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United States Senate election in Montana, 2024

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2026
2020
U.S. Senate, Montana
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 11, 2024
Primary: June 4, 2024
General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
U.S. Senate, Montana
U.S. Senate1st2nd
Montana elections, 2024
U.S. Congress elections, 2024
U.S. Senate elections, 2024
U.S. House elections, 2024

Tim Sheehy (R) defeated incumbent Sen.Jon Tester (D) in thegeneral election for Montana's U.S. Senate seat on November 5, 2024.[1] Tester was one of three incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns to theU.S. Senate in 2024. Additionally, this was one of five seats that changed partisan control due to the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.

Open Secrets' Lydia McFarlane said the election would be one of the most competitive in 2024 because of the "deep red nature of Montana's electorate. Former president Donald Trump won the state by 16 percentage points in the 2020 election. Tester is currently the only Democrat holding statewide office in Montana, with Republicans controlling the state legislature and governor's office."[2] Tester was first elected to the Senate in 2006, and was re-elected in 2012 and 2018.

Four major election forecasters differed in theirratings for the general election, with three rating it Lean Republican and one rating it Tilt Republican.

Tester received a bachelor’s degree from the University of Great Falls. Before running for political office, Tester worked for his family's farm, as a music teacher, and served on the Big Sandy School Board.[3] Tester served in theMontana Senate from 1998 to 2006 and was Senate president from 2005 to 2006.[3]

Tester said, "It’s important that we have a voice that represents rural America back there in Washington, D.C., and that's why I'm running."[4] Tester said he would defend Medicare and Social Security, expand veterans clinics, and invest in rural hospitals and schools.[5][6]

Sheehy received a bachelor's degree from the U.S. Naval Academy. Sheehy served in the U.S. Navy as a SEAL officer and team leader and worked as a CEO and founder of Ascent Vision Technologies and Bridger Aerospace.[7]

At the Republican National Convention in July, Sheehy said, "I’m running for the United States Senate in Montana to bring back accountability to our government and beat John Tester, the liberal Washington politician who votes with Biden and Kamala every single time it matters."[8] Sheehy said he would oppose policies that transfer public lands to the federal government, increase America’s energy independence, increase border security, protect gun ownership, and increase fiscal responsibility.[9]

Based on Q2 2024 reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Tester raised $43.78 million and spent $33.37 million, and Sheehy raised $14.07 million and spent $10.80 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, clickhere.

Michael Downey (Green Party) andSid Daoud (L) ran in the November general election. Daoud completedBallotpedia's Candidate Connection Survey. Clickhere to read Daoud's responses.For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Contents

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

  • July 10, 2024: Remington Research Group released apoll sponsored by American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party, of 570 likely voters showing Sheehy at 50% and Tester at 45%. The margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points.[10]
  • June 28, 2024: Torchlight Strategies released apoll sponsored by Common Sense for America PAC, a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party, of 649 registered voters showing Sheehy at 47% and Tester at 41%. The margin of error was ±3.9 percentage points.[11]
  • June 13, 2024: Public Opinion Strategies released apoll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party of 500 likely voters showing Tester and Sheehy tied at 46%. The margin of error was ±4.4 percentage points.[12]

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Montana

Tim Sheehy defeated incumbentJon Tester,Sid Daoud, andRobert Barb in the general election for U.S. Senate Montana on November 5, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Sheehy
Tim Sheehy (R)
 
52.6
 
319,682
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester (D)
 
45.5
 
276,305
Image of Sid Daoud
Sid Daoud (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.2
 
7,272
Robert Barb (G)
 
0.7
 
4,003

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 607,262
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana

IncumbentJon Tester defeatedMichael Hummert in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester
 
97.0
 
104,279
Image of Michael Hummert
Michael Hummert
 
3.0
 
3,272

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 107,551
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Tim Sheehy defeatedBrad Johnson andCharles A. Walking Child in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Sheehy
Tim Sheehy
 
73.6
 
139,857
Image of Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson
 
19.4
 
36,926
Image of Charles A. Walking Child
Charles A. Walking Child Candidate Connection
 
7.0
 
13,229

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 190,012
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Michael Downey defeatedRobert Barb in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Michael Downey
 
62.4
 
679
Robert Barb
 
37.6
 
410

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 1,089
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

The Libertarian primary election was canceled.Sid Daoud advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Montana.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Voting information

See also:Voting in Montana

Election information inMontana: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
  • By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 7, 2024
  • Online: N/A

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 4, 2024
  • By mail: N/A by N/A
  • Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 7, 2024 to Nov. 4, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (MST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completedBallotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, clickhere.

Image of Jon Tester

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party:Democratic Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

Biography:  Tester received a bachelor's degree from the College of Great Falls. Tester worked as an elementary school music teacher.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages,click here.


Tester's website said he would stand up to outside influencers and work to prevent corruption. It said, "Jon is relentless in standing up to outsiders who are hell-bent on changing our way of life by buying Montana for themselves and driving up the cost to live here. There are those who want to change Montana—but Jon will always stand tough by fighting corruption in Washington and taking on anyone, no matter how powerful, to do what’s right for us just like he always has."


Tester's website said he would continue to support policies he believed benefited rural communities in Montana. It said, "He is a fierce defender of Medicare and Social Security, a tireless advocate for veterans, and will never stop fighting to improve our schools, tackle rising costs, and invest in rural America."


Tester's website said he would continue to work with members of both parties in Congress. It said, "Jon has worked with Republicans to get things done, and he’ll stand up to both parties to do what’s right for Montana. It’s why Jon is ranked one of the most effective senators in Washington – of either party – and has gotten more bills signed into law than any other member of Congress this year."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Montana in 2024.

Image of Tim Sheehy

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party:Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Sheehy received a bachelor's degree from the U.S. Naval Academy. He served in the U.S. Navy as a SEAL officer and team leader and worked as a CEO and founder of Ascent Vision Technologies and Bridger Aerospace.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages,click here.


On energy production, Sheehy's website said he supported repealing Environmental Protection Agency regulations he believed increase energy prices. It said, "We are blessed here with abundant coal, minerals, timber and grasslands – let’s make sure Montana producers come first. We should be able to responsibly develop those resources here at home to create more high-paying jobs, lower energy costs, and support our communities, all while protecting the environment."


On immigration, Sheehy's campaign website said, "The result of an open southern border is more crime and drugs flooding into our country and into our Montana communities. We need to take a strong stand and secure our border, finish the wall, and finally put an end to illegal immigration once and for all."


Sheehy's website said he would support reducing government spending. Sheehy said, "I’m committed to ensuring that politicians who fail to pass a balanced budget don’t get paid because our country’s economic security should never be jeopardized for the sake of politics. You are not allowed to run your business that way, and they shouldn’t be allowed to run our nation that way."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Montana in 2024.

Image of Sid Daoud

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party:Libertarian Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I’m a Montanan with a rich family history, representing two American dreams. On my mother’s side, the dream of early settlers in territorial Montana, and on my father’s, that of Armenian immigrants, coming to America to work hard and make a new life.I was born and raised in Great Falls, proudly served my country in the US Army for 13 years, married my high school sweetheart and raised three great kids.In 2006, we settled our family in the Flathead Valley, where we had the opportunity to enjoy the outdoors, send our kids to great schools, and make friends with wonderful people who come from many different social and political perspectives. I’ve had a long, thriving career, working in Information Technology for large enterprise operations and as a private consultant. I’ve volunteered with many outstanding organizations, such as Kalispell’s Cancer Support Community and Habitat for Humanity to deepen my connections in the Valley and give back to the community I love.In 2016, I became more interested in local politics. Leaning on the values I was raised with, I wanted to make an impact locally! The United States Constitution and its Bill of Rights forms the core of my principals. Any issue I consider has to pass through the crucible of enhancing individual rights or support for the community free market.With the troubling rise of pointless infighting and corruption found in politics and government, I have come to realize that I can no longer wait for someone else"


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses,click here.


Inflation and the National Debt We urgently need to address Inflation and the National Debt. Americans are in dire straights under the current inflation and the stress on our economy due to the enormous national debt. Without immediate steps to reduce both, we are dooming our younger and future generations. I will fight to make congress pass a budget, one that reduces spending and starts to pay off the debt.


Unconstitutional Wars Our nation can no longer afford all the unconstitutional wars, police actions and worldwide troop deployments. I will fight to return us to the constitutional inclusion of the people, through their representatives, when determining when our troops are put in harm’s way. I will fight to remove the war pigs from Washington.


A voice of reason The leadership of the two big parties concentrate on investigating and indicting each other, leaving little time to take care of our great nation. Leadership of both parties address an agreed upon uni-party agenda and have left their membership behind. We of the rational middle need to take back our country, disband the uni-party and return to the Constitution. I will be a moderator, bringing both sides to the table to find solutions for America.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Montana in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completedBallotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all |Collapse all

Inflation and the National Debt

We urgently need to address Inflation and the National Debt. Americans are in dire straights under the current inflation and the stress on our economy due to the enormous national debt. Without immediate steps to reduce both, we are dooming our younger and future generations. I will fight to make congress pass a budget, one that reduces spending and starts to pay off the debt.

Unconstitutional Wars

Our nation can no longer afford all the unconstitutional wars, police actions and worldwide troop deployments. I will fight to return us to the constitutional inclusion of the people, through their representatives, when determining when our troops are put in harm’s way. I will fight to remove the war pigs from Washington.

A voice of reason

The leadership of the two big parties concentrate on investigating and indicting each other, leaving little time to take care of our great nation. Leadership of both parties address an agreed upon uni-party agenda and have left their membership behind. We of the rational middle need to take back our country, disband the uni-party and return to the Constitution. I will be a moderator, bringing both sides to the table to find solutions for America.
I am most concerned with Policy that addresses Economic Responsibility, Foreign Relations and Limiting Government Growth and Overreach
I look up to the founders of this country and the Classic Liberal philosophers and economists that shaped them. For instance, Thomas Jefferson, Adam Smith and Ludwig Von Mises.
I would like to leave a legacy of Senators that put Montana values first when looking at policy and hope to start a tradition of just that.
My first real job was as a Fire Support Specialist in the US Army. I was responsible for calling in Artillery and Close Air Support for Infantry and Armor units. I served in the US Army for more than a decade.
Yes, I believe that a clear understanding of how policy and laws affect actual people is crucial to Senators. I believe that holding office at a city or county level prior to serving is extremely beneficial as it shows how laws and policy affect real people, it's no longer theoretical at that level.
What do you call a boomerang that does not come back - A stick
It is crucial that we have total financial transparency with the public so they have a realistic view of our economic situation and can then guide their elected officials to execute the will of the people they serve. It is difficult most of the time to see how your congressmen vote, a list of the bill / issue and how each member of the body voted should be published and easier to find. Congressmen should be required to post their schedule to include every entity they speak with so their constituents understand who their elected officials meet with and what they are up to.


Campaign ads

Democratic Party Jon Tester

February 22, 2024
November 10, 2023
November 7, 2023

Republican Party Tim Sheehy

June 26, 2024
June 26, 2024
June 6, 2024


Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, pleaseemail us.

June 9 debate

On June 9, 2024, Sheehy and Tester participated in a debate hosted by the Montana Broadcasters Association at the Fairmont Hot Springs Resort in Anaconda, Montana.

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

Noteworthy endorsements

See also:Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, pleaseclick here.

General election endorsements
EndorserDemocratic Party Jon TesterRepublican Party Tim Sheehy
Government officials
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)  source 
Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R)  source 
State Sen. Terry Vermeire (R)  source 
Individuals
Fmr. Secretary of State, Montana Bob Brown  source 
Fmr. State Rep. Mallerie Stromswold  source 
Former President Donald Trump  source 
Organizations
Democratic Majority for Israel PAC  source 
Montana Rural Voters  source 
Montana Sportsmen Alliance  source 
National Committee To Preserve Social Security & Medicare PAC  source 
National Rifle Association  source 

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also:Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and havemargins of error orcredibility intervals.[13] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[14] For tips on reading polls fromFiveThirtyEight,click here. For tips from Pew,click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation fromFiveThirtyEight andRealClearPolitics, when available.Click here to read aboutFiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2024: general election polls
PollDateDemocratic Party TesterRepublican Party SheehyLibertarian Party DaoudGreen Party DowneyUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size[15]Sponsor[16]
Remington Research GroupJune 29-July 1, 202445%50%5%± 3.1570American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers
Torchlight StrategiesJune 22-26, 202441%47%2%1%9%± 3.9649Common Sense for America (PAC)
Public Opinion StrategiesJune 11-13, 202446%46%2%2%8%± 4.4500Montana Republican Party
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJune 3-5, 202448%48%4%± 4.4500More Jobs, Less Government (super PAC)
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJune 3-5, 202443%46%4%7%± 4.4500More Jobs, Less Government (super PAC)

General election race ratings

See also:Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets:The Cook Political Report,Inside Elections,Sabato's Crystal Ball, andDDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe andSolid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[17]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[18][19][20]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2024
Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2024October 29, 2024October 22, 2024October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The HillLikely RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

NamePartyReceipts*Disbursements**Cash on handDate
Jon TesterDemocratic Party$98,066,476$97,781,426$765,624 As of December 31, 2024
Michael HummertDemocratic Party$7,230$6,485$745 As of December 31, 2024
Brad JohnsonRepublican Party$38,786$35,694$3,092 As of March 31, 2024
Tim SheehyRepublican Party$30,010,525$28,624,278$1,386,246 As of December 31, 2024
Charles A. Walking ChildRepublican Party$0$0$0Data not available***
Robert BarbGreen Party$0$0$0Data not available***
Michael DowneyGreen Party$0$0$0Data not available***
Sid DaoudLibertarian Party$0$0$0Data not available***

Source:Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

*According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
**According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


As of Oct. 28, 2024, the two major party candidates had the third largest difference in terms of total money raised between major party Senate candidates and the fifth largest difference in terms of total spending.Click here to learn more.

Satellite spending

See also:Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees,super PACs, trade associations, and501(c)(4)nonprofit groups.[21][22]

If available, satellite spending reports by theFederal Election Commission (FEC) andOpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[23]

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending,email us.

By candidateBy election

Noteworthy events

Rosendale announces campaign, drops out (2024)

On February 9, 2024, U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) announced he would run for Senate, saying “We’ve made great accomplishments in the House, only to see them die at the hands of Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer in the Senate. Montanans want a Senator that fights for WE, THE PEOPLE, not the D.C. Cartel” in a tweet announcing his candidacy.”[24]

Rosendale withdrew from the race days later, on February 15, 2024, saying “By my calculations, with Trump endorsing my opponent and the lack of resources, the hill was just too steep.”[25]

Shortly after Rosendale announced his candidacy for Senate, Trump endorsed candidateTim Sheehy (R), a business owner and former Navy SEAL who announced his candidacy for Senate in 2023. In a post on Truth Social announcing his endorsement, Trump said “Tim is the candidate who is currently best-positioned to DEFEAT Lazy Jon Tester, and Regain the Republican Majority in the United States Senate. Tim is a Political Outsider, Strong on the Border, the Military/Vets, and our constantly under siege Second Amendment.”[26]

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.


See also:Presidential voting trends in Montana andThe Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Montana, 2024
DistrictIncumbentPartyPVI
Montana's 1stRyan ZinkeEnds.pngRepublicanR+6
Montana's 2ndMatt RosendaleEnds.pngRepublicanR+16


2020 presidential results by 2024 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2024 district lines, Montana[27]
DistrictJoe BidenDemocratic PartyDonald TrumpRepublican Party
Montana's 1st45.3%52.2%
Montana's 2nd35.3%62.2%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections:Solid,Trending,Battleground, andNew. Click [show] on the table below for examples:

County-level voting pattern categories
Democratic
Status201220162020
Solid DemocraticDDD
Trending DemocraticRDD
Battleground DemocraticDRD
New DemocraticRRD
Republican
Status201220162020
Solid RepublicanRRR
Trending RepublicanDRR
Battleground RepublicanRDR
New RepublicanDDR


Following the 2020 presidential election,68.4% of Montanans lived in one of the state's47 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and17.5% lived in one offive Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Montana wasSolid Republican, having voted forMitt Romney (R) in 2012,Donald Trump (R) in 2016, andDonald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Montana following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Montana county-level statistics, 2020
Solid Republican4768.4%
Solid Democratic517.5%
Trending Democratic111.0%
Trending Republican22.5%
Battleground Democratic10.6%
Total voted Democratic729.1%
Total voted Republican4970.9%

Historical voting trends

Montana presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 10Democratic wins
  • 21Republican wins
Year1900190419081912191619201924192819321936194019441948195219561960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020
Winning PartyDRRDDRRRDDDDDRRRDRRRRRRDRRRRRRR

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also:List of United States Senators from Montana

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Montana.

U.S. Senate election results in Montana
RaceWinnerRunner up
202055.0%Republican Party45.0%Democratic Party
201850.3%Democratic Party46.8%Republican Party
201457.8%Republican Party40.1%Democratic Party
201248.6%Democratic Party44.9%Republican Party
200872.9%Democratic Party27.1%Republican Party
Average56.940.8

Gubernatorial elections

See also:Governor of Montana

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Montana.

Gubernatorial election results in Montana
RaceWinnerRunner up
202054.4%Republican Party40.7%Democratic Party
201650.2%Democratic Party48.3%Republican Party
201248.9%Democratic Party47.3%Republican Party
200865.5%Democratic Party32.5%Republican Party
200450.4%Democratic Party46.0%Republican Party
Average53.943.0
See also:Party control of Montana state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Montana's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Montana
PartyU.S. SenateU.S. HouseTotal
Democratic000
Republican224
Independent000
Vacancies000
Total224

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Montana's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Montana, May 2024
OfficeOfficeholder
GovernorRepublican PartyGreg Gianforte
Lieutenant GovernorRepublican PartyKristen Juras
Secretary of StateRepublican PartyChristi Jacobsen
Attorney GeneralRepublican PartyAustin Knudsen

State legislature

Montana State Senate

PartyAs of February 2024
    Democratic Party16
    Republican Party34
    Other0
    Vacancies0
Total 50

Montana House of Representatives

PartyAs of February 2024
    Democratic Party32
    Republican Party68
    Other0
    Vacancies0
Total 100

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year929394959697989900010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222324
GovernorRRRRRRRRRRRRRDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDRRRR
SenateDDDRRRRRRRRRRDDDDRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
HouseDRRRRRRRRRRRRSSRRSSRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

The table below details demographic data in Montana and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.

Demographic Data for Montana
MontanaUnited States
Population1,084,225331,449,281
Land area (sq mi)145,5493,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White86.4%65.9%
Black/African American0.6%12.5%
Asian0.8%5.8%
Native American5.8%0.8%
Pacific Islander0.1%0.2%
Other (single race)1.1%6%
Multiple5.2%8.8%
Hispanic/Latino4.2%18.7%
Education
High school graduation rate94.5%89.1%
College graduation rate34%34.3%
Income
Median household income$66,341$75,149
Persons below poverty level7.3%8.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau,"Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau,"American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the censushere.

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Montana in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, clickhere.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2024
StateOfficePartySignatures requiredSignature formulaFiling feeFiling fee formulaFiling deadlineSource
MontanaU.S. SenateBallot-qualified partyN/AN/A$1,740.001% of annual salary3/11/2024Source
MontanaU.S. SenateUnaffiliated12,6945% of total votes cast for successful candidate in the last general election$1,740.001% of annual salary6/3/2024Source

Election history

The section below details election results for this state's U.S. Senate elections dating back to 2014.

2020

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Montana

IncumbentSteve Daines defeatedSteve Bullock in the general election for U.S. Senate Montana on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Daines
Steve Daines (R)
 
55.0
 
333,174
Image of Steve Bullock
Steve Bullock (D)
 
45.0
 
272,463

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 605,637
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Steve Bullock defeatedJohn Mues andMike Knoles (Unofficially withdrew) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Bullock
Steve Bullock
 
95.5
 
144,949
John Mues
 
2.5
 
3,740
Image of Mike Knoles
Mike Knoles (Unofficially withdrew) Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
3,165

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 151,854
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana

IncumbentSteve Daines defeatedJohn B. Driscoll andDaniel Larson in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Daines
Steve Daines
 
88.0
 
192,942
Image of John B. Driscoll
John B. Driscoll Candidate Connection
 
6.4
 
13,944
Image of Daniel Larson
Daniel Larson
 
5.6
 
12,319

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 219,205
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Watch theCandidate Conversation for this race!

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Wendie Fredrickson defeatedDennis Daneke in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Wendie Fredrickson
Wendie Fredrickson
 
66.4
 
504
Dennis Daneke
 
33.6
 
255

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 759
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Montana

IncumbentJon Tester defeatedMatt Rosendale andRick Breckenridge in the general election for U.S. Senate Montana on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester (D)
 
50.3
 
253,876
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale (R)
 
46.8
 
235,963
Image of Rick Breckenridge
Rick Breckenridge (L)
 
2.9
 
14,545

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 504,384
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2014

On November 4, 2014,Steve Daines (R) won election to theUnited States Senate. He defeatedAmanda Curtis (D) andRoger Roots (L) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2014
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines57.8%213,709
    Democratic Amanda Curtis40.1%148,184
    Libertarian Roger Roots2.1%7,933
Total Votes369,826
Source:Montana Secretary of State



Democratic-held Senate seat in state Trump won

This was one of two Senate seats Democrats were defending in statesDonald Trump (R) won in the2020 presidential election:

Republicans were not defending any Senate seats in statesJoe Biden (D) won in 2020.

2024 battleground elections

See also:Battlegrounds

This was abattleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:

See also

Montana2024 primaries2024 U.S. Congress elections
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Montana congressional delegation
Voting in Montana
Montana elections:
2024202320222021202020192018
Democratic primary battlegrounds
Republican primary battlegrounds
U.S. Senate Democratic primaries
U.S. Senate Republican primaries
U.S. House Democratic primaries
U.S. House Republican primaries
U.S. Congress elections
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
Ballot access

External links

Footnotes

  1. The New York Times, "Montana U.S. Senate Election Results," accessed November 6, 2024
  2. Open Secrets, "Montana’s competitive – and expensive – 2024 Senate race," February 29, 2024
  3. 3.03.1Jon Tester, "About Jon," accessed July 23, 2024
  4. Youtube, "One year ago, I launched this campaign to keep defending Montana. Let's win this thing," February 22, 2024
  5. Jon Tester U.S. Senate, "Meet Jon," accessed July 23, 2024
  6. Youtube, "Big Sandy," November 7, 2023
  7. LinkedIn, "Tim Sheehy," accessed July 23, 2024
  8. USA Today, "Tim Sheehy, Montana Senate candidate, gives remarks at the Republican National Convention," July 16, 2024
  9. Tim Sheehy U.S. Senate, "On the Issues," accessed July 23, 2024
  10. American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/10/2911469/31640/en/Polling-shows-likely-voters-nationally-and-in-battleground-states-solidly-oppose-Biden-Harris-gas-car-ban-and-consider-the-issue-important-for-2024.html," July 10, 2024
  11. Twitter, "MONTANA GE: Torchlight Strategies for Common Sense for America PAC (R)," June 28, 2024
  12. Public Opinion Strategies, "Montana Statewide Poll," June 13, 2024
  13. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from theAmerican Association for Public Opinion Research andIpsos.
  14. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  15. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  16. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  17. Inside Electionsalso usesTiltratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  18. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  19. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  20. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  21. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  22. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  23. Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
  24. Twitter, "Matt Rosendale," accessed February 16, 2024
  25. Politico, "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid — after less than a week," accessed February 16, 2024
  26. Truth Social, "Donald J. Trump," accessed February 16, 2024
  27. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed December 15, 2023


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