Movatterモバイル変換

[0]ホーム
URL:

Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Estimates of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening mammography

  • Original paper
  • Published:
Cancer Causes & Control Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose

To estimate the extent of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening in New South Wales, Australia, a population with a well-established mammography screening program which has achieved full geographic coverage.

Methods

We calculated overdiagnosis as the observed annual incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW in 1999–2001 (a screened population) minus the expected annual incidence in this population at the same time, as a percentage of the expected incidence. We estimated expected incidence without screening in 1999–2001 from the incidence of invasive breast cancer in: (1) women in unscreened age groups (interpolation method); and (2) women in all age groups prior to the implementation of screening (extrapolation method). We then adjusted these estimates for trends in major risk factors for breast cancer that may have coincided with the introduction of mammography screening: increasing obesity, use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and nulliparity. Finally, we adjusted for lead time to produce estimates of expected incidence in 1999–2001. These were compared with the observed incidence in 1999–2001 to calculate overdiagnosis of breast cancer associated with screening.

Results

Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer among 50–69 year NSW women was estimated to be 42 and 30% using the interpolation and extrapolation methods, respectively.

Conclusion

Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer attributable to mammography screening appears to be substantial. Our estimates are similar to recent estimates from other screening programmes. Overdiagnosis merits greater attention in research and in clinical and public health policy making.

This is a preview of subscription content,log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
¥17,985 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Japan)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

ArticleOpen access01 May 2015

References

  1. Althuis MD, Dozier JM, Anderson WF, Devesa SS, Brinton LA (2005) Global trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality 1973–1997. Int J Epi 34:405–412

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2003)BreastScreen Australia Monitoring Reports 1998–99, 1999–2000 and 2000–2001. Cancer series numbers 25 and 26; AIHW Cat.Nos. CAN 20 and CAN 21. Canberra, AIHW

  3. Ernster V, Barclay J, Kerlikowske K, Grady D, Henderson C (1996) Incidence of and treatment for ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast. JAMA 275(12):913–918

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  4. Barratt A, Irwig L, Glasziou P, Cumming R, Raffle A, Hicks N et al (1999) Users’ guides to the medical literature: XVII. How to use guidelines and recommendations about screening. Evidence-based medicine working group. JAMA 281(21):2029–2034

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  5. Gilbert Welch H (2009) Overdiagnosis and mammography screening. BMJ 339:b1425. doi:10.1136/bmj.b1425 (Published 9 July 2009)

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  6. Russo J, Moral R, Balogh GA, Mailo D, Russo IH (2005) The protective role of pregnancy in breast cancer. Breast Cancer Res 7(3):131–142

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Mastorakos G, Sakkas EG, Xydakis AM, Creatsas G (2006) Pitfalls of the WHIS: women’s health initiative. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1092:331–340

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Biesheuvel C, Barratt A, Howard K, Houssami N, Irwig L (2007) Effects of study methods and biases on estimates of invasive breast cancer overdetection with mammography screening: a systematic review. Lancet Oncol 8(12):1129–1138

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  9. Olsen AH, Jensen A, Njor SH, Villadsen E, Schwartz W, Vejborg I et al (2003) Breast cancer incidence after the start of mammography screening in Denmark. Br J Cancer 88(3):362–365

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Zahl PH, Strand BH, Maehlen J (2004) Incidence of breast cancer in Norway and Sweden during introduction of nationwide screening: prospective cohort study. BMJ 328(7445):921–924

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  11. Zahl P, Jorgensen KJ, Maehlen J (2008) Biases in estimates of overdetection due to mammography screening. Lancet Oncology 9:199–201

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  12. Boer R, Warmerdam P, De Koning HJ, van Oortmarssen G (1994) Extra incidence caused by mammographic screening. Lancet 343:979

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. MacLennan AH, MacLennan A, Wilson D (1993) The prevalence of oestrogen replacement therapy in South Australia. Maturitas 16:175–183

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. MacLennan AH, Wilson DH, Taylor AW (2002) Hormone replacement therapy use over a decade in an Australian population. Climacteric 5(4):351–356

    CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) Analysis of the 1980, 1983 and 1989 risk factor prevalence surveys, 1995 National Nutrition Survey and 1999–2000 Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle (AusDiab) study. Accessed fromhttp://www.aihw.gov.au/dataonline/riskfactors/index.cfm

  16. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2005) Births, Australia, 2005. 2006; cat. no. 3301.0. ABS, Canberra

    Google Scholar 

  17. Lahmann PH, Hoffmann K, Allen N, Van Gils CH, Hhaw K-T, Tehard B, Berrineo F et al (2004) Body size and breast cancer risk: findings from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC). Int J Cancer 111:762–771

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  18. Feigelson HS, Jonas CR, Teras LR, Thun MJ, Calle EE (2004) Weight gain, body mass index, hormone replacement therapy, and postmenopausal breast cancer in a large prospective study. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 13:220–224

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  19. Ahn J, Schatzkin A, Lacey JV Jr, Albanes D, Ballard-Barbash R, Adams KF, Kipnis V, Traci Mouw T, Hollenbeck AR, Leitzmann MF (2007) Adiposity, adult weight change, and postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Arch Intern Med 167(19):2091–2100

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  20. Boyd NF, Martin LJ, Sun L, Guo H, Chiarelli A, Hislop G, Yaffe M, Minkin S (2006) Body size, mammographic density, and breast cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 15(11):2086–2092

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Morimoto LM, White E, Chen Z, Chlebowski RT, Hays J, Kuller L, Lopez AM, Manson J, Margolis KL, Muti PC, Stefanick ML, McTiernan A (2002) Obesity, body size, and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer: The women’s health initiative (United States). Cancer Causes Control 13(8):741–751

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  22. Michels KB, Terry KL, Willett WC (2006) Longitudinal study on the role of body size in premenopausal breast cancer. Arch Intern Med 166:2395–2402

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  23. Nelson HD, Humphrey LL, Nygren P, Teutsch SM, Allan JD (2002) Postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy: scientific review. JAMA 288(7):872–881

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  24. Brinton LA, Hoover R, Fraumeni JF Jr (1983) Reproductive factors in the aetiology of breast cancer. Br J Cancer 47(6):757–762

    CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  25. Estoesta JV, Gao K, Taylor RJ, Ho C, Brassil AE (2004) BreastScreen New South Wales Statistical Report: 1999–2002. BreastScreen NSW, Sydney

    Google Scholar 

  26. Day N (1987) Cumulative rate and cumulative risk. In: Muir C, Waterhouse J, Mack T et al (eds) Cancer incidence in five continents, Vol 5. [Chapter 10]. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon (IARC Sci Publ No 88.)

    Google Scholar 

  27. SAS Institute Inc. (1999) SAS: statistical software. Version 8.02. SAS Institute, Cary

    Google Scholar 

  28. Duffy SW, Lynge E, Jonsson H, Ayyaz S, Olsen AH (2008) Complexities in the estimation of overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening. Br J Cancer 99(7):1176–1178

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  29. Canfell K, Banks E, Moa AM, Beral V (2008) Decrease in breast cancer incidence following a rapid fall in use of hormone replacement therapy in Australia. Med J Aust 188(11):641–644

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  30. van Oortmarssen GJ, Habbema JD, van der Mass PH, de Koning HJ, Collette HJ, Verbeek AL, Geerts AT, Lubbe KT (1990) A model for breast cancer screening. Cancer 66(7):1601–1612

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  31. Boer R, de Koning HJ, van Oortmarssen GJ, van der Maas PJ (1995) In search of the best upper age limit for breast cancer screening. Eur J Cancer 31(12):2040–2043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Zackrisson S, Andersson I, Janzon L, Manjer J, Garne JP (2006) Rate of over-diagnosis of breast cancer 15 years after end of Malmo mammographic screening trial: follow-up study. BMJ 332(7543):689–692

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. Gotzsche PC, Nielsen M (2006) Screening for breast cancer with mammography [Systematic Review] Cochrane Database of systematic reviews

  34. Chiu C, Morrell S, Page A, Rickard M, Brassil A, Taylor R (2006) Population-based mammography screening and breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia. Cancer Causes Control 17(2):153–160

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  35. Irwig L, Houssami N, Armstrong B, Glasziou P (2006) Evaluating new screening tests for breast cancer. BMJ 332:678–679

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  36. Jonsson HR, Johansson R, Lenner P (2005) Increased incidence of invasive breast cancer after the introduction of service screening with mammography in Sweden. Int J Cancer 117:842–847

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

  37. Jorgensen KJ, Gotzsche PC (2009) Overdiagnosis in publicly organised mammography screening programmes: systematic review of incidence trends. BMJ 339:b2587. doi:10.1136/bmj.b2587

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  38. Mathieu E, Barratt A, Davey H, McGeechan K, Howard K, Houssami N (2007) Informed choice in mammography screening: a randomized trial of a decision aid for 70-year-old women [see comment]. Arch Intern Med 167:2039–2046

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  39. Glas AM, Floore A, Delahaye LJ, Witteveen AT, Pover RC, Bakx N, Lahti-Domenici JS, Bruinsma TJ, Warmoes MO, Bernards R, Wessels LF, Van’t Veer LJ (2006) Converting a breast cancer microarray signature into a high-throughput diagnostic test. BMC Genomics 7:278

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  40. van de Vijver MJ, He YD, Van’t Veer LJ, Dai H, Hart AA, Voskuil DW, Schreiber GJ, Peterse JL, Roberts C, Marton MJ, Parrish M, Atsma D, Witteveen A, Glas A, Delahaye L, van der Velde T, Bartelink H, Rodenhuis S, Rutgers ET, Friend SH, Bernards R (2002) A gene-expression signature as a predictor of survival in breast cancer. N Engl J Med 347(25):1999–2009

    Article PubMed  Google Scholar 

  41. Pharoah PD, Antoniou AC, Easton DF, Ponder BA (2008) Polygenes, risk prediction, and targeted prevention of breast cancer. N Engl J Med 358(26):2796–2803

    Article CAS PubMed  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was funded in part by National Health and Medical Research Council Capacity Building Grant in Population Health #262121, and in part by NHMRC Program Grant #402764.

Competing Interests

All authors declare that they have no competing or conflicts of interest. The first author had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia

    Stephen Morrell, Alexandra Barratt, Les Irwig, Kirsten Howard & Bruce Armstrong

  2. Screening and Test Evaluation Program (STEP), School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia

    Les Irwig, Kirsten Howard & Corné Biesheuvel

  3. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden

    Corné Biesheuvel

  4. Sydney Cancer Centre, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Camperdown, NSW, 2050, Australia

    Bruce Armstrong

Authors
  1. Stephen Morrell

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Alexandra Barratt

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Les Irwig

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kirsten Howard

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Corné Biesheuvel

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Bruce Armstrong

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence toStephen Morrell.

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Morrell, S., Barratt, A., Irwig, L.et al. Estimates of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening mammography.Cancer Causes Control21, 275–282 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-009-9459-z

Download citation

Keywords

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
¥17,985 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Japan)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Advertisement

[8]ページ先頭
©2009-2025 Movatter.jp