Hostname: page-component-6b88cc9666-zff2w Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-02-14T22:25:11.809Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Dominant Party Rule, Elections, and Cabinet Instability in African Autocracies

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 09 March 2018

Abstract

This article draws on the authoritarian institutions literature to explain the role of dominant parties in constraining the ability of autocrats to reshuffle cabinet ministers. Dominant party leaders are constrained in their ability to frequently reshuffle ministers by the need to maintain credible power-sharing commitments with party elites. These constraints also produce distinct temporal patterns of instability where large reshuffles occur following elections. Conversely, personalist leaders face fewer power-sharing constraints and engage in more extensive cabinet reshuffles at more arbitrary intervals. Military leaders face complex constraints that depend on whether officers or civilians occupy cabinet posts and the extent to which leaders are dependent upon civilian ministers for regime performance and popular support. Empirical analyses using data on the cabinets of ninety-four authoritarian leaders from thirty-seven African countries between 1976 and 2010 support the theoretical expectations for dominant party and personalist leaders, but are inconclusive for military leaders.

Information

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, University of California, Merced (email:akroeger2@ucmerced.edu). I thank Sona Golder, Courtney Hillebrecht, Alice Kang, Nam Kyu Kim, Ross Miller, and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. Data replication sets available in Harvard Dataverse at:https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/WAQNXD and online appendices are available at:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000497

References

Anene,J.1997.Military Administrative Behavior and Democratization: Civilian Cabinet Appointments in Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of Public Policy17 (1):6380.Google Scholar
Arriola,L.2009.Patronage and Political Stability in Africa.Comparative Political Studies42 (10):13391362.Google Scholar
Arriola,L., andJohnson,M..2014.Ethnic Politics and Women’s Empowerment in Africa: Ministerial Appointments to Executive Cabinets.American Journal of Political Science58 (2):495–10.Google Scholar
Barkan,J., andChege,M..1989.Decentralizing the State: District Focus and the Politics of Reallocation in Kenya.Journal of Modern African Studies27 (3):431453.Google Scholar
Barkey,K.1994.Bandits and Bureaucrats: The Ottoman Route to State Centralization.Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Bayart,J.-F.2009.The State in Africa: The Politics of the Belly,2nd Edition.Cambridge:Polity.Google Scholar
Besley,T., andPersson,T..2010.State Capacity, Conflict, and Development.Econometrica78 (1):134.Google Scholar
Bienen,H., andvan de Walle,N..1989.Time and Power in Africa.American Political Science Review83 (1):1934.Google Scholar
Blaydes,L.2010.Elections and Distributive Politics in Egypt.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boix,C., andSvolik,M..2013.The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions, Commitment, and Power-Sharing in Dictatorships.Journal of Politics75 (2):300316.Google Scholar
Bratton,M., andvan de Walle,N..1997.Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brownlee,J.2007.Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita,B.,Smith,A.,Siverson,R., andMorrow,J..2003.The Logic of Political Survival.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.Google Scholar
Carter,D., andSignorino,C..2010.Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data.Political Analysis18 (3):271292.Google Scholar
Chabal,P., andDaloz,J.-P..1999.Africa Works: Disorder as a Political Instrument.Oxford:Currey.Google Scholar
Chouli,L.2015.The Popular Uprising in Burkina Faso and the Transition.Review of African Political Economy42 (144):325333.Google Scholar
Clapham,C.1982.Clientelism and the State. InPrivate Patronage and Public Power,135.New York:St. Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
Debs,A.2016.Living by the Sword and Dying by the Sword? Leadership Transitions in and out of Dictatorships.International Studies Quarterly60 (1):7384.Google Scholar
Decalo,S.1989.Psychoses of power: African personal dictatorships.Boulder, CO:Westview.Google Scholar
Dickie,J., andRake,A..1973.Who’s Who in Africa: The Political, Military and Business Leaders of Africa.London:African Buyer and Trader Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
Emizet,K.2000.Explaining the Rise and Fall of Military Regimes: Civil-Military Relations in the Congo.Armed Forces & Society26 (2):203227.Google Scholar
Escobar-Lemmon,M., andTaylor-Robinson,M..2014.Women Ministers in Latin American Government: When, Where, and Why?American Journal of Political Science49 (4):829844.Google Scholar
Europa Publications Limited.1975–2010.Africa South of the Sahara.London:Europa Publications Limited.Google Scholar
Fischer,J.,Dowding,K., andDumont,P..2012.The Duration and Durability of Cabinet Ministers.International Political Science Review33 (5):505519.Google Scholar
Francois,P.,Rainer,I., andTrebbi,F..2015a. The Dictator’s Inner Circle. Working paper. Canadian Institute for Advanced Research/University of British Columbia.Google Scholar
Francois,P.,Rainer,I., andTrebbi,F..2015b.How is Power Shared in Africa?Econometrica83 (2):465503.Google Scholar
Gandhi,J.2008.Political Institutions Under Dictatorship.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Geddes,B.1999.What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?Annual Review of Political Science2:115144.Google Scholar
Geddes,B..2003.Paradigms and Sandcastles.Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Geddes,B..2006. Why Parties and Elections in Authoritarian Regimes. Unpublished manuscript.Google Scholar
Geddes,B.,Wright,J., andFrantz,E..2014.Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set.Perspectives on Politics12 (2):313331.Google Scholar
Goemans,H.,Gleditsch,K., andChiozza,G..2009.Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders.Journal of Peace Research46 (2):269283.Google Scholar
Greene,W.2009.Discrete Choice Modeling.London:Palgrave.Google Scholar
Hanmer,M., andKalkan,K..2013.Behind the Curve: Clarifying the Best Approach to Calculating Predicted Probabilities and Marginal Effects from Limited Dependent Variable Models.American Journal of Political Science57 (1):263277.Google Scholar
Hassan,M.2017.The Strategic Shuffle: Ethnic Geography, the Internal Security Apparatus, and Elections in Kenya.American Journal of Political Science61 (2):382395.Google Scholar
Herbst,J.2000.States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control.Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hilbe,J.2011.Negative Binomial Regression.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huband,M.1998.The Liberian Civil War.London:Frank Cass Publishers.Google Scholar
Huber,J., andMartinez-Gallardo,C..2008.Replacing Cabinet Ministers: Patterns of Ministerial Instability in Parliamentary Democracies.American Political Science Review102 (2):169180.Google Scholar
Hyde,S., andMarinov,N..2012.Which Elections Can Be Lost?Political Analysis20 (2):191201.Google Scholar
Indridason,I., andKam,C..2008.Cabinet Reshuffles and Ministerial Drift.British Journal of Political Science38 (4):624656.Google Scholar
Jackson,R., andRosberg,C..1982.Personal Rule in Black Africa.Berkeley:University of California Press.Google Scholar
Kim,N. K., andKroeger,A. M..2018. Regime and Leader Instability Under Two Forms of Military Rule.Comparative Political Studies51 (1):337.Google Scholar
Kroeger,Alex M.2017. Replication data for Dominant Party Rule, Elections, and Cabinet Instability in African Autocracies, doi:10.7910/DVN/WAQNXD, UNF:6:MwuujUGUkXiy8jFFrUxv2Q==, Harvard Dataverse, V1.Google Scholar
Krook,M. L., andO’Brien,D. Z..2012.All the President’s Men? The Appointment of Female Ministers Worldwide.Journal of Politics74 (3):840855.Google Scholar
LeBas,A.2011.From Protests to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa.Oxford:Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lemarchand,R., andLegg,K..1972.Political Clientelism and Development: A Preliminary Analysis.Comparative Politics4 (2):149178.Google Scholar
LeVan,C., andAssenov,A..2016.Parties or Portfolio? The Economic Consequences of Africa’s Big Cabinets.Government and Opposition51:661690.Google Scholar
Magaloni,B.2006.Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico.New York:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Magaloni,B..2008.Credible Power Sharing and the Longevity of Authoritarian Rule.Comparative Political Studies41 (4–5):715741.Google Scholar
Marshall,M.,Gurr,T., andJaggers,K..2013. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2012. Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Migdal,J.1988.Strong Societies and Weak States: State–Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World.Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pilster,U., andBöhmelt,T..2011.Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99.Conflict Management and Peace Science28 (4):120.Google Scholar
Posner,D. N.2005.Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa.New York:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Powell,J., andThyne,C..2011.Global Instances of Coups From 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset.Journal of Peace Research48 (2):249259.Google Scholar
Quinlivan,J.1999.Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East.International Security24 (2):131165.Google Scholar
Quiroz Flores,A.2009.The Political Survival of Foreign Ministers.Foreign Policy Analysis5 (2):117133.Google Scholar
Quiroz Flores,A., andSmith,A..2011.Leader Survival and Cabinet Change.Economics and Politics23 (3):345366.Google Scholar
Rauch,J. E., andEvans,P. B..2000.Bureaucratic Structure and Bureaucratic Performance in Less Developed Countries.Journal of Public Economics75:4971.Google Scholar
Riedl,R.2014.Authoritarian Origins of Democratic Party Systems in Africa.New York and Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Roberts,T.2015.The Durability of Presidential and Parliamentary Based-Dictatorships.Comparative Political Studies48 (7):915948.Google Scholar
Roessler,P.2011.The Enemy Within: Personal Rule, Coups, and Civil War in Africa.World Politics63 (2):300346.Google Scholar
Skaaning,S.-E.,Gerring,J., andBartusevicius,H..2015.A Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy.Comparative Political Studies48 (12):14911525.Google Scholar
Smith,B.2005.Life of the Party: The Origins of Regime Breakdown and Persistence Under Single-Party Rule.World Politics57 (3):421451.Google Scholar
Svolik,M.2012.The Politics of Authoritarian Rule.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ulfelder,J.2005.Contentious Collective Action and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes.International Political Science Review26 (3):311334.Google Scholar
van de Walle,N.2001.African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979–1999.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Widner,J. A.1992.The Rise of a Party-State in Kenya: From Harambee! to Nyayo!Berkeley:University of California Press.Google Scholar
Wig,T., andRod,E. G..2016.Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships.Journal of Conflict Resolution60 (5):787812.Google Scholar
Wimmer,A.,Cederman,L., andMin,B..2009.Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Dataset.American Sociological Review74 (2):316337.Google Scholar
Zolberg,A.1969.One-Party Government in the Ivory Coast.Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Kroeger supplementary material

Appendix

Download Kroeger supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 312.5 KB
Link