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Nature Geoscience
  • Progress Article
  • Published:

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Nature Geosciencevolume 6, pages339–346 (2013)Cite this article

Subjects

ACorrigendum to this article was published on 27 November 2015

AnErratum to this article was published on 30 May 2013

AnErratum to this article was published on 30 May 2013

This article has beenupdated

Abstract

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions betweenad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the periodad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

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Figure 1: The PAGES 2k Network.
Figure 2: Continental-scale temperature reconstructions.
Figure 3: Summary of long-term trends in individual site-level proxy records.
Figure 4: Composite temperature reconstructions with climate forcings and previous hemisphere-scale reconstructions.

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Change history

  • 26 April 2013

    In version of this Progress Article originally published, the authorship pseudonym was incorrectly stated as the PAGES 2k Network. The correct name is the PAGES 2k Consortium. This has been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions.

  • 14 May 2013

    In the version of this Progress Article originally published, incorrect references were cited in the caption of Fig. 4a. The correct reference citation should read "5,43-45". This has been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions.

  • 27 November 2015

    Since the original publication of this Progress Article, errors have been identified in the data set used for the Arctic temperature reconstruction. Corrections made to the Arctic data set are reflected in changes to this Progress Article as detailed in the associated Corrigendum (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2566)

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Acknowledgements

Support for PAGES activities is provided by the US and Swiss National Science Foundations, US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. All maps were kindly created by Alexander Hermann, Institute of Geography, University of Bern.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Mohammed Umer: Deceased

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Botany, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Karachi, 75300, Pakistan

    Moinuddin Ahmed

  2. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, 10964, New York, USA

    Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Brendan M. Buckley, Edward R. Cook & Jason E. Smerdon

  3. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, 2543, Massachusetts, USA

    Kevin J. Anchukaitis

  4. School of Earth Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Asfawossen Asrat & Mohammed Umer

  5. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    Hemant P. Borgaonkar

  6. Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze, University of Trieste, 34128, Italy

    Martina Braida & Barbara Stenni

  7. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland

    Ulf Büntgen & Raphael Neukom

  8. Département Paléoenvironnements et Paléoclimats (PAL), Université Montpellier, Montpellier, 34095, France

    Brian M. Chase

  9. Department of Archaeology, History, Cultural Studies and Religion, University of Bergen, Bergen, 5020, Norway

    Brian M. Chase

  10. Laboratorio de Dendrocronología y Cambio Global, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile

    Duncan A. Christie & Antonio Lara

  11. Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 2777, Santiago, Chile

    Duncan A. Christie & Antonio Lara

  12. Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, 7050, Tasmania, Australia

    Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy & Tas van Ommen

  13. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, 7005, Tasmania, Australia

    Mark A. J. Curran, Andrew D. Moy & Tas van Ommen

  14. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    Henry F. Diaz

  15. Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, 55099, Germany

    Jan Esper

  16. Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yunnan, 666303, China

    Ze-Xin Fan

  17. Faculty of Science, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Khumaltar, GPO Box 3323, Lalitpur, Nepal

    Narayan P. Gaire

  18. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Quansheng Ge & Xuemei Shao

  19. School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia

    Joëlle Gergis

  20. Departamento Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain

    J Fidel González-Rouco

  21. Lemaitre Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium

    Hugues Goosse

  22. School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Wits, 2050, South Africa

    Stefan W. Grab & David J. Nash

  23. Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, 92130, California, USA

    Nicholas Graham & Rochelle Graham

  24. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland

    Martin Grosjean & Heinz Wanner

  25. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00014, Finland

    Sami T. Hanhijärvi & Atte A. Korhola

  26. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, 86011, Arizona, USA

    Darrell S. Kaufman & Nicholas P. McKay

  27. International Project Office, Past Global Changes (PAGES), Bern, 3012, Switzerland

    Thorsten Kiefer & Lucien von Gunten

  28. Department of Symbiotic System Science, Fukushima University, Fukushima, 960-1248, Japan

    Katsuhiko Kimura

  29. Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden

    Paul J. Krusic

  30. Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris cedex, 575252, France

    Anne-Marie Lézine

  31. Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden

    Fredrik C. Ljungqvist

  32. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., National Climate Centre Auckland, 1011, New Zealand

    Andrew M. Lorrey

  33. Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, 35390, Germany

    Jürg Luterbacher & Johannes P. Werner

  34. Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91 191, France

    Valérie Masson-Delmotte

  35. Department of Geography, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP, UK

    Danny McCarroll & Maria R. Prieto

  36. Desert Research Institute, Nevada System of Higher Education, Reno, 89512, Nevada, USA

    Joseph R. McConnell & Michael Sigl

  37. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT-CONICET-Mendoza, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina

    Mariano S. Morales, Ignacio A. Mundo & Ricardo Villalba

  38. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK

    Robert Mulvaney

  39. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Nagoya University, Nagoya, 464.8601, Japan

    Takeshi Nakatsuka & Masaki Sano

  40. School of Environment and Technology, University of Brighton, Brighton, BN2 4GJ, UK

    David J. Nash

  41. Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, 32308, Florida, USA

    Sharon E. Nicholson

  42. Department of Glaciology, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany

    Hans Oerter

  43. College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK

    Jonathan G. Palmer

  44. Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia

    Jonathan G. Palmer, Steven J. Phipps & Chris S.M. Turney

  45. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, NSW, Australia

    Steven J. Phipps

  46. Centro de Estudios Cientificos, Valdivia, Chile

    Andres Rivera

  47. Department of Chemistry 'Ugo Schiff', University of Florence, Sesto Fiorentino, 50019, Italy

    Mirko Severi

  48. Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, 78712, Texas, USA

    Timothy M. Shanahan

  49. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Feng Shi

  50. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    Olga N. Solomina

  51. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, 98195, Washington, USA

    Eric J. Steig

  52. National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research, Goa, 403 804, India

    Meloth Thamban

  53. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, 85721, Arizona, USA

    Valerie Trouet

  54. Department of Biology, Ghent University, Ghent, 9000, Belgium

    Dirk Verschuren

  55. Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1N 6N5, Canada

    Andre E. Viau

  56. Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark

    Bo M. Vinther

  57. Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany

    Sebastian Wagner & Eduardo Zorita

  58. National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, 80305, Colorado, USA

    Eugene R. Wahl

  59. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309, Colorado, USA

    James W.C. White

  60. Department of Forest Science, Shinshu University, Nagano, 399-4598, Japan

    Koh Yasue

Consortia

PAGES 2k Consortium

  • Moinuddin Ahmed
  • , Kevin J. Anchukaitis
  • , Asfawossen Asrat
  • , Hemant P. Borgaonkar
  • , Martina Braida
  • , Brendan M. Buckley
  • , Ulf Büntgen
  • , Brian M. Chase
  • , Duncan A. Christie
  • , Edward R. Cook
  • , Mark A. J. Curran
  • , Henry F. Diaz
  • , Jan Esper
  • , Ze-Xin Fan
  • , Narayan P. Gaire
  • , Quansheng Ge
  • , Joëlle Gergis
  • , J Fidel González-Rouco
  • , Hugues Goosse
  • , Stefan W. Grab
  • , Nicholas Graham
  • , Rochelle Graham
  • , Martin Grosjean
  • , Sami T. Hanhijärvi
  • , Darrell S. Kaufman
  • , Thorsten Kiefer
  • , Katsuhiko Kimura
  • , Atte A. Korhola
  • , Paul J. Krusic
  • , Antonio Lara
  • , Anne-Marie Lézine
  • , Fredrik C. Ljungqvist
  • , Andrew M. Lorrey
  • , Jürg Luterbacher
  • , Valérie Masson-Delmotte
  • , Danny McCarroll
  • , Joseph R. McConnell
  • , Nicholas P. McKay
  • , Mariano S. Morales
  • , Andrew D. Moy
  • , Robert Mulvaney
  • , Ignacio A. Mundo
  • , Takeshi Nakatsuka
  • , David J. Nash
  • , Raphael Neukom
  • , Sharon E. Nicholson
  • , Hans Oerter
  • , Jonathan G. Palmer
  • , Steven J. Phipps
  • , Maria R. Prieto
  • , Andres Rivera
  • , Masaki Sano
  • , Mirko Severi
  • , Timothy M. Shanahan
  • , Xuemei Shao
  • , Feng Shi
  • , Michael Sigl
  • , Jason E. Smerdon
  • , Olga N. Solomina
  • , Eric J. Steig
  • , Barbara Stenni
  • , Meloth Thamban
  • , Valerie Trouet
  • , Chris S.M. Turney
  • , Mohammed Umer
  • , Tas van Ommen
  • , Dirk Verschuren
  • , Andre E. Viau
  • , Ricardo Villalba
  • , Bo M. Vinther
  • , Lucien von Gunten
  • , Sebastian Wagner
  • , Eugene R. Wahl
  • , Heinz Wanner
  • , Johannes P. Werner
  • , James W.C. White
  • , Koh Yasue
  •  & Eduardo Zorita

Contributions

Writing teamg: D.S.K. led the synthesis; N.P.McK., E.Z. & S.T.H. performed the synthesis analyses; D.S.K., R.N., L.v.G., T.K., H.G., H.W., C.S.M.T., F.C.L., V.M-D., E.R.W., & T.v.O. prepared the manuscript.Africa: D.J.N., A.A., B.M.C., S.W.G., S.E.N., T.M.S, D.V., A-M.L., M.U. compiled and evaluated the proxy data.Antarctica: T.v.O, M.B., A.D.M., R.M., H.O., M.Se., B.S., E.J.S., M.T., J.W.C.W., M.A.J.C., J.R.McC., M.Si. & B.M.V. provided proxy data, contributed to their dating and interpretation; M.A.J.C., J.R.McC., M.Si. & B.M.V. correlated volcanic markers; T.v.O & R.N. produced the reconstruction; M.A.J.C. managed the data.Arctic: A.A.K., D.S.K. & S.T.H. coordinated the study. S.T.H, D.S.K. & F.C.L. collected and reviewed the proxy data; S.T.H. calculated the reconstruction and managed data.Asia: M.A., K.J.A., H.P.B., B.M.B.,Q.G., E.R.C., Z.F., N.P.G., K.K., P.J.K., T.N., J.G.P., M.Sa., X.S., O.N.S. & K.Y. contributed, collected and analysed the proxy data; K.J.A., B.M.B., E.R.C. & P.J.K. performed the reconstruction; T.N., M.Sa. & F.S. provided technical support and managed the data.Australasia: J.G., A.M.L., S.J.P. & R.N. coordinated the study. R.N. & J.G. collated, managed and analysed the proxy data; R.N. & J.G. developed the reconstruction with input from S.J.P.Europe: U.B., J.E., S.W., E.Z., D.McC., F.J.G.-R., F.C.L., J.E.S., J.P.W. & J.L. collected, reviewed and analysed the proxy records, and provided input in the analysis and interpretation of the European reconstruction; S.W. managed the data; J.P.W. & J.E.S. produced the reconstruction.North America: H.F.D., E.R.W., V.T., R.G., N.G. & A.E.V. designed the study, analysed the data, and produced the reconstructions; E.R.W. & A.E.V. collected and archived the data.South America: R.V. & M.G. coordinated the study; R.V., D.A.C, A.L., I.A.M., M.S.M., L.v.G., M.R.P. & A.R. provided proxy data; R.N. calculated the reconstruction; R.N. & I.A.M. managed the data. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toDarrell S. Kaufman.

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Competing interests

The author declare no competing financial interests.

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PAGES 2k Consortium. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia.Nature Geosci6, 339–346 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797

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Regional climate goes global

  • Helen McGregor
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