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Abstract
Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO2 emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.
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Notes
As Pimentel and Pimentel (1996) have shown, there is a strong correlation between global energy use and world population growth, particularly after 1700.
A limited resource may be a non-renewable or renewable fuel and mineral, the waste absorption capacity of the environment, or even time.
There are some exceptions: In response to environmental regulations, the release of a few selected pollutants has been reduced significantly or in some cases eliminated completely (see Sect. 6.2 for examples).
The fact that all industrial and economic activities have inherently unavoidable environmental impacts is also supported by the second law of thermodynamics which states that “order” in the techno-sphere can only be created at the expense of generating “disorder” in the biosphere. For a detailed discussion of this topic, see Cleveland and Ruth (1997), Connelly and Koshland (1997), Faber, Niemes, and Stephan (1995), Glasby (1988), Huesemann (2001,2003), O’Connor (1994), and Ruth (1993,1995).
It has been argued that GDP can in principle increase “indefinitely” because it only reflects the amount of money circulating through the economy. This is correct but in order for GDP growth to continue without concomitant material consumption, people would have to focus on buying and selling personal services that do not require material and energy resources. This type of GDP growth would not result in a rise in material affluence as has been experienced in the last two centuries (Dresner,2002, p. 105).
It is interesting to note that even at the molecular level, the active sites of enzymes also become with increasing substrate concentration saturated in a curvilinear fashion (Nelson & Cox,2005).
In an interesting study of the influence of direct democracy on subjective well-being in different Swiss cantons (states), Frey and Stutzer (2000) found that direct democratic participation via popular referenda had a greater effect on happiness than living in the top rather than in the bottom of the income category.
Some creativity will be needed to express social status in non-consumptive ways. Here we can learn from the military which for many years has successfully employed very simple and inexpensive symbols such as stars and stripes on uniforms to exhibit rank.
Even if the accrued savings are not immediately spent but rather placed in a bank account or otherwise invested, they will eventually be spent in the future. Thus, saving results in delayed consumption.
The average individual income of the global top 20% is around 150 times larger than the bottom 20%. Similarly, the net worth of a few hundred billionaires is equal to the combined “wealth” (or lack thereof) of more than 2 billion of the world’s poorest people (Korten,1995).
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Critical Science Institute, 998, Carlsborg, WA, 98324, USA
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Huesemann, M.H., Huesemann, J.A. Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations.Environ Dev Sustain10, 787–825 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-007-9085-4
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