Hugh Grant’s ‘Heretic’ Could Scare Off ‘Venom 3’ This Weekend; Curtains Lift On ‘The Best Christmas Pageant Ever’ – Box Office Preview
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It’s not that clear cut that Sony’sVenom: The Last Dancewill take No. 1 in its third weekend, with the movie looking to do around$12M. Exhibitors are betting thatA24‘sHereticcould do as much, if not more. A24 projections are at$8M from 3,200 theaters for the Hugh Grant horror movie directed byA Quiet Placearchitects Scott Beck and Bryan Woods.
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Heretic,whichmade its world premiere at TIFF, follows two young Mormon missionaries, who are forced to prove their faith when they knock on the wrong door and are greeted by a diabolical Mr. Reed (Grant), becoming ensnared in his deadly game of cat-and-mouse. The R-rated movie counts 94% certified fresh reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. There were some sneaks in Salt Lake City, but overall previews kick off at 7 p.m. Thursday. The target is young folks, 18-34.
Venom 3 had a very good second Tuesday on Election Day of $3.3M, +56% from its second Monday and only off 28% from its first Tuesday of $4.6M. Tuesdays are bargain-ticket days. The running cume is$95.3M, and the Kelly Marcel-directed feature starring Tom Hardy will cross the$100M mark on Friday.
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Lionsgate has Kingdom Story Company’s Dallas Jenkins-directed feature take of Barbara Robinson bestsellerThe Best Christmas Pageant Ever,which insiders forecast at $6M-$8M from 3,000 theaters. Exhibition, however, believes that a$10M+ start isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
The family film had early sneaks last weekend and is 92% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with critics and 100% with audiences. Thursday previews are at 4 p.m. The pic’s blurb: The Herdmans are absolutely the worst kids in the history of the world. They lie, they steal, they bully — and now they’ve hijacked the town Christmas pageant. Judy Greer, Lauren Graham, Pete Holmes and Molly Belle Wright star.
Also wide this weekend is Vertical’s George Nolfi-directed sci-fi movieElevation,starring Anthony Mackie and Monica Baccarin at 1,416 theaters; Fathom’sAndrea Bocelli 30: The Celebration at 1,200 theaters; and the George Huang-directed action filmWeekend in Taipei,starring Luke Evans. Luc Besson co-wrote the pic from Ketchup Entertainment, which is at 1,021 sites.
Anora,thePalme d’Or winner from Neon starring Mikey Madison, is expanding from 253 sites to 1,100 this Friday in its fourth frame. The movie counts $4.3M through Tuesday and owns the year’s best opening per-theater average with $91,700.
As my colleagueNancy Tartaglione reported, Amazon MGM Studios’ $200M Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans Christmas action movieRed One,is flying abroad this weekend via Warner Bros with$25M-$30M. The movie opens stateside on Nov. 15 with an eye at a$35M+.
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4 Comments
- Anonymous
I’m calling it now. “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” number one this weekend with $20 million. There’s a lot of hype among the core audience and folks familiar with the story. This one could even leg out to $75-$80 million
- Sam E
Jenkins has a following but this feels like an interesting pivot from The Chosen and Hugh Grant has mostly been known for romantic comedies. Good reviews, not much competition and a holiday help though. My guess is both perform on the high side of predictions with 15-mil.
- Danny Porcaro
I say Heretic easily beats out The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. More people are fans of Hugh Grant. Most people don’t even know who the hell Pete Holmes is. Plus that just looks like a corny Christmas type of movie that’s already been done before. Heretic is original and unique.
- Anonymous
I agree with you and A24 has a reputation in the horror genre. It also will be the most talked film this week, because how good it is for the general audience and like you said, original and unique. So it definitely will get #1 and the best Christmas pageant probably will perform better, but get #3rd. Next week will be interesting for #2, because red one will get #1 even if it unperformed, which it will and bad word of mouth will spread and leaving an alternate to see heretic and the best Christmas pageant or anything else currently playing. So I expect heretic and the best Christmas pageant fighting for #2 next week and they both might get into the top #5 the week after that.
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