic disease will prevail.
    AssumeX(t) be a time-homogeneous Markov process inDnRn, which is described by the stochastic differential equation
    dX(t)=b(X)dt+η=1nση(X)dBη(t),
    hereDn stands for a n-dimensional Euclidean space.
    The diffusion matrix is as follows:
    A(x)=(aij(x)),aij(x)=η=1nσηi(x)σηj(x).
    Assumption 1.
    Assume that there exists a bounded domainUDn with regular boundary Γsuch thatU¯Dn(U¯ is the closure ofU), satisfying the following properties:
    (i)In the domain U and some neighborhood thereof, the smallest eigenvalue of the diffusion matrixA(x) is bounded away from zero.
    (ii)IfxDn\U, the mean time τ at which a path issuing from x reaches the set U is finite, andsupxΘExτ< for every compact subsetΘDn.
    Lemma 3.
    [41] When Assumption 1 holds, then the Markov processX(t) has a stationary distributionπ(·). In addition, whenf(·) is a function integrable with respect to the measure π, then
    PxlimT1T0Tf(X(t))dt=Dnf(x)π(dx)=1
    for allxDn.
    Remark 1.
    To prove Assumption 1(i) [42], it suffices to demonstrate thatF is uniformly elliptical in any bounded domain H, here
    Fu=b(x)ux+12trace(A(x)uxx),
    namely, there exists a positive number Z such that
    i,j=1naij(x)ξiξjZ|ξ|2,xH¯,ξRn.
    To prove Assumption 1(ii) [43], it suffices to demonstrate that there exist some neighborhood U and a nonnegativeC2-function V such thatxDn\U,LV(x)<0.
    Making use of the Lemma 3, we can obtain the main results as follows.
    Theorem 4.
    Lets˜(t),e˜(t),i˜(t) be the solution of system (6) with the initial values˜(0),e˜(0),i˜(0)R+3 ands˜(0)+e˜(0)+i˜(0)<1. If the parameter condition
    b(1δp)βα3>2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ423
    holds, then the system (6) has a unique stationary distributionπ(·) and it has ergodic property.
    Proof. 
    Now let us define a positive-definite functionV by
    V=lns˜+e˜+i˜lns˜lne˜lni˜lnr˜.
    Using the Itô’s formula yields
    LVbs˜(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜αe˜i˜bs˜+e˜+i˜δps˜r˜γi˜r˜+M1,
    here
    M1=(1δp)β+2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ42.
    The detail derivation process for the above inequality ofLV is given inAppendix D.
    Next let us construct the following compact subsetU:
    U=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:ψ1s˜<1,ψ2e˜<1,ψ3i˜<1,ψ4s˜+e˜+i˜1ψ4,
    where
    U˜=0<s˜<1,0<e˜<1,0<i˜<1,0<s˜+e˜+i˜<1
    andψi(0,1)(i=1,2,3,4) is a sufficiently small constant satisfying the following conditions:
    ψ2=ψ12ψ3,ψ4=ψ12=ψ32,
    bψ1+M11,
    (1δp)βψ1+M11,
    (1δp)βψ3b<0,
    bψ4+M11,
    δpψ1γψ3+M11.
    Then
    U˜\U=U1U2U3U4U5,
    with
    U1=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:0<s˜<ψ1,U2=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:ψ1s˜<1,0<e˜<ψ2,ψ3i˜<1,
    U3=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:0<i˜<ψ3,U4=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:0<s˜+e˜+i˜<ψ4,
    U5=s˜,e˜,i˜U˜:ψ1s˜<1,ψ3i˜<1,1ψ4<s˜+e˜+i˜<1.
    Now we prove the negativity ofLV for anyU˜\U.
    Case I. Ifs˜,e˜,i˜U1, it follows from (A1) and (17) that
    LVbs˜+M1bψ1+M11.
    Case II. Ifs˜,e˜,i˜U2, (16) and (18) derive that
    LV(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+M1(1δp)βψ1ψ3ψ2+M1=(1δp)βψ1+M11.
    Case III. Ifs˜,e˜,i˜U3, (A1) and (19) yield that
    LVbbs˜(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜αe˜i˜+(1δp)βψ3+2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ423b(1δp)βα3+2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ42<0.
    Case IV. Ifs˜,e˜,i˜U4, (A1) and (20) imply that
    LVbs˜+e˜+i˜+M1bψ4+M11.
    Case V. Ifs˜,e˜,i˜U5, it follows from (A1), (16) and (21) that
    LVδps˜r˜γi˜r˜+M1δpψ1ψ4γψ3ψ4+M1=δpψ1γψ3+M11.
    Define
    ϕ=max1,3b(1δp)βα3+2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ42<0.
    Obviously, one can see thatLVϕ<0 for alls˜,e˜,i˜U˜\U, which shows that Assumption 1(ii) is satisfied. On the other hand, there exists a positive number
    Z=min{σ121s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2s˜2,(σ12s˜2+σ221e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42×1s˜e˜i˜2)e˜2,σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ321i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2i˜2,s˜,e˜,i˜U˜}
    such that
    i,j=13aijξiξj=σ121s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2s˜2ξ12+(σ12s˜2+σ221e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2)e˜2ξ22+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ321i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜2i˜2ξ32Z|ξ|2,s˜,e˜,i˜U˜,ξR3,
    which shows that Assumption 1(i) is satisfied. Consequently, the system (6) has a unique stationary distributionπ(·) and it has ergodic property. The proof of Theorem 4 is complete. ☐

    6. Simulations and Conclusions

    6.1. Simulations

    Next, in order to support the results of the above theorems, we carry out some computer simulations.
    InFigure 1, takes˜(0)=0.3,e˜(0)=0.25,i˜(0)=0.15,b=0.15,β=0.5,γ=0.3,α=0.2,δ=0.25,p=0.2,ε=0.15 andσ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.25. Then
    M1=maxσ12,1ϱ2σ32,σ42=0.0625<2(1ϱ)α=0.0652
    and
    ε=0.15<(1δp)β=0.475<ε+γ+b=0.6
    satisfy the parameter conditions in Theorem 2, we can get that the exposed and infective individuals go to extinction almost surely. Obviously,Figure 1 validates our results of the Theorem 2.
    InFigure 2, takes˜(0)=0.15,e˜(0)=0.2,i˜(0)=0.15,b=0.02,β=0.9,γ=0.01,α=0.1,δ=0.02,p=0.02,ε=0.16,σ1=0.05,σ2=0.05,σ3=0.05 andσ4=0.1. Obviously,
    0.1216=b(1δp)βα3>δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ323=0.1114
    satisfies the parameter condition in Theorem 3, then
    0.0342=i˜̲lim infti˜(t)lim supti˜(t)i˜¯=0.9766,
    we can get that the infective individualsi˜(t) are permanent in mean almost surely. As expected,Figure 2 confirms our results of the Theorem 3.
    FromFigure 2 andFigure 3, a set of large stochastic parameter valuesσ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.25 can lead to infective individuals go to extinction (seeFigure 2), while infective individuals can be permanent in mean under the condition of a set of small stochastic parameter valuesσ1=σ2=σ3=0.05 andσ4=0.1 (seeFigure 3).
    InFigure 3, takes˜(0)=0.15,e˜(0)=0.2,i˜(0)=0.15,b=0.02,β=2.1,γ=0.01,α=0.2,δ=0.02,p=0.02,ε=0.1 andσ1=σ2=σ3=σ4=0.01. Then
    0.2033=b(1δp)βα3>2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ423=0.1738
    satisfies the parameter condition in Theorem 4, we can get that the stochastic system (6) has a unique stationary distributionπ(·) and it has ergodic property.Figure 3 indicates that the solution of system (6) swings up and down in a small neighborhood. According to the density functions inFigure 3d–f, we can see that there exists a stationary distribution. As expected,Figure 3 supports our results of the Theorem 4.
    TheFigure 1,Figure 2 andFigure 3 above show that the large white noise value can lead to infectious diseases to go to extinction, which implies that stochastic fluctuations can suppress the disease outbreak, while the small white noise value can cause infectious diseases to be persistent. In addition, TheFigure 3 also shows the stochastic system (6) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution under appropriate conditions. Therefore, the numerical simulation examples are completely consistent with the theoretical results of the Theorems 2–4.

    6.2. Conclusions

    In this paper, we apply stochastic analysis methods to study the global dynamics of a high-dimensional stochastic reduced proportional SEIR epidemic system which makes the analysis novel and complex. We obtain the existence of a unique global positive solution and parameter conditions of extinction or permanence in mean. Furthermore, the solution of the stochastic system has a unique ergodic stationary distribution under certain sufficient parameter conditions. Cubic terms ofs˜,e˜,i˜ and multiple stochastic terms fordBi(t)(i=1,2,3,4) in system (6) make the analysis more difficult and complex than the models in [34,36]. Some ingenious inequality techniques are used to deal with cubic terms ofs˜,e˜,i˜ of system (6). Therefore, compare with previous methods and research results, we develop previous methods and improve the main results of previous studies.
    We summarize the main conclusions as follows:
    (I) When
    M1<2(1ϱ)α,ε(1δp)β<ε+γ+b
    hold, then
    lim suptlne˜(t)+ϱi˜(t)t<0a.s.
    That is to say, the exposed and infective individuals go to extinction almost surely.
    (II) When
    b(1δp)βα3>δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ323
    holds, then
    i˜̲lim infti˜(t)lim supti˜(t)i˜¯a.s.
    That is to say, the infective individualsi˜(t) are permanent in mean almost surely.
    (III) When
    b(1δp)βα3>2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ423
    holds, then the system (6) has a unique stationary distributionπ(·) and it has ergodic property.
    By comparing the above conclusions (II) and (III), we can see that when system (6) has a ergodic stationary distribution, then the infective individualsi˜(t) are permanent in mean almost surely. However, it is not applicable in reverse. The above results of Theorems 2–4 show a large stochastic disturbance can cause infectious diseases to go to extinction, in other words, the persistent infectious disease of a deterministic system can become extinct due to the white noise stochastic disturbance. This implies that stochastic fluctuations can suppress the disease outbreak.

    Author Contributions

    The work presented in this paper has been accomplished through contributions of all authors. All authors contributed equally to the writing of this paper. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

    Acknowledgments

    This work are supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (11561004), the SDUST Research Fund (2014TDJH102), Joint Innovative Center for Safe And Effective Mining Technology and Equipment of Coal Resources, Shandong Province, the Research Fund for the Taishan Scholar Project of Shandong Province of China, SDUST Innovation Fund for Graduate Students (SDKDYC180226).

    Conflicts of Interest

    The authors declare no conflict of interest.

    Appendix A.

    Proof of Theorem 1.
    Define aC2-functionV:R+3R+ by
    Vs˜,e˜,i˜=ln1s˜e˜i˜lns˜lne˜lni˜3.
    dV=LVdt+σ14s˜1dB1(t)+σ24e˜1dB2(t)+σ34i˜1dB3(t)+σ434s˜4e˜4i˜dB4(t),
    where
    LV=b2s˜+e˜+i˜1s˜1s˜e˜i˜(1δp)βi˜2s˜+e˜+i˜11s˜e˜i˜(δp+b)2s˜+e˜+i˜11s˜e˜i˜+εi˜4s˜+4e˜+4i˜31s˜e˜i˜+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ421s˜e˜i˜24s˜+4e˜+4i˜31s˜e˜i˜σ12s˜2s˜+e˜+i˜11s˜e˜i˜+(1δp)βs˜i˜s˜+2e˜+i˜1e˜1s˜e˜i˜(α+b)s˜+2e˜+i˜11s˜e˜i˜σ22e˜s˜+2e˜+i˜11s˜e˜i˜+αe˜s˜+e˜+2i˜1i˜1s˜e˜i˜(ε+γ+b)s˜+e˜+2i˜11s˜e˜i˜σ32i˜s˜+e˜+2i˜11s˜e˜i˜+12σ124s˜22s˜+1+12σ224e˜22e˜+1+12σ324i˜22i˜+1+12σ4231s˜e˜i˜2+s˜+e˜+i˜2,
    sincer˜=1s˜e˜i˜ andδp<1, thus
    LVbs˜r˜s˜r˜(1δp)βi˜s˜r˜r˜(δp+b)s˜r˜r˜+εi˜14r˜r˜+(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜r˜e˜r˜(α+b)e˜r˜r˜+αe˜i˜r˜i˜r˜(ε+γ+b)i˜r˜r˜+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+12σ42=br˜bs˜βs˜i˜r˜+βi˜+βδps˜i˜r˜βδpi˜δps˜r˜+δpbs˜r˜+b+εi˜r˜4εi˜εi˜r˜+ε+βs˜i˜r˜βs˜i˜e˜βδps˜i˜r˜+βδps˜i˜e˜αe˜r˜+αbe˜r˜+b+αe˜r˜αe˜i˜γi˜r˜+γbi˜r˜+b+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+12σ42br˜bs˜r˜be˜r˜bi˜r˜+βi˜+δp+3b+ε+βs˜i˜e˜(δp1)+α+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+12σ42β+δp+4b+ε+α+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+12σ42:=M0,
    whereM0 is a positive constant.  ☐

    Appendix B.

    Proof of Theorem 2.
    LV=1e˜+ϱi˜(1δp)βs˜i˜(α+b)e˜+εe˜i˜+ϱαe˜ϱ(ε+γ+b)i˜+ϱεi˜2+12σ12s˜2+1211e˜+ϱi˜2σ22e˜2+121ϱ2e˜+ϱi˜2σ32i˜2+12σ421s˜e˜i˜2,
    sinces˜=1e˜i˜r˜ andδp<1, thus
    LV1e˜+ϱi˜[(βδpβϱ(ε+γ+b))i˜+(εβ+δpβ)e˜i˜+(ϱεβ+δpβ)i˜2+(ϱ1)αe˜]+12σ12s˜2+1211e˜+ϱi˜2σ22e˜2+121ϱ2e˜+ϱi˜2σ32i˜2+12σ421s˜e˜i˜2.
    Take
    ϱ=(ε+γ+bα)+(ε+γ+bα)2+4(1δp)αβ2α
    such thatϱ(ϱ1)α=βδpβϱ(ε+γ+b). Here, it is easy to see thatϱ(0,1). Then one can derive that
    dV(ϱ1)α+12σ12s˜2+121ϱ2σ32i˜2+12σ421s˜e˜i˜2dtσ1s˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜1e˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜ϱe˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB3(t)σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t)(ϱ1)α+M12dtσ1s˜dB1(t)+σ2e˜1e˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB2(t)+σ3i˜ϱe˜ϱi˜e˜+ϱi˜dB3(t)σ41s˜e˜i˜dB4(t),
    hereM1=maxσ12,1ϱ2σ32,σ42.  ☐

    Appendix C.

    Proof of Theorem 3.
    lns˜(t)t+lne˜(t)t+lni˜(t)t=b1s˜(1δp)βi˜+3εi˜+(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+αe˜i˜+32σ12s˜2+32σ22e˜2+32σ32i˜2+32σ421s˜e˜i˜2δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32+lns˜(0)t+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M̲(t)tb1s˜+(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜+αe˜i˜(1δp)βi˜(δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32)+lns˜(0)t+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M̲(t)t3b(1δp)βα3(1δp)βi˜(δp+3b+α+ε+γ+12σ12+12σ22+12σ32)+lns˜(0)t+lne˜(0)t+lni˜(0)t+M̲(t)t.
     ☐

    Appendix D.

    Proof of Theorem 4.
    Now let us define a positive-definite functionV by
    V=lns˜+e˜+i˜lns˜lne˜lni˜lnr˜:=V1+V2+V3+V4+V5.
    From the Itô’s formula yields
    LV1=1s˜+e˜+i˜[b(δp+b)s˜+εs˜i˜be˜+εe˜i˜(ε+γ+b)i˜+εi˜2σ12s˜2σ22e˜2σ32i˜2+s˜+e˜+i˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2]+r˜2σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42s˜+e˜+i˜22s˜+e˜+i˜2=bs˜+e˜+i˜+δps˜+(ε+γ)i˜s˜+e˜+i˜εi˜+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2s˜+e˜+i˜σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+12σ42r˜2+r˜2σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜22s˜+e˜+i˜2+b.
    Similarly,
    LV2=bs˜+(1δp)βi˜εi˜+δp+b+12σ1212σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2,LV3=(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜εi˜+α+b+12σ2212σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2,LV4=αe˜i˜εi˜+ε+γ+b+12σ3212σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2,LV5=δps˜r˜γi˜r˜εi˜+b+12σ4212σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2+σ42r˜2.
    Therefore,
    LV=bs˜+e˜+i˜bs˜(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜αe˜i˜5εi˜δps˜r˜γi˜r˜+δps˜+(ε+γ)i˜s˜+e˜+i˜+σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜2s˜+e˜+i˜+r˜2σ12s˜2+σ22e˜2+σ32i˜22s˜+e˜+i˜2+(1δp)βi˜(3σ12s˜2+3σ22e˜2+3σ32i˜2+52σ42r˜2)+12σ12+σ22+σ32+σ42+δp+5b+α+ε+γbs˜(1δp)βs˜i˜e˜αe˜i˜bs˜+e˜+i˜δps˜r˜γi˜r˜+M1,
    here
    M1=(1δp)β+2δp+5b+α+2ε+2γ+2σ12+2σ22+2σ32+12σ42.
     ☐

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    Entropy 20 00376 g001 550
    Figure 1. Time sequence diagram of system (6) for extinctions of the exposed and infective individuals.
    Figure 1. Time sequence diagram of system (6) for extinctions of the exposed and infective individuals.
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    Entropy 20 00376 g002 550
    Figure 2. Time sequence diagram of system (6) for permanence in mean of the infective individuals.
    Figure 2. Time sequence diagram of system (6) for permanence in mean of the infective individuals.
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    Entropy 20 00376 g003 550
    Figure 3. (ac) represent the solutions of system (6); (de) stand for the density functions ofs˜(t),e˜(t) andi˜(t), respectively.
    Figure 3. (ac) represent the solutions of system (6); (de) stand for the density functions ofs˜(t),e˜(t) andi˜(t), respectively.
    Entropy 20 00376 g003

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    Han, X.; Li, F.; Meng, X. Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size.Entropy2018,20, 376. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20050376

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    Han X, Li F, Meng X. Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size.Entropy. 2018; 20(5):376. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20050376

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    Han, Xiaofeng, Fei Li, and Xinzhu Meng. 2018. "Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size"Entropy 20, no. 5: 376. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20050376

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    Han, X., Li, F., & Meng, X. (2018). Dynamics Analysis of a Nonlinear Stochastic SEIR Epidemic System with Varying Population Size.Entropy,20(5), 376. https://doi.org/10.3390/e20050376

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