United States Senate elections, 2022
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November 8, 2022 |
As a result of the2022 U.S. Senate elections,Democrats retained control of the U.S. Senate, gaining 51 seats to Republicans' 49.[1]
Heading into Election Day, the U.S. Senate was evenly divided at 50-50 with Vice PresidentKamala Harris (D) casting tie-breaking votes, giving Democrats an effective majority.[2] Republicans needed a net pickup of one seat to gain control.
Democrats gained a seat Republicans formerly held, asJohn Fetterman (D) defeatedMehmet Oz (R) in theU.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. Incumbent SenatorPat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election.
The U.S. Senate election in Georgia advanced to aDec. 6 runoff. Incumbent Sen.Raphael Warnock (D) defeatedHerschel Walker (R) in the runoff.
Two special elections also took place on November 8, 2022.Markwayne Mullin (R) won thespecial election held to fill the final four years of Sen.Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced he would resign from office effective January 3, 2023.[3] The otherspecial election was held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term thatKamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in2016 before becoming vice president. That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2022. Incumbent Sen.Alex Padilla (D), who replaced Harris in the Senate, won both the special election and the regular election.
Thirty five seats — 14 held by Democrats and 21[4] held by Republicans — were up for election in 2022. Republicans were defending two Senate seats in statesJoe Biden (D) won in the2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats gained the seat in Pennsylvania after Fetterman defeated Oz, while Republicans held the seat in Wisconsin after incumbent Sen.Ron Johnson (R) defeatedMandela Barnes (D). Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in statesDonald Trump (R) won in 2020.
Seven of the seats up for election were open[5], meaning the incumbents were not running for re-election. Ahead of the election, Democrats held one of those seats while Republicans held five, including Pennsylvania, the only seat to change party hands.
All twenty-eight incumbents who ran for re-election won. This was the first time since 1914 that no Senate incumbent who ran lost re-election.[6]
Thirty-two of the 34 seats up for regular election in 2022 were last up for election in2016. Georgia and Arizona had seats up for election in 2022 that were up forspecial election in 2020.
On this page, you will find information on the following:
- Election results
- Margins of victory
- Seats up for election
- Incumbents not seeking re-election
- Partisan balance
- Battlegrounds
- Candidate lists by state
- Media analysis of 2022 U.S. Senate elections
- Political context
- Special elections
- Party committee fundraising
- Congressional approval rating
- Important dates and deadlines
Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. Senate election results.
Partisan balance
Democrats gained a net of one seat in the2022 general elections, maintaining control of the chamber. Republicans held 49 seats following the elections, while Democrats held 49 seats and independents who caucus with Democrats held two. After the elections, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she had changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent. Sinema said she would not caucus with Republicans and kept the committee assignments she had as a member of the Democratic caucus.[7]
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 8, 2022 | After the 2022 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 48[8] | 48 | |
| Republican Party | 50 | 49 | |
| Independent | 2[8] | 3[8][9] | |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Election results
This table shows the results of the U.S. Senate elections on November 8, 2022. There were 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022—14 seats held by Democrats and 21 held by Republicans. Of those, Democrats won 15 seats and Republicans won 20 seats. In 2022, Democrats had a net gain of one seat.
The map below shows what seats were up for election, the incumbent heading into the election in each state, the 2022 winner in each state, whether each seat was open, and race ratings before the election.
Margins of victory
The following table details the margins of victory in U.S. Senate elections in 2022.
The average margin of victory for U.S. Senate races was 19.8 percentage points, larger than the 18.1 percentage points average margin in 2020. The average MOV was 22.9 percentage points for Republicans and 16.68 percentage points for Democrats.
The narrowest margin in any U.S. Senate election in 2022 was 0.78 percentage points in theU.S. Senate election in Nevada betweenCatherine Cortez Masto (D) andAdam Laxalt (R). The largest MOV was inHawaii, whereBrian Schatz (D) defeatedBob McDermott (R) by a margin of 45.17 percentage points.
Incumbents who didn't seek re-election
The following table lists incumbents who didn't seek re-election in 2022.
In2020, 40 incumbent members of Congress—36 representatives and four senators—didn't seek re-election.
Senate
1 Democrat
5 Republicans
| Retired from public office, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Party | State | Date announced | |||
| Richard Burr | Republican | North Carolina | July 20, 2016[10] | |||
| Pat Toomey | Republican | Pennsylvania | Oct. 5, 2020[11] | |||
| Rob Portman | Republican | Ohio | Jan. 25, 2021[12] | |||
| Richard Shelby | Republican | Alabama | Feb. 8, 2021[13] | |||
| Roy Blunt | Republican | Missouri | March 8, 2021[14] | |||
| Patrick Leahy | Democratic | Vermont | November 15, 2021[15] | |||
Battlegrounds
- See also:U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2022
Battleground elections
The following map displays all states that held U.S. Senate elections in 2022 shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Battleground races are highlighted in brighter colors. Hover over a state for more information.
| Battleground U.S. Senate elections, 2022 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Open seat? | 2016 margin | 2020 presidential margin | |
| Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | No | R+15.2 | R+10.0 | |
| Arizona | Mark Kelly | No | D+2.4 | D+0.3 | |
| Florida | Marco Rubio | No | R+7.7 | R+3.3 | |
| Georgia | Raphael Warnock | No | D+2.1 | D+0.2 | |
| Missouri | Roy Blunt | Yes | R+2.8 | R+15.4 | |
| Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto | No | D+2.4 | D+2.4 | |
| New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan | No | D+0.1 | D+7.3 | |
| North Carolina | Richard Burr | Yes | R+5.7 | R+1.3 | |
| Ohio | Rob Portman | Yes | R+20.8 | R+8.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | Yes | R+1.5 | D+1.2 | |
| Utah | Mike Lee | No | R+41.0 | R+20.5 | |
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | No | R+3.4 | D+0.7 | |
Outside ratings
The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings fromThe Cook Political Report,Sabato's Crystal Ball, andInside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections.
Overviews
Alaska
Incumbent Sen.Lisa Murkowski (R) defeatedKelly Tshibaka (R), andPatricia Chesbro (D) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Alaska on November 8, 2022.
The three candidates advanced from thetop-four primary held on August 16, 2022, the first time Alaska used such a system in a Senate race since voters there approved it in 2020. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran in a single primary. Murkowski, Tshibaka, Chesbro, andBuzz Kelley (R) received the most votes and advanced to the general election, where the winner was decided usingranked-choice voting.
On September 12, 2022, Kelleywithdrew from the race and endorsed Tshibaka.[16] His name still appeared on the ballot.
Murkowski and Tshibaka led in media attention and together won more than 80% of the primary vote, with Murkowski receiving 45% and Tshibaka receiving 38.6%. In July 2022,FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Zoha Qamar wrote, "the ranked choice voting process seems likely to set up a contest between the two leading Republicans, [Murkowski and Tshibaka]".[17]
Murkowski first took office in 2002. Lisa Murkowski's father, Frank Murkowski (R), was a senator from 1981 to 2002, when he resigned to become governor of Alaska. After taking office, the elder Murkowski appointed his daughter to the U.S. Senate seat. After losing the Republican Senate primary in 2010, Lisa Murkowski successfully ran for re-election as a write-in candidate, becoming the second senator in U.S. history to do so. In 2016, Murkowskiwas re-elected after defeating second-place finisherJoe Miller (L) 44.4% to 29.2%.[18][19]
Murkowski highlighted her seniority and said her willingness to work with Democrats helped steer federal funding to Alaska. Murkowski said, "This race is about who can deliver best for Alaska. Through my seniority and ability to work across party lines, I’m getting real results for Alaska."[20] Murkowski also highlighted her support for energy development in the state and said her vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act had already brought billions to Alaska.[21]
Tshibaka, a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration, accused Murkowski of not using her seniority to block more of PresidentJoe Biden's (D) agenda. Tshibaka said, "Lisa Murkowski has enabled Biden’s agenda by casting the tie-breaking deciding vote to advance his anti-energy Interior Secretary nominee and confirming over 90% of his radical nominees."[22][23] Tshibaka also focused on economic issues and said she supports a Parental Bill of Rights that would give parents "a right to be fully informed and to approve of any sex education, gender identification, or race theory material being presented or discussed with their child."[23]
In February 2021, Murkowski voted to convict then-PresidentDonald Trump (R) after theU.S. Houseimpeached him over the events surrounding the January 6 breach of the Capitol.Cite error: Closing</ref> missing for<ref> tag In June 2021, Trump endorsed Tshibaka.[24] TheRepublican Party of Alaska also endorsed Tshibaka.[25]
U.S. Senate Minority LeaderMitch McConnell (R) and fellow Alaska U.S. Sen.Dan Sullivan (R) endorsed Murkowski. Murkowski also had the endorsements of several Democratic elected officials, including Alaska's At-Large U.S. Rep.Mary Peltola (D), Sen.Joe Manchin (D) and Sen.Kyrsten Sinema (D).Cite error: Closing</ref> missing for<ref> tagCite error: Closing</ref> missing for<ref> tag[26][27]
Ballotpedia tracked all noteworthy endorsements related to this race.[28] To view a full list of these endorsements, clickhere.
Chesbro, a retired educator, highlighted her support for renewable energy. In her responses toBallotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, Chesbro said, “We cannot turn off the spigot on fossil fuels. We can invest in our future through developing our renewable resources to create the energy on which we depend.” Chesbro also focused on her support for abortion rights.[29]
Arizona
IncumbentMark Kelly (D) defeatedBlake Masters (R) in the general election for one of Arizona'sU.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022.
Kelly won aNovember 2020 special election following the death of U.S. Sen.John McCain (R). Before joining Congress, Kelly served as a U.S. Navy pilot and a NASA astronaut. Kelly and his wife, former U.S. Rep.Gabrielle Giffords (D), founded Americans for Responsible Solutions (known at the time of the 2022 election as Giffords) in 2013. Kelly said he was "focused on representing Arizonans – all Arizonans – and I’ll keep working with Republicans and Democrats to support hardworking families and get our economy back on track."[30] Kelly's campaign website highlighted affordable health care, providing competitive educational opportunities, increasing wages to cover the cost of living, and funding federal benefits like Social Security and Medicare as policy goals in Washington.[31] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Kelly cumulatively raised $81.8 million and spent $75.9 million.
Masters, a venture capitalist, became president of theThiel Foundation in 2015 and served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022. Masters' campaign website said he ran "because the same old establishment politicians and the same old establishment candidates have failed us. [Masters] brings a wealth of experience to the table on how to defeat not just the progressive Democrats, but also the weak and compromised RINO Republicans." Masters' campaign website listed public safety as his top priority. He wrote, "I am so sick of this crime and chaos. It’s time to turn this ship around. We need to get control of our border. We need to punish criminals severely. And we need to project strength and competence abroad."[32] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Masters cumulatively raised $12.3 million and spent $9.7 million.
The previous two Senate elections—held in2018 and2020—were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen.Martha McSally (R) in a special election 51.2% to 48.8%.[33] In 2018,Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally 50.0% to 47.6%.
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close.Joe Biden (D) won the state of Arizona by 0.3 percentage points in the2020 presidential election.Donald Trump (R) won the state in the2016 presidential election by 3.6 percentage points.
Florida
IncumbentMarco Rubio (R) defeatedVal Demings (D) and seven other candidates in the general election forU.S. Senate in Florida on November 8, 2022.
The Hill's Caroline Vakil said, "Florida’s Senate race is considered one of the most competitive this November."[34]In2018, the last U.S. Senate race in the state before this one,Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Sen.Bill Nelson (D) by 0.2 percentage points. In2016, incumbentMarco Rubio won re-election by a margin of 7.7 percentage points.
Rubio was first elected to the Senate in 2010 to replace retiring incumbent Mel Martinez (R). In the general election, Rubio defeated Kendrick B. Meek (D) and Gov.Charlie Crist (I) with 49% of the vote. Rubio was a member of theFlorida House of Representatives from 2000 to 2008, serving as majority leader from 2003 to 2006 and House speaker from 2006 to 2008. Rubio emphasized his Senate career; according to his campaign website, "As a U.S. Senator, Marco has advanced commonsense, conservative ideas that address the issues Americans face."[35]
Demings was elected to the U.S. House in2016, representingFlorida's 10th Congressional District. Demings served on the Committee on Homeland Security and the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Before her time in office, Demings worked in law enforcement for nearly three decades. From 2007 to 2012, Demings was the chief of police inOrlando, Florida.[36] Demings said she was "running for U.S. Senate to fight for every Floridian to have that same opportunity to live the American Dream."[37]
Dennis Misigoy (L),Steven B. Grant,Tuan Nguyen,Uloma Ekpete,Edward A. Gray,Howard Knepper, andMoses Quiles also ran.
The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Florida were both decided by less than 4 percentage points. Incumbent PresidentDonald Trump (R) won the state overJoe Biden (D) by 3.3 percentage points in2020. Trump won the state overHillary Clinton (D) in2016 by 1.2 percentage points.
Georgia
IncumbentRaphael Warnock (D) andHerschel Walker (R) advanced to arunoff election on December 6, 2022. Warnock, Walker, andChase Oliver (L) ran to representGeorgia in theU.S. Senate.
In Georgia, a general election advances to a runoff between the two top finishers if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Since none of the candidates received this level of support on November 8 in the general election, a runoff was scheduled to take place on December 6. Warnock won his 2021 special runoff election by a margin of 2 percentage points.
After former U.S. Sen.Johnny Isakson (R) resigned for health reasons in 2019, Gov.Brian Kemp (R) appointedKelly Loeffler (R) to this seat until a special election could be held to replace Isakson. Since no candidate won a majority of the vote in thespecial election on November 3, 2020, Loeffler and Warnock advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021. Warnock defeated Loeffler in the runoff election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005.[38][39][40]
Warnock served as the senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. Warnock co-sponsored theWarnock-Cruz Amendment, which provided support for a bipartisan infrastructure project connecting Georgia and Texas. Warnock explained his decision to work with Sen.Ted Cruz (R-TX), saying, “There is a road that runs through our humanity…that is larger than politics, bigger than partisan bickering, certainly bigger than race…and my job as a legislator, and our job as citizens, is to find our way to that road that connects us to one another…so that every child can have access to a good, quality education, so that everybody can have affordable health care…Our job is to build out that road!”[41] As of November 2022, Warnock’s campaign hadraised more than $123 million.[42]
Walker was a Hall of Fame professional football player who attended the University of Georgia, represented the U.S. in the 1992 Olympics, and owned two food-supply businesses. Former PresidentDonald Trump (R) appointed Walker to the Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition in 2018. Walker said he also ran to save "our country and the great state of Georgia from President Biden’s disastrous agenda which has led to higher prices, out-of-control crime, dangerous open borders, and ‘America Last’ foreign policy. Weak leaders create bad results — and we are sick and tired of politicians not being held accountable for their actions."[43] As of November 2022, Walker’s campaign hadraised nearly $38 million.[44][45]
Missouri
Eric Schmitt (R) defeatedTrudy Busch Valentine (D),Paul Venable (Constitution Party), andJonathan Dine (L) in the general election for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. Sen.Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[46]
Busch Valentine, the heiress of the Anheuser-Busch beer company, worked as a nurse.[47] Busch Valentine said she wanted to fight the opioid epidemic, improve access to quality healthcare, and advocate for women's rights.[48] She also criticized the state of politics in Missouri and called it divisive. "Our communities are strong, but our politics are broken. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said.[49] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Busch Valentine cumulatively raised $12.0 million and spent $11.7 million.
Schmitt was appointedattorney general of Missouri in January 2019. He wastreasurer of Missouri from 2017 to 2019, and a member of theMissouri State Senate from 2008 to 2016. Schmitt ran on his record as attorney general and the lawsuits he filed against the federal government. Schmitt said, "[I have] taken a blow torch to Biden’s unconstitutional and unlawful policies to protect the America First Agenda." He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country."[50] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Schmitt cumulatively raised $5.7 million and spent $5.5 million.
At the time of the election,three independent election forecasters rated the general election asSolid Republican orSafe Republican.Donald Trump (R) won the state in the2020 presidential election by a 15.4% margin. At the time of the 2022 election, the last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide election in Missouri was in 2012, when U.S. Sen.Claire McCaskill and Gov.Jay Nixon (D) both won re-election. Missouri's other U.S. senator,Josh Hawley (R), won the2018 election by a 5.8% margin.
Nevada
Incumbent U.S. Sen.Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated former state Attorney GeneralAdam Laxalt (R) and three others in the general election forU.S. Senate in Nevada on November 8, 2022.
Time's Philip Elliott wrote, "The match-up [between Cortez Masto and] Republican Adam Laxalt is seen as a two-point race at best—and one that could decide if the Democrats hold their narrow majority in the Senate."[51]
Sen.Harry Reid (D) held the seat from 1987 to 2017. Statewide elections in Nevada in 2016 and 2018 were decided by five percentage points or fewer.
In theNevada 2018 U.S. senate race,Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Sen.Dean Heller (R) by five percentage points. In 2016, Cortez Mastodefeated then-incumbentJoe Heck (R) by 2.4 percentage points. The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Nevada were similarly close.Joe Biden (D) won the state of Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 2.4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor said demographic shifts were one reason for the state's competitiveness. "Nevada is a uniquely transient state: half of those on the state's voter rolls have registered since 2016, when Cortez Masto was first elected," Taylor said. "Unaffiliated voters became the largest bloc in the state last fall," Taylor also said.[52]
Time's Elliott said the state's Latino population would play an important role in the election's outcome. "Strategists anticipate about 15% to 20% of the electorate to identify as Hispanic or Latino—and could be even bigger as both sides are working to register new voters," Elliot said.[51]
Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, took office in 2017 after defeating Heck (R) 47.1% to 44.7%. Before taking office, Cortez Masto served asNevada’s attorney general from 2007 to 2015.[53]
Laxalt succeeded Cortez Masto as state attorney general, serving from 2015 to 2019. Laxalt was theRepublican gubernatorial nominee in 2018.Steve Sisolak (D) defeated Laxalt 49.4% to 45.3% in the general election. Laxalt is the grandson of former Nevada governor and U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt (R), and is the son of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.).[54][55]
Cortez Masto focused on her support for abortion rights and criticized Laxalt for past comments he made about the 1973Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision.[56] Cortez Masto also said that if Laxalt was elected, Senate Republicans would seek to implement a national ban on abortion. "If Mitch McConnell retakes the Senate, he won’t hesitate to bring a national abortion ban bill to a vote," Cortez Masto said.[57] Cortez Masto also highlighted her vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 (IRA), a measure she said would reduce healthcare costs for Nevadans.[58][59]
Laxalt focused on economic issues and said Cortez Masto's support for President Biden's economic initiatives contributed to the rise in inflation.[60] Laxalt said that, as senator, he would "work quickly to restore fiscal sanity by stopping the spending spree that has led to record-breaking inflation."[61] Laxalt also focused on immigration. Laxalt said he supported finishing the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and said "there [was] nothing humane about an open border policy that encourages caravans of desperate people to risk their lives only to encounter overwhelmed border facilities."[62]
Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates includedBarry Rubinson (Independent American Party),Neil Scott (Libertarian), andBarry Lindemann (Independent).
New Hampshire
IncumbentMaggie Hassan (D) defeatedDon Bolduc (R) andJeremy Kauffman (L) in the general election forU.S. Senate in New Hampshire on November 8, 2022.
Hassan took office in 2017. Hassan said she worked with Republicans to end surprise medical billing and expand broadband access. She emphasized her support for a gas tax holiday through 2022 and said she worked to lower costs for residents. Hassan said Bolduc "[was] running on an extreme, anti-choice agenda and would be a clear yes vote to ban abortion in all fifty states."[63][64]
Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, said the election "[was] about the economy, fiscal responsibility and the safety and security of this nation." He attributed inflation and high gas prices to Hassan and other Democrats. Bolduc's campaign ads emphasized his military background and called Hassan a career politician. Bolduc said he'd support allowing states to set abortion policy.[65]
For more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages,see below.
As of October 19, 2022, Hassan spent $36.7 million. Bolduc spent $1.9 million.[66] In 2020, Sen.Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) spent $19 million on her re-election bid, and challengerBryant Messner (R) spent $7 million.[67] In Hassan's first Senate bid in 2016, she spent $19 million to incumbent Sen.Kelly Ayotte's (R) $16 million.[68]
In the state's2020 Senate election, Shaheen defeated Messner by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In2016, Hassan defeated Ayotte by 0.1 percentage points.
PresidentJoe Biden (D) won New Hampshire by 7.3 percentage points in2020.Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the2016 presidential election by 0.3 percentage points.
North Carolina
U.S. Rep.Ted Budd (R) defeated former state supreme court justiceCheri Beasley (D) and seven other candidates in the general election forU.S. Senate in North Carolina on November 8, 2022.
Budd was first elected toNorth Carolina's 13th Congressional District in 2016 and was re-elected in 2018 and 2020. Prior to serving in the U.S. House, Budd worked as an investment analyst and owner of a gun range and store.[69] Budd said he was running because he was "gravely concerned about our country’s future, because North Carolina families, our values, and our jobs are under attack every day in Washington."[70]
Beasley served as a North Carolina district court justice from 1999 to 2008 and as a judge on theNorth Carolina Court of Appeals from 2008 to 2012. Gov. Bev Perdue (D) appointed Beasley to theNorth Carolina Supreme Court in 2012, where she was chief justice from 2019 to 2020. Beasley also worked as an assistant public defender and a partner at McGuireWoods LLP.[71][72] Beasley said she was running to "fight to lower costs, create good-paying jobs and expand access to affordable, quality health care in every part of North Carolina."[73]
Incumbent Sen.Richard Burr (R)—who first took office in 2005—did not seek re-election, which made this an open seat race. In2020, incumbent Sen.Thom Tillis (R) defeatedCal Cunningham (D), 49% to 47%. In2016, Burr defeatedDeborah Ross (D), 51% to 45%.
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in North Carolina were both decided by less than 4 percentage points. In the2020 election, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump (R) won the state over PresidentJoe Biden (D), 49.9% to 48.6%. In the2016 election, Trump carried North Carolina with 49.8% of the vote toHillary Clinton's (D) 46.2%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle,Inside Elections rated this stateBattleground Republican.[74]
Ohio
J.D. Vance (R) defeatedTim Ryan (D) in the November 8 general election forU.S. Senate in Ohio. IncumbentRob Portman (R), who was first elected in 2010, didnot run for re-election.[75]
Ryan was elected to the U.S. House in 2002. He was re-elected to representDistrict 13 in 2020 following anunsuccessful presidential campaign. Ryan campaigned on a range of economic issues, including revitalizing the state's manufacturing industry, a federal $15 minimum wage, the PRO Act, renegotiating existing foreign trade deals, and expanding affordable healthcare.[76] According to theDayton Daily News, Ryan's campaign focused on blue-collar workers and issues.[77] Ryan said, "You know, I think the last thing that the United States Senate needs is another millionaire who got funded by a billionaire to the tune of $15 million or who comes out of Silicon Valley."[78]Sherrod Brown (D), Ohio's other U.S. senator, endorsed Ryan.[79]
Vance served in the U.S. Marine Corps from 2003 to 2007, before working in venture capital in San Francisco. In 2016, he wroteHillbilly Elegy, a memoir about growing up in Middletown, Ohio. Vance campaigned on bringing manufacturing back to Ohio, fixing the country's immigration system and completing the wall along the southern border, and breaking up large technology companies.[80] Vance said, "We really need people who are solving the big problems. We’ve had way too much time of politicians trying to tinker around the edges just trying to fix the superficial."[78] Former President Donald Trump (R)endorsed Vance.[81]
Donald Trump won Ohio by eight percentage points in2016 and2020. Portman won re-election in2016 by 19 percentage points.Sherrod Brown (D), Ohio's other U.S. Senator at the time of the election, last won re-election in 2018 by seven percentage points.
Pennsylvania
John Fetterman (D) defeatedMehmet Oz (R) and six other candidates in Pennsylvania’sU.S. Senate election on November 8, 2022. Incumbent SenatorPat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election.
Fetterman served as Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor. In2018, he was elected 58% to 41% on a joint ticket with incumbent GovernorTom Wolf (D). In a campaign ad, Fetterman said, "Our economy is a mess because of Washington, [and] the rich, powerful, the insiders, and the lobbyists. [...] We must make more stuff in America, cut taxes for working families, [and] Congress shouldn't play in the stock market."[82] To read more about Fetterman's key messages,click here.
This race was Oz’s first run for political office. Oz was a retired surgeon and hostedThe Dr. Oz Show on daytime television from 2009 to 2022.[83] In a campaign ad, Oz said, "We're facing rising crime, crushing inflation, lives unraveling. [...] I'll heal us, and bring change to our divided nation. Doctors fix big things. I fixed hearts and fought for every last one of them."[84] To read more about Oz's key messages,click here.
CBS News' Sarah Ewall-Wice wrote, "The Senate race in Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for both parties fighting over who will control the Senate after the November elections. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring."[85]Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski wrote, "Keeping the seat in Republican hands is an important part of the party's effort to flip control of the 50-50 Senate."[86]
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso wrote about the candidates' campaigns, saying, "Fetterman’s campaign holds large, energetic rallies, [while] Oz stages smaller community-based events." Terruso also wrote, "Both candidates have slammed the other’s events as evidence of the other’s weaknesses. Fetterman’s campaign tweets out crowd photos, claiming Oz can’t fill big rooms. Oz’s campaign points to Fetterman’s 10-minute speeches and refusal to take reporter or audience questions afterward in an attempt to cast doubt on Fetterman’s health."[87] Fetterman had a stroke on May 15, 2022.
InPennsylvania's 2018 senate race, incumbentBob Casey Jr. (D) defeatedLou Barletta (R) 56% to 43%. In2016, Toomey won re-election againstKatie McGinty (D) 49% to 47%. The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Pennsylvania were decided by less than 2 percentage points. Pennsylvania was one of two states in 2022, along withWisconsin, where Republicans defended a seat in a state thatJoe Biden (D) won in2020.
Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates includedRonald Johnson (Constitution Party),Richard Weiss (G),Daniel Wassmer (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania),Erik Gerhardt (L), andQuincy Magee (Independent).Everett Stern (Independent) withdrew from the race on October 25 andendorsed Fetterman.
Wisconsin
Incumbent U.S. Sen.Ron Johnson (R) defeated Lieutenant GovernorMandela Barnes (D) and write-in candidateScott Aubart (American Independent Party) in the general election on November 8, 2022, to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate.
Johnson was first elected in 2010, defeating then-incumbent Sen.Russ Feingold (D), 52% to 47%. Johnson won re-election in2016 in a rematch with Feingold, 50% to 47%. In2018, incumbent Sen.Tammy Baldwin (D) defeatedLeah Vukmir (R), 55% to 45%. Before his election to the Senate, Johnson worked as the chief executive officer for a specialty plastics company and as an accountant at Jostens.[88] Johnson said that his campaign was "focused on growing our economy and creating good jobs and economic opportunity for all."[89]
Barnes served in the Wisconsin State Assembly from 2013 to 2017 and was elected lieutenant governor in 2018. Before his time in the legislature, Barnes worked for the city of Milwaukee and as a community organizer for the Milwaukee Inner-City Congregations Allied for Hope.[90][91] Barnes said he would "fight to create opportunity in every corner of Wisconsin, bring manufacturing back, create jobs by tackling climate change, and stand up for Wisconsin’s family farmers."[90]
Wisconsin was one of two states that held aU.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that PresidentJoe Biden carried in the2020 presidential election. Wisconsin was also one of six states with one Democratic and one Republican U.S. senator as of the2022 U.S. Senate elections.[92]
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Wisconsin were both decided by less than one percentage point. In the2020 election, PresidentJoe Biden (D) won the state over then-incumbent PresidentDonald Trump (R), 49.5% to 48.8%. In the2016 election, Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.2% of the vote toHillary Clinton's (D) 46.5%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle,Inside Elections rated this stateBattleground Republican.[74]
Candidate lists by state
The following table provides an overview of the incumbent and candidates in 2022 Senate races. Candidate lists may be incomplete until each state's filing deadline has passed.
| 2022 Senate elections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Candidate list | ||
| Alabama | Richard Shelby | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Arizona | Mark Kelly | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Arkansas | John Boozman | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| California | Alex Padilla[93] | DemocraticRepublican | ||
| Colorado | Michael Bennet | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Connecticut | Richard Blumenthal | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Florida | Marco Rubio | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Georgia | Raphael Warnock | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Hawaii | Brian Schatz | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Idaho | Mike Crapo | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Illinois | Tammy Duckworth | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Indiana | Todd Young | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Iowa | Chuck Grassley | DemocraticRepublican | ||
| Kansas | Jerry Moran | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Kentucky | Rand Paul | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| Louisiana | John Neely Kennedy | No candidates | ||
| Maryland | Chris Van Hollen | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| Missouri | Roy Blunt | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| New York | Charles Schumer | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| North Carolina | Richard Burr | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| North Dakota | John Hoeven | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| Ohio | Rob Portman | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| Oklahoma | James Lankford | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Oregon | Ron Wyden | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| South Carolina | Tim Scott | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| South Dakota | John Thune | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
| Utah | Mike Lee | RepublicanIndependentOther | ||
| Vermont | Patrick Leahy | DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
| Washington | Patty Murray | DemocraticRepublican | ||
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Political context
Seats that changed party hands in previous election cycles
Four of the 34 seats up for election in 2022 changed party control the last time they were up for election.
2020-2021 special elections
In 2020-2021, special elections took place in Georgia and Arizona. Democrats picked up both seats. The seats were up for election in 2022.
| Senate seats that changed party hands, 2020-2021 special elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election incumbent | 2020-2021 winner | Margin of victory (% points) | |||
| Arizona | Martha McSally | Mark Kelly | 2.4 | |||
| Georgia | Kelly Loeffler | Raphael Warnock | 2.1 | |||
2016
- See also:United States Senate elections, 2016
In 2016—the last time these 34 seats were up for regular election—two seats changed party hands. Democrats picked up both seats.
| Senate seats that changed party hands, 2016 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election incumbent | 2016 winner | Margin of victory (% points) | |||
| Illinois | Mark Kirk | Tammy Duckworth | 15.1 | |||
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte | Maggie Hassan | 0.1 | |||
Presidential election results in 2022 Senate states
- Republicans were defending two Senate seats in statesJoe Biden (D) won in the2020 presidential election:
- Pennsylvania: Biden defeatedDonald Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8%. IncumbentPat Toomey did not seek re-election.
- Wisconsin: Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%. IncumbentRon Johnson sought re-election.
- Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020.
- In the2020 Senate elections, Democrats and Republicans each defended two seats won by the other party's presidential candidate in 2016.Click here for more information.
The following table shows the 2020 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2022. Click [show] on the right to expand the table.
See also:
- Presidential election, 2020
- States won by Donald Trump in 2020 with Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022
- States won by Joe Biden in 2020 with Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022
Senator's party vs. governor's party
In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat going into the election was held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors were up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors were up.
| Senator's vs. Governor's party, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-election Senate incumbent | Last election MoV[95] | Pre-election Governor | Last election MoV[95] | ||
| Arizona | Mark Kelly | 2.4 | Doug Ducey | 14.2 | ||
| Georgia | Raphael Warnock | 2.1 | Brian Kemp | 1.4 | ||
| Kansas | Jerry Moran | 30.0 | Laura Kelly | 5.0 | ||
| Kentucky | Rand Paul | 14.6 | Andy Beshear | 0.4 | ||
| Louisiana | John Neely Kennedy | 21.4 | John Bel Edwards | 2.6 | ||
| Maryland | Chris Van Hollen | 25.2 | Larry Hogan | 11.9 | ||
| New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan | 0.1 | Chris Sununu | 31.7 | ||
| North Carolina | Richard Burr | 5.7 | Roy Cooper | 4.5 | ||
| Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | 1.5 | Tom Wolf | 17.1 | ||
| Vermont | Patrick Leahy | 28.3 | Phil Scott | 41.1 | ||
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | 3.4 | Tony Evers | 1.1 | ||
States with senators from different parties
Seven states had senators from different parties in the 117th Congress: Maine, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Four of those seven states had Senate seats up for election in 2022. Vermont had one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucused with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election had senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
| States with split Senate delegations | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pre-2022 election incumbent | Other incumbent | ||||
| Ohio | Rob Portman | Sherrod Brown | ||||
| Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | Bob Casey Jr. | ||||
| Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | Tammy Baldwin | ||||
The 117th Congress had the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota: "Prior to the 117th, only one congress has convened with fewer than 10 split-delegation states [since the start of the direct election era] – the 84th Congress following the Election of 1954. That cycle produced nine states with one Democratic and Republican U.S. Senator."[96]
2021 impeachment votes
On February 13, 2021, former PresidentDonald Trump (R) was acquitted of incitement of insurrection. Fifty-seven senators voted to convict and 43 voted to acquit. Conviction requires a two-thirds vote of senators present.[97]
Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three held seats up for elections in 2022:
Richard Burr, N.C.Lisa Murkowski, AlaskaPat Toomey, Penn.
Burr and Toomey did not seek re-election.
2020 election party changes
In the2020 Senate election cycle, Democrats flipped four seats and Republicans flipped one:
- Tommy Tuberville (R) defeated incumbentDoug Jones (D) inAlabama.
- Mark Kelly (D) defeated incumbentMartha McSally (R) inArizona's special election.
- John Hickenlooper (D) defeated incumbentCory Gardner (R) inColorado.
- Raphael Warnock (D) defeatedKelly Loeffler (R) inGeorgia's special election.
- Jon Ossoff (D) defeatedDavid Perdue (R) inGeorgia.
Media analysis of 2022 U.S. Senate elections
This section includes commentary on the 2022 U.S. Senate elections both before and after November 8.
Post-election
Effect of Biden's approval ratings
| “ | These results are unusual for a midterm election: Coming into the 2022 election, the president’s party had lost Senate seats in 13 of the last 19 midterm elections, with an average loss of roughly five seats. But Democrats will suffer no net losses in the Senate, and after picking up an open seat in Pennsylvania previously held by a Republican, could achieve a net gain of one seat if Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock defeats Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff. Democrats managed this despite President Biden’s mediocre approval rating and the tendency for voters to sour on the president’s party in midterms. And while Democrats are headed for some losses in the House, they may lose an unusually small number of seats there, too.[98] | ” |
| —Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight (November 12, 2022)[99] | ||
| “ | In an unusual midterm twist, those who "somewhat disapproved" of President Biden nonetheless mostly broke in favor his party. In six of seven key Senate races, the Democratic nominee won over those who somewhat disapproved of Biden. There was no more eye-popping spread than in New Hampshire, though. While Biden’s low numbers in the state (and even some softness with Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s approval) gave Republicans late hope they could stun with a victory, these “somewhat disapprovers” broke for Hassan over weak, MAGA candidate Don Bolduc by an astonishing 47 points. ... In the end, Biden’s approval in exit polling among voters who turned out to be higher than polling predicted, and every Democratic candidate ran ahead of him. But that edge was much more pronounced among incumbent Democrats. Hassan had the largest margin, outpacing Biden’s approval by 12 points, the only double digit lead. In Georgia, Warnock was next, running ahead by 8.4 points—but a warning sign for him in the runoff is that Biden’s approval was its lowest at 41 percent across the competitive states. He’ll need to come close to those numbers again, though it’s still a question of GOP turnout given Walker’s severe underperformance versus Kemp. In Arizona, Kelly ran ahead of Biden by 8 points. The smallest incumbent margin was Cortez Masto, though Biden’s 45% approval was the highest for any incumbent on the defense. While in the GOP-held open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, Beasley and Ryan, respectively, outran Biden, they couldn’t match the larger numbers the incumbents had that they needed, with 4 and 6 points being insufficient in the red-leaning states. Biden’s best numbers came in exit polling in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the president's approval was at 46% in each. While the five points Fetterman ran ahead by was sufficient to lift him to a victory and to flip a seat, the 3.5 points that Barnes ran ahead of Biden – the lowest of any candidate in a competitive race – wasn’t enough.[98] | ” |
| —Jessica Taylor and Matthew Klein, The Political Report (November 22, 2022)[100] | ||
| “ | Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the party in power was coming up short. Just 17 percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country, 68 percent of voters said the condition of the nation’s economy was either “not so good” or “poor,” and a majority of Americans disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance. ... Voters were primed for change but chose the status quo instead. They didn’t punish Democrats for Biden’s job performance and were uncomfortable putting the GOP in control. Overall Democratic performance in the face of Biden’s standing and midterm history is remarkable. ... The final Inside Elections’ projection in the Senate was anything from a Democratic gain of one seat to a Republican gain of two seats. The final outcome — either no net change or a Democratic gain of a seat — will be within that range, pending the outcome of the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia. And the final Senate result will be within a seat or two of our earliest Senate projection. The Senate map was relatively favorable for Democrats, considering Biden won six of the eight initial battleground states. But Democrats remained in a precarious position as the president’s approval ratings in these states remained underwater throughout most of the cycle. In the end, the 2020 Biden coalition not only held in enough key places, but some Democrats, including John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, overperformed Biden.[98] | ” |
| —Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales, Inside Elections (November 28, 2022)[101] | ||
Independents
| “ | It really does come down to the swing voters. In almost every single Senate race with an incumbent, Independents backed the eventual winner—some by a significant margin. In the first round in Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won independents by 11 points over Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who will need to narrow that margin to prevail in the runoff. The largest margin came in Pennsylvania, which (so far) has been the only Senate seat to change hands. Democrat John Fetterman won independents by a whopping 18-point margin over Republican Mehmet Oz, who was consistently unpopular with voters. The next biggest gap came in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly defeated GOP challenger Blake Masters by 16 points with the crucial voting bloc. A three-point edge in Nevada helped Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, long thought to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, defeat her rival Adam Laxalt. Independents narrowly broke for Democrats as well in GOP-held competitive open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, by six and three points, respectively. However, in those red-tinged states, it wasn’t enough to hoist Democrats to the upset. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson was the only Republican in a race we rated as competitive who won independent voters, besting Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by a three-point margin.[98] | ” |
| —Jessica Taylor and Matthew Klein, The Political Report (November 22, 2022)[102] | ||
| “ | Democrats would not have had such a good election night without the support of independent voters. ... Despite plenty of polling this year showing that independents were, like Republicans, primarily concerned with the state of the economy and inflation, they ended up making nuanced decisions in key statewide races — and that worked to benefit Democrats. ... State by state, those numbers come through in news networks’ exit polling (which provides an incomplete but early look at how an electorate behaved during an election) and other post-election surveys. In Arizona, for example, Sen. Mark Kelly’s win over Blake Masters in the state’s US Senate contest was boosted by the support of 55 percent of independents — who made up the largest share of the electorate (about 40 percent). The Associated Press’s midterm survey also found that independents broke in favor of Democrats by nearly 20 points. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won 53 percent of independents according to exit polls, though they made up a smaller share (24 percent) of that electorate. That contest is headed to a December runoff. Sen. Maggie Hassan, the Democrat who won reelection in New Hampshire, meanwhile, won a similar share of independents: 54 percent of the group that made up a plurality of voters. And John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, who won his race by a 5 percent vote margin, garnered the support of 58 percent of independents. ... In data provided to Vox from Navigator’s midterm voters survey, those numbers show that for independent men, inflation was a top concern for half of them, while abortion was the top concern for 23 percent. Among women, inflation was the top concern for 46 percent of respondents, while abortion was close behind at 34 percent. Though the numbers differ slightly between Navigator’s finding and exit polls, the same 17-percent gender gap shows up: Independent men supported Republicans slightly more than Democrats, but independent women backed Democrats by a much bigger margin.In Nevada’s Senate race, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was able to win the support of 48 percent of independents, compared to the 45 percent of independents who supported Republican Adam Laxalt, exit polls show. That included strong independent support in the swing Washoe County, which Cortez Masto won in this contest (she lost it during her first election in 2016). The AP VoteCast survey shows a nearly 10 percent gap in favor of Democrats.[98] | ” |
| —Christian Paz, Vox (November 26, 2022)[103] | ||
Candidate quality
| “ | This year, Republicans nominated a series of inexperienced Senate candidates, and such candidates tend to underperform statewide benchmarks. And although the incumbency advantage is smaller than it once was, some of the strongest-performing candidates, such as Rubio and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, were incumbents. And candidate quality almost certainly matters less than it once did, given the high partisanship of the modern political era. We’ve even made some changes to our forecast model to reflect this. Still, another feature of modern American politics is exceptionally close races. So a candidate who underperforms by even 2 or 3 percentage points — let alone 5, 10 or more points — will often cost their party the election. Sometimes, quality has a big effect on quantity.[98] | ” |
| —Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (November 9, 2022)[104] | ||
| “ | [...] Plenty of independent voters felt off put by Trump-aligned Republican candidates. Some disliked GOP candidates’ positions on abortion; others were repelled by other social and economic stances. ... Election denying candidates, and candidates aligned with Donald Trump, might have actually turned independents off from other Republican candidates on the ticket. In Pennsylvania, for example, Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the gubernatorial race by winning independents (by 29 points) and political moderates (by 40 points) by historic margins against the far-right, election-denying, Christian fundamentalist Republican Doug Mastriano. Mehmet Oz, the more moderate Republican candidate for US Senate, was dragged down both by Mastriano and his own poorly run campaign, losing independents by 20 points and moderates by 30 points. Those varying levels of support also suggest a degree of split-ticket voting, which meant that independent and Republican voters were even more selective in the Republican candidates they did end up supporting. In that way, poor Republican candidate quality hurt other Republicans, especially with independents and moderates, as my colleague Andrew Prokop has reported.[98] | ” |
| —Christian Paz, Vox (November 26, 2022)[105] | ||
| “ | [Trump's] preferred candidates underperformed last week, helping Democrats hold the Senate and helping keep the race for House control close. (Republicans, who had been heavy favorites, are expected to prevail narrowly as mail ballots continue to be counted in California.) Overall, his preferred primary candidates underperformed other G.O.P. candidates by about five percentage points. ... A penalty of five points is a big number in today’s polarized era. Five of the last six presidential elections have been decided by a margin less than that. As findings like these are revealed, they may add to the consternation of some Republicans who in recent days have blamed Mr. Trump for the party’s poor performance. ... On paper, Republican Senate candidates ought to have been fairly competitive in Arizona and Pennsylvania. What did Blake Masters and Dr. Mehmet Oz lose by instead? Four to five points. In Georgia, the Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed Gov. Brian Kemp by eight points. Not all eight of those points can necessarily be attributed to the MAGA penalty. Mr. Kemp was an incumbent; Mr. Walker was a challenger. Still, it’s a weak performance by a candidate endorsed by Mr. Trump. With the results in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania all within the margin of one MAGA penalty, it’s entirely plausible that Mr. Trump’s candidates cost the Republicans control of the Senate.[98] | ” |
| —Nate Cohn, The New York Times (November 16, 2022)[106] | ||
Pre-election
- Click here to view pre-election analysis and commentary
Candidate quality
“ Two prominent election forecasting models now give Democrats a 70% or better chance of retaining their Senate majority in November, a major shift that suggests the fight for control may no longer be the toss-up that it has long been considered.
TheFiveThirtyEight election model finds that in 70 out of 100 election simulations, Democrats emerge from 2022 in the majority.The Economist's model is even more optimistic for the party, finding that in 78 out of 100 simulations, Democrats retain their majority in November.
Both models take into account polling, demographic, fundraising and historical data to produce a prediction of what will happen in two months' time. It's worth noting that these forecasts are built on probable outcomes and their predictive power depends on how good the underlying data are. ... In short, be wary of taking these models as fact.
In explaining why Democrats' chances have improved of late, both FiveThirtyEight and The Economist note the disparity in candidate quality between the Democrats and Republicans as playing a significant role in the broader fight for the majority.[98]
” —Chris Cillizza, CNN (September 8, 2022)[107] “ The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play.
The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies.[98]
” —Alan I. Abramowitz,Sabato's Crystal Ball (June 1, 2022)[108] “ Prospects for Republican gains in the 50-50 Senate are not so good. Only nine seats are really seen as 'in play.' Republicans are retiring in Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Sen. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in 2016 that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise. (Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska upsets the right wing but is a reliable vote to organize the Senate, and the GOP will support her.) So five Republican seats are at risk. Only four Democratic seats are considered competitive: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Recruitment of stellar candidates with compelling biographies is crucial to success in states where the Republicans are vulnerable, which is why so much attention will focus on the Republican primaries, especially in Missouri and Ohio.[98]
” —Hugh Hewitt,The Washington Post (March 28, 2021)[109] Presidential approval ratings
“ All of the Senate contests both sides consider the most competitive will be in states that Joe Biden won in 2020, albeit in most cases narrowly.
That geography could provide a critical boost for beleaguered Democrats in an era when both parties are finding it more difficult to win Senate races in states that usually vote the other way for president. That dynamic has grown so powerful that each party now holds just three of the 50 Senate seats in the 25 states that voted against their presidential candidates in the 2020 election.
None of the three Democratic senators in states that then-President Donald Trump won in 2020 is on the ballot this fall, which leaves the battlefield centered overwhelmingly on terrain Biden captured. But Biden's eroding job approval numbers could undermine that potential geographic advantage. Each side has won very few 21st-century Senate races, either with incumbents or for open seats, in states where the approval rating is lagging for a president of its party.
Now Republicans are confident that Biden's sagging approval ratings in the key states will create a comparable undertow on Democrats.
"I think Biden's numbers will very much drive the 2022 elections," says Republican consultant John Brabender.
A pivotal question for Democrats is whether Biden has a better chance of recovering at least somewhat by November in the states that he won -- and where more voters therefore have some history of viewing him favorably. Or, failing that, whether in these states that rejected Trump in 2020 (and in some cases 2016 as well), Democratic Senate candidates can survive even lackluster numbers for Biden by reminding voters what they don't like about the GOP alternatives.
"It's not just a referendum on Biden," insists Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for the President during the campaign. "In Senate races you have the resources to make it a real choice; it doesn't have to be a derivative choice of an affirmation of the president or not."
Unless Biden can get a second wind before November, especially in states that he won, the Democrats' chances of holding the Senate will turn on whether she's right.[98]
” —Ronald Brownstein,CNN (March 15, 2022)[110] Historical midterm elections
“ House elections are simply more susceptible to the national electoral environment than Senate elections. This is, in part, because all 435 seats are up in each House election, whereas only about one-third of Senate seats (and roughly two-thirds of states) are up. As such, the partisan makeup of those Senate seats can more strongly influence the electoral chances of the two parties. Moreover, Senate elections are statewide contests where incumbents have sometimes had a larger edge than their House counterparts, in part because a distinct personal brand can still somewhat override trends running against the incumbent’s party.
In fact, the House and Senate have moved in opposite directions three times over the past 75 years, most recently in 2018. Why the asymmetry? In many cases, the president’s party flipped seats in states the president had carried handily two years earlier. Take the 2018 midterms: Democrats had to defend 24 of the 35 seats up in 2018 (26 if you count two independents who caucused with the party), and 10 of those were in states that Trump carried in the 2016 election. In the end, the GOP won four of those 10 seats — three of which were in deeply red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota (the other was traditionally swingy Florida) — while still losing swing-state seats in Arizona and Nevada.
Looking ahead to 2022, it’s less likely we’ll see the Senate and House move in different directions, as Republicans have only two Biden-won Senate seats to defend, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are states Biden won by less than 2 points, meaning Democrats have little in the way of easy pickings. By contrast, the GOP will likely have more opportunities for pickups, as they can expect to challenge Democratic-held Senate seats in battleground states, such as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, each of which Biden won by fewer than 3 points.[98]
” —Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich,FiveThirtyEight (January 3, 2022)[111] “ Whatever else is going on, midterm elections most notably operate as referenda on the president of the United States. If the chief magistrate is unpopular, the party controlling the White House always loses ground, sometimes dramatically. In final pre-election polls in 1994, Bill Clinton’s average job-approval rating was 47 percent (according to FiveThirtyEight). In 2010 Obama was at 45 percent; and in 2018 Trump was at 42 percent. Meanwhile, in the two outlier midterms, Clinton’s average job-approval rating was 65 percent in 1998, while George W. Bush’s was 62 percent in 2002.
While no one knows now what Biden’s numbers will be like in November of 2022, his average job-approval ratings have been uniquely steady over the first six months of his presidency, oscillating only four points in either direction since he took office (from 51 percent to 55 percent). Since Trump’s approval ratings were nearly as stable (though at a lower level), we may have entered an era in which polarization and the decline of swing voters means closer and more predictable elections. That, too, would reduce the odds of 2022 Republican tsunami.[98]
” —Ed Kilgore,New York Magazine (July 27, 2021)[112] “ History is, of course, a guide that presidents typically lose seats in their first midterm elections, at least in the House, but also often in the Senate. Among Democrats, you have to go back to Kennedy to find a Democrat who actually gained Senate seats in his first midterm. But even if Democrats lose seats, it seems unlikely it would be anywhere near the number that Obama (6 seats) or Clinton (8 seats) saw in their first midterm election.
Ultimately, we see these Senate races track closely with the presidential results in the state. So based solely on that, Democrats would be winning back seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but when it's not a presidential cycle, that's not always the case either.[98]
” —Jessica Taylor,The Cook Political Report (January 22, 2021)[113] Effect of Republican retirements
“ Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So there’s a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.
That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. What’s more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio — and that was a popular incumbent (Sen. Sherrod Brown) running in a blue-wave election year (2018).[98]
” —Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley,FiveThirtyEight (January 25, 2021)[114] Trump's influence
“ If Senate Republicans seem conservative now, just wait until next year. The 2022 midterms could usher in a wave of full-spectrum MAGA supporters who would turn the GOP conference an even deeper shade of red — and make the Senate a lot more like the fractious House.
In the five states where Republican senators are retiring, the primary election fields to succeed them are crowded with Donald Trump supporters who have made loyalty to the former president a cornerstone of their campaigns.
The three top candidates to succeed Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina have all denounced his vote to convict Trump in his last impeachment trial. In Pennsylvania, the four leading candidates to succeed Sen. Pat Toomey — who, like Burr, was formally rebuked by the state party for his impeachment vote — have embraced Trump’s calls for an “audit” of the state’s presidential election results, to varying degrees.
The absolute fealty to Trump is only part of the change this class of candidates would herald. There are institutional implications for the Senate as well. The bipartisan infrastructure deal Ohio’s Sen. Rob Portman helped broker? Six of the top GOP candidates vying to replace him have rejected it.[98]
” —Marc Caputo,Politico (August 31, 2021)[115] “ Midterms are generally challenging for the president’s party because they are a referendum on the party in power. But it remains to be seen what impact Trump has, even though he’s out of office. He could be the GOP’s hero who turns out the full Trump coalition and expands a populist party that is reaching out to minority voters. Or he could become the Republicans’ monkey wrench in the gears of a party trying to move on from Trump if his meddling in GOP primaries produces toxic nominees who turn off independent voters and keep the Democratic base unified and energized.[98]
” —Nathan Gonzales,Roll Call (April 1, 2021)[116]
Primary elections
Battleground primaries
Democratic Party battleground primaries
There were4 U.S. Senate Democratic battleground primaries in 2022.
- United States Senate election in Iowa, 2022 (June 7 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Ohio, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2022 (August 9 Democratic primary)
The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Republican Party battleground primaries
There were11 U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2022.
- United States Senate election in Alabama, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff)
- United States Senate election in Alabama, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Colorado, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Georgia, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Nevada, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Ohio, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)
- United States Senate special election in Oklahoma, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary)
The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Primary competitiveness
Click here for primary election competitiveness statistics, including the number of open seats and contested incumbents in 2022.
Further analysis
Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020
Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2020 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more.
Click here to view the full report.
Wave elections
In aJuly 2018 report, Ballotpedia defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Click here to view the full report.
Special elections
Special elections toUnited States Senate are often required in theevent of vacancies. As of February 2026, there has been one special election for U.S. Senate scheduled for the117th Congress.
Special elections, 2013-2022
From 2013 to 2022, 67 special elections to the United States Congress were called during the 113th through 117th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 23 seats vacated by Democrats and 44 vacated by Republicans.
The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between 2013 and 2022. The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.
| Congressional special election vacancies and results, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congress | Total elections held | Vacancies before elections | Seats held after elections | Net change | ||
| Democrats | Republicans | Democrats | Republicans | |||
| 117th Congress | 17 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | No change |
| 116th Congress | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +1D, -1R |
| 115th Congress | 17 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +4 D, -4 R |
| 114th Congress | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | No change |
| 113th Congress | 16 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | No change |
| Averages | 13 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | N/A |
| U.S. Senate special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
| Democrats | 5 | 8 | ||||
| Republicans | 7 | 4 | ||||
| Total | 12 | 12 | ||||
| U.S. House special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
| Democrats | 18 | 20 | ||||
| Republicans | 37 | 35 | ||||
| Total | 55 | 55 | ||||
Special elections, 1986-2012
The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. Contact Ballotpedia ateditor@ballotpedia.org for access to earlier data.
| Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election cycle | Total special elections | U.S. House elections | Seats changing partisan control | U.S. Senate elections | Seats changing partisan control | |
| 2011-2012 | 11 | 11 | None | None | None | |
| 2009-2010 | 15 | 10 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | 5 | 2 (all Republican gains) | |
| 2007-2008 | 14 | 12 | 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
| 2005-2006 | 12 | 12 | 3 (all Democratic gains) | None | None | |
| 2003-2004 | 6 | 6 | None | None | None | |
| 2001-2002 | 6 | 5 | 2 (all Democratic gains) | 1 | 1 (Republican gain) | |
| 1999-2000 | 9 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | 1 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
| 1997-1998 | 3 | 3 | None | None | None | |
| 1995-1996 | 11 | 9 | 1 (Republican gain) | 2 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
| 1993-1994 | 9 | 6 | 1 (Republican gain) | 3 | 3 (all Republican gains) | |
| 1991-1992 | 10 | 7 | 2 (all Republican gains) | 3 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
| 1989-1990 | 10 | 8 | 1 (Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
| 1987-1988 | 12 | 12 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | None | None | |
| 1985-1986 | 8 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | None | None | |
| Total | 136 | 117 | 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) | 19 | 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains) | |
Party committee fundraising
Democratic fundraising
TheDemocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle:
| Monthly fundraising for the DSCC for the 2021-22 election cycle | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month (Dates covered) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
| Year-End 2022 (November 29-December 31, 2022) | $9,865,360.61 | $14,916,360.74 | $8,595,217.87 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| Post-General 2022 (October 20-November 28, 2022) | $35,320,088.66 | $55,785,192.43 | $13,646,218.00 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| Pre-General 2022 (October 1-19, 2022) | $37,191,286.44 | $39,542,256.21 | $34,111,521.77 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| October 2022 (September 1-30, 2022) | $28,769,311.90 | $38,151,774.31 | $36,459,491.54 | $0.00 | Filing |
| September 2022 (August 1-31, 2022) | $12,578,749.01 | $20,881,341.49 | $45,841,953.95 | $0.00 | Filing |
| August 2022 (July 1-31, 2022) | $10,102,351.75 | $9,496,094.09 | $54,144,546.43 | $0.00 | Filing |
| July 2022 (June 1-30, 2022) | $12,566,902.59 | $11,167,743.78 | $53,538,288.77 | $0.00 | Filing |
| June 2022 (May 1-31, 2022) | $11,900,623.32 | $6,599,838.15 | $52,139,129.96 | $0.00 | Filing |
| May 2022 (April 1-30, 2022) | $8,269,244.48 | $5,995,292.65 | $45,983,531.45 | $0.00 | Filing |
| April 2022 (March 1-31, 2022) | $12,524,106.59 | $6,681,395.51 | $43,709,579.62 | $0.00 | Filing |
| March 2022 (Feb. 1-28, 2022) | $15,012,444.42 | $6,401,962.44 | $37,866,868.54 | $0.00 | Filing |
| February 2022 (Jan. 1-31, 2022) | $10,666,141.34 | $5,104,332.75 | $29,256,386.56 | $0.00 | Filing |
| Year-End 2021 (Dec. 1-31, 2021) | $10,128,189.49 | $4,646,697.73 | $23,694,577.97 | $0.00 | Filing |
| December 2021 (Nov. 1-30, 2021) | $6,846,254.23 | $4,523,655.04 | $18,213,086.21 | $0.00 | Filing |
| November 2021 (Oct. 1-31, 2021) | $6,981,887.03 | $4,481,716.90 | $15,890,487.02 | $0.00 | Filing |
| October 2021 (Sept. 1-30, 2021) | $8,037,630.15 | $5,145,998.03 | $13,390,316.89 | $0.00 | Filing |
| September 2021 (Aug. 1-31, 2021) | $6,153,202.01 | $5,922,536.51 | $10,498,684.77 | $0.00 | Filing |
| August 2021 (July 1-31, 2021) | $6,473,053.97 | $7,770,185.85 | $10,268,019.27 | $2,000,000.00 | Filing |
| July 2021 (June 1-30, 2021) | $10,123,541.88 | $11,190,766.21 | $11,565,151.15 | $5,000,000.00 | Filing |
| June 2021 (May 1-31, 2021) | $7,168,163.64 | $7,258,068.33 | $12,632,375.48 | $8,000,000.00 | Filing |
| May 2021 (April 1-30, 2021) | $6,642,177.58 | $7,100,453.56 | $12,722,280.17 | $11,000,000.00 | Filing |
| April 2021 (March 1-31, 2021) | $9,292,748.21 | $6,315,393.50 | $13,180,556.15 | $15,000,000.00 | Filing |
| March 2021 (Feb. 1-28, 2021) | $7,265,921.55 | $6,108,300.17 | $10,203,201.44 | $18,000,000.00 | Filing |
| February 2021 (Jan. 1-31, 2021) | $6,094,399.76 | $6,833,277.29 | $9,045,580.06 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Republican fundraising
TheNational Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle:
| Monthly fundraising for the NRSC for the 2021-22 election cycle | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month (Dates covered) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
| Year-End 2022 (November 29-December 31, 2022) | $3,372,124.04 | $5,784,107.36 | $8,177,735.85 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| Post-General 2022 (October 20-November 28, 2022) | $12,054,403.63 | $15,155,797.37 | $10,589,719.17 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| Pre-General 2022 (October 1-19, 2022) | $15,468,969.33 | $15,452,555.70 | $13,691,112.91 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
| October 2022 (September 1-30, 2022) | $25,016,489.17 | $27,341,833.7 | $13,674,699.28 | $0.00 | Filing |
| September 2022 (August 1-31, 2022) | $12,613,097.87 | $19,778,682.06 | $16,000,043.81 | $0.00 | Filing |
| August 2022 (July 1-31, 2022) | $8,050,263.06 | $13,337,920.86 | $23,165,628.00 | $0.00 | Filing |
| July 2022 (June 1-30, 2022) | $9,456,309.22 | $17,006,565.16 | $28,453,285.80 | $0.00 | Filing |
| June 2022 (May 1-31, 2022) | $8,018,426.36 | $17,132,632.32 | $36,003,541.74 | $0.00 | Filing |
| May 2022 (April 1-30, 2022) | $8,146,970.56 | $7,164,015.84 | $45,117,747.70 | $0.00 | Filing |
| April 2022 (March 1-31, 2022) | $13,280,793.52 | $10,790,212.26 | $44,134,792.98 | $0.00 | Filing |
| March 2022 (Feb. 1-28, 2022) | $11,707,886.37 | $9,172,518.56 | $41,644,211.72 | $0.00 | Filing |
| February 2022 (Jan. 1-31, 2022) | $18,019,008.84 | $11,692,567.55 | $39,108,843.91 | $0.00 | Filing |
| Year-End 2021 (Dec. 1-31, 2021) | $11,236,079.02 | $8,541,350.07 | $32,782,402.62 | $0.00 | Filing |
| December 2021 (Nov. 1-30, 2021) | $8,389,156.42 | $7,985,767.53 | $30,087,673.67 | $0.00 | Filing |
| November 2021 (Oct. 1-31, 2021) | $9,001,481.07 | $7,089,100.08 | $29,684,284.78 | $0.00 | Filing |
| October 2021 (Sept. 1-30, 2021) | $9,531,613.39 | $6,998,909.18 | $27,771,903.79 | $0.00 | Filing |
| September 2021 (Aug. 1-31, 2021) | $8,004,299.83 | $6,902,129.94 | $25,239,199.58 | $0.00 | Filing |
| August 2021 (July 1-31, 2021) | $7,467,414.93 | $8,404,026.26 | $24,137,029.69 | $0.00 | Filing |
| July 2021 (June 1-30, 2021) | $10,523,491.53 | $6,153,766.10 | $25,073,641.02 | $0.00 | Filing |
| June 2021 (May 1-31, 2021) | $10,375,900.98 | $3,921,710.51 | $20,703,915.59 | $0.00 | Filing |
| May 2021 (April 1-30, 2021) | $7,206,465.03 | $5,290,732.63 | $14,249,725.12 | $0.00 | Filing |
| April 2021 (March 1-31, 2021) | $8,336,221.77 | $11,153,372.57 | $12,333,992.72 | $0.00 | Filing |
| March 2021 (Feb. 1-28, 2021) | $6,427,393.63 | $8,492,567.28 | $15,151,143.52 | $5,400,000.00 | Filing |
| February 2021 (Jan. 1-31, 2021) | $8,340,640.22 | $5,536,186.82 | $17,216,317.17 | $9,000,000.00 | Filing |
Congressional approval rating
- See also:Ballotpedia's Polling Index: Congressional approval rating andBallotpedia's Polling Indexes
The congressional approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the members of theUnited States Congress. It is the percentage of people polled who responded favorably toward the work of theU.S. Senate andHouse of Representatives.
The following chart includes the congressional approval rating over time, in addition to the presidential approval rating and direction of country rating.
To learn more about Ballotpeddia's Polling Indexes,click here.
Important dates and deadlines
The table below lists important dates throughout the 2022 congressional election cycle, including filing deadlines and primary dates.
| Primary dates and filing deadlines, 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Primary date | Primary runoff date | Filing deadline for primary candidates | Source |
| Alabama | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 1/28/2022 2/11/2022 (congressional) | Source |
| Alaska | 8/16/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
| Arizona | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source |
| Arkansas | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Source |
| California | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/11/2022 | Source |
| Colorado | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 | Source |
| Connecticut | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 6/7/2022 | Source |
| Delaware | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 7/12/2022 | Source |
| Florida | 8/23/2022 | N/A | 6/17/2022 | Source |
| Georgia | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 3/11/2022 | Source |
| Hawaii | 8/13/2022 | N/A | 6/7/2022 | Source |
| Idaho | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/11/2022 | Source |
| Illinois | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/14/2022 | Source |
| Indiana | 5/3/2022 | N/A | 2/4/2022 | Source |
| Iowa | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/18/2022 | Source |
| Kansas | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
| Kentucky | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 1/25/2022 | Source |
| Louisiana | 11/8/2022 | N/A | 7/22/2022[128] | Source |
| Maine | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 | Source |
| Maryland | 7/19/2022 | N/A | 4/15/2022 | Source |
| Massachusetts | 9/6/2022 | N/A | 5/31/2022 6/7/2022 (Congress and statewide office) | Source |
| Michigan | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 4/19/2022 | Source |
| Minnesota | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 5/31/2022 | Source |
| Mississippi | 6/7/2022 | 6/28/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Source |
| Missouri | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 3/29/2022 | Source |
| Montana | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/14/2022 | Source |
| Nebraska | 5/10/2022 | N/A | 2/15/2022 | Source |
| Nevada | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 3/18/2022 | Source |
| New Hampshire | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 6/10/2022 | Source |
| New Jersey | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source |
| New Mexico | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/24/2022 | Source |
| New York | 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only) | N/A | 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only) | Source |
| North Carolina | 5/17/2022 | 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved) | 3/4/2022 | Source |
| North Dakota | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 4/11/2022 | Source |
| Ohio | 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices) 8/2/2022 (state legislative offices) | N/A | 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022) | Source |
| Oklahoma | 6/28/2022 | 8/23/2022 | 4/15/2022 | Source |
| Oregon | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/8/2022 | Source |
| Pennsylvania | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only) 3/28/2022 (state legislative candidates) | Source Source |
| Rhode Island | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 7/15/2022 | Source |
| South Carolina | 6/14/2022 | 6/28/2022 | 3/30/2022 | Source |
| South Dakota | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/29/2022 | Source |
| Tennessee | 8/4/2022 | N/A | 4/7/2022 | Source |
| Texas | 3/1/2022 | 5/24/2022 | 12/13/2021 | Source |
| Utah | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/4/2022 | Source |
| Vermont | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 5/26/2022 | Source |
| Virginia[129] | 6/21/2022 | N/A | 4/7/2022 | Source |
| Washington | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 5/20/2022 | Source |
| West Virginia | 5/10/2022 | N/A | 1/29/2022 | Source |
| Wisconsin | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
| Wyoming | 8/16/2022 | N/A | 5/27/2022 | |
The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first.
| Record of date and deadline changes, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| State | Date of change | Description of change | Source |
| Louisiana | 6/6/2022 | A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. | Source |
| Ohio | 5/28/2022 | Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). | Source |
| New York | 5/10/2022 | A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. | Source;Source |
| Pennsylvania | 3/16/2022 | The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. | Source |
| Maryland | 3/15/2022 | The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. | Source |
| Massachusetts | 2/14/2022 | Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. | Source |
| Ohio | 5/28/2022 | Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. | Source |
| Utah | 2/14/2022 | Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. | Source |
| Maryland | 2/11/2022 | The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. | Source |
| Pennsylvania | 2/9/2022 | The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. | Source |
| Alabama | 1/24/2022 | The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. | Source |
| Kentucky | 1/6/2022 | Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. | Source |
| North Carolina | 12/8/2021 | The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. | Source |
| North Carolina | 2/9/2022 | The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. | Source |
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2022
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2022
- United States Congress
- United States Senate
- United States House of Representatives
- Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses
- 117th United States Congress
- Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022
External links
Footnotes
- ↑On December 9, 2022, Sen.Kyrsten Sinema announced she had changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent.Politico reported that Sinema would not caucus with Republicans, and said she intended "to vote the same way she [had] for four years in the Senate."Politico, "Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate," December 9, 2022
- ↑Note: Independent Sens.Angus King (Maine) andBernie Sanders (Vt.) caucus with Democrats and are counted among Democrats here.
- ↑Tulsa World, "U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe announces retirement after 35 years in Congress representing Oklahoma," February 25, 2022
- ↑This number includes Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) seat, up for a special election on November 8, 2022.
- ↑This number includes Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) seat, up for a special election on November 8, 2022.
- ↑The New York Times, "Despite Discontent, Midterm Voters Did Not Kick Out Incumbents," November 11, 2022
- ↑Politico, "Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate," December 9, 2022
- ↑8.08.18.2Independent Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine) caucus with the Democratic Party.
- ↑Sen. Kyrsten Sinema changed her affiliation from Democrat to independent after the 2022 elections. She announced she would not caucus with Republicans.
- ↑Charlotte Observer, "US Sen. Richard Burr says 2016 will be his last run for elected office," July 20, 2016
- ↑The Hill, "Toomey announces retirement at end of 2022," October 5, 2020
- ↑Cleveland.com, "U.S. Sen. Rob Portman says he won’t run for re-election: Capitol Letter," January 25, 2021
- ↑WAAY, "ALABAMA U.S. SEN. RICHARD SHELBY CONFIRMS HE WON'T RUN FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2022," February 8, 2021
- ↑Politico, "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt will not run for reelection," February 8, 2021
- ↑Casper Star Tribune, "Vermont Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy won’t seek reelection," November 15, 2021
- ↑AP News, "Alaska US Senate hopeful drops bid, backs fellow Republican," September 13, 2022
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "What It Will Take For Lisa Murkowski To Win Reelection In Alaska," July 29, 2022
- ↑NPR, "Murkowski and her Trump-backed challenger advance in Alaska Senate race," August 17, 2022
- ↑History, Art & Archives, United States House of Representatives, "MURKOWSKI, Lisa," accessed September 6, 2022
- ↑Twitter, "Lisa Murkowski," July 14, 2022
- ↑Lisa Murkowski for U.S. Senate, "Issues," accessed September 6, 2022
- ↑Linkedin, "Kelly T.," accessed September 6, 2022
- ↑23.023.1Kelly for Alaska, "Kelly's Plan," accessed September 6, 2022
- ↑CNN, "Donald Trump endorses Kelly Tshibaka for Senate in race against Lisa Murkowski," June 18, 2021
- ↑Alaska News Source, "Alaska Republican Party endorses Kelly Tshibaka in the 2022 race for the US Senate seat held by Murkowski," July 11, 2021
- ↑Politico, "Democrats for Murkowski: Alaska Republican counts her fans across the aisle," July 18, 2022
- ↑Washington Examiner, "Murkowski and Peltola buck party lines to endorse each other against Trump-backed challengers," October 24, 2022
- ↑For more information about which endorsements Ballotpedia defines as noteworthy,click here.
- ↑MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH, "Boards > Planning Commission," accessed September 6, 2022
- ↑Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Mark Kelly for Senate Launches 'Republicans for Kelly,'" July 15, 2022
- ↑Mark Kelly's 2022 campaign website, "Why I'm Running," accessed August 9, 2022
- ↑Blake Masters' 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed October 19, 2022
- ↑McSally had been appointed to fill the seat left vacant by the resignation of Sen.Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and death of Sen.John McCain (R-Ariz.).
- ↑The Hill, "Demings up by 4 points in challenge to Rubio: poll," August 16, 2022
- ↑Marco Rubio for Senate, "Meet Marco," accessed August 22, 2022
- ↑House.gov, "Congresswoman Val Demings," accessed January 31, 2019
- ↑Val Demings for Senate, "Issues," accessed August 22, 2022
- ↑Newsweek, “Walker's Chances of Beating Warnock With 100 Days to Midterm: Polls,” August 11, 2022
- ↑CNN, “ In Georgia Senate race, Walker and Warnock engage in debate over debates,” August 11, 2022
- ↑Politico, “‘Nobody wants a runoff’: Georgia braces for chance of overtime — again,” August 11, 2022
- ↑Politico, “‘There’s Never Been Anybody Like Him in the United States Senate,’” August 11, 2022
- ↑Raphael Warnock campaign website, “Meet Raphael,” August 11, 2022
- ↑Herschel Walker campaign website, “Home,” August 11, 2022
- ↑Herschel Walker campaign website, “About Herschel,” August 11, 2022
- ↑USA Today, “Who is Herschel Walker? The former football star is running for Senate in Georgia as a Republican,” August 11, 2022
- ↑Politico, "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt will not run for reelection," March 8, 2021
- ↑Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "About," accessed August 16, 2022
- ↑Missouri Independent, "Beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine captures Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate," August 2, 2022
- ↑Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "Trudy Busch Valentine Announces Campaign for U.S. Senate," March 28, 2022
- ↑Eric Schmitt's 2022 campaign website, "Issues," accessed August 16, 2022
- ↑51.051.1Time, "Control of the Senate May Come Down to Nevada’s ‘Politically Curious’ Hispanics," August 3, 2022
- ↑The Cook Political Report, "2022 Nevada Senate Overview," May 27, 2022
- ↑Biographical Directory of the United States Congress "CORTEZ MASTO, Catherine Marie," accessed August 4, 2022
- ↑Reno Gazette-Journal, "Nevada primary election voter guide: Veterans, painter, pageant winner among Senate hopefuls," May 11, 2022
- ↑Laxalt for U.S. Senate, "About Adam, accessed May 23, 2022; Adam Laxalt for Attorney General, "About," accessed May 23, 2022
- ↑Twitter, "Catherine Cortez Masto," June 30, 2022
- ↑Facebook, "Catherine Cortez Masto," September 6, 2022
- ↑Facebook, "Catherine Cortez Masto," September 10, 2022
- ↑Facebook, "Catherine Cortez Masto," August 30, 2022
- ↑Facebook, "Adam Laxalt," August 29, 2022
- ↑Adam Laxalt for U.S. Senate, "Issues," accessed September 12, 2022
- ↑Adam Laxalt for Senate, "Issues," accessed September 12, 2022
- ↑STATEMENT: SENATOR HASSAN ON DON BOLDUC TELLING NEW HAMPSHIRE WOMEN TO “GET OVER” THE OVERTURNING OF ROE, PUSH FOR A NATIONWIDE ABORTION BAN," September 18, 2022
- ↑New Hampshire Public Radio, "Hassan presses Bolduc on abortion, as national ban is proposed by GOP senator," September 16, 2022
- ↑WMUR, "Republican U.S. Senate candidate Don Bolduc on Sen. Maggie Hassan’s abortion focus: ‘Get over it,’" September 19, 2022
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "New Hampshire - Senate, 2022," accessed October 17, 2022
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "New Hampshire - Senate, 2020," accessed September 27, 2022
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "New Hampshire - Senate, 2016," accessed September 27, 2022
- ↑Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "BUDD, Theodore Paul," accessed April 6, 2022
- ↑Ted Budd - U.S. Senate, "Why I'm running," accessed September 27, 2022
- ↑Linkedin, "Cheri Beasley," accessed August 2, 2022
- ↑Cheri Beasley - U.S. Senate, "Meet Cheri Beasley," accessed August 2, 2022
- ↑Cheri Beasley - U.S. Senate, "Issues," accessed August 2, 2022
- ↑74.074.1Inside Elections, "Senate Ratings," March 8, 2021
- ↑Rob Portman: United States Senator for Ohio, "Portman Statement on Political Future," January 25, 2021
- ↑Tim Ryan's 2022 campaign website, "Issues," accessed February 15, 2022
- ↑Dayton Daily News, "Democrat Tim Ryan campaigns in Butler Co., seeks to fill Portman’s Senate post," February 24, 2021
- ↑78.078.1WKBN, "JD Vance, Tim Ryan answer hot questions in one-on-one interviews," June 22, 2022
- ↑The Columbus Dispatch, "Sen. Sherrod Brown endorses fellow Democrat Tim Ryan in U.S. Senate race," October 13, 2021
- ↑Spectrum News 1, "In-depth: Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance talks platform, issues," January 21, 2022
- ↑Axios, "Trump endorses J.D. Vance in Ohio Senate race," April 15, 2022
- ↑YouTube, "Blame Washington," August 17, 2022
- ↑LinkedIn, "Mehmet Oz," accessed August 3, 2022
- ↑YouTube, "Doctors Fix Things," August 24, 2022
- ↑CBS News, "Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman to return to in-person campaigning after stroke in May," August 5, 2022
- ↑Roll Call, "Oz seeks to rally GOP against very online Fetterman campaign," August 22, 2022
- ↑The Philadelphia Inquirer, "A tale of two campaigns: Fetterman rallies with his base while Oz tries to win over voters in smaller circles.," October 12, 2022
- ↑Ron Johnson-U.S. Senator for Wisconsin, "Biography," accessed August 12, 2022
- ↑Ron Johnson for Wisconsin, "About Ron," accessed August 15, 2022
- ↑90.090.1Mandela Barnes for Wisconsin, "Meet Mandela," accessed July 12, 2022
- ↑Official Website for Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, "About Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes," accessed July 12, 2022
- ↑This included Sen. Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucused with Democrats.
- ↑Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 to succeedKamala Harris (D).
- ↑Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 to succeedKamala Harris (D).
- ↑95.095.1Margin of victory
- ↑Smart Politics, "117th Congress Will Have Fewest Split US Senate Delegations in History," November 29, 2020
- ↑The New York Times, "Live Senate Vote Results: Impeachment Charge Against Trump," February 13, 2021
- ↑98.0098.0198.0298.0398.0498.0598.0698.0798.0898.0998.1098.1198.1298.1398.1498.1598.1698.17Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "A Blue Nevada Means Democrats Will Keep Control Of The Senate," November 12, 2022
- ↑https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-charts/senate-governors-charts-chew-how-independents-and-meh-voters-splitThe Cook Political Report, "Senate & Governors Charts To Chew On: How Independents and ‘Meh’ Voters Split for Democrats," November 22, 2022]
- ↑Inside Elections, "2022 Election Results Summary (Nov. 28 2022)," November 28, 2022
- ↑https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-charts/senate-governors-charts-chew-how-independents-and-meh-voters-splitThe Cook Political Report, "Senate & Governors Charts To Chew On: How Independents and ‘Meh’ Voters Split for Democrats," November 22, 2022]
- ↑Vox, "How independent voters saved Democrats," November 26, 2022
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "Candidate Quality Mattered," November 9, 2022
- ↑Vox, "How independent voters saved Democrats," November 26, 2022
- ↑New York Times, "Trump’s Drag on Republicans Quantified: A Five-Point Penalty," November 16, 2022
- ↑CNN, "Here's how you can tell who's winning the fight for the Senate," September 8, 2022
- ↑Sabato's Crystal Ball, "The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis," June 1, 2022
- ↑The Washington Post, "Opinion: The House looks like a GOP lock in 2022, but the Senate will be much harder," March 28, 2021
- ↑CNN, "Biden states will decide who controls the Senate," March 15, 2022
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "Why The President’s Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm," January 3, 2022
- ↑New York Magazine, "2022 Won’t Be Another 1994 Republican Tidal Wave," July 27, 2021
- ↑Cook Political Report, "The Senate Will Absolutely Be in Play in 2022," January 22, 2021
- ↑FiveThirtyEight, "What All Those GOP Retirements Mean For The 2022 Senate Map," January 25, 2021
- ↑Politico, "Trump acolytes poised to push out Senate dealmakers," August 31, 2021
- ↑Roll Call, "Senate 2022: Few opportunities as parties battle for control," April 1, 2021
- ↑Both general election candidates were Republicans.
- ↑This race was unopposed.
- ↑119.0119.1Both general election candidates were Democrats.
- ↑Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
- ↑Wild won by a margin of 0.2 percentage points.
- ↑The state Board of Elections declined to certify the results of the2018 election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud.
- ↑Collins won by 0.3 percentage points.
- ↑This special election was called to fill the vacancy left by 2020 Congressman-electLuke Letlow (R), who died before being sworn in to Congress.
- ↑Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.
- ↑Runoff MOV between two Democratic candidates.
- ↑Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.
- ↑A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee.
- ↑In Virginia, the Democratic and Republican parties form committees to decide on the method of nomination used for congressional races. These non-primary methods of nomination may take place on a date other than the statewide primary.
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