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Home> Journals> Statist. Sci.> Volume 14> Issue 4>Article
Open Access
November 1999Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors
Jennifer A. Hoeting,David Madigan,Adrian E. Raftery,Chris T. Volinsky
Statist. Sci.14(4):382-417(November 1999).DOI: 10.1214/ss/1009212519
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Abstract

Standard statistical practice ignores model uncertainty. Data analysts typically select a model from some class of models and then proceed as if the selected model had generated the data. This approach ignores the uncertainty in model selection, leading to over-confident inferences and decisions that are more risky than one thinks they are. Bayesian model averaging (BMA)provides a coherent mechanism for accounting for this model uncertainty. Several methods for implementing BMA have recently emerged. We discuss these methods and present a number of examples.In these examples, BMA provides improved out-of-sample predictive performance. We also provide a catalogue of currently available BMA software.

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Jennifer A. Hoeting.David Madigan.Adrian E. Raftery.Chris T. Volinsky."Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors."Statist. Sci.14(4)382 - 417,November 1999.https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1009212519

Information

Published: November 1999
First available in Project Euclid: 24 December 2001

zbMATH:1059.62525
MathSciNet:MR1765176
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/ss/1009212519

Keywords: Bayesian graphical models, Bayesian model averaging, learning, Markov chain Monte Carlo, model uncertainty

Rights: Copyright © 1999 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.14 • No. 4 • November 1999
Jennifer A. Hoeting, David Madigan, Adrian E. Raftery, Chris T. Volinsky "Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors," Statistical Science, Statist. Sci. 14(4), 382-417, (November 1999)
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