United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012
See the full article here:Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2012
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June 5, 2012 |
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November 6, 2012 |
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The2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections inMontana took place onNovember 6, 2012. Voterselected one candidate to serve in theU.S. House fromthe state's At-Large Congressional District.
Steve Daines (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Montana has anopen primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6, 2012.[2]
- See also:Montana elections, 2012
Incumbent: In 2012, Montana's congressional district was an open seat. The incumbent wasDenny Rehberg (R). Rehberg did not run for re-election and instead ran for U.S. Senate against incumbentJon Tester (D).
Montana has a singleAt-Large Congressional District, which is made up of the entirestate.
Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held the one Congressional seat fromMontana.
| Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2012 | After the 2012 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican Party | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 1 | 1 | |
TheCenter for Voting and Democracy (Fairvote)did not make a projection about who would win this seat.[3]
Primary competitiveness
Montana tied with Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, Rhode Island, and Washington for having the most competitive congressional primaries in 2012, with 100% of major party primaries having been contested (2 out of 2). The national average was 54.31%.
Montana's oneU.S. House incumbent did not seek re-election in 2012. Nationwide, 200 out of the 386 incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger (51.81%).
Margin of victory for winners
There was a total of 1 seat up for election in 2012 in Montana. The following table shows the margin of victory for each district winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%.
| District | Winner | Margin of Victory | Total Vote | Top Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana, At-Large, District | Steve Daines | 10.5% | 479,740 | Kim Gillan |
General election candidates
| District | General Election Candidates | Incumbent | 2012 Winner | Partisan Switch? |
| At-large |  Kim GillanSteve Daines David Kaiser | Denny Rehberg | Steve Daines | No |
Candidates
General election candidates
Democratic Primary
- Kim Gillan:25,077state senator[4]
a - Diane Smith:12,618 Businesswoman[5]
- Dave Strohmaier:11,366 Missoula City Council member[6]
- Rob Stutz:2,586 Attorney[7]
- Franke Wilmer:14,836state representative[8]
- Sam Rankin:9,382 Real Estate Broker[9]
- Jason Ward:4,959 Contractor and Farmer[10]
- Kim Gillan:25,077state senator[4]
Republican Primary
- Steve Daines:82,843 Businessman[11]a
- Eric Brosten:21,012 Engineer and Author[12]
- Vincent Melkus:12,420 Student at Colorado Mesa University[13]
- Steve Daines:82,843 Businessman[11]
Libertarian candidate
Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kim Gillan | 42.7% | 204,939 | |
| Republican |  Steve Daines | 53.3% | 255,468 | |
| Libertarian | David Kaiser | 4% | 19,333 | |
| Total Votes | 479,740 | |||
| Source:Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center" | ||||
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Kim Gillan | 31% | 25,077 |
| Diane Smith | 15.6% | 12,618 |
| Dave Strohmaier | 14.1% | 11,366 |
| Rob Stutz | 3.2% | 2,586 |
| Franke Wilmer | 18.4% | 14,836 |
| Sam Rankin | 11.6% | 9,382 |
| Jason Ward | 6.1% | 4,959 |
| Total Votes | 80,824 | |
Republican Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Daines | 71.2% | 82,843 |
| Eric Brosten | 18.1% | 21,012 |
| Vincent Melkus | 10.7% | 12,420 |
| Total Votes | 116,275 | |
Polls
| Gillan vs. Daines | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Kim Gillan | Steve Daines | Other | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Pharos Research Group (October 26-28, 2012) | 44.6% | 51.6% | 0% | 3.8% | +/-3.5 | 799 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012) | 34% | 43% | 10% | 12% | +/-3.6 | 737 | |||||||||||||
| Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012) | 38% | 46% | 2% | 14% | +/-4 | 625 | |||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012) | 37% | 40% | 9% | 15% | +/-3.8 | 656 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 38.4% | 45.15% | 5.25% | 11.2% | +/-3.73 | 704.25 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign donors
Kim Gillan
| Kim Gillan (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[15] | March 31, 2012 | $95,346.99 | $66,592.12 | $(50,732.17) | $111,206.94 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[16] | May 24, 2012 | $111,206.94 | $36,317.76 | $(88,319.32) | $59,205.38 | ||||
| July Quarterly[17] | June 30, 2012 | $59,205.38 | $100,230.21 | $(71,529.93) | $87,905.66 | ||||
| October Quarterly[18] | October 15, 2012 | $87,905.66 | $377,276.33 | $(313,922.45) | $151,259.54 | ||||
| Pre-General[19] | October 25, 2012 | $151,259.54 | $63,638.97 | $(61,302.26) | $153,596.25 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $644,055.39 | $(585,806.13) | ||||||||
Steve Daines
| Steve Daines (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[20] | March 31, 2012 | $630,561.21 | $170,950.63 | $(75,092.52) | $726,419.32 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[21] | May 24, 2012 | $726,419.32 | $71,508.59 | $(54,681.13) | $743,246.78 | ||||
| July Quarterly[22] | June 30, 2012 | $743,246.78 | $173,255.29 | $(63,277.73) | $853,224.34 | ||||
| October Quarterly[23] | October 15, 2012 | $853,224.34 | $488,957.61 | $(985,271.46) | $356,910.49 | ||||
| Pre-General[24] | October 25, 2012 | $356,910.49 | $81,267.50 | $(317,019.35) | $121,158.64 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $985,939.62 | $(1,495,342.19) | ||||||||
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑Politico, "2012 Election Map, Montana," accessed November 7, 2012
- ↑Montana Secretary of State, "Voter Information," accessed July 25, 2012
- ↑, "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Montana," September 2012
- ↑KAJ 18 "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House," June 22, 2011
- ↑Billings Gazette "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race," November 3, 2011
- ↑KPAX 8 "Strohmaier announces run for Congress," June 18, 2011
- ↑KRTV 3 "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House," August 10, 2011
- ↑KRTV 3 "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid," February 1, 2011
- ↑Billings Gazette "Billings real estate agent joins U.S. House race" March 13, 2012
- ↑Great Falls Tribune "Democrats battling GOP dominance for Montana's House seat" March 13, 2012
- ↑KXLF "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race," February 4, 2011
- ↑Missoulian "Eric Brosten biography" March 13, 2012
- ↑The Republic "Ex-Marine, Colorado college student files in Montana to run for Congress" March 13, 2012
- ↑Missoulian "Democrat Rankin announces bid for U.S. House nomination" March 13, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan Pre-Primary," accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan October Quarterly," accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan Pre-General," accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines Pre-Primary," accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines October Quarterly," accessed November 2, 2012
- ↑Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines Pre-General," accessed November 2, 2012
