Part of the book series:Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNIP,volume 7202))
Included in the following conference series:
3578Accesses
Abstract
This paper presents the theoretical foundations of an intelligent on-line modelling tool capable of processing heterogeneous information on complex techno-economical systems. Its main functionality is to investigate, elicit, and apply rules and principles that govern the development processes of technologies and related markets. Specifically, we will focus on applications of the tool to model the evolution of information technology (IT). We will distinguish several relevant subsystems of the system under study, which describe the demographic, education, global economic trends, as well as specific market factors that determine the demand for and use of IT. The group modelling techniques are implemented in the new tool to enable the collaborative and distributed model building with intelligent verification of entries called ‘model wiki’. Based on the information elicited from experts, gathered from the web and professional databases, a discrete-time control model of technological evolution emerges, coupled with a controlled discrete-event system. The latter processes qualitative information and models the influence of external events and trends on the discrete-time control system parameters. We propose novel uncertainty handling techniques capable of processing and combining different types of uncertain information, coming i.a. from Delphi research and forecasts. The quantitative information is dynamically updated by autonomous webcrawlers, following an adaptive intelligent strategy. The resulting model can be used to simulate long-term future trends and scenarios. Its ultimate goal is to perform an optimization process and derive recommendations for decision makers, for example when selecting IT investment strategies in an innovative enterprise.
This is a preview of subscription content,log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Subscribe and save
- Get 10 units per month
- Download Article/Chapter or eBook
- 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
- Cancel anytime
Buy Now
- Chapter
- JPY 3498
- Price includes VAT (Japan)
- eBook
- JPY 5719
- Price includes VAT (Japan)
- Softcover Book
- JPY 7149
- Price includes VAT (Japan)
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ackermann, F., Andersen, D.F., Eden, C., Richardson, G.P.: ScriptsMap: A tool for designing multi-method policy-making workshops. Omega 39, 427–434 (2011)
Antoniou, I., Reeve, M., Stenning, V.: The Information Society as a Complex System. Journal of Universal Computer Science 6(3), 272–288 (2000)
Bérard, C.: Group Model Building Using System Dynamics: An Analysis of Methodological Frameworks. Elect. J. Bus. Res. Meth. 8(1), 35–45 (2010),http://www.ejbrm.com/volume8/issue1 (accessed November 2011)
Desthieux, G., Joerin, F., Lebreton, M.: Ulysse: a qualitative tool for eliciting mental models of complex systems. Methodological approach and application to regional development in Atlantic Canada. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 26(2), 163–192 (2010)
Duff, A., Craig, D., McNeill, D.A.: A note on the origins of the information society. Journal of Information Science 22(2), 117–122 (1996)
FET Flagship,http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/programme/fet/flagship/home_en.html (accessed November 2011)
FISTERA project web page,http://fistera.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ (accessed October 2011)
Forrester, J.W.: World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge (1971)
Horvitz, E.: Principles and Applications of Continual Computation. Artificial Intelligence 126, 159–196 (2001)
Lane, D., Pumain, D., van der Leeuw, S.E., West, G. (eds.): Complexity Perspectives in Innovation and Social Change. Springer Science+Business Media B.V. (2009)
Mostashari, A., Sussman, J.: A Framework for Analysis, Design and Management of Complex Large-Scale Sociotechnological Systems. Int. J. for Decisions Support Systems and Technologies, Special Issue on Systems Modeling Approach 1(2), 53–68 (2009)
Olivera, N.L., Proto, A.N., Ausloos, M.: Modeling the Information Society as a Complex System (2009),http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/research_methodology/documents/s13p2_modelling_the_information_society_olivera_et_al.pdf (accessed September 2011)
Ramadge, P.J., Wohnam, W.M.: Supervisory control of a class of discrete event processes. SIAM J. Control 25(1), 206–230 (1987)
Rouwette, E.A.J.A., Vennix, J.A.M., Van Mullekom, T.: Group model building effectiveness: a review of assessment studies. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 18(1), 5–45 (2002)
Skulimowski, A.M.J.: Optimal Control of a Class of Asynchronous Discrete-Event Systems. In: Proceedings of the 11th IFAC World Congress, Automatic Control in the Service of Mankind, Tallinn (Estonia), 1990, vol. 3, pp. 489–495. Pergamon Press, London (1991)
Skulimowski, A.M.J.: Framing New Member States and Candidate Countries Information Society Insights. In: Compaño, R., Pascu, C. (eds.) Prospects For a Knowledge-Based Society in the New Members States and Candidate Countries, pp. 9–51. Publishing House of the Romanian Academy (2006)
Skulimowski, A.M.J.: Future Trends of Intelligent Decision Support Systems and Models. In: Park, J.J., Yang, L.T., Lee, C. (eds.) FutureTech 2011, Part I. CCIS, vol. 184, pp. 11–20. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)
Skulimowski, A.M.J., et. al.: Scenarios and Development Trends of Selected Information Society Technologies until 2025, Task 3 and 4 Reports, Progress & Business Foundation, Kraków (2011),www.ict.foresight.pl
Skulimowski, A.M.J., Schmid, B.F.: Redundancy-free description of partitioned complex systems. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 16(10), 71–92 (1992)
Sudár, E., Peto, D., Gábor, A.: Modeling the Penetration of the Information Society Paradigm. In: Wimmer, M.A. (ed.) KMGov 2004. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3035, pp. 201–209. Springer, Heidelberg (2004)
Vennix, J.A.M.: Group model-building: tackling messy problems. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 15, 379–401 (1999)
Vennix, J.A.M., Andersen, D.F., Richardson, G.P., Rohrbaugh, J.: Model-building for group decision support: Issues and alternatives in knowledge elicitation. European J. Oper. Res. 59(1), 28–41 (1992)
Webster, F.: Theories of the Information Society, 3rd edn. Routledge, London (2006)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Chair of Automatic Control, Decision Science Laboratory, AGH University of Science and Technology, al. Mickiewicza 30, 30-050, Kraków, Poland
Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski
International Centre for Decision Sciences and Forecasting, Progress & Business Foundation, ul. Miechowska 5B, 30-041, Kraków, Poland
Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski
- Andrzej M. J. Skulimowski
You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University, West Youyi Road No. 127, 710072, Xi’an, China
Yanning Zhang & Ying Li &
National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, 210046, Nanjing, China
Zhi-Hua Zhou
Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
Changshui Zhang
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Skulimowski, A.M.J. (2012). Discovering Complex System Dynamics with Intelligent Data Retrieval Tools. In: Zhang, Y., Zhou, ZH., Zhang, C., Li, Y. (eds) Intelligent Science and Intelligent Data Engineering. IScIDE 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7202. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31919-8_78
Download citation
Publisher Name:Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN:978-3-642-31918-1
Online ISBN:978-3-642-31919-8
eBook Packages:Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)
Share this paper
Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative