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Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets

Naturevolume 545, pages467–471 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health1,2,3,4,5, crop yields5,6 and climate5,7 worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are key PM2.5 and ozone precursors8,9. Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NOx emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

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Figure 1: Real-world NOx emission factors by vehicle emissions standard in key regions.
Figure 2: NOx emissions by scenario and region.
Figure 3: Change in PM2.5 and ozone concentration for the scenario pairs shown.
Figure 4: Annual PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths.

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ArticleOpen access11 September 2020

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Acknowledgements

Support was provided by the Hewlett Foundation, the ClimateWorks Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, Energy Foundation China and the NASA Health and Air Quality Applied System Team. We are grateful to F. Posada, T. Dallman, J. German, R. Muncrief, A. Bandivadekar, H. He, D. Rutherford and F. Kamakaté for assistance with regional diesel NOx emissions inventories; G. Bishop for access to US remote sensing data; J. Apte and N. Fann for discussions on the health impact methodology; and R. van Dingenen for assistance with the crop impact methodology.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Forrest Lacey

    Present address: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  2. Vicente Franco

    Present address: European Commission Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels, Belgium

  3. Susan C. Anenberg and Joshua Miller: These authors contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Health Analytics LLC, Washington, DC, USA

    Susan C. Anenberg

  2. International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC, USA

    Joshua Miller, Ray Minjares, Li Du & Vicente Franco

  3. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Daven K. Henze & Forrest Lacey

  4. Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York, UK

    Christopher S. Malley & Lisa Emberson

  5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Zbigniew Klimont & Chris Heyes

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Contributions

S.A. and J.M. contributed equally. S.A., J.M., V.F., D.H. and R.M. planned the research, J.M., L.D., V.F. and R.M. developed the on-road diesel NOx emissions inventories, Z.K. and C.H. developed the inventories of all other emissions, D.H. performed the model simulations, S.A., C.M., F.L. and D.H. performed the impact calculations, all authors analysed the results, and S.A. and J.M. wrote the paper with help from all authors.

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Correspondence toSusan C. Anenberg orJoshua Miller.

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Reviewer InformationNature thanks R. Burnett and the other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Figure 1 Ozone-related percentage crop production loss by region and scenario.

Results are shown for maize, wheat and soy globally and in major producing regions (central estimate and uncertainty bars showing range using two exposure metrics).

Extended Data Figure 2 Radiative forcing from change in NOx emissions.

Results shown are central estimates and error bars show 95% confidence intervals based on error in the conversion from concentrations to climate impacts.

Extended Data Figure 3 Annual on-road diesel vehicle NOx emissions in 2015.

a, Total on-road diesel vehicle NOx emissions for the baseline in 2015 (Mt/yr) with percentage change relative to Baseline-2015 for each scenario, where Baseline-2015 labels indicate millions of tons of on-road diesel NOx emissions.b, Comparison of the 2015 baseline with theoretical compliance with emission limits (Limits-2015), where bars indicate uncertainty for HDV emission limits (seeSupplementary Information) and Baseline-2015, calculated as described in the Methods.

Extended Data Figure 4 Diesel LDV and HDV activity.

a, By region from 2015 to 2040.b, By Euro-equivalent standard and policy scenario in 2015 and 2040.

Extended Data Figure 5 Distance-specific NOx emission rates.

Uncertainty bands are based on engine emission limits by model year. HHDT, heavy heavy-duty trucks; MHDT, medium heavy-duty trucks. Lines are guides to the eye.

Extended Data Figure 6 Review of diesel NOx emission factors.

a, HDV in EU-28. (Data are taken from refs17,34,44,15 and33. We note that ref.17 indicates that remote sensing estimates are typical of urban driving conditions in the UK.)b, HDV in China. (Data are taken from refs73,74,36,38 and37.)c, Passenger cars in EU-28. (Data are taken from refs75,34,76 and17.) Emission limits are from corresponding regulations. Data from ref.75 are averaged over urban, rural and highway for diesel cars weighing 2.5–3.5 tons.)d, Light commercial vehicles in EU-28. (Data are taken from refs75 and34.) Ina andb, horizontal lines indicate distance-based emission factors based on engine emission limits. Ina andb, horizontal bars indicate upper and lower bound for emission factor estimates, calculated as described in the Methods.

Extended Data Table 1 Global air quality and health impacts of emission scenarios in 2015 and 2040
Extended Data Table 2 Regional PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2015 and 2040
Extended Data Table 3 Selected diesel NOx emission factors, emission limits and multipliers

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

This file contains Supplementary Methods which include additional detail on the emission scenario development, impact assessment methods, and results. It also contains Supplementary Tables 1-6, which show policy implementation timelines, emission factor studies reviewed, comparison of mortality results to other studies, mortality results by vehicle type, years of life lost results, and crop impact parameters. (PDF 904 kb)

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Anenberg, S., Miller, J., Minjares, R.et al. Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets.Nature545, 467–471 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22086

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Editorial Summary

The dangers of diesel emissions

Vehicle emissions such as nitrogen oxides contribute to air pollution that can be harmful to human health and the environment. Diesel vehicles produce about 20 per cent of global nitrogen oxide emissions and emit more under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. This paper finds that across 11 markets, representing about 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nitrogen oxide emissions exceed certification limits for one-third of on-road heavy-duty vehicles and for over half of light-duty vehicles. In 2015, the 'excess' diesel-related nitrogen oxide emissions were associated with around 38,000 deaths related to fine particulate matter and ozone worldwide, including roughly 10 per cent of all ozone-related deaths in the European Union member states. The authors find that heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel-related nitrogen oxide emissions and associated health impacts in most regions.

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