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Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018
Naturevolume 579, pages233–239 (2020)Cite this article
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Abstract
The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4,5,6 and surface melting7,8,9 have been driven by oceanic10,11,12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet’s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.
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Data availability
The aggregated Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance data and estimated errors generated in this study are freely available athttp://imbie.org and at the NERC Polar Data Centre, https://doi.org/10.5285/8D5FF221-A470-4CC1-B7C4-CBDF383554FC.
Code availability
The code used to compute and aggregate rates of ice sheet mass change and their estimated errors are freely available athttps://github.com/IMBIE.
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Acknowledgements
This work is an outcome of the IMBIE supported by the ESA Climate Change Initiative and the NASA Cryosphere Program. A.S. was additionally supported by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling.
Author information
A list of participants and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper
Authors and Affiliations
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Andrew Shepherd, Kate Briggs, Anna E. Hogg, Ines Otosaka & Thomas Slater
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Erik Ivins, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Nicole Schlegel, Alex Gardner, Johan Nilsson, Matthieu Talpe & David Wiese
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Geruo A, Yara Mohajerani, Jeremie Mouginot, Bernd Scheuchl & Tyler Sutterley
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Ben Smith & Ian Joughin
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Michiel van den Broeke, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Melchior van Wessem & Bert Wouters
Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
Pippa Whitehouse & Grace Nield
Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France
Gerhard Krinner, Hubert Gallee & Jeremie Mouginot
Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Sophie Nowicki, Denis Felikson, Bryant Loomis & Scott Luthcke
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Tony Payne
Earth Science and Observation Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Ted Scambos
Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Cécile Agosta & Xavier Fettweis
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
Andreas Ahlstrøm, William Colgan & Kristian K. Kjeldsen
Department of Geology, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
Greg Babonis & Beata Csatho
DTU Space, National Space Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
Valentina R. Barletta, Rene Forsberg, Shfaqat Khan, Louise Sandberg Sørensen & Sebastian B. Simonsen
Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Anders A. Bjørk
LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Alejandro Blazquez
College of Marine Sciences, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
Jennifer Bonin
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Richard Cullather
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Italy
Marcus E. Engdahl
Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St Mary, UK
Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Noel Gourmelen
Institute for Planetary Geodesy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
Andreas Groh, Martin Horwath & Ludwig Schröder
Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Brian Gunter
School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK
Edward Hanna
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
Christopher Harig
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Veit Helm, Ingo Sasgen & Ludwig Schröder
Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Alexander Horvath
GeoGenetics, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Kristian K. Kjeldsen
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Hannes Konrad
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Peter L. Langen & Ruth Mottram
Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
Benoit Lecavalier & Lev Tarasov
Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, UK
Malcolm McMillan
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
Daniele Melini
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Bergen, Norway
Sebastian Mernild
Faculty of Engineering and Science, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
Sebastian Mernild
Direction of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Programs, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
Sebastian Mernild
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Sebastian Mernild
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Philip Moore
isardSAT, Barcelona, Catalonia
Gorka Moyano & Mark E. Pattle
ENVEO, Innsbruck, Austria
Thomas Nagler, Helmut Rott & Jan Wuite
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
W. Richard Peltier
Center for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX, USA
Nadège Pie & Himanshu Save
Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
Roelof Rietbroek
Department of Space Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
Ernst Schrama & Wouter van der Wal
Department of Earth Science Education, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Ki-Weon Seo
Dipartimento di Scienze Pure e Applicate, Università di Urbino “Carlo Bo”, Urbino, Italy
Giorgio Spada
Department of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
Wouter van der Wal & Bert Wouters
Geodetic Institute, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
Department of Computer Science, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
David Wilton
NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, USA
Thomas Wagner
Consortia
The IMBIE Team
- Andrew Shepherd
- , Erik Ivins
- , Eric Rignot
- , Ben Smith
- , Michiel van den Broeke
- , Isabella Velicogna
- , Pippa Whitehouse
- , Kate Briggs
- , Ian Joughin
- , Gerhard Krinner
- , Sophie Nowicki
- , Tony Payne
- , Ted Scambos
- , Nicole Schlegel
- , Geruo A
- , Cécile Agosta
- , Andreas Ahlstrøm
- , Greg Babonis
- , Valentina R. Barletta
- , Anders A. Bjørk
- , Alejandro Blazquez
- , Jennifer Bonin
- , William Colgan
- , Beata Csatho
- , Richard Cullather
- , Marcus E. Engdahl
- , Denis Felikson
- , Xavier Fettweis
- , Rene Forsberg
- , Anna E. Hogg
- , Hubert Gallee
- , Alex Gardner
- , Lin Gilbert
- , Noel Gourmelen
- , Andreas Groh
- , Brian Gunter
- , Edward Hanna
- , Christopher Harig
- , Veit Helm
- , Alexander Horvath
- , Martin Horwath
- , Shfaqat Khan
- , Kristian K. Kjeldsen
- , Hannes Konrad
- , Peter L. Langen
- , Benoit Lecavalier
- , Bryant Loomis
- , Scott Luthcke
- , Malcolm McMillan
- , Daniele Melini
- , Sebastian Mernild
- , Yara Mohajerani
- , Philip Moore
- , Ruth Mottram
- , Jeremie Mouginot
- , Gorka Moyano
- , Alan Muir
- , Thomas Nagler
- , Grace Nield
- , Johan Nilsson
- , Brice Noël
- , Ines Otosaka
- , Mark E. Pattle
- , W. Richard Peltier
- , Nadège Pie
- , Roelof Rietbroek
- , Helmut Rott
- , Louise Sandberg Sørensen
- , Ingo Sasgen
- , Himanshu Save
- , Bernd Scheuchl
- , Ernst Schrama
- , Ludwig Schröder
- , Ki-Weon Seo
- , Sebastian B. Simonsen
- , Thomas Slater
- , Giorgio Spada
- , Tyler Sutterley
- , Matthieu Talpe
- , Lev Tarasov
- , Willem Jan van de Berg
- , Wouter van der Wal
- , Melchior van Wessem
- , Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma
- , David Wiese
- , David Wilton
- , Thomas Wagner
- , Bert Wouters
- & Jan Wuite
Contributions
A.S. and E.I. designed and led the study. E.R., B.S., M.v.d.B., I.V. and P.W. led the IOM, altimetry, SMB, gravimetry and GIA experiments, respectively. G.K., S.N., T.P. and T. Scambos provided additional supervision on glaciology, K.B., A.H., I.J., M.E.E. and T.W. provided additional supervision on satellite observations and N.S. provided additional supervision on GIA. G.M., M.E.P. and T. Slater performed the mass balance data collation and analysis. T. Slater performed the AR5 data analysis. P.W. and I.S. performed the GIA data analysis. M.v.W. and T. Slater performed the SMB data analysis. A.S., E.I., K.B., M.E., N.G., A.H., H.K., M.M., I.O., I.S., T. Slater, M.v.W. and P.W. wrote the manuscript. A.S. led the writing, E.I., K.B., M.E., and T. Slater led the drafting and editing, M.v.W. led the SMB text, P.W. and I.S. led the GIA text and N.G., A.H., H.K., M.M. and I.O. contributed elsewhere. A.S., K.B., H.K., G.M., M.E.P, I.S., S.B.S., T. Slater, P.W. and M.v.W. prepared the figures and tables, with particular focus on Fig.1 (S.B.S), Fig.3 (T. Slater), Fig.4 (T. Slater), Extended Data Fig.2 (K.B.), Extended Data Fig.3 (P.W.), Extended Data Fig.2 (M.v.W.), Extended Data Table1 (P.W. and I.S.), Extended Data Table2 (M.v.W.) and Supplementary Table1 (H.K. and T. Slater). G.M. and M.E.P. led the production of all other figures and tables. All authors participated in the data interpretation and commented on the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Correspondence toAndrew Shepherd.
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The authors declare no competing interests.
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Extended data figures and tables
Extended Data Fig. 1 Ice sheet mass balance datasets.
a, Participant datasets used in this study and their main contributors.b, The number of data available in each calendar year. The interval 2003–2010 includes almost all datasets and is selected as the overlap period. Further details of the satellite observations used in this study are provided in Supplementary Table1. Refs.28,33,38,56,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Modelled glacial isostatic adjustment in Greenland.
a,b, Bedrock uplift rates in Greenland averaged over the GIA model solutions used in this study (a) and their standard deviation (b). Further details of the GIA models used in this study are provided in Extended Data Table1. High rates of uplift and subsidence associated with the former Laurentide Ice Sheet are apparent to the southwest of Greenland.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance intracomparison.
a–c, Individual rates of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance used in this study as determined from satellite altimetry (a), gravimetry (b) and the input–output method (c). The grey shading shows the estimated 1σ (dark), 2σ (mid-) and 3σ (light) uncertainty relative to the ensemble average. Refs.28,33,38,56,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,69,70,71,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance intercomparison.
Rate of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance as derived from the three techniques: satellite radar and laser altimetry (red), input–output method (blue) and gravimetry (green). Their arithmetic mean is shown in grey. The estimated uncertainty is also shown (shaded envelopes) and is computed as the root mean square of the component time-series errors.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Cumulative Greenland Ice Sheet SMB.
The cumulative surface mass change determined from an average (mean) of the RACMO2.3p246, MARv3.621 and HIRHAM9 regional climate models relative to their 1980–1990 means (see Methods). The estimated uncertainty of the mean change is also shown (shaded area), computed as the average of the uncertainties from each of the three models. RACMO2.3p2 uncertainties are based on a comparison to in situ observations33. MARv3.6 uncertainties are evaluated from the variability due to forcing from climate reanalyses21. HIRHAM uncertainties are estimated on the basis of comparisons to in situ accumulation and ablation data110. Cumulative uncertainties are computed as the root sum square of annual errors, on the assumption that these errors are not correlated over time17.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Table 1 | Details of satellite datasets used in this study.
This file contains: 1.1 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the gravimetry experiment group; 1.2 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the radar and laser altimetry experiment group; 1.3 Data sets and methods employed by participants of the mass budget experiment group; and Supplementary References.
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The IMBIE Team. Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018.Nature579, 233–239 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2
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Comments
Commenting on this article is now closed.
Fraser Ritchie
Question; (I am sorry I do not have access to the complete article so if I sound like and idiot I apologise in advance) I was wondering how one would calculate the upward deflection of the earths crust directly below Greenland and its additional potential impact on ocean rise. Was this part of the calculation or was the only volume of melt water included in the ocean rise estimate? Thnks
Ken LordReplied toFraser Ritchie
You're talking about isostatic re-adjustment which will lag behind by hundreds to thousands of years. It would affect the apparent local sea levels around greenland, while the absolute sea level goes up from the melt water.
An isostatic adjustment you never hear about is by how much adding water to the oceans will depress the sea floor and push up continents generally. Back of the envelope guess is that it reduces ocean rise by 1/4 to 1/3 given that water is about 1/3 as dense as continental silicates. So if all the ice in Antarctica and Greenland adds 60 meters to water depth, you can figure that that will only come to 40-45 meters of sea level rise given time for the underlying global mantle to adjust.
Central Greenland's bedrock is depressed to just a couple hundred meters below sea level. The part of the 3 km thick ice sheet that is below sea level and would drain off as the land rose above sea level is therefore very small. A more interesting question is how much the rise of Greenland bedrock would reduce global sea level. When Greenland gained ice, the semi-solid mantle underneath was squeezed out under the surrounding ocean. With the ice gone, the weight of the ocean will push that mantle back under Greenland and under other continental margins.
allangee
CLIMATE references with a 30-ish year time span? Ludicrous.
Jeff Rankinen
Generation IV nuclear reactors are the fix for human-made global warming.
gordo53Replied toJeff Rankinen
Thorium? Good luck with that.
Fusion is the only answer to AGW and many other long-term problems such as fossil fuel depletion. Everything else is distraction and ulterior agendas.
gordo53Replied toPman
Haven't seen any encouraging news lately. Still working on the "magnetic bottle" or is there something new and improved in the area of containment?
disqus_DDEkcLuNfY
what did it look like 12,500 years ago? 5 miles thick ice on seattle.
Joe O'Bremski
So what your saying is... no beach front property in Las Vegas anytime soon... :(
Ward Shaw
Bull
gordo53
Why is all the climate hysteria such big news? There is absolutely nothing the US can do unilaterally that will have any effect on the problem. We are already well past the "tipping point" on radical climate change. Can't we find something else to obsess about?
ndale27Replied togordo53
You are nicely illustrating the Tragedy of the Commons, the idea that because no one party's individual action can solve a problem, it is "logical" to continue on one's selfish path, the cumulative effect is destruction of the common. And this is what will happen if no significant international player (like USA, China, India etc.) breaks away from that tragic logic and does the right thing. As for "obsessing", sure, lots to obsess about otherwise - corona virus, the Middle East, the disgraceful and widening gap between what top executives earn compared to the rest of us. I think we can obsess about all of the above and more.
gordo53Replied tondale27
So I assume from your post that you're doing all you can to combat climate change. Here are few ideas in case you missed them.
1. Stop eating meat. Livestock farming produces copious amounts of methane, a very strong greenhouse gas.
2. Sell your car. Move closer to work so you can walk or bicycle or at least live on a public transportation route.3. NEVER fly anywhere.
4. Turn off your air conditioning in the summer and in the winter use only enough heat to keep the pipes from freezing. Most of the world's population have no personal climate control.5. And of course, urge all your friends and relatives to do the same.
There are other measures, but this is a good start. Be happy in knowing you're doing all you can.Ron McCune
I want ALL of you to realize that before the Ice Age on Earth that the Earth did NOT experience the winters that we use to have about 60 years ago and had since the Ice Age. Since 1960 when global warming started due to the introduction of jet engine airplanes, rockets and rocket weapons which drastically increased the heat in the upper atmosphere where rain clouds form, the Earth stopped having the normal winters we use to have and progressed into the kind of winters we have now which in no way compare to the kind of winters we had before 1960. If the Earth continues on the path it is on today the Earth will be doomed to not being able to support life on Earth for us humans.
So let me lay out to you a way to end global warming easily! First I want all of you to google search a site calledflightradar24.com and on that site is a display of all the commercial flights of jet engine airplanes that are flying at that moment worldwide. Throughout the day there are around 90,000 flights. This site does not include military jet airplanes or military jet propelled weapons or rockets of any kind. I assume that that amount is very high and much more damaging to our environment. Here's why, commercial jet planes heated exhaust ranges from 800 to 1200 degrees and military jet planes heated exhaust ranges from 1200 to 2500 degrees. So what is happening daily is that around the globe daily we are putting a lot of hot air and jet engine pollutants into our upper atmosphere from these jet engine airplanes. Also these jet engine airplanes are gigantic vacuum machines that are sucking up rain and cloud producing water molecules in our upper atmosphere. That is why the Earth has less clouds now around the Earth than it did before the 1960's when jet engine airplanes started flying in mass around the planet. Check out the weather maps and you will see that the Earth had much more clouds before 1960. Check out the weather maps from the week after 9/11 Twin Towers attack when worldwide airplane flights around the world were grounded. You will see a massive increase of clouds worldwide! Before the 1960's we used mainly propeller airplanes which don't suck up and heat air as jet engine airplanes do. We have to go back to only using propeller airplanes in order to end global warming immediately! It's as simple as that! It's an easy way to stop heating up our atmosphere. The cold air coming into the Earth's atmosphere from outer space is the only reason the Earth hasn't heated up yet from the Sun in all the years of the Earth's existence. Clouds are the only thing that Earth has that can stop the Sun's rays from heating the Earth and the only thing that the Earth has that can produce rain. Vegetation and trees are the only thing on Earth that produces moisture/water molecules in our atmosphere. Jet engine airplanes, weapons and rockets are the only thing we humans put up into our upper atmosphere that is so hot that it over powers the cold air coming from outer space into our Earth's atmosphere. Our cities are too far apart to have create the kind heat needed to create global warming that the Earth is now encountering. Jet engine airplanes are the main cause of global warming so let's all stop flying them!
Think about this. Before the Ice Age the Earth REALLY didn't have much cold winters. The weather before the Ice Age allowed vegetation and trees to grow all the way up in Alaska and all the other places that are now cold areas of the Earth. In fact I believe we didn't have much cold air around the world at all before the Ice Age. The Ice Age gave the planet all the ice we have seen on the North and South Poles and all the glaciers around the world. There is NO WAY Mother Nature can reproduce the amount of ice again again around the world as it did when the Ice Age happened. A super volcano somewhere on Earth erupted millions of years ago and all it's volcano ash block out the sun for many years which then caused the Ice Age. The ONLY way the Earth will be able to have as much ice as it did before the current global warming started in 1960 is for the Earth to experience another super volcano eruption.
Because of global warming the Earth is headed for the way the Earth was before the Ice Age. Unfortunately we humans will in no way be able to survive as we do today in that kind of world which has no cold winters! Farming like we have today will not be possible anymore because the Earth will be getting much less rain. The Earth's water will evaporate from the heat of the Sun. Streams and rivers will first quickly disappear as all life around it either dies or go on a constant move looking for livable areas on the planet. Mass chaos by people worldwide will only add to everyone's problems as humans and animals fight for whatever is left on Earth for them to survive. Insects will drastically multiply and kill millions of people and animals as the insects spread their diseases worldwide.
Some now think that the Earth will evolve to how the Earth was before the Ice Age once the North and South Poles and the glaciers around the world are melted. That will not happen because before the Ice Age there was mostly trees and vegetation around the world. That is not so today. Also the earth atmosphere had a lot more oxygen and moisture in the atmosphere to sustain a world with as much trees and vegetation as it had before the Ice Age. And I doubt if the winters were as cold worldwide before the Ice Age as they were before 1960 and even today.
So think about all these things before you vote because whoever controls our government is going to have to save us from this hell, this global warming situation we humans have put this planet in! Do ANY of you trust Trump and the Republicans to save the planet from destruction!gordo53Replied toRon McCune
Lovely, long post. Please explain how ANY politician or political party in this country is going to solve the problem. The quick answer is they can't. So all the hype about climate change is just that. Given the track record of the human race, we're due for a little adversity, don't you think?
drink me
Subject: How many coal-fueled power plants are
there in the world today?How many coal-fueled power plants are there in the world today?
The EU has 468 - building 27 more... Total 495
Turkey has 56 - building 93 more... Total 149
South Africa has 79 - building 24 more... Total 103
India has 589 - building 446 more... Total 1036
Philippines has 19 - building 60 more... Total 79
South Korea has 58 - building 26 more... Total 84
Japan has 90 - building 45 more... Total 135
China has 2,363 - building 1,171 more... Total 3,534
That’s 5,615 projected coal powered plants in just 8 countries.
USA has 15 - building 0 more...Total 15
Lonnie G. McCracken
I was wondering if there has been any thought in controlling the Jetstream. The hottest location on Earth should be the equator. Most of the equator is ocean. If the ocean was cooled at the equator, wouldn't that help control severe winds? This could be achieved by pumping surface water towards the cooler water underneath or by spraying the water into the upper atmosphere to the point that it would turn into ice and fall back into the ocean.
