Wave elections (1918-2016)/Senate waves
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House waves •Senate waves •Gubernatorial waves • State legislative waves |
Competitiveness in State Legislatures |
June 19, 2018
By:Rob Oldham and Jacob Smith
For 2018 to qualify historically as a wave election, Republicans must lose seven U.S. Senate seats in 2018.
The president's party lost seven or more U.S. Senate seats in 10 of the 48 Senate elections since 1918, ranging from seven seats lost under PresidentsCalvin Coolidge (1926) andHerbert Hoover (1930) to 13 seats lost under PresidentHerbert Hoover in 1932.
Three of the 10 wave elections happened in a president's first midterm election.
The median number of seats lost by the president’s party is one. The average number of seats lost is about two.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 wave elections. To see the full set of elections from 1918 to 2016,click here.
| U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[1] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -11 | R (flipped) | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -9 | D | |
| 2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -8 | D (flipped) | |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | R | Presidential | -8 | D | |
| 1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[2] | -7 | R | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
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Footnotes
- ↑Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. Senate following the election.
- ↑Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
