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Large-scale migration into Britain during the Middle to Late Bronze Age
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- Michael Isakov ORCID:orcid.org/0000-0001-6468-59083 na1,
- Thomas Booth4 na1,
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- Kadir Toykan Özdoğan9,
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- …
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Naturevolume 601, pages588–594 (2022)Cite this article
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Abstract
Present-day people from England and Wales have more ancestry derived from early European farmers (EEF) than did people of the Early Bronze Age1. To understand this, here we generated genome-wide data from 793 individuals, increasing data from the Middle to the Late Bronze Age and Iron Age in Britain by 12-fold, and western and central Europe by 3.5-fold. Between 1000 and 875bc, EEF ancestry increased in southern Britain (England and Wales) but not northern Britain (Scotland) due to incorporation of migrants who arrived at this time and over previous centuries, and who were genetically most similar to ancient individuals from France. These migrants contributed about half the ancestry of people of England and Wales from the Iron Age, thereby creating a plausible vector for the spread of early Celtic languages into Britain. These patterns are part of a broader trend of EEF ancestry becoming more similar across central and western Europe in the Middle to the Late Bronze Age, coincident with archaeological evidence of intensified cultural exchange2,3,4,5,6. There was comparatively less gene flow from continental Europe during the Iron Age, and the independent genetic trajectory in Britain is also reflected in the rise of the allele conferring lactase persistence to approximately 50% by this time compared to approximately 7% in central Europe where it rose rapidly in frequency only a millennium later. This suggests that dairy products were used in qualitatively different ways in Britain and in central Europe over this period.
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Data availability
The raw data are available as aligned sequences (.bam files) through the European Nucleotide Archive under accession numberPRJEB47891. The newly generated genotype data are available as a Supplementary Data file. The previously published data co-analysed with our newly reported data can be obtained as described in the original publications, which are all referenced in Supplementary Table3; a compiled dataset that includes the merged genotypes used in this paper is available as the Allen Ancient DNA Resource athttps://reich.hms.harvard.edu/allen-ancient-dna-resourceaadr-downloadable-genotypes-present-day-and-ancient-dna-data. Any other relevant data are available from the corresponding authors on reasonable request.
Code availability
This study uses publicly available software, which we fully reference.
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Acknowledgements
We thank P. Csengeri, T. de Rider, M. Giesen, E. Melis, A. Parkin and A. Schmitt for their contribution to sample selection and collection of archaeological data; R. Crellin, J. Koch, K. Kristiansen and G. Kroonen for comments on the manuscript; A. Williamson for manually revising Y chromosome haplogroup determinations and making corrections to nine; and M. Lee for assistance with data entry. This work was funded in part by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 834087; the COMMIOS Project to I.A.). M.N. was supported by the Croatian Science Fund grant (HRZZ IP-2016-06-1450). P.V., M.Dobeš and Z.V. were supported by the Ministry of Culture of the Czech Republic (DKRVO 2019-2023/7.I.c, 00023272). M.E. was supported by Czech Academy of Sciences award Praemium Academiae. M.Dobisíková and A.Danielisová were supported by the grant RVO 67985912 of the Institute of Archaeology of the Czech Academy of Sciences. M.G.B.F. was funded by The Leverhulme Trust via a Doctoral Scholarship scheme awarded to M.Pala and M.B.R. Support to M.Legge came from the South, West & Wales Doctoral Training Partnership. M.G.’s osteological analyses were funded by Culture Vannin. A.S.-N. was supported by the János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. T.H., T.S. and K.K.’s work was supported by a grant from the Hungarian Research, Development and Innovation Office (project number: FK128013). We acknowledge support for radiocarbon dating and stable isotope analyses as well as access to skeletal material from Manx National Heritage and A. Fox. Dating analysis was funded by Leverhulme Trust grant RPG-388. M.G.T. and I.B. were supported by a Wellcome Trust Investigator Award (project 100713/Z/12/Z). I.O. was supported by a Ramón y Cajal grant from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spanish Government (RYC2019-027909-I). The research directed at Harvard was funded by NIH grants GM100233 and HG012287, by John Templeton Foundation grant 61220, by a gift from Jean-François Clin, and by the Allen Discovery Center program, a Paul G. Allen Frontiers Group advised program of the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation. D.R. is also an Investigator of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.
Author information
These authors contributed equally: Nick Patterson, Michael Isakov, Thomas Booth, Lindsey Büster, Claire-Elise Fischer
Authors and Affiliations
Department of Human Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Nick Patterson, Harald Ringbauer, Ali Akbari, Iosif Lazaridis & David Reich
Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, USA
Nick Patterson, Harald Ringbauer, Matthew Mah, Swapan Mallick, Adam Micco, Nadin Rohland & David Reich
Harvard College, Cambridge, MA, USA
Michael Isakov
Department of Earth Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
Thomas Booth, Selina Brace & Ian Barnes
Department of Archaeology, University of York, York, UK
Lindsey Büster, Claire-Elise Fischer, Madeleine Bleasdale, Helen Goodchild, Oliver Craig & Ian Armit
Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
Iñigo Olalde, Ali Akbari, Nicole Adamski, Rebecca Bernardos, Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht, Kimberly Callan, Elizabeth Curtis, Aisling Kearns, Ann Marie Lawson, Iosif Lazaridis, Matthew Mah, Swapan Mallick, Adam Micco, Megan Michel, Jonas Oppenheimer, Lijun Qiu, Kristin Stewardson, J. Noah Workman, Fatma Zalzala, Zhao Zhang, Alfredo Coppa, Nadin Rohland & David Reich
BIOMICs Research Group, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Iñigo Olalde
Ikerbasque—Basque Foundation of Science, Bilbao, Spain
Iñigo Olalde
Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Olivia Cheronet, Lea Demetz, Kellie Sara Duffett Carlson, Daniel M. Fernandes, Suzanne Freilich, Kirsten Mandl, Guillermo Bravo Morante, Kadir Toykan Özdoğan, Constanze Schattke, Alfredo Coppa, Maria Teschler-Nicola & Ron Pinhasi
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Boston, MA, USA
Nicole Adamski, Nasreen Broomandkhoshbacht, Kimberly Callan, Elizabeth Curtis, Ann Marie Lawson, Matthew Mah, Swapan Mallick, Megan Michel, Jonas Oppenheimer, Kristin Stewardson, Fatma Zalzala & David Reich
Department of Human Genetics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands
Eveline Altena & Peter de Knijff
Servizio di Bioarcheologia, Museo delle Civiltà, Rome, Italy
Francesca Candilio
Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Brendan Culleton
Department of Biological and Geographical Sciences, School of Applied Sciences, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK
Ceiridwen J. Edwards
CIAS, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
Daniel M. Fernandes, M. George B. Foody, Maria Pala & Martin B. Richards
INSITU S.C.P. Centelles, Barcelona, Spain
Bibiana Agustí
Oxford Archaeology, Oxford, UK
Tim Allen, Fraser Brown, Alex Davies, Chris Hayden, Gill Hey, Louise Loe & Lauren McIntyre
Městské Muzeum v Čelákovicích, Čelákovice, Czech Republic
Katalin Almássy
National Museum of Antiquities, Leiden, Netherlands
Luc Amkreutz
Faculty of Archaeology, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands
Luc Amkreutz & Harry Fokkens
Independent Researcher, Soham, Ely, UK
Abigail Ash
Institut National de Recherches Archéologiques Préventives (INRAP), Paris, France
Christèle Baillif-Ducros, Sylvain Canet, Sébastien Chauvin & Cécile Paresys
Cotswold Archaeology, Cirencester, UK
Alistair Barclay, Pippa Bradley & Sharon Clough
Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
László Bartosiewicz
Leeds Museums and Galleries, Leeds Discovery Centre, Leeds, UK
Katherine Baxter
Department of Anthropology, Hungarian Natural History Museum, Budapest, Hungary
Zsolt Bernert, Tamás Hajdu & Tamás Szeniczey
Institute of Preservation of Archaeological Heritage of Northwest Bohemia, Most, Czech Republic
Jan Blažek
Stratum Ltd, Seget Donji, Croatia
Mario Bodružić
TRACES, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Toulouse, France
Philippe Boissinot
School of History, Classics and Archaeology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Clive Bonsall, Manuel Fernández-Götz, Kathleen McSweeney & Catriona Pickard
Cambridge Archaeological Unit, Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Marcus Brittain, Christopher Evans, Mark Knight, Benjamin Neil, Ricky Patten, Jonathan Tabor & Rob Wiseman
Corinium Museum, Cirencester, UK
Alison Brookes & James Harris
Wiltshire Museum, Devizes, UK
Lisa Brown
South West Heritage Trust, Somerset Heritage Centre, Taunton, UK
Richard Brunning, Amal Khreisheh & Steve Minnitt
Department of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
Chelsea Budd & Malcolm Lillie
Kaducej Ltd, Split, Croatia
Josip Burmaz & Dženi Los
Instituto de Medicina Legal y Ciencias Forenses de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Silvia Carnicero-Cáceres
Université de Franche Comté/UMR Chrono-Environnement, Besançon, France
Morana Čaušević-Bully
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Andrew Chamberlain
Archaeological Museum Zadar, Zadar, Croatia
Natalija Čondić
Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome, La Sapienza, Rome, Italy
Alfredo Coppa
Department of Archaeology, Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in Archaeology, Faculty of Arts, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Matija Črešnar, Milan Horňák & Biba Teržan
Institute for the Protection of Cultural Heritage of Slovenia, Conservation Centre, Centre for Preventive Archaeology, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Matija Črešnar & Philip Mason
School of Natural Sciences, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, UK
Vicki Cummings
Hungarian National Museum, Budapest, Hungary
Szabolcs Czifra
Institute of Archaeology of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
Alžběta Danielisová, Miroslav Dobeš & Michal Ernée
Tees Archaeology, Hartlepool, UK
Robin Daniels
Guernsey Museums & Galleries, St Peter Port, UK
Philip de Jersey
Amgueddfa Cymru—National Museum Wales, Cardiff, UK
Jody Deacon
Kuny Domokos Museum, Tata, Hungary
Csilla Deminger
Research Laboratory for Archaeology, School of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Peter W. Ditchfield
Institute of Archaeology, Zagreb, Croatia
Marko Dizdar
Department of Anthropology, The National Museum, Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
Miluše Dobisíková, Petr Veleminsky & Zdeněk Vytlačil
Department of Archaeology, Dobó István Castle Museum, Eger, Hungary
László Domboróczki
The Orkney Museum, Kirkwall, UK
Gail Drinkall
Archaeological Museum in Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ana Đukić
British Geological Survey, Keyworth Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, UK
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Archaeological Museum Osijek, Osijek, Croatia
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Archaeology and Ancient History, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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School of History, Classics and Archaeology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Chris Fowler
Manx National Heritage, Eiraght Ashoonagh Vannin, Manx Museum, Douglas, UK
Allison Fox
Ásatárs Ltd, Kecskemét, Hungary
Zsolt Gallina
Heritage and Archaeological Research Practice (HARP), Edinburgh, UK
Michelle Gamble
Instituto Internacional de Investigaciones Prehistóricas de Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Manuel R. González Morales
Grupo EvoAdapta, Departamento de Ciencias Históricas, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
Borja González-Rabanal & Ana B. Marín-Arroyo
The Salisbury Museum, Salisbury, UK
Adrian Green
Department of Biological Anthropology, Institute of Biology, Faculty of Science, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
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VUhbs Archaeology, VU University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Diederick Habermehl
Department of Biological Anthropology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
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Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), East Kilbride, UK
Derek Hamilton
Bureau Archeologie en Bodemkwaliteit, Gemeente Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands
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Musée Saint-Remi, Ville de Reims, Reims, France
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Independent Researcher, Mesterháza, Hungary
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Jósa András Museum, Nyíregyháza, Hungary
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Cornwall Archaeology Unit, Truro, UK
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Faculty of Humanities, University of Primorska, Koper, Slovenia
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Musée de La Cour d’Or, Metz, France
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East Dorset Antiquarian Society (EDAS), Dorset, UK
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Institute of Archaeology, Research Centre for the Humanities, Eötvös Loránd Research Network, Budapest, Hungary
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Groningen Institute of Archaeology, Groningen University, Groningen, Netherlands
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Geology and Geochemistry Cluster, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Damjanich János Museum, Szolnok, Hungary
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Archaeological Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Nitra, Slovakia
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University of Szeged, Faculty of Arts, Department of Archaeology, Szeged, Hungary
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Musee d’Histoire et d’Archeologie, Vannes, France
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School of History, Archaeology and Religion, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
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Wessex Archaeology, Salisbury, UK
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Group EcoPast. CRETUS. Area of Archaeology, Department of History, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
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Lower Winskill Farm, Langcliffe, UK
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Geophiz.biz, West Heslerton, UK
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Zavičajni Muzej Grada Rovinja, Rovinj, Croatia
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Royal Pavilion and Museums Trust, Brighton, UK
Andy Maxted
Walcherse Archeologische Dienst, Middelburg, Netherlands
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Institute of Archaeogenomics, Research Centre for the Humanities, Eötvös Loránd Research Network, Budapest, Hungary
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Conservation Department in Šibenik, Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Croatia, Šibenik, Croatia
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Museum of West Bohemia, Department of Prehistory, Pilsen, Czech Republic
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Royal Cornwall Museum, Truro, Cornwall, UK
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Archaeological Museum of Istria, Pula, Croatia
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National Museum of Kikinda, Kikinda, Serbia
Lidija Milasinovic
Department of Archaeology, Durham University, Durham, UK
Joanna Moore
MOLES Archaeology, Courtwood House, Sheffield, UK
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University of Bristol Spelaeological Society, Bristol, UK
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Municipal Monument Preservation Institute Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
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Archaeological and Forensic Sciences, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK
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Centre for Applied Bioanthropology, Institute for Anthropological Research, Zagreb, Croatia
Mario Novak
National Trust, Dorset & Wiltshire, Tisbury, UK
Martin Papworth
Archaeological Museum, Dubrovnik Museums, Dubrovnik, Croatia
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Rómer Flóris Museum of Art and History, Győr, Hungary
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Departament de Biologia Animal, de Biologia Vegetal i d’Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain
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The City of Prague Museum, Prague, Czech Republic
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Musée Le Vergeur, Reims, France
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Independent researcher, Budapest, Hungary
Zoltán Pilling
Department of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
T. Douglas Price
Institute for Quaternary Palaeontology and Geology, Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Zagreb, Croatia
Siniša Radović
Centre for Human Bioarchaeology, Museum of London, London, UK
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National Trust For Scotland, Hermiston Quay, Edinburgh, UK
Daniel T. Rhodes
The Novium Museum, Chichester, UK
Amy Roberts
Provinciaal Archeologisch Depot Noord-Holland, Castricum, Netherlands
Jean Roefstra
Department of Prehistory and Classical Antiquity, The National Museum, Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
Pavel Sankot
Slovak National Museum—Natural History Museum, Bratislava, Slovakia
Alena Šefčáková
National Museums Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
Alison Sheridan
The Dock Museum, Barrow-in-Furness, UK
Sabine Skae
Rippl-Rónai Museum, Kaposvár, Hungary
Krisztina Somogyi
Katona József Museum Hungary, Kecskemét, Hungary
Ágnes Somogyvári
MAP Archaeological Practice, Malton, UK
Mark Stephens & Paula Ware
Wosinsky Mór Museum, Szekszárd, Hungary
Géza Szabó
MTA—ELTE Research Group for Interdisciplinary Archaeology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
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Museo del Hombre Dominicano, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Clenis Tavarez Maria
Craven Museum and Gallery, Skipton, UK
Rachel Terry
Department of Anthropology, Natural History Museum Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Maria Teschler-Nicola
Instituto Monte Bernorio de Estudios de la Antigüedad del Cantábrico (IMBEAC), Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Geografía e Historia, Departamento de Prehistoria, Historia Antigua y Arqueología, Madrid, Spain
Jesús F. Torres-Martínez
Hampshire Cultural Trust, Winchester, UK
Ross Turle
Rijksdienst voor het Cultureel Erfgoed, Amersfoort, Netherlands
Menno van der Heiden
Maritime Cultures Research Institute, Department of Art, Sciences, and Archaeology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Barbara Veselka
Research Unit: Analytical, Environmental & Geo-Chemistry, Department of Chemistry, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Barbara Veselka
Archaeological Research Services, Bakewell, UK
Clive Waddington
Swale and Thames Archaeological Survey Company, Faversham, UK
Paul Wilkinson
Keswick Museum, Keswick, UK
Eilidh Young
Krka National Park, Šibenik, Croatia
Joško Zaninović
AA AVALA s.r.o., Bratislava, Slovakia
Andrej Žitňan
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
Carles Lalueza-Fox
Department of History, University of Hull, Hull, UK
Peter Halkon
Research Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
Mark G. Thomas
Department of Anthropology, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Douglas J. Kennett
Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Department of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Hull, Hull, UK
Malcolm Lillie
Human Evolution and Archaeological Sciences, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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D.J.K., B.Cunliffe, N.R., R.Pinhasi, I.A. and D.R. supervised the study. T.B., L.Büster, C.-E.F., O.Cheronet, S.B., B.A., T.A., K.A., L.A., A.Ash, C.B.-D., A.Barclay, L.Bartosiewicz, K.B., Z.B., J.Blažek, M.Bodružić, P.Boissinot, C.Bonsall, P.Bradley, M.Brittain, A.Brookes, F.B., L.Brown, R.Brunning, C.Budd, J.Burmaz, S.Canet, S.C.-C., M.Č.-B., A.Chamberlain, S.Chauvin, S.Clough, N.Č., A.Coppa, O.Craig, M.Č., V.C., S.Czifra, A.Danielisová, R.D., A.Davis, P.d.J., J.D., C.D., P.W.D., M.Dizdar, M.Dobeš, M.Dobisíková, L.Domboróczki, G.D., A.Đukić, C.J.E., M.E., C.E., J.E., M.F.-G., S.Filipović, A.Fitzpatrick, H.F., C.F., A.Fox, Z.G., M.G., M.R.G.M., B.G.-R., A.G., K.G., D.Habermehl, T.H., D.Hamilton, J.Harris, C.H., J.Hendriks, B.H., G.H., M.H., G.I., E.I., A.M.J., M.B.K., K.K., R.A.K., A.Khreisheh, V.Kiss, J.K., M.K., L.M.K., P.F.K., A.Kozubová, G.K., V.Kulcsár, C.L.P., M.Legge, M.Leivers, L.L., O.L.-C., T.L., D.L., J.L., A.B.M.-A., P.M., D.M., A.Maxted, L.McIntyre, J.McKinley, K.McSweeney, B.M., B.G.M., M.Menđušić, M.Metlička, S.Meyer, K.Mihovilić, L.Milasinovic, S.Minnitt, J.Moore, G.Morley, G.Mullan, M.Musilová, B.N., R.N., M.N., M.Pala, M.Papworth, C.Paresys, R.Patten, D.P., K.Pesti, A.P., K.Petriščáková, C.Pichon, C.Pickard, Z.P., T.D.P., S.R., R.R., B.R., D.T.R., M.B.R., A.R., J.R., P.S., A.Šefčáková, A.Sheridan, S.S., K.Somogyi M.Šmolíková, Á.Somogyvári, M.Stephens, G.S., A.S.-N., T.S., J.Tabor, C.T.M., R.Terry, B.T., M.T.-N., J.F.T.-M., J.Trapp, R.Turle, F.U., M.v.d.H., P.V., B.V., Z.V., C.W., P.Ware, P.Wilkinson, L.W., R.W., E.Y., J.Z., A.Ž., C.L.-F., P.H., B.Cunliffe, M.Lillie, R.Pinhasi and I.A. excavated or curated samples and provided archaeological contextualization. T.B., O.Cheronet, M.Bleasdale, N.A., E.A., S.B., N.B., K.C., F.C., B.Culleton, E.C., L.Demetz, K.S.D.C., D.M.F., M.G.B.F., S.Freilich, A.Kearns, A.M.L., K.Mandl, M.Michel, G.B.M., J.O., K.T.Ö., L.Q., C.S., K.Stewardson, J.N.W., F.Z., C.J.E., D.J.K. and N.R. generated the data through sample preparation or laboratory work. N.P., M.I., L.Büster, C.-E.F., I.O., H.R., A.Akbari, O.Cheronet, M.Bleasdale, R.Bernardos, H.G., I.L., M.Mah, S.Mallick, A.Micco, Z.Z. and D.R. curated and analysed the data. N.P., M.I., T.B., L.Büster, C.-E.F., I.O., M.Bleasdale, I.A. and D.R. wrote substantial sections of the paper.
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Correspondence toRon Pinhasi,Ian Armit orDavid Reich.
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Extended data figures and tables
Extended Data Fig. 1 Post-MBA Britain was not a mix of earlier British populations.
a,qpAdm p-values for modelling British groups as a mix of Neolithic and Chalcolithic/EBA populations from England and Wales or Scotland (outgroups OldAfrica, OldSteppe, Turkey_N, CzechRepublic.Slovakia.Germany_3800.to.2700BP, Netherlands_C.EBA, Poland_Globular_Amphora, Spain.Portugal_4425.to.3800BP, CzechRepublic.Slovakia.Germany_4465.to.3800.BP, Sardinia_4100.to.2700BP, Sardinia_8100.to.4100BP, Spain.Portugal_6500.to.4425BP). We highlight p<0.05 (yellow) or p<0.005 (red). Both sources and target populations in this analysis remove outlier individuals (“Filter 2” in Supplementary Table5); we obtain qualitatively similar results when outlier individuals are not removed (not shown).b, To obtain insight into the source of the new ancestry in Britain in the IA, we computed f4(England.and.Wales_IA, α(England.and.Wales_N) + (1-α)(England.Wales_C.EBA); R1, R2) for different (R1, R2) population pairs. If England.and.Wales_IA is a simple mixture of England.and.Wales_N and England.and.Wales_C.EBA without additional ancestry, then for some mixture proportion the statistic will be consistent with zero for all (R1, R2 pairs). When (R1, R2) = (OldAfrica, OldSteppe) feasible Z-scores (Z1 in the plot) are observed when α∼0.85, showing that ~85% ancestry from England.and.Wales_C.EBA ancestry is needed to contribute the observed proportion of Steppe ancestry in England.and.Wales_IA. However, when (R1, R2) is (Balkan_N, Sardinian_8100.to.4100BP), we get infeasible Z-scores (Z2) of <−6 across the range where Z1 is remotely feasible. Thus, Iron Age people from England and Wales must have ancestry from an additional population deeply related to Sardinian Early Neolithic groups.
Extended Data Fig. 2 By-individual analysis of the British time transect.
Version of Fig.3 with the time transect extended into the Neolithic, and adding in individuals from Scotland. We plot mean estimates of EEF ancestry and one standard error bars from a Block Jackknife for all individuals in the time transect that pass basic quality control, that fit to a three-way admixture model (EEF + WHG + Yamnaya) at p>0.01 usingqpAdm, and for the Neolithic period that fit a two-way admixture model (EEF + WHG) at p>0.01. Individuals that fit the main cluster of their time are shown in blue (southern Britain) and green (Scotland), while red and orange respectively show outliers at the ancestry tails (identified either as p<0.005 based on aqpWave test from the main cluster of individuals from their period and |Z|>3 for a difference in their EEF ancestry proportion from the period, or alternatively p<0.1 and |Z|>3.5). The averages for the main clusters in both southern Britain and Scotland in each archaeological period (Neolithic, C/EBA, MBA, LBA and IA) are shown in dashed lines.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Changes in the size of the mate pool over time.
Close kin unions were rare at all periods as reflected in the paucity of individuals harbouring >50 centimorgans (cM) of their genome in runs of homozygosity (ROH) of >12 cM (red dots in top panel). The number of ROH of size 4–8 cM per individual (bottom panel) reflects the rate at which distant relatives have children, providing information about the sizes of mate pools (Ne) averaged over the hundreds of years prior to when individuals lived; thus, the broad trend of an approximately fourfold drop in Ne from the Neolithic to the IA is robust, but we may miss fluctuations on a time scale of centuries. The thick black lines represent the mean Ne obtained by fitting a mathematical model of a Gaussian process with a 600-year smoothing kernel (gray area 95% confidence interval). The horizontal grey lines show period averages from maximum likelihood which can differ from the mean obtained through the mathematical modelling if the counts do not conform well to a Gaussian process. We interrupt the fitted line for periods with too little data for accurate inference (<10 individuals in a 400-year interval centered on the point).
Extended Data Fig. 4 Frequency change over time at two phenotypically important alleles.
Present-day frequencies are shown by the red dashed lines; sample sizes for each period are labelled at the bottom of each plot; and we show means along with 95% confidence intervals (Supplementary Table8). (a–d/Top) Lactase persistence allele at rs4988235. (e–h/Bottom) Light skin pigmentation allele at rs16891982. In Britain the rise in frequency of the lactase persistence allele occurred earlier than in central Europe. This analysis is based on direct observation of alleles; imputation results are qualitatively consistent (Fig.4b).
Extended Data Fig. 5 Y chromosome haplogroup frequency changes over time.
Estimated frequency of the characteristically British Y chromosome haplogroup R1b-P312/L21/M529 in all individuals for which we are able to make a determination and which are not first-degree relatives of a higher coverage individual in the dataset. Sample sizes for each period are labelled at the bottom, and we show means and one standard error bars from a binominal distribution. The frequency increases significantly from ~0% in the whole island Neolithic, to 89±4% in the whole island C/EBA. It declines non-significantly to 79±9% in the MBA and LBA (from this time onward restricting to England and Wales because of the autosomal evidence of a change in EEF ancestry in the south but not the north). It further declines to 68±4% in the IA, a significant reduction relative to the C/EBA (P=0.014 by a two-sided chi-square contingency test). There is additional reduction from this time to the present, when the proportion is 43±3% in Wales and the west of England (P=5x10−6 for a reduction relative to the IA), and 14±2% in the center and east of England (P=3x10−32 for a reduction relative to the IA).
Extended Data Fig. 6 Version of Fig.3a contrasting Kent to the rest of southern Britain.
We show the period 2450-1 BCE. Each point corresponds to a single individual and we show means and one standard error bars from a Block Jackknife. All the high EEF outliers during the M-LBA are from Kent—the part of the island closest to France—and in addition all the individuals from 1000-875 BCE from the group of samples showing the ramp-up from MBA to IA levels of EEF ancestry are from Kent (5 from Cliffs End Farm and 3 from East Kent Access Road). This suggests the possibility that this small region was the gateway for migration to Britain during the M-LBA. Further sampling from the rest of Britain during the M-LBA is critical in order to understand the dynamics of how this ancestry spread more broadly. However, the fact that the only sample from the second half of the LBA that is not from Kent—I12624 from Blackberry Field in Potterne in Wiltshire at 950-750 BCE—already has a proportion of EEF ancestry typical of the IA in southern Britain—suggests that this ancestry began spreading more broadly by the second half of the LBA.
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Patterson, N., Isakov, M., Booth, T.et al. Large-scale migration into Britain during the Middle to Late Bronze Age.Nature601, 588–594 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04287-4
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Comments
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Michael St. Clair
I very much disagree with the methodological approach undertaken by the researchers to model the prehistory of Europe and Celtic languages. They utilize statistical analysis of ancient autosomal markers. This frequently leads to conclusions that are flagrantly inconsistent with the archaeological record, such as a massive invasion of steppe nomads into Europe during the Bronze Age. Moreover, their subdivision of the human genetic history into “ancestry” components is substandard. A more reliable methodology utilizes the
contemporary distribution of Y-chromosome single nucleotide polymorphism as the primary data source. Rather than statistical analysis, the genetic data should
be interpreted with the archeological record, the paleoclimatic record, linguistic
data, phylogenetic relationships, and other genetic perspectives such as
ancient DNA. In summary, I think it is time to move beyond statistical models
and to formulate better models based on hard empirical data.Michael St.Clair
Genetic-Linguistic Interface
mstclair@genlininterface.com
https://genlinginterface.com/


