Download This PaperWhat Caused the Crime Decline?
139 PagesPosted: 20 Feb 2015
Oliver K. Roeder
University of Texas at Austin - Department of Economics; New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice
Lauren-Brooke Eisen
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice
Julia Bowling
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Inimai M. Chettiar
New York University School of Law; New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice
Date Written: February 12, 2015
Abstract
What Caused the Crime Decline? Examines one of the nation’s least understood recent phenomena – the dramatic decline in crime nationwide over the past two decades – and analyzes various theories for why it occurred, by reviewing more than 40 years of data from all 50 states and the 50 largest cities. It concludes that over-harsh criminal justice policies, particularly increased incarceration, which rose even more dramatically over the same period, were not the main drivers of the crime decline. In fact, the report finds that increased incarceration has been declining in its effectiveness as a crime control tactic for more than 30 years. Its effect on crime rates since 1990 has been limited, and has been non-existent since 2000.
More important were various social, economic, and environmental factors, such as growth in income and an aging population. The introduction of CompStat, a data-driven policing technique, also played a significant role in reducing crime in cities that introduced it.
The report concludes that considering the immense social, fiscal, and economic costs of mass incarceration, programs that improve economic opportunities, modernize policing practices, and expand treatment and rehabilitation programs, all could be a better public safety investment.
Keywords: mass incarceration, crime, economics, criminal justice, policing
Suggested Citation:Suggested Citation
Oliver K. Roeder (Contact Author)
University of Texas at Austin - Department of Economics (email )
Austin, TX 78712
United States
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice (email )
161 Avenue of the Americas
12th Floor
New York, NY 10013
United States
Lauren-Brooke Eisen
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice (email )
161 Avenue of the Americas
12th Floor
New York, NY 10013
United States
HOME PAGE:http://www.brennancenter.org/expert/lauren-brooke-eisen
Julia Bowling
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice (email )
161 Avenue of the Americas
12th Floor
New York, NY 10013
United States
HOME PAGE:http://https://www.brennancenter.org/expert/julia-bowling
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Columbia University - Columbia Business School, Finance (email )
3022 Broadway
814 Uris Hall
New York, NY 10027
United States
(212) 854-0671 (Phone)
(212) 662-8474 (Fax)
HOME PAGE:http://www.josephstiglitz.com
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Inimai M. Chettiar
New York University School of Law (email )
40 Washington Square South
New York, NY 10012-1099
United States
New York University (NYU) - Brennan Center for Justice (email )
161 Avenue of the Americas
12th Floor
New York, NY 10013
United States
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