‘Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’ Seeing $78M 5-Day US, $240M WW: Why Sequel Is In Better Position Than ‘Indy’ – Box Office Update
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UPDATE SATURDAY AM:In the wake of the older-skewing, very expensiveIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destinystumbling at the box office with an $83.8M Friday-Tuesday domestic start, sources have called upon me to evaluate a similarly priced, older dude franchise sequel at around $300M. That’s this weekend’sMission: Impossible –Dead Reckoning Part One,which, analyzed by the same measuring stick — particularly given the pic’s U.S./Canada 5-day of$78M — is well-below the $90M trackingParamount was hoping for. Three-day here is$54.2M.
But here is the root of the root, and the bud of the bud, and that isDead ReckoningandDial of Destinyare not the same. Already, in its running global take of$122.2M through yesterday,Dead Reckoningis on the verge of overtaking the $130M global start ofIndy.
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In fact,Dead Reckoning is bound to have the upper hand in the long-run, particularly on a global basis.
Yes, I just said that.
Dead Reckoning‘s demos are very similar toDial of Destiny: 55+ was both their largest quad (Mission at 22%,Indy at 25%), Men over 25 are dominant in the turnout (respectively 46%, 43%), the prime moviegoing demo of 18-34 is just over a third for both (37%, 36%), and so on.
However, the reviews and audiences exits onDead ReckoningburyDial of Destiny. In updated Friday night PostTrak exits,Dead Reckoninggets 5 stars and 90% from audiences (Indyonly received 4 stars and 79%), with men/women at 62% / 38% grading it 90% / 89% (Indy‘s grades for both were 74% and 85%). Deal with it, Disney: The ball was dropped quality wise onDial of Destiny, and the sequel is suffering with critics and fans. We expect more from Lucasfilm, especially on a legacy finale.
Grosses went down betweenIndiana Jonesmovies, while grosses went up onMissionmovies:Dead Reckoning could see a 5-day franchise record still, bestingMission:Imposible II’s $78.8M. The Cruise feature is still in its prime; keep reading.
Said one rival studio executive source this AM, “With these reviews and PostTrak numbers, I would expect this one to leg out through summer — these are strong numbers.”
If anything, the Tom Cruise sequel has all the mojo to not only outstripIndydomestically, but the potential to make significantly more overseas — even if China doesn’t pull in a $100M+ gross like it did onMission: Impossible – Fallout, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, andMission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Cruise’s previous threeMissionmovies generated over 70% of their global box office abroad.Indyis not going to do that. As we told you yesterday, the global outlook forDead Reckoningis still around $240M; As of last weekend,Indy‘s global was slightly more domestic than foreign, 51% to 49%.
But wait a second, wait a second — wasn’tDead Reckoningsuppose to open to $90M over five days? This is surely an upset, no? The reality of the situation here stateside is that thereisn’t anyTop Gun: Maverickhalo effect. That long-awaited sequel brought out non-moviegoers, people who haven’t been to the movies in years.Dead Reckoningis bringing its finite, older-skewing fanbase. As aMissionmovie,Dead Reckoning‘s start here isn’t below its franchise expectations.
Hold on again – doesn’tDead Reckoning stand to lose as much money asDial of Destiny? Both cost about the same. What’s clear is that the industry is still releasing over-budgeted movies that were challenged by Covid stops;Dead Reckoningbeing one of the first movies to shut down because of the pandemic in Italy back in early 2020. The box office to profit measure for some of these tentpoles is still a hurdle, and will continue to be for a while. These movies weren’t made under normal circumstances, and Disney and Paramount both invested heavily in prime IP under the notion that they would deliver, and it’s better to perfect and avoid scaling back costs. Who doesn’t want to invest more on a trusted franchise sequel, especially a global star who delivered one of the highest-grossing movies of last year inTop Gun: Maverick?
However, as we said above — the word of mouth onDead Reckoningwill empower it, even withBarbienext weekend potentially posting Little Mermaidnumbers ($95M+ 3-day) and adult-leaningOppenheimerin the mix, and that buzz will carry the Cruise film through all ancillaries.
Let’s step back again and assess —Dead Reckoningis posting a lower 3-day and 5-day next toDial of Destiny.Why is that? The notion is that withDead Reckoninghaving all the goods in great reviews and audience exits, there was no reason for it to debut on a Wednesday stateside. The movie could have gone on Friday and saw a $78M 3-day, which would have been a record opening for the Cruise series. I was under the impression that the movie, at a long running time of 2 hours and 43 minutes, would benefit from a 5-day launch, given that there’s fewer showtimes at cinemas, and it would propel word of mouth. However, another source splashed water in my face and reminded me that theexhibition infrastructure as it is has the capacity and the power to deliver enormous box office grosses: Hello,Avengers: Endgamewas a three-hour movie and holds the opening domestic box office record opening with $357.1M.
LikeIndy,couldMissionhave expanded to a younger audience? Of course, and Cruise might want to consider hiring some popular YA stars for future sequels. Imagine the juiced gross on aMission: Impossibleif Harry Styles or Zendaya were part of the ensemble.
The Cruise sequel is playing strongest in the East, West & Mountain. Meanwhile, red state faveSound of Freedom is throwing off those percentages, as it’s so strong in the middle of the country. Meanwhile, 53% ofSound of Freedom‘s$23.6Msecond weekend (up a massive 20%) is coming from the South, South Central, and Midwest (parts of the country that do very well with Cruise movies).
PLFs and Imax screens are driving 42% ofDead Reckoning‘s business to date.
In 13 days,Sound of Freedom,with$82M, will have made more thanEverything Everywhere All at Once‘s lifetime domestic of $77.1M. Of course, both movies appeal to polar opposites. But it’s interesting to note their comparison, as both movies were unexpected outliers that were unforeseen in their success at the B.O.
This movie is stoking the Fox News Channel crowd to get out to the movies, and is appealing to them in its subject of child-trafficking, something which some right wingers believe is the fault of the left. The movie’s success is a testament to its star, title, and release date: It headlines Jesus (Jim Caviezel fromPassion of the Christ), and the distributor, Angels Studios, was adamant that the movie open on July 4. Why? The picture has the word “Freedom” in the title, and that says something to the red state crowd, especially on the Day of Independence.
Total weekend box office is an estimated$130.3M from all titles, off 2% from a year ago, whenThor: Love and Thunderled the box office in its second weekend, and +3% from pre-pandemic 2019, whenSpider-Man: Far From Homeheld No. 1 in its second frame.
1.)Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One(Par) 4,327 theaters, Fri $16.55M, 3-day$54.2M, 5-day$78M/Wk 1
2.)Sound of Freedom (Angel) 3,265 (+413) theaters, Fri $7M (+35%), 3-day$23.6M (+20%), Total$82M/Wk 2
3.)Insidous: The Red Door (Sony/Blum) 3,188 theaters Fri $4.15M (-73%), 3-day $12.65M(-61%)/Total$57.7M/Wk 2
4.)Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis) 3,865 (-735) theaters, Fri $3.3M (-57%) 3-day$11.4M(-58%)/Total$144.7M/Wk 3
5.)Elemental(Dis) 3,235 (-205) theaters, Fri $2.6M (-13%) 3-day$8.5M (-15%), Total $125M/Wk 5
6.)Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 2,577 (-446) theaters, Fri $1.72M (-25%) 3-day$5.7M (-29%) Total$368.4M/Wk 7
7.)Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par) 2,041 (-434) theaters, Fri $930K (-33%) 3-day$3.44M(-33%) Total$152.7M/Wk 6
8.)No Hard Feelings(Sony) 2,053 (-633) theaters, Fri $1M (-40%) 3-day$3.16M (-41%), Total$46.4M/Wk 4
9.)Joy Ride (LG) 2,820 theaters, Fri $770K (-71%) 3-day$2.44M (-58%)/Total$10.4M/Wk 2
10.)The Little Mermaid(Dis) 1,615 (-465) theaters, Fri $675K (-38%) 3-day$2.2M (-40%) Total$293.7M/ Wk 8
UPDATE FRIDAY PM: As we told you, it’s all about global when it comes to the opening of Paramount/Skydance’s Tom Cruise sequelMission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Oneand we hear a$240 millionglobal start is being forecasted right now. Stateside, the 5-day is$76Mafter what is expected to be a$16MFriday and$52.2M3-day at 4,327 theaters. Offshore opening will be$164M.
Anything north of a $78.8M 5-day domestic is an opening record for the franchise stateside; currently, that benchmark is owned by the Wednesday-through-Sunday start of 2000’sMission: Impossible II.(Deadline’s Nancy Tartaglione will have more details on foreign later this weekend.) China is eyeing a $27M-$30M weekend, not too shabby for a Hollywood film now. We’ll take it. The lastMission: Impossible, 2018’sFallout, posted a $76.1M in the PRC (not accounting for inflation and currency swings); that was a much different time for Hollywood movies. Note Japan, a bigMissionmarket, isn’t in this opening suite.
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Angel Studios’Sound of Freedomcontinues to ring loudly at 3,265 theaters with a second Friday of $6M (+15%), a second weekend between$20M-$22.5M, and running cume that could reach$81M by EOD Sunday. This Jim Caviezel thriller is bound for a $100M-plus gross. Rivals are even betting substantially more.
Sony/Stage 6 Films/Blumhouse’sInsidious: The Red Dooris seeing a $4.35M Friday, -71%, with a second weekend of$13.5M, -59%, and running total by Sunday of $58.6M at 3,188 theaters.
Disney/Lucasfilm’sIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,booked at 3,865 spots, is seeing a third Friday of $3.6M, -53%, and third weekend of$12.9M, -53%, and a running total by Sunday of$146.2M.
Disney/Pixar’sElementalcontinues to hold in the top five with an estimated fifth weekend of$8.8M, a great -12% hold, and a running total of$125.3M. That will fire it pastLightyear‘s final domestic of $118.3M. Friday is estimated to be around $2.5M at 3,235 theaters.
UPDATE, FRIDAY AM:Mission: Impossible –Dead Reckoning Part Onesaw$8.3 million million on Thursday, repping a 47% decline from the Wednesday opening plus previews of $15.5M. The two-day total for the Paramount/Skydance feature is$23.8M from 4,049 theaters. Hopefully this film spikes today. I mean, it will spike today, it’s just by how much given that A CinemaScore and 4 1/2 stars and 88% on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak. Guys at 65% gave the movie its best grades at 90%. Women at 35% weren’t that far behind at 86%.
A $90M five-day total seems unlikely, with rivals spotting $50M over three days and$73M over five. We’ll dissect what’s up here on this near-$300M production as the numbers become clearer; the feature went through several Covid delays. Right nowM:I‘s box office looks similar to that of Paramount’s 2017Transformers: The Last Knight,which was another long movie at 2 hours and 34 minutes that opened on Wednesday to $15.6M and Thursday to $8.1M for a two-day of $23.7M. However, that was largely a younger-guy-skewing feature versus the 74% over 25 here; and it was a B+ picture and not one of the fan-faves for the robots-in-disguise series.Last Knight‘s first Friday was $13.7M.
Last night’s 7 p.m. Dolby auditorium show forDead Reckoning at the AMC Porter Ranch (30 minutes north of Los Angeles, and where Nicole Kidman shot the exhib’s commercial) was nearly sold out. What that exemplifies for these big tentpoles is that we’re under-screened when it comes to premium-format auditoriums. There’s no reason why a big star like Tom Cruise should have to go around asking for more PLF screens on a movie for which he’s already doing 360-degree press; exhibition has to build more of them if we’re going to expand the marketplace.Missionis expected to have its grab of PLFs next weekend despite Universal’s three-hour Christopher Nolan epicOppenheimermuscling in.
Speaking of publicity, especially at a time when there aren’t any late-night talk shows,Dead Reckoninghad a ton of it. Cruise is becoming a rare movie star, together with Dwayne Johnson, who knows how to go all out in making a movie a fire-breathing event and having the world know about it. I mean, this movie was promoted at two different CinemaCons, 2021 and 2022; there was the Rome premiere where the pic was shot including a mind-blowing chase scene; as well as multiple global stops by Cruise. RelishMix says that the social media universe reach forDead Reckoningis at an awesome 529.9M across TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube views, which is ahead of Top Gun: Maverick (401.5 SMU/$126.7M opening),John Wick 4 (452.3M SMU/$73.8M opening) andIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny(296.4M/$60.3m opening).
Meanwhile, Angel Studios’Sound of Freedomcontinues to wow. The pic posted daily middays of $4M+, out-pegging Sony/Stage 6 Films/Blumhouse’sInsidious: The Red Doorevery day. The latter pic took No. 1 last weekend with $33M. On Thursday,Sound of Freedomgrossed an estimated $4.5M, +4% over Wednesday. Pic’s last seven days grossed $36.5M for a running total of $58.5M. Angel Studios released a statement yesterday, squashing rumors that AMC has made it difficult for patrons to see the movie. That’s fake news, with the circuit selling more than 1 million tickets so far for the Jim Caviezel thriller. The pic is getting 450 theaters added to the current count of 2,852 theaters.
Red Doorwas third on Thursday with$2.5M, -1% from Wednesday and a first week of$45M at 3,188 locations.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destinydid$2.3Mon Thursday at 4,600 theaters, even with Wednesday, for a second-week take of$38.6M and a running total of$133.3M.
Disney has fifth place withElementaland a fourth Thursday of $1.6M, +6% from Wednesday, with a$17M fourth week; its running total is$116.5M at 3,440 theaters. Get a load of this: Despite the Pixar movie opening lower thanLightyear, $29.6M to $50.5M, it’s going to outstrip thatToy Storyspinoff’s final domestic total of $118.3M.
UPDATED THURSDAY AM: Paramount reported$15.5Mfor the Wednesday opening day ofMission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which includes previews. The studio isn’t reporting a 3 and 5-day projection as those type of forecasts can be wonky and it ultimately boils down to Friday business.
Rivals, however, are betting at this point in time thatDead Reckoningisn’t as big as the $90M tracking purported it to be. More like$47M for the 3-day and $70.5Mper industry estimates right now. The worry here is if this isIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destinyall over again with a very expensive film near $300M production cost, long-running time and older dude skewing franchise falling short of expectations. There’s a chance on a five-day basis, this could still be a franchise record start: Mission: Impossible II has the best five-day opening for the Cruise series at $78.8M.
With a running time of 2 hours and 43 minutes, it’s clear thatDead Reckoningis appointment viewing for moviegoers likeAvatar: The Way of Water andBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever. However, it’s a fast 2 hours and 43 minutes given the awesome action set pieces in the movie.
Last night on Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak,Dead Reckoninglooked similar toIndy‘s Thursday night demos with 34% over 45, 74% over 25 and heavily male at 65%.
However, here’s the box office viagra that Ethan Hunt has over Indiana Jones, and hopefully this will bode well in spreading word of mouth, especially with the younger demos:Dead Reckoninghas an A CinemaScore toDial of Destiny‘s B+. That’s the second A for aMissionmovie after 2018’s Fallout. The franchise counts three A- grades forRogue Nation, Mission Impossible IIIandGhost Protocol. Mission: Impossibledid B+ whileMission: Impossible II got a B. It’s also one of the best reviewedMissionsof all-time at 96% certified fresh toFallout‘s 97% certified fresh. In addition,Mission‘s edge overIndyis that Cruise and the franchise are more of a draw at the overseas boxoffice than the Lucasfilm IP (which isn’t even known in certain big markets like China). Korea and Japan are expected to be big forDead Reckoning.It’s overseas in the end that could possibly bail this very priceyMissionmovie out.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destinyopened to $130M WW, with a domestic 3-day of $60.3M. The Friday-Tuesday five day was $83.8M. Current global on the Lucasfilm franchise finale is north of $256M WW.
On social media, RelishMix spots, “Convo tone onDead Reckoning runs positive as fans acknowledge Tom Cruise’s tireless tenacity as Hollywood’s modern daredevil, proclaiming he’s ‘hauling modern cinema on his back.’ Paired with filmmaker Christoper McQuarrie’s daring direction and newcomer Hayley Atwell, some already herald it as potentially ‘the best action movie of all time.’ This series is being elevated above competitors, notablyFast X andThe Fast and Furious franchise, with fans assertively favoring its consistently epic entries — ‘This franchise is the movie embodiment of aged fine wine.’ Even with a chorus of praise, a handful of viewers yearn for fresh elements, countering the franchise’s predictable beats. Yet, theMission: Impossible saga continues its powerful performance, captivating its loyal audience and igniting anticipation for this new chapter.”
UPDATEDWEDNESDAY PM:Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One‘s opening day is looking like $16 million, which includes the $7M in previews.
Yes,Indiana Jones and the Dial of DestinyandMission: Impossible – Falloutboth posted first days in the $22M-$23M range, but those were Fridays. This is about the long play of the movie, and Tom Cruise fare is back-loaded. The reason why this pic is going for the five-day record is due to its length, at 2 hours and 43 minutes. It’s expected, especially with a current great Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94%, to get to $90M, a franchise record opening, by Sunday. Again, it’s still early. These numbers could go up.
Sound of Freedomis looking at second place with $3.9M and a running total of $53.4M. That daily gross is holding steady with Monday and Tuesday. Very impressive.
UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Paramount/Skydance’sMission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part Onecame in at the high end of expectations with $7M in previews. Pic was booked at 3,300 locations and hikes its theater count up to 4,000-plus today including Imax and PLF.
I’m told that the fan PLF money from Monday shows isn’t included in that $7M figure. The previous chapter,Mission: Impossible – Falloutposted Thursday previews of $6M, a record for the franchise. Next to other summer comps, Disney/Lucasfilm’sIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destinyposted $7.2M in previews.
The Rotten Tomatoes audience score out of the gate after previews is 94%.
Tom Cruise and filmmaker Christopher McQuarrie have been touring the film; the duo making stops in Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, and Washington DC, greeting fans at cinemas.
In early estimates this morning, Angel Studio’ Jim Caviezel thrillerSound of Freedomwon another weekday with$4M yesterday, beating Sony/Blumhouse/Stage 6 Films’Insidious: The Red Doorwhich had$3.48M. Both pics had even holds from Monday percent-wise.Sound of Freedomraises its running total to$49.7Min its eight-day run. Wow. It’s expected that the pic will post a -30% ease in weekend 2 with around $13M-$14M after a $19.6M reported 3-day last week.Red Door‘s five day run rises to $40M.
EXCLUSIVE:Paramount/Skydance’sMission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part Oneis looking at$6M-$7Min previews so far, which is bound to be higher than the Thursday previews of the lastMission Impossible – Falloutback in 2018 which did $6M. This is according to sources. The figures we’re seeing now could go higher or lower.
Dead Reckoningpreviews began at 2PM today, however, I hear there were PLF fan screenings on Monday and that handful of bucks is accounted for in the estimate.
Dead Reckoningis one of the longer films of the summer at 2 hours and 43 minutes with credits. Not as long asOppenheimer‘s 3 hours (opening on July 21), but longer thanIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny(2 hours and 34 minutes) andThe Flash(2 hours and 24 minutes). However, the action is unlike anything anyMission Impossible or Fast and Furiousmovie has ever delivered before. Seriously, that Rome, Italy car chase will make you want to see the movie again. Paramount is going for aMission:Impossible franchise five-day record here with a Wednesday start, which is smart given this sequel’s length and the limited amount of showtimes exhibitors can program. Disney did not execute a Wednesday start withIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, another older dude skewing film, the studio opting for a Friday launch and seeing $60.3M over three days before July 4.
The best reviewedMission: Impossibleof all-time at 98% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes,Dead Reckoningis projected to have a $90M five-day stateside, $250M+ worldwide.
Last year, the decades long-awaited sequelTop Gun: Maverickposted the best box office results of Cruise’s career with $19.3M in U.S. previews, $126.7M domestic opening, and $256.4M WW start. The pic finaled at $718.7M domestic (No. 1 pic for 2023 domestic), $1.49 billion WW (No 2 global for 2023 afterAvatar: The Way of Water).
Mission: Impossible – Falloutopened to $61.2M domestic, and legged out to $220.1M domestic, and $791.6M WW. Even ifMissioncomes up short this weekend, remember, Cruise’s movies are always backloaded at the B.O.
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210 Comments
- Anonymous
Seriously!? You can’t see how biased your take is? “Deal with it, Disney: The ball was dropped quality wise on Dial of Destiny” The numbers are more than comparable.
- Anonymous
Don’t forget Indy opened during a holiday.
- Anonymous
I’m watching the last movies on blu-ray. The great thing about this franchise is you can revisit the old ones and
they are kinda new again. - Rish Outfield
How likely is LITTLE MERMAID to cross $300million domestically?
- Anonymous
Probably by $1 or $2 million. Little Mermaid will cover its Production Budget, but the Marketing on it was one of the most expensive movies this year. It should break even in a year or less. It still leaves with Red Ink, though not too much. Sound Of Freedom, Creed 3, John Wick 4, Super Mario Bros, Spider-Verse and a few horror films are the only ones to turn profit. GOTG-3 managed to finish with Black Ink, but not very much of it.
- Everyone’s a winner baby that’s the truth
Are we in a bizarro world?
Dead Reckoning is just not as good a film as Indy 5.
DR: Part One is the weakest entry since MI:2 – it just is. The critics have given it a massive pass.
That’s not saying it’s a terrible film. It’s just not great like the previous 4 entries. And they need to mix up the flavour because it’s becoming Fast X. Seriously, this movie had multiple laugh out loud moments in the Vin Diesel cheeseball kinda way.
It also had some truly wonderful set pieces, and some that were huge disappointments in their execution.“Deal with it, Disney: The ball was dropped quality wise on Dial of Destiny” – For real? – I mean absolutely I think Disney should have a long look at themselves with how they positioned the marketing of Indy, and the Cannes gamble and fallout was painful to watch in this social media age. But the movie is written better, shot better and sounds better than DR:Pt 1.
I’m calling it – in 10/15yrs time Mangold is gonna get the respect he deserves for pulling off what was a sophisticated, nuanced, and affectionate farewell to a character who had actually grown and been affected by the world around him.
Any angry Indy fans who can’t see that are truly clouded by their own childhood blinker vision. Grow up. Harrison and the gang did. And bless them for still entertaining us.- Anonymous
Nice try James.
- Anonymous
I agree 100% with you, if you delete the finale paragraph.
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