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2016 U.S. Senate Election in Pennsylvania

General Election Date November 8, 2016

Primary Date April 26, 2016

November 8 Election Winner: Pat Toomey

Incumbent prior to election: Pat Toomey

Race Ratings Cook Political Report:Toss-up[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball:Lean D[2] Rothenberg & Gonzales:Pure Toss-Up[3]

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2016 U.S. House Elections

Voters inPennsylvaniaelected one member to theU.S. Senate in theelection on November 8, 2016.

The race forPennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitivebattleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans keep control of the upper chamber after the November 8 general election. IncumbentPat Toomey (R), who began serving in the Senate in 2011, defeatedKatie McGinty (D),Edward Clifford III (L), and write-in candidateEverett Stern (I) in the general election.

Toomey ran his campaign separately fromDonald Trump, and he did not tell people who he would vote for on Election Day. Toomey said, “You know, I’m not campaigning with Donald Trump. He’s running his campaign. I’m running mine.”^[4][5][6]

Hillary Clinton, who campaigned with McGinty in October, criticized Toomey for not rejecting Trump as his party’s nominee. She said, “How much does he have to hear or to see? If he doesn’t have the courage to stand up against Donald Trump after all of this, then how will he stand up to special interests and powerful forces that are going to be trying to have their way in Washington?”^[6]

Speaking about his campaign strategy, Toomey said, “I am convinced that Pennsylvania voters are going to make a complete separation in their minds. … There’s a presidential race going on, quite obviously, lots of attention, lots of focus, everybody’s got their opinion about it, and then there’s a totally separate thing happening in the Senate race — an incumbent senator most people know and an opponent. Totally separate campaign and totally separate judgment.”^[6] Toomey stated on Election Day that he voted for Trump.^[7]

This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 congressional races in 2016.Click here to read the full list.

Primary: Aprimary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Pennsylvania utilizes aclosed primary process. Voters are required to register with a political party to vote in the primary election.^[8]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, seethis article.

Incumbent: The election filled theClass 3 Senate seat held byPat Toomey (R). He was first elected in 2010.

Election results

General election

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Pat ToomeyIncumbent	48.8%	2,951,702
	Democratic	Katie McGinty	47.3%	2,865,012
	Libertarian	Edward Clifford	3.9%	235,142
Total Votes				6,051,856
Source:Pennsylvania Department of State

Primary election

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Katie McGinty	42.5%	669,774
Joe Sestak	32.6%	513,221
John Fetterman	19.5%	307,090
Joseph Vodvarka	5.4%	85,837
Total Votes		1,575,922
Source:Pennsylvania Department of State

Candidates

General election candidates: Pat Toomeya Katie McGinty Edward Clifford III Everett Stern (Write-in)

Democratic Joe Sestak - Former U.S. Representative[10][11] Kathleen "Katie" McGinty - Former Chief of Staff toGovernorTom Wolf[10][12]a John Fetterman - Braddock Mayor[10][13]

Republican Pat Toomey - Incumbent[10]a

Race background

Republican coattails

Toomey and PresidentDonald Trump finished just a 0.1 percent apart on Election night. Toomey won 48.9 percent of the vote, while Trump won 48.8 percent of the vote.

A full breakdown of the Republican presidential and Senate races appears below.

*Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races asbattleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are fromCNN and will be updated after the final results are released.

2016 Republican Presidential and Senate election results
State	Presidential candidate vote %	Senate candidate vote %	Vote % Difference
Alabama	Donald Trump	IncumbentRichard Shelby
Totals	62.9%a	64.2%a	Shelby +1.3%
Alaska	Donald Trump	IncumbentLisa Murkowski
Totals	53.3%a	43.8%a	Trump +9.5%
Arizona	Donald Trump	IncumbentJohn McCain
Totals	49.5%a	53.4%a	McCain +3.9%
Arkansas	Donald Trump	IncumbentJohn Boozman
Totals	60.4%a	59.8%a	Trump +0.6%
Florida	Donald Trump	IncumbentMarco Rubio
Totals	49.1%a	52.1%a	Rubio +3.0%
Georgia	Donald Trump	IncumbentJohnny Isakson
Totals	51.4%a	55.1%a	Isakson +3.7%
Idaho	Donald Trump	IncumbentMike Crapo
Totals	59.0%a	66.0%a	Crapo +7.0%
Indiana	Donald Trump	Todd Young
Totals	57.2%a	52.2%a	Trump + 5.0%
Iowa	Donald Trump	IncumbentChuck Grassley
Totals	51.7%a	60.1%a	Grassley +8.4%
Kansas	Donald Trump	IncumbentJerry Moran
Totals	57.2%a	62.4%a	Moran +5.2%
Kentucky	Donald Trump	IncumbentRand Paul
Totals	62.5%a	+57.3%a	Trump +5.2%
Louisiana	Donald Trump	Multiple Republican candidates
Totals	58.1%a	(Race not called)	-
Missouri	Donald Trump	IncumbentRoy Blunt
Totals	57.1%a	49.4%a	Trump +7.7%
North Carolina	Donald Trump	IncumbentRichard Burr
Totals	50.5%a	51.1%a	Burr +0.6%
North Dakota	Donald Trump	IncumbentJohn Hoeven
Totals	64.1%a	78.6%a	Hoeven +14.5%
Ohio	Donald Trump	IncumbentRob Portman
Totals	52.1%a	58.3%a	Portman +6.2%
Oklahoma	Donald Trump	IncumbentJames Lankford
Totals	65.3%a	67.7%a	Lankford +2.4%
Pennsylvania	Donald Trump	IncumbentPat Toomey
Totals	48.8%a	48.9%a	Toomey +0.1%
South Carolina	Donald Trump	IncumbentTim Scott
Totals	55.6%a	61.2%a	Scott +5.6%
South Dakota	Donald Trump	IncumbentJohn Thune
Totals	61.5%a	71.8%a	Thune +10.3%
Utah	Donald Trump	Incumbent Mike Lee
Totals	45.5%a	67.4%a	Lee +21.9%
Wisconsin	Donald Trump	IncumbentRon Johnson
Totals	47.9%a	50.2%a	Johnson +2.3%
California	Donald Trump	No Republican on the ballot
Totals	33.3%d	No Republican on the ballot	-
Colorado	Donald Trump	Darryl Glenn
Totals	44.8%d	45.8%d	Glenn +1.0%
Connecticut	Donald Trump	Dan Carter
Totals	41.6%d	35.3%d	Trump +6.3%
Hawaii	Donald Trump	John Carroll
Totals	30.1%d	22.2%d	Trump +7.9%
Illinois	Donald Trump	IncumbentMark Kirk
Totals	39.4%d	40.2%d	Kirk +0.8%
Maryland	Donald Trump	Kathy Szeliga
Totals	35.3%d	36.4%d	Szeliga +1.1%
Nevada	Donald Trump	Joe Heck
Totals	45.5%d	44.7%d	Trump +0.8%
New Hampshire	Donald Trump	IncumbentKelly Ayotte
Totals	47.2%d	47.9%d	Ayotte +0.7%
New York	Donald Trump	Wendy Long
Totals	37.5%d	27.5%d	Trump +10.0%
Oregon	Donald Trump	Mark Callahan
Totals	41.3%d	33.9%d	Trump +7.4%
Vermont	Donald Trump	Scott Milne
Totals	32.6%d	33.0%d	Milne +0.4%
Washington	Donald Trump	Chris Vance
Totals	37.7%d	39.2%d	Vance +1.5%
Totals	Trump's average win: 55.4%	Republican senators' average win: 58.6%	Republican senators +3.2%

Debates

Second debate

During the second debate on October 24, 2016, Toomey and McGinty debated the following issues: equal pay, using ground forces to fight ISIS, jobs, small businesses, abortion, the future of the Supreme Court, college tuition, and energy policy, among other issues. The full debate can be viewedhere.

The candidates also traded personal insults and discussedHillary Clinton andDonald Trump. According to ABC News, “At one point, the two quarreled over whose side had to pull down a TV ad. At times, whole questions went unanswered while they attacked each other. They even squabbled over a question about whether months of negative campaign ads in the expensive race contributed to a general sense of distrust of and distaste for politics and government.” The hostile exchanges prompted debate moderator Jim Gardner to say, "I'm not sure your respective answers have done much to eliminate distrust and distaste."^[16]

First debate

In the first debate on October 17, 2016, Toomey criticized McGinty for supportingHillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, and McGinty criticized Toomey for not making his stance on Republican presidential nomineeDonald Trump clear to voters. They also discussed their differences on the future of theSupreme Court, theTrans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, energy policy, policing, theSecond Amendment,Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, and Citizens United.^[17] The debate can be viewedhere.

Primary election

Toomey was unopposed in the 2016 Republican primary, while McGinty defeatedJoe Sestak,John Fetterman, andJoseph Vodvarka to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on April 26, 2016.^{[18][19][20][21][22][23][24]}

DSCC spending

TheDemocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $425,000 on TV ads supporting McGinty in the primary election. The expenditure was unusual because the money was spent as a coordinated expenditure from the DSCC, not the usual independent expenditure. This could have potentially harmed the Democratic Party in the general election, as there is a limit of $1.9 million that can be spent on these types of expenditures in Pennsylvania, unlike independent expenditures which have no monetary limit.^[25]

The DSCC also reserved $1.1 million in ad time to support McGinty in the last two weeks before the primary.^[26]

Issues

Supreme Court vacancy

See also:Supreme Court vacancy, 2016: An overview

During the debate on October 17, 2016, McGinty criticized Toomey for not agreeing to hold a confirmation hearing for JudgeMerrick Garland, PresidentBarack Obama’s nominee to replace the late Supreme Court JusticeAntonin Scalia.

McGinty said, “The Constitution doesn't have many enumerated responsibilities for a United States Senator, but one of them is that you advise and consent, all hearings where the president nominates someone to stand on the bench. Senator Toomey has been part of a hyper-partisan cabal that, for the first time in our country's history, has refused a hearing to a nominee the president put forward. The president is not asking for a rubber stamp, but a hearing. I would stand up and make sure any nominee got that hearing.”^[17]

Toomey replied, “The Constitution is very clear that the power to seek a justice is a shared power between the president and the Senate. The American people will have a say with virtue of who they elect as President of the United States. I think that is the right way to move forward with the court.”^[17]

Toomey on Garland

• After meeting with Garland on April 12, 2016, Toomey published an op-ed on April 15, 2016, explaining his reasoning for opposing Garland’s nomination. He wrote, “[T]he balance of the Supreme Court is at stake, and we have an election right around the corner. With lifetime tenure, the next justice will determine the Court's balance for a generation. In that light, I believe it is sensible to allow the American people to participate in the choice of Justice Scalia's successor less than seven months from now.” Toomey also explained that he opposes Garland because “his record raises serious doubts that he would serve as an adequate, independent legal check on the EPA and other federal agencies” and because of his record on terrorism cases. Toomey wrote, “In sum, while Judge Garland is highly credentialed, areas of his legal thinking deeply concern me, particularly his excessive deference to overreaching agency regulations and his approach to the War on Terror.”^[27]

• On March 24, 2016, Toomey released the following statement explaining his decision to meet with Garland: "President Obama's team has asked if I would meet with Judge Merrick Garland, and I have agreed to do so out of courtesy and respect for both the president and the judge. The vacancy left by Justice Scalia's passing will not be filled until after the American people weigh in and select a new president, and I believe that is the best approach for deciding whether to alter the balance of the Supreme Court. I plan on making that clear to Judge Garland when I meet with him."^[28]

• On March 16, 2016, Toomey released the following statement regarding Garland’s nomination: "With the U.S. Supreme Court's balance at stake, and with the presidential election fewer than eight months away, it is wise to give the American people a more direct voice in the selection and confirmation of the next justice. Should Merrick Garland be nominated again by the next president, I would be happy to carefully consider his nomination, as I have done with dozens of judges submitted by President Obama."^[29]

Healthcare

See also:Effect of the Affordable Care Act in Pennsylvania

As citizens across the country dealt with rising healthcare premiums, the future of thePatient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known asObamacare, became a central issue in the Senate race. According toPennLive.com, “Premiums for Pennsylvanians who buy individual coverage from the Obamacare online marketplace will rise by an average of 33 percent, according to 2017 rates just approved by the Pennsylvania Insurance Department. Premiums for small group plans will rise by 7.1 percent.”^[30] Toomey favored repealing and replacing the ACA, while McGinty favored fixing the healthcare law.

Toomey: Repeal and replace the ACA

During the debate on October 17, 2016, Toomey called the ACA “a disaster” that “is flawed at the core.” He said, “Let's remember all the false promises made about Obamacare. We were told, if you like your insurance, you can keep it. We were told that while they were systematically disqualifying whole categories. We were told, if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. We were told that, even though we knew that the replacement plans would exclude all kinds of doctors. We were told we would save $2500 per family on average. All completely untrue. Costs have gone through the roof, options have collapsed. Deductibles have gone up. It has been the disaster I was afraid it could be. We tried to let a portion of the economy in the hands of Washington bureaucrats. Men and women sitting around the kitchen table should be making decisions about their family's health care, not bureaucrats in Washington.”^[17]

He then said that he favored repealing and replacing the law. He said, “I will have a transition for people currently in Obamacare. A transition to a competitive, multi-marketplace across state lines. We need to bring out some of the excess cost, like excessive litigation.”^[17]

McGinty: Fix the ACA

During the debate on October 17, 2016, McGinty said the ACA needed to be fixed by making the law more affordable and lowering the cost of prescription drugs. She said, “We have to bring down the cost. I would take down the cost of prescription drugs. Under the law, we are not allowed to negotiate the cost. That is wrong. No other country in the world does that. We need transparency, so that consumers know before they have a procedure what it is going to cost.^[17]

McGinty also said that she opposed repealing the law and putting “the insurance companies back in charge” because “they can charge women more than men” and can “kick you off your insurance if you have a pre-existing condition.”^[17]

The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

See also:The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal: An overview

Toomey and McGinty both opposed theTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was a trade deal between the United States and 11 Asia-Pacific countries. The deal sought to promote trade and strengthen the relationships between the 12 nations by reducing and eliminating tariffs, fostering competition, and creating greater opportunities for businesses. The countries involved also agreed to promote environmental protection practices and enforce laws protecting workers. On January 23, 2017, PresidentDonald Trump (R) signeda memorandum that withdrew the United States from negotiations involving the TPP. The action ended U.S. involvement in the multilateral trade deal, which had not been ratified by Congress.^[31]

Although Toomeyvoted to give PresidentBarack Obamatrade promotion authority (TPA) to negotiate the TPP and praised the deal during a 2015 interview, he opposed voting in favor of the TPP.^[32]

In a 2016 op-ed, Toomey praised free trade, but he explained that TPP was not a good free trade deal. He wrote, “In the TPP, the Obama administration has not gotten a good enough deal for Pennsylvania workers. … As it now stands, TPP is not a good deal for Pennsylvania. I cannot support it.” He argued that the TPP would hurt Pennsylvanians who work in the life science and pharmaceutical sector and the dairy industry. He wrote, “TPP will make it too easy for other countries to steal innovations that we create in Pennsylvania and take the jobs tied to those innovations.” He added that the deal will not open up foreign markets, specifically the Canadian market, to dairy exports from farmers in the state.^[32]

McGinty accused Toomey of changing his position on TPP, andPolitiFact rated Toomey’s stance on the trade deal a “Full Flop.” Citing a 2015 interview onMSNBC’s "Morning Joe,"PolitiFact noted that Toomey expressed his support for TPA and the TPP without saying that he would reserve judgment until the final deal was released. Toomey said during the interview, "This [TPP] helps to encourage economic growth in the United States, job creation in Pennsylvania and the United States, and importantly Joe, you know these countries that we’re dealing with, they’re changing, they’re evolving some of them are rapidly developing. They’re either going to do that under the influence of the Chinese, who are very aggressively trying to insert themselves, or they’re going to do it with us."^[33]

When host Joe Scarborough asked Toomey, "Isn’t this one more step in a globalization process that has gutted manufacturing not only in Pennsylvania, but across America?" Toomey replied, "no.” He added, “[W]e’ve got an opportunity with this trade agreement to knock down some of the barriers that keep our products out, so I think this is going to be very constructive."^[33]

McGinty explained her opposition to the TPP during the debate on October 17, 2016. She said, “I have opposed the TPP in pushing it through and fast tracking it. Even the proponents say it will cost us 50,000 good manufacturing jobs a year. The senator flip-flopped on that recently but I think it is just like with Donald Trump, that the senator doesn't want to be straight about this. My view is, the rules matter, we need a level, fair playing field. When the playing field is fair, nobody can outcompete the American worker.”^[17]

Second Amendment

In a split from his party, Toomey supported expanding background checks on gun sales, which earned him the endorsements of gun control activists former Arizona CongresswomanGabby Giffords and former Mayor of New York CityMichael Bloomberg. Despite these high-profile gun control endorsements, McGinty said that Toomey “has sided with the gun lobby instead of doing what's right to keep communities safe. Pat Toomey has completely run away from legislation to expand background checks, since it failed to pass the Senate three years ago."^[34]

According toReuters, McGinty supported stronger gun control measures, including “bans on military-style ‘assault weapons’ and high-capacity ammunition clips that Toomey opposes.” In an effort to downplay the endorsements from Giffords and Bloomberg, McGinty ran an ad showing Toomey touting his “perfect record” with theNational Rifle Association.^[34]

In response to the ad, Toomey said, "The idea that somehow they've [Giffords and Bloomberg] all got it wrong and Katie McGinty, my opponent, has it right is just laughable.”^[34]

Toomey on the Second Amendment

• During the debate on October 17, 2016, Toomey said, “I'm a big believer in the Second Amendment. I think it is a personal, individual right, and an important one. I just don't think there's a conflict between the second amendment and a three-minute background check. We have had votes three times when we introduced that. When we had a debate this summer about keeping terrorists from buying firearms, I supported three different versions of that to find common ground, including working with Susan Collins. Gabby Giffords, Democratic Congresswoman, she has endorsed me in this campaign, because she has recognized my leadership, and the fact that it has to be bipartisan. … Senator Manchin and I worked really hard to bring as many people together as we could. We introduced legislation repeatedly. We had three votes on it. When I saw an opportunity to have a background check on people on the no-fly list, I crafted the legislation to do that. When the Democrats refused to help, I worked with Susan Collins to get that done. I will continue to defend the Second Amendment of law-abiding citizens, but I will also try to get guns out of the hands of filing criminals, dangerously mentally ill people, and people on the no-fly list.”^[17]

• During an interview withReuters in September 2016, Toomey said, "I'm a strong Second Amendment supporter. I see no contradiction between that support and insisting on background checks, so that people who've got no right to the Second Amendment because they're dangerous criminals or they're dangerously mentally ill or they're terrorists, should be denied a firearm any way we can."^[34]

• In June 2016, after Democrats called for increased gun control measures, Toomey voted against an amendment that would have required a background check for every firearm sale and an amendment that would have allowed the U.S. attorney general to prohibit individuals who were suspected of being involved in acts of terror during the previous five years from purchasing a gun. Both were rejected by the Senate. He voted for an amendment that proposed allowing the U.S. attorney general to "delay the transfer of the firearm or explosive for a period not to exceed 3 business days" to an individual "investigated as a known or suspected terrorist." The waiting period would have given theU.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) time to investigate an individual who was suspected of terrorist activities during the previous five years and would have allowed the DOJ to obtain a court order to prevent the individual from obtaining a firearm or explosive. He also voted for an amendment that proposed reauthorizing funding for the National Criminal Instant Background Check System and providing incentives for states that submitted mental health records to the federal government to prevent the sale of firearms to mentally ill individuals. Both amendments were rejected by the Senate.^{[35][36][37][38]}

• In April 2013, after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, Toomey and Sen.Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) introduced an amendment which proposed expanding background checks to guns sold online and at gun shows, but it failed to earn enough support in the Senate to pass.^[39][40]

McGinty on the Second Amendment

• During the debate on October 17, 2016, McGinty said that she supports closing “the background check loopholes” and not allowing “terrorists to buy weapons of war in our country.” She said, “I come from a family where my brothers were hunters. We had guns, and hunting guns in the house. I don't think this is -- Senator Toomey did a photo-op about one piece of legislation. When it came to closing the loophole that allows terrorists to buy guns in our country, he voted no, not once, but twice. What I would do is bring people to the table, and stay at the table, respectfully, with different points of view. I think we can achieve consensus around those kind of common ground, common sense measures. Really, two of them. Closing the background check loopholes for criminals and the mentally infirm. It only lost by five votes. Yet, Senator Toomey says the Senate has spoken, let's move on. I most certainly would work to close the loophole that allows terrorists to buy guns.”^[17]

• According to her campaign website, McGinty “will advocate for universal background checks and work to close the terror loophole. It makes no sense that we turn a blind eye to some gun sales but not others, and that we allow those who present enough risk to be barred from a commercial flight to buy weapons. I will also work to reinstate the civilian ban on military-style weapons and end civilian access to high-capacity magazines. As someone who comes from a family of hunters and gun-owners, I see no clear reason for private citizens to buy and own military assault weapons and magazines that allow people to shoot multiple rounds at a time.”^[41]

Clifford on the Second Amendment

• During an interview on October 8, 2016, Clifford discussed his stance on gun control regulations. He said, “The federal government vastly exceeds its authority when it regulates guns. The regulations in place create victims of law-abiding citizens by restricting their ability to defend themselves from those who would do harm to them in places law-abiding citizens have a right to be. Criminals do not follow the law and will not respect so called ‘gun-free’ zones, prohibitions on weapons purchases, or apply for permits for concealed carry. All these regulations do is punish peaceful people by making them easy prey for criminals.”^[42]

• During an interview on October 8, 2016, Clifford discussed his stance on background checks. He said, “The background checks in place now for purchasing a firearm are adequate. Legislating universal background checks introduces another opportunity for the government to disrupt people’s lives and create a list riddled with errors. Once these lists are compiled and mistakes appear, it is nearly impossible to correct errors or get rid of the lists.”^[42]

• When asked if he would support an “assault weapons ban,” Clifford said, “I am against assault weapons bans because they are ineffective. Any assault weapons ban only punishes peaceful and law-abiding people. Independent studies have shown that the 1994 assault weapons ban had little impact in reducing violence and that future legislation would have little to no impact as well.”^[42]

Stern on the Second Amendment

• According to his campaign website, Stern was an "absolute supporter of the Second Amendment." His website stated, "Too many politicians, such as President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Senator Patrick Toomey, will seize every opportunity to advance a gun-grabbing agenda. Senator Toomey believes in restricting gun rights for all Pennsylvanians. I am an absolute supporter of the Second Amendment. I believe every law abiding Pennsylvania citizen should always have the right to bear arms. As a US Senator, I will make sure Pennsylvania’s large and small businesses do not have their American rights violated by federal mandates that infringe on the morals of Pennsylvania’s constituents. I will fight to repeal the work Senator Toomey has done with the Obama Administration. I will oppose all legislative actions that impose unnecessary burdens on law-abiding gun owners. I will fight for conservative judges who have a deep respect for the Constitution and the Second Amendment. The Second Amendment is the original homeland security act. I will tirelessly fight to defend this basic Constitutional right."^[43]

Campaign themes

Pat Toomey

The following issues were listed on Toomey's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes,click here.

Katie McGinty

The following issues were listed on McGinty's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes,click here.

Presidential preference

Clinton and Trump

See also:Presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2016

During the first debate on October 17, 2016, Toomey and McGinty argued aboutHillary Clinton (D) andDonald Trump (R).

When asked why she was supporting Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, McGinty said, “[B]ecause she will work for families, the same reason I am in this campaign.” She then criticized Toomey for not definitively stating if he would vote for Trump.^[17]

Toomey replied, “Because Katie is so extremely partisan, she might not grasp the idea that someone might have trouble with a candidate in their own party. I have been willing to criticize Donald Trump because I think he is a badly flawed candidate. I also know that, if he were president, he would also signed legislation that would be productive. Like repealing Obamacare and restoring sanctions on Iran.”^[17]

Toomey then criticized McGinty for not pointing out Clinton’s flaws as a candidate. He said, “What I can't believe is that Katie McGinty can't criticize anything about Hillary Clinton, including all of her lies.”^[17]

Toomey explained why he was not able to support Trump, saying, “I have not reached a point where I can endorse Donald Trump. The things I have mentioned. I do also acknowledge that he would sign some legislation that would be constructive. I feel like I am in the same position as an awful lot of Pennsylvanians. We have two badly flawed candidates. I can believe in a country of 300 million this is what we've got. But Katie McGinty, she can't even bring herself to acknowledge the incredible flaws of the candidate of her party.”^[17]

When asked a final time if he would tell the people of Pennsylvania who he would vote for, Toomey said, “At a certain point, I probably will. But there is more we need to talk about on ethics.”^[17]

Pat Toomey

See also:Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump and Republican reactions to 2005 Trump tape

• On October 10, 2016, Toomey said that he would not endorseDonald Trump, but he did not say whether he would vote for Trump. He also said that he would not vote for Clinton. In a news release, Toomey said, "Sadly, last night’s debate again showed the shortcomings of both presidential candidates. I have not endorsed Donald Trump and I have repeatedly spoken out against his flawed policies, and his outrageous comments, including his indefensible and appalling comments about women."^[45]

• On May 9, 2016, Toomey was unsure whether he would endorse or vote for Trump. Toomey said, "I've got this set of doubts. And I hope we don't get to a point where I decide I just can't support him. My message to Donald Trump is: You need to unite the Republican Party if you want to win this general election. I hope to get to the point where I can enthusiastically support Donald Trump. I'm not there right now."^[46]

Katie McGinty

See also:Endorsements for Hillary Clinton

On January 17, 2016, McGinty sent the following tweet: “I'm supporting @HillaryClinton because she's a proven champion for middle class and working families. #DemDebate #ImWithHer.”^[47]

Endorsements

Pat Toomey

• Altoona Mirror - "Toomey’s agenda reflects a common sense approach that would be especially helpful in solving the problems surrounding health care, the Middle East and immigration. We would heartily recommend Pennsylvania voters pull the lever for Toomey in a race that may well determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in 2017."^[48]

• The Tribune-Democrat - "The Republican has been a friend to our region, and has represented Pennsylvania’s interests in Congress. We endorse Toomey for a second term in the Senate."^[49]

• PennLive.com - "When it comes to making the hard decisions, merely agreeing with someone is sometimes not enough. You need someone to make the tough decisions and to break with the White House when the occasion dictates. We are not confident that McGinty is possessed of that kind of independence and are profoundly concerned that she would be little more than a rubber stamp for a putative Democratic White House. Toomey, with an actual track record of bipartisanship, does have the instinct for compromise. And he has earned another six years in Washington."^[50]

• The Courier Times andThe Intelligencer - "For voters at political odds with Toomey or simply seeking change, McGinty is a credible and qualified option. But our board sees no reason to change. We recommend Sen. Pat Toomey for another term."^[51][52]

• York Daily Record^[53]

• Americans for Responsible Solutions - In an op-ed, former U.S. Rep.Gabrielle Giffords and her husband Captain Mark Kelly, co-founders of the gun violence prevention organization Americans for Responsible Solutions, wrote, "In the wake of the tragedy at Sandy Hook, Republican Sens. Pat Toomey and Mark Kirk broke from the gun lobby and supported a bill to help prevent felons, domestic abusers and the dangerously mentally ill from obtaining firearms at gun shows and online. This week, they are earning our organization's endorsement."^[54]

• Independence USA - "Independence USA highlighted United States Senator Pat Toomey’s work with West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin to try and broker a compromise that would close the gun-show loophole and keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally infirm - a policy supported by the overwhelming majority of gun owners in the United States - as a major reason for supporting him."^[55]

• Founder of Independence USA former New York City MayorMichael Bloomberg - “In the wake of Newtown, Pat Toomey crossed party lines to lead the fight to reduce gun violence in America by co-sponsoring legislation to close the background check loophole. His pragmatic leadership in Washington deserves the support of every Pennsylvanian.”^[55]

Katie McGinty

• Lancaster Online - "As a community newspaper, our primary concern is Lancaster County. Thus, our decision to endorse must come down to which candidate we believe will best serve the interests of people here. Toomey, of course, has a legislative record that McGinty cannot match. But we believe McGinty’s record of public service has prepared her to serve in the Senate. And she seems committed to Lancaster County — she has made an effort to connect with the county and its people, and she understands the issues facing working families here. Both are excellent candidates, with widely differing priorities. Because Lancaster County doesn’t seem to be one of Toomey’s, we narrowly endorse Katie McGinty."^[56]

• Citizens’ Voice,Times-Tribune, andStandard-Speaker - "Toomey’s record does not warrant re-election whereas McGinty has the policy credentials to be an effective senator."^[57]

• The Inquirer - "Because she has a genuine grasp on the human consequences of government policies and seeks to improve the quality of life for all, The Inquirer endorses KATIE MCGINTY for U.S. Senate."^[58]

• PresidentBarack Obama and Vice PresidentJoe Biden^[59]

• Philadelphia Building & Construction Trades Council, Business Manager John Dougherty - "Katie McGinty has a track record of uniting labor and lawmakers to build a vibrant, more resilient future for Pennsylvania. Katie is committed to reinvesting in American workers, creating opportunity and strengthening our economy here in Philadelphia and across the nation."^[60]

• AFSCME Council 13 - "Katie McGinty has always been an advocate for labor and working families. She has devoted her life to public service and also brings private sector experience to the table. McGinty will not only fight for a healthier environment, but a healthier economy for working people, who have too often gotten the short end of the stick."^[61]

• Services Employees International Union - "No candidate in this race is as committed to standing with working families as Katie McGinty."^[62]

• League of Conservation Voters^[63]

• International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) - "We need a senator who is focused like a laser on protecting and expanding the ranks of the middle class and Katie McGinty will be that senator."^[64]

• Pennsylvania GovernorTom Wolf (D) - "I’m endorsing Katie McGinty to be our next U.S. Senator because I know she’ll be an incredible advocate for Pennsylvanians all across our commonwealth."^[65]

• The United Steelworkers - "The USW is proud to endorse Katie McGinty for U.S. Senate. She has been a tireless advocate for workers’ rights and protections. Pennsylvania needs an honest, hard-working senator with high ethics and principled positions to represent us in Washington, and Katie is the right person at the right time."^[66]

• EMILY's List - "The Senate could use a woman like Katie, who has proven her commitment to creating middle-class jobs and preserving the environment. The EMILY's List community of over three million members is excited to support Katie."^[67]

• Former Pennsylvania GovernorEd Rendell (D)^[68]

• U.S. Rep.Michael Doyle, Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, and Pittsburgh MayorBill Peduto^[69]

• Amalgamated Transit Union - "We are proud to support Katie McGinty for United States Senate because she has been a true champion of public transit and a true friend of working families. McGinty understands that Pennsylvanians depend on public transportation every day to get to work, school, the doctor and other daily tasks. She has a proven record of problem solving and delivering for middle class families and will protect the right of workers to join a union. McGinty is the right choice for Pennsylvania."^[70]

Defeated candidate

Joe Sestak

• Rep.Matt Cartwright - "Joe Sestak will be a great senator. He's an independent thinker who will not go along to get along."^[71]

Polls

Pennsylvania Senate - Pat Toomey vs. Katie McGinty (October 2016-Present)
Poll	Katie McGinty	Pat Toomey	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Emerson College October 17-19, 2016	43%	46%	+/-3.4	800
Quinnipiac University October 10-16, 2016	45%	49%	+/-3.8	660
Bloomberg October 7-11, 2016	47%	45%	+/-3.5	806
Susquehanna October 4-9, 2016	38%	42%	+/-3.5	764
CBS News/YouGov October 5-7, 2016	42%	42%	+/-4.2	997
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3-6, 2016	48%	44%	+/-3.7	709
Monmouth University September 30-October 3, 2016	46%	46%	+/-4.9	402
Franklin & Marshall September 28-October 2, 2016	41%	35%	+/-6.1	496
Quinnipiac University September 27-October 2, 2016	42%	50%	+/-4.2	535
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org

Pennsylvania Senate - Pat Toomey vs. Katie McGinty (2015-October 2016)
Poll	Katie McGinty	Pat Toomey	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Gravis Marketing September 23, 2016	43%	39%	+/-3.2	949
CNN/ORC September 20-25, 2016	49%	46%	+/-3.5	771
Gravis September 23, 2016	43%	39%	+/-3.2	949
Morning Call September 19-23, 2016	40%	41%	+/-5.0	486
Harper (R) September 21-22, 2016	42%	42%	+/-4.4	500
Mercyhurst September 12-23, 2016	42%	43%	+/-4.8	420
Morning Call September 12-16, 2016	41%	38%	+/-5.0	486
Quinnipiac University August 31-September 7, 2016	45%	46%	+/-3.5	778
CBS News August 30-September 2, 2016	39%	39%	+/-4.1	1,091
Franklin & Marshall College August 25-29, 2016	43%	38%	+/-5.6	496
Monmouth University Polling Institute August 26-29, 2016	45%	41%	+/-4.9	402
Emerson College August 25-28, 2016	39%	46%	+/-3.4	800
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist August 3-7, 2016	48%	44%	+/-3.4	834
Quinnipiac University July 30-August 7, 2016	47%	44%	+/-3.4	815
Susquehanna Polling and Research July 31-August 8, 2016	42%	40%	+/-3.5	772
Franklin & Marshall College July 29-29, 2016	39%	38%	+/-6.3	389
Public Policy Polling July 29-31,2016	41%	42%	+/-2.5	1,505
Suffolk University July 25-27, 2016	43%	36%	+/-4.4	500
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist July 5-10, 2016	47%	44%	+/-3.4	829
Quinnipiac University June 30-July 11, 2016	39%	49%	+/-3.1	982
Public Policy Polling June 22-23, 2016	39%	40%	+/-3.1	980
Quinnipiac University June 8-19, 2016	40%	49%	+/-3.2	950
Quinnipiac University April 27-May 8, 2016	44%	45%	+/-3.0	1,077
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org

Media

Pat Toomey

Support

Opposition

Katie McGinty

Support

Opposition

Defeated candidates

Joe Sestak

Support

Opposition

John Fetterman

Campaign contributions

Pat Toomey

Katie McGinty

The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may not represent all the funds spent on their behalf.Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer, and campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at theFEC website. Clickhere for more on federal campaign finance law andhere for more on state campaign finance law.

Presidential impact

Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm elections.^[72] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 5 Senate seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 seats in the last two midterms.^[73] The fact that 2016 was a presidential election cycle was a cause of increased Republican vulnerability in the Senate.

Election history

2012

See also:United States Senate elections in Pennsylvania, 2012

Bob Casey Jr. won re-election to theUnited States Senate in 2012.

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Bob Casey Jr.Incumbent	53.7%	3,021,364
	Republican	Tom Smith	44.6%	2,509,132
	Libertarian	Rayburn Douglas Smith	1.7%	96,926
Total Votes				5,627,422
Source:Pennsylvania Department of State

2010

On November 2, 2010, Pat Toomey won election to theUnited States Senate. He defeated Joe Sestak in the general election.^[74]

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Pat Toomey	51%	2,028,945
	Democratic	Joe Sestak	49%	1,948,716
Total Votes				3,977,661

Important dates and deadlines

See also:Pennsylvania elections, 2016

The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Pennsylvania in 2016.

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2016
• United States Senate elections, 2016
• Pat Toomey

Footnotes

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