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Virginia State Senate elections, 2015

Incumbents retiring •Majority control Competitiveness •Qualifications

List of candidatesDistrict 1 •District 2 •District 3 •District 4 •District 5 •District 6 •District 7 •District 8 •District 9 •District 10 •District 11 •District 12 •District 13 •District 14 •District 15 •District 16 •District 17 •District 18 •District 19 •District 20 •District 21 •District 22•District 23 •District 24 •District 25 •District 26 •District 27 •District 28 •District 29 •District 30 •District 31 •District 32 •District 33 •District 34 •District 35 •District 36 •District 37 •District 38 •District 39 •District 40

Virginia State Senate

Elections for theVirginia State Senate took place in 2015. A primary election was held on June 9, 2015. The general election took place onNovember 3, 2015. Thesignature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run in this election was March 26, 2015.^[1]

The Virginia State Senate was one ofseven state legislative chambers throughout the country that held elections in November 2015. It was the only chamber where there was a possibility of a switch in partisan control.

Heading into the November election, Republicans held a two-seat (21-19) lead in the state Senate, which is 5 percent of the 40 seats up for election in 2015. Republicans were also in control of theHouse of Delegates by a margin of 67 to 33.

Incumbents retiring

Name	Party	Current Office
Jeffrey McWaters[2]	Republican	Senate District 8
John Watkins[3]	Republican	Senate District 10
Walter Stosch[4]	Republican	Senate District 12
Ralph Smith[5]	Republican	Senate District 19
Charles Colgan[6]	Democratic	Senate District 29
Toddy Puller[7]	Democratic	Senate District 36

Majority control

See also:Partisan composition of state senates

Heading into the November 3 election, the Republican Party held the majority in theVirginia State Senate. Republicans were able to maintain their 21-19 majority.

What was at stake?

TheVirginia State Senate featured a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans of two seats, which amounts to 5 percent of the chamber. In 2011, three districts were competitive and had a margin of victory of 5 percent or less.^[8] Heading into the general election, Virginia is one of 19 states that is under divided government and is therefore not one of thestate government trifectas.

A Ballotpedia analysis of partisan balance between1992 and 2013 showed that the Democratic Party was the majority in theVirginia State Senate for eight years, while the Republicans were the majority for 12 years.^[9]

Republicans held a two-seat (21-19) lead in the state Senate, which is 5 percent of the 40 seats up for election in 2015. Republicans were also in control of theHouse of Delegates by a margin of 67 to 33. The party hoped to retain the state Senate in order to controlGov. Terry McAuliffe's (D) legislative agenda and thecommittees.^[10] SinceLt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) could have broke the tie on most issues,Democrats only needed a net gain of one seat in the general election to take control of the state Senate.^[10]

Partisan balance 1992-2013

See also:Ballotpedia:Who Runs the States andBallotpedia:Who Runs the States, Virginia

Partisan breakdown of the Virginia legislature from 1992-2013

From 1992-2013, the Democratic Party was the majority in the Virginia State Senate for eight years while the Republicans were the majority for 12 years. Virginia was under Republicantrifectas for the final two years of the study.

Across the country, there were 541 Democratic and 517 Republican state senates from 1992 to 2013.

Over the course of the 22-year study, state governments became increasingly more partisan. At the outset of the study period (1992), 18 of the 49 states with partisan legislatures had single-party trifectas and 31 states had divided governments. In 2013, only 13 states had divided governments, while single-party trifectas held sway in 36 states, the most in the 22 years studied.

The chart below shows the partisan composition of theOffice of the Governor of Virginia, theVirginia State Senate and theVirginia House of Delegates from 1992 to 2013.

SQLI and partisanship

To read the full report on theState Quality of Life Index (SQLI) in PDF form, clickhere.

The chart below depicts the partisanship of the Virginia state government and Virginia'sState Quality of Life Index (SQLI) ranking for the years studied. For the SQLI, the states were ranked from 1-50 based on quality of life, with 1 being the best and 50 the worst. During the course of the study, Virginia experienced both Democratic and Republican trifectas as well as divided governments. For over half the years of the study, Virginia was ranked in the top 10. This occurred during a Democratic trifecta, Republican trifectas and divided government. Both its highest ranking, finishing first in 2006, and its lowest ranking, finishing 26th in 1997, occurred during divided governments.

• SQLI average with Democratic trifecta: 11.00
• SQLI average with Republican trifecta: 7.67
• SQLI average with divided government: 9.00

Chart displaying the partisanship of the Virginia government from 1992-2013 and the State Quality of Life Index (SQLI).

Key races

The following table details the key races in the general election for theVirginia State Senate and the 2011 margin of victory.

2015 Races to Watch, Virginia State Senate
District	Candidate 1	Candidate 2	Candidate 3	Candidate 4	Margin of Victory (2011)	MOV (2014 special election)
District 01	aJohn Miller (D)	Mark Matney (R)			D+3.62	-
District 06	aLynwood Lewis (D)	Richard Ottinger (R)			D+13.63	D+0.04
District 07	Gary McCollum (D)	aFrank Wagner (R)			R+100	-
District 10	Dan Gecker (D)	aGlen Sturtevant (R)	Marleen Durfee (I)	Carl Loser (L)	R+13.18	-
District 13	B. Jill McCabe (D)	aDick Black (R)			R+14.21	-
District 17	Ned Gallaway (D)	aBryce Reeves (R)			R+0.50	-
District 20	Kim Adkins (D)	aBill Stanley (R)			R+1.26	-
District 21	aJohn Edwards (D)	Nancy Dye (R)	Donald Caldwell (I)		D+11.93	-
District 29	aJeremy McPike (D)	Hal Parrish (R)			D+10.27	-

(Bold=Incumbent)

• District 1: In this district, incumbentJohn Miller (D) defeated DUI attorneyMark Matney (R) in the general election.^[11] Miller was re-elected with a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2011 and was elected to the chamber with a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2007.^[8] As of August 31, 2015, Miller had $111,583 in cash on hand, while Matney only had $1,823.^[12]

• District 6: IncumbentLynwood Lewis (D) defeated challengerRichard Ottinger (R) in the general election. Lewis won this seat in a January 2015special election by only 11 votes.^[10] Before joining the state Senate, Lewis served in theVirginia House of Delegates from 2004 to January 2014. In thisDemocratic-leaning seat, Lewis led Ottinger $177,814 to $33,909 in cash on hand as of August 31, 2015.^[12]

• District 7: IncumbentFrank Wagner (R) defeatedGary McCollum (D) in the general election. McCollum is a Cox Communications executive, minister and former Army Ranger. McCollum was the first challenger to face Wagner in a general election since he was first elected to the chamber in 2003.^[10] Campaign finance reports showed that he raised $250,000 from January to March, while Wagner raised $90,000. Wagner was not allowed to fundraise during the 45-day legislative session.^[13] As of August 31, 2015, Wagner had a cash-on-hand advantage of $521,748 to $471,960 against McCollum.^[12]

• District 10: In this open seat,Glen Sturtevant (R) defeatedDan Gecker (D),Marleen Durfee (I) andCarl Loser (L) in the general election. IncumbentJohn Watkins (R), who has represented the district since 1998, did not run for re-election.Democrats hoped to capture this seat, where they had won every statewide election in the district since 2012.^[13] In August 2015, Sturtevant had $40,122 in cash on hand, while Gecker had $151,907.^[12][14]

• District 17: IncumbentBryce Reeves (R) defeated Albemarle County School Board chairmanNed Gallaway (D) in the general election.^[15] In 2011, Reeves defeated incumbentR. Edward "Edd" Houck (D) by a margin of victory of 0.50 percent or by only 226 votes.^[8] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of August 31, 2015, Reeves had a cash-on-hand advantage of $564,022 to $18,711.^[12]

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• District 20: IncumbentBill Stanley (R) defeated former Martinsville MayorKim Adkins (D) in the general election.^[16] Stanley defeated incumbentRoscoe Reynolds (D) in 2011 by a margin of victory of 1.26 percent or by 644 votes.^[8] As of August 31, 2015, Stanley held a cash-on-hand advantage against Adkins of $154,223 to $31,577.^[12]

• District 21: IncumbentJohn Edwards (D) defeatedNancy Dye (R) andDonald Caldwell (I) in the general election. Caldwell, a long-timeDemocrat, was the longest-serving commonwealth's attorney in Roanoke.^[17] Bob Denton, a political analyst and head of Virginia Tech’s communications department, suggested that Caldwell's candidacy may have boosted Dye's campaign, providing the potential for a GOP upset.^[17] According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Dye had $104,194 in cash on hand and Edwards had $92,383 as of May 27.^[17] Edwards was re-elected in 2011 with a margin of victory of 11.93 percent.^[8] In August 2015, Edwards led Dye $168,655 to $105,412 in cash on hand.^[12] As of September 30, 2015, Dye had $157,479 in cash-on-hand, while Edwards had $138,848 and Caldwell had $35,280.^[18]

• District 29: In this open seat,Jeremy McPike (D) defeatedHal Parrish (R) in the general election. IncumbentCharles Colgan (D), who represented the district since 1976, did not run for re-election. Colgan was re-elected in 2011 by a margin of victory of 10.27 percent.^[8] Parrish has served as the mayor of Manassas since 2009 and on the Manassas City Council since 1993.^[17] McPike, the director of general services for the city of Alexandria, lost a close election in 2013 againstDel. Scott Lingamfelter (R).^[17] McPike lost by only 228 votes. According to August 2015 campaign finance reports, Parrish led McPike $218,197 to $102,775 in cash on hand.^[12] As of September 30, 2015, Parrish had $143,078 in cash-on-hand, while McPike had $19,841.^[19] On October 22, 2015,Everytown for Gun Safety, a group financed by ex-New York City MayorMichael Bloomberg, announced that it planned to spend $1.5 million in TV and online ads for Democrat Jeremy McPike.^[20]

Competitiveness

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 20 of the 40 districts up for election in 2015, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 10 Democrats and 10 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in just 20 of the 40 districts up for election. This is a decrease from 2011, when 24 districts featured general election competition.

Primary challenges

Four incumbents faced primary competition on June 9. Six incumbents did not seek re-election in 2015, and the remaining 30 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. One of the 11 incumbents to face primary competition was defeated in the June 3 primary.

The June 9 primary elections featured three contested Democratic primaries and five contested Republican primaries. According to unofficial results, three of those primaries were mildly competitive—with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent—with the remaining five primaries featuring a margin of victory greater than 10 percent. The contested primaries with mildly competitive elections were:

District 29:Jeremy McPike defeatedAtif Qarni andMichael Futrell.

District 11:Amanda Chase defeated incumbentSteve Martin andBarry Moore.

District 12:Siobhan Dunnavant defeatedBill Janis,Vince Haley andEdward Whitlock.

Retiring incumbents

Six incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 34 (85 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—two Democrats and four Republicans—can be foundabove.

Historical context

See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Qualifications

State senators must be at least 21 years of age at the time of the election, residents of the district they represent and qualified to vote for members of theVirginia General Assembly.^[21]

List of candidates

Qualified primary and general election candidates are listed below.^[22] If a candidate was unopposed for a primary, no primary was held and the candidate was declared the party nominee.

The deadline for both the Democratic and Republican parties to select nominees for any districts without primary candidates was June 9.

Independent and third-party candidates had to file with the state by June 9 in order to qualify for the general election ballot.

District 1

Democratic candidates:

☑John Miller (I)

Republican candidates:

☑Mark Matney

General election:

☑John Miller: 17,989

☐Mark Matney: 12,278

District 2

Democratic candidates:

☑Mamie Locke (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Mamie Locke: 17,459

District 3

Democratic candidates:

☑Hugo E. Reyes

Republican candidates:

☑Tommy Norment (I)

General election:

☐Hugo E. Reyes: 15,432

☑Tommy Norment: 35,520

District 4

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Ryan McDougle (I)

General election:

☑Ryan McDougle: 37,882

District 5

Democratic candidates:

☑Kenny Alexander (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Kenny Alexander: 13,955

District 6

Democratic candidates:

☑Lynwood Lewis (I)

Republican candidates:

☑Richard Ottinger

General election:

☑Lynwood Lewis: 16,738

☐Richard Ottinger: 11,386

District 7

Democratic candidates:

☑Gary McCollum

Republican candidates:

☑Frank Wagner (I)

General election:

☐Gary McCollum: 15,434

☑Frank Wagner: 18,266

District 8

Note: IncumbentJeffrey McWaters (R) did not run for re-election.

Democratic candidates:

☑Dave Belote

Republican primary:

☑Bill R. DeSteph, Jr: 2,280

☐Craig Hudgins: 928

General election:

☐Dave Belote: 11,075

☑Bill R. DeSteph, Jr: 15,905

District 9

Democratic candidates:

☑Donald McEachin (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Donald McEachin: 31,067

District 10

Note: IncumbentJohn Watkins (R) did not run for re-election.

Democratic primary:

☑Dan Gecker: 4,730

☐Emily Francis: 3,487

☐Alex McMurtrie: 1,957

Republican candidates:

☑Glen Sturtevant

Independent Green candidates:

☑Marleen Durfee

Libertarian candidates:

☑Carl Loser

General election:

☐Dan Gecker: 26,173

☑Glen Sturtevant: 27,651

☐Marleen Durfee: 1,136

☐Carl Loser: 527

District 11

Democratic candidates:

☑E. Wayne Powell

Republican primary:

☑Amanda Chase: 4,907

☐Steve Martin (I): 4,238

☐Barry Moore: 2,977

General election:

☐E. Wayne Powell: 15,485

☑Amanda Chase: 27,218

District 12

Note: IncumbentWalter Stosch (R) did not run for re-election.

Democratic candidates:

☑Deborah Repp

Republican primary:

☑Siobhan Dunnavant: 7,008

☐Vince Haley: 4,046

☐Bill Janis: 5,573

☐Edward Whitlock: 1,728

Independent candidates:

☑Robert "Scott" Johnson

General election:

☐Deborah Repp: 16,797

☑Siobhan Dunnavant: 25,504

☐Robert "Scott" Johnson: 1,881

District 13

Democratic candidates:

☑B. Jill McCabe

Republican candidates:

☑Dick Black (I)

General election:

☐B. Jill McCabe: 23,544

☑Dick Black: 25,898

District 14

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican primary:

☑John Cosgrove (I): 2,586

☐Bill Haley: 1,417

General election:

☑John Cosgrove: 15,371

District 15

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Frank Ruff (I)

General election:

☑Frank Ruff: 32,745

District 16

Democratic primary:

☑Rosalyn Dance (I): 4,967

☐Joseph Preston: 3,039

Note:Derik Jones was removed from the ballot after he did not attain the required number of valid signatures.^[23]

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Independent candidates:

☑Joseph Morrissey

General election:

Note:Joseph Morrissey withdrew from the race on September 10, 2015.^[24]However, as of October 14, 2015, he remained on the ballot.^[25][26]

☑Rosalyn Dance: 17,331

☐Joseph Morrissey: 6,090

District 17

Democratic candidates:Note:Traci Dippert (D) withdrew from the race before the primary.^[27]

☑Ned Gallaway

Republican candidates:

☑Bryce Reeves (I)

General election:

☐Ned Gallaway: 14,915

☑Bryce Reeves: 24,519

District 18

Democratic candidates:

☑Louise Lucas (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Louise Lucas: 20,321

District 19

Note: IncumbentRalph Smith (R) did not run for re-election.

Democratic candidates:

☑Michael L. Hamlar

Republican candidates:

☑David Suetterlein

Independent candidates:

☑Steven L. Nelson

General election:

☐Michael L. Hamlar: 15,738

☑David Suetterlein: 33,120

☐Steven L. Nelson: 2,134

District 20

Democratic candidates:

☑Kim Adkins

Republican candidates:

☑Bill Stanley (I)

General election:

☐Kim Adkins: 16,455

☑Bill Stanley: 22,701

District 21

Democratic candidates:

☑John Edwards (I)

Republican candidates:

☑Nancy Dye

Independent candidates:

☑Donald Caldwell

General election:

☑John Edwards: 20,881

☐Nancy Dye: 17,438

☐Donald Caldwell: 2,626

District 22

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Thomas Garrett (I)

General election:

☑Thomas Garrett: 24,913

District 23

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Stephen Newman (I)

General election:

☑Stephen Newman: 27,309

District 24

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican primary:

☑Emmett Hanger (I): 7,648

☐Dan Moxley: 3,491

☐Marshall Pattie: 1,551

General election:

☑Emmett Hanger: 34,980

District 25

Democratic candidates:

☑Creigh Deeds (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Creigh Deeds: 34,419

District 26

Democratic candidates:

☑April Moore

Republican candidates:

☑Mark Obenshain (I)

General election:

☐April Moore: 11,308

☑Mark Obenshain: 25,042

District 27

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Jill Vogel (I)

General election:

☑Jill Vogel: 34,203

District 28

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Richard Stuart (I)

General election:

☑Richard Stuart: 30,187

District 29

Note: IncumbentCharles Colgan (D) did not run for re-election.

Democratic primary:

☑Jeremy McPike: 1,377

☐Michael Futrell: 660

☐Atif Qarni: 1,152

Republican candidates:

☑Hal Parrish

General election:

☑Jeremy McPike: 16,489

☐Hal Parrish: 14,131

District 30

Democratic candidates:

☑Adam Ebbin (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Independent Green candidates:

☑J. Ron Fisher

General election:

☑Adam Ebbin: 27,274

☐J. Ron Fisher: 7,431

District 31

Democratic candidates:

☑Barbara Favola (I)

Republican candidates:

☑George V. Forakis

General election:

☑Barbara Favola: 26,373

☐George V. Forakis: 15,904

District 32

Democratic candidates:

☑Janet Howell (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Janet Howell: 31,156

District 33

Democratic candidates:

☑Jennifer Wexton (I)

Republican candidates:

☑Stephen B. Hollingshead

General election:

☑Jennifer Wexton: 18,577

☐Stephen B. Hollingshead: 14,190

District 34

Democratic candidates:

☑Chap Petersen (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

General election:

☑Chap Petersen: 27,690

District 35

Democratic candidates:

☑Dick Saslaw (I)

Republican candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Independent Green candidates:

☑Terry W. Modglin

General election:

☑Dick Saslaw: 18,754

☐Terry W. Modglin: 6,055

District 36

Note: IncumbentLinda Todd "Toddy" Puller (D) did not run for re-election.

Democratic candidates:

☑Scott Surovell

Republican candidates:

☑Jerry Foreman

General election:

☑Scott Surovell: 18,320

☐Jerry Foreman: 11,890

District 37

Democratic candidates:

☑Dave Marsden (I)

Republican candidates:

☑David M. Bergman

General election:

☑Dave Marsden: 18,966

☐David M. Bergman: 15,216

District 38

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑A. Benton Chafin (I)

General election:

☑A. Benton Chafin: 31,025

District 39

Democratic candidates:

☑George Barker (I)

Republican candidates:

☑Joe Murray

General election:

☑George Barker: 20,083

☐Joe Murray: 17,101

District 40

Democratic candidates:

• No candidates filed for election.

Republican candidates:

☑Bill Carrico (I)

General election:

☑Bill Carrico: 36,838

See also

• Virginia State Senate
• Virginia State Legislature
• Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2015
• State legislative elections, 2015

External links

Suggest a link

• Virginia Department of Elections - Official November 3 general election results
• Virginia Department of Elections - 2015 general election candidates
• Virginia Department of Elections - June 9 Democratic primary results
• Virginia Department of Elections - June 9 Republican primary results
• Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Elections - Virginia General Assembly Candidate Filings
• Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Elections - 2015 June Democratic Primary Candidate List
• Virginia General Assembly
• Libertarian Party of Virginia

Footnotes

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