United States Congress elections, 2018
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On November 6, 2018, 470 seats in theU.S. Congress (35Senate seats and all 435House seats) were up for election. TheDemocratic Party won control of the House, and theRepublican Party retained control of the Senate.
Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than the 23 seats they needed to win control of the House. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled the House with a 235-193 majority (plus seven vacancies).From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Republicans gained a net total of two U.S. Senate seats. Heading into the election, Republicans held 51 seats, Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucused with Democrats. In 2018, Democrats defended 26 seats—two held by independents—while Republicans defended nine seats. Ten Democratic seats were in states that supportedDonald Trump (R) overHillary Clinton (D) in 2016.
On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the 2018 congressional elections:
- Thepartisan breakdown of the U.S. Senate before and after the election;
- An overview of recentpresidential voting trends in states with competitive U.S. Senate and U.S. House races;
- A list of all congressionalbattlegrounds in 2018;
- An overview ofspecial elections in 2017 and 2018.
- An overview of thetop U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraisers;
- Information aboutincumbents not running for re-election; and
- Analaysis of federal elections.
Partisan breakdown
U.S. Senate
In the2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.
| U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 47 | 45 | |
| Republican Party | 51 | 53 | |
| Independent | 2 | 2 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
U.S. House
Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. This was short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 23 seats in 2018 to win partisan control. In 2018, Democrats gained a net total of 40 U.S. House seats, 17 more than they needed.[1]
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 193 | 235 | |
| Republican Party | 235 | 200[2] | |
| Vacancies | 7 | 0 | |
| Total | 435 | 435 | |
Battlegrounds
Battlegrounds were races that Ballotpedia expected to be particularly competitive, interesting, or meaningful to the future balance of power in Congress. Factors that we considered in naming a battleground election included the margins of victory from the previous few congressional elections in the district, how the district voted in the most recent presidential elections, whether a seat was open, if a particularly strong challenger had entered the race, and more.
U.S. Senate
The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.
| Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Winner | Partisan change | Incumbent status |
| Arizona |  Jeff Flake |  Kyrsten Sinema | Yes | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
| California | Dianne Feinstein | Dianne Feinstein | No | Won |
| Florida | Bill Nelson | Rick Scott | Yes | Lost |
| Indiana | Joe Donnelly | Mike Braun | Yes | Lost |
| Minnesota (special) | Tina Smith | Tina Smith | No | Won |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Josh Hawley | Yes | Lost |
| Mississippi (special) | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Cindy Hyde-Smith | No | Won |
| Montana | Jon Tester | Jon Tester | No | Won |
| North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp | Kevin Cramer | Yes | Lost |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez | Bob Menendez | No | Won |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | Martin Heinrich | No | Won |
| Nevada | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Yes | Lost |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Sherrod Brown | No | Won |
| Tennessee | Bob Corker | Marsha Blackburn | No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
| Texas | Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz | No | Won |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Joe Manchin | No | Won |
U.S. House
Ballotpedia identified 82U.S. Housebattleground races: 73Republican seats and nineDemocratic seats. At least 43 of the Republican-held battleground seats were won by Democrats and three of the Democratic-held battleground seats were won by Republicans.The following map identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a district for more detailed information. You can also zoom in for a closer look.
Margin of victory
The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent.
U.S. Senate
- The average margin of victory was 16.8 percent. This is below the 22.1 percent average in2016 and the 22.6 percent average in2014.
- On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 16.8 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 14.3 percent.
- The closest race was inFlorida, where challengerRick Scott (R) defeated incumbentBill Nelson (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.
U.S. House
- The average margin of victory was 30.2 percent. This is below the 36.6 percent average in2016 and the 35.8 percent average in2014.
- On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 36.6 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 22.8 percent.
- The closest race was inGeorgia's 7th Congressional District, where incumbentRob Woodall (R) defeated challengerCarolyn Bourdeaux (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.
| Click [show] to view a list of U.S. House elections sorted by margin of victory | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundraising by candidate
The following charts show the top U.S. House and U.S. Senate fundraisers of the 2017-2018 election cycle based on FEC filings through December 17, 2018.
Fundraising by party
TheRepublican National Committee (RNC) raised over $192 million in 2018 compared to just under $110 million raised by theDemocratic National Committee (DNC) during that same period. The RNC spent almost twice as much during the year as the DNC, with disbursements of over $207.5 million, while the DNC reported spending just under $108 million over the same period. As of the end of 2018, the RNC reported having $23.5 million of cash on hand and no debts owed. The DNC reported having $8.5 million as of the end of the year, with about $5.5 million of debt.
TheDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised almost $191 million in 2018, which is $70 million more than the approximately $121 million raised by theNational Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC). The DCCC raised about $85 million and spent over $141 million during the months of September, October, and November of 2018, while the NRCC raised about $52 million and spent over $96 million during the same period. As of the end of 2018, the DCCC reported having about $5.5 million in cash on hand and almost $19 million of debt, while the NRCC reported a cash balance of $16.5 million with $10.6 million of debt.
TheNational Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) raised over $109.5 million in 2018 while theDemocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) raised over $94 million during the year. The NRSC spent about $117.5 million in 2018 with the DSCC spending approximately $107 million during the same period. Both parties' Senate campaign committees reported having more debt than cash on hand as of December 31, 2018. The NRSC had $7.5 million in cash and $17 million in debt as of that date, with the DSCC reporting just over $6 million in cash and over $21 million in debt at the end of 2018.
| 2018 annual fundraising for party national committees | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organization | Total Receipts | Total Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debts Owed |
| National party committees (through/as of December 31, 2018) | ||||
| DNC | $109,820,208 | $107,882,227 | $8,550,791 | $5,625,873 |
| RNC | $192,326,316 | $207,643,381 | $23,501,561 | $0 |
| House campaign committees (through/as of December 31, 2018) | ||||
| DCCC | $190,962,396 | $224,247,395 | $5,615,496 | $18,943,553 |
| NRCC | $120,768,091 | $147,847,533 | $16,565,198 | $10,600,000 |
| Senate campaign committees (through/as of December 31, 2018) | ||||
| DSCC | $94,294,716 | $107,131,170 | $6,185,158 | $21,079,721 |
| NRSC | $109,652,458 | $117,423,685 | $7,497,936 | $17,000,000 |
- Note: This table summarizes data for 2018 as reported on each committee'sFederal Election Commission (FEC) reports.
Pre-election analysis based on recent election history
The following section compares results from the most recent presidential, gubernatorial, or U.S. House elections that occurred prior to the 2018 elections. These results provided early indications of expected competitive Senate and House elections in 2018.
U.S. Senate
In U.S. Senate elections, recent history showed that the Democratic Party could be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in 2018.
There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent thatDonald Trump won in 2016:
Only one state with a Republican incumbent was won byHillary Clinton in 2016:Nevada.
There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor:
There were no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
There were four states thatBarack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won byDonald Trump in 2016—Florida,Michigan,Pennsylvania, andWisconsin—but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain andRomney) which were won byHillary Clinton in 2016.
U.S. House
Recent electoral history provided early indications of which U.S. House districts could be among the most competitive. The following statistics were compiled using theDaily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data.[3]
- There were 23 House seats held by a Republican incumbent thatHillary Clinton won in 2016:AZ-02,CA-10,CA-21,CA-25,CA-39,CA-45,CA-48,CA-49,CO-06,FL-26,FL-27,IL-06,KS-03,MN-03,NJ-07,NY-24,PA-06,PA-07,TX-07,TX-23,TX-32,VA-10, andWA-08
- There were 12 House seats held by a Democratic incumbent thatDonald Trump won in 2016:AZ-01,IA-02,IL-17,MN-01,MN-07,MN-08,NH-01,NJ-05,NV-03,NY-18,PA-17, andWI-03
- There were 20 House seats thatBarack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 which were won byDonald Trump in 2016:IA-01,IA-02,IA-03,IL-12,IL-17,ME-02,MN-01,MN-02,MN-08,NH-01,NJ-02,NJ-03,NV-03,NY-01,NY-02,NY-18,NY-19,NY-21,PA-17, andWI-03
- There were eight House seats that supported the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain andRomney) which were won byHillary Clinton in 2016:AZ-02,CA-39,CA-45,CA-48,KS-03,NJ-07,TX-07, andTX-32
Candidate breakdown
The plurality of candidates who have filed or otherwise declared congressional runs were Democrats. A full breakdown of candidates by party can be seen below.
Cook Partisan Voter Index
The chart above details the 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for each U.S. House district. The index, developed by Charles Cook of theThe Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. According toPolitico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district."[4][5][6]
Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress
In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:
- Doug Jones (D),U.S. Senate in Alabama;
- Conor Lamb (D),Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District;
- Mary Gay Scanlon (D),Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District; and
- Susan Wild (D),Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District.
| Results of special elections to the 115th Congress | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race | Election date | Incumbent | Winner | Election MOV | Previous election MOV | 2016 Presidential election MOV[7] |
| Kansas' 4th Congressional District | April 11, 2017 | Mike Pompeo | Ron Estes | R+6 | R+31 | R+27 |
| Montana's At-Large Congressional District | May 25, 2017 | Ryan Zinke | Greg Gianforte | R+6 | R+15 | R+21 |
| California's 34th Congressional District | June 6, 2017 | Xavier Becerra | Jimmy Gomez | D+18[8] | D+54[8] | D+73 |
| Georgia's 6th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 | Tom Price | Karen Handel | R+4 | R+24 | R+1 |
| South Carolina's 5th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 | Mick Mulvaney | Ralph Norman | R+3 | R+20 | R+18 |
| Utah's 3rd Congressional District | November 7, 2017 | Jason Chaffetz | John Curtis | R+32 | R+47 | R+24 |
| U.S. Senate in Alabama | December 12, 2017 | Jeff Sessions | Doug Jones | D+2 | R+28 | R+28 |
| Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District | March 13, 2018 | Tim Murphy | Conor Lamb | D+0[9] | R+100 | R+19 |
| Arizona's 8th Congressional District | April 24, 2018 | Trent Franks | Debbie Lesko | R+6 | R+38 | R+21 |
| Texas' 27th Congressional District | June 30, 2018 | Blake Farenthold | Michael Cloud | R+23 | R+24 | R+23 |
| Ohio's 12th Congressional District | August 7, 2018 | Patrick Tiberi | Troy Balderson | R+1 | R+40 | R+11 |
| Michigan's 13th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | John Conyers Jr. | Brenda Jones | D+78 | D+61 | D+61 |
| U.S. Senate in Minnesota | November 6, 2018 | Al Franken | Tina Smith | D+11 | D+10 | D+2 |
| U.S. Senate in Mississippi | November 6, 2018 | Thad Cochran | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+8 | R+22 | R+18 |
| New York's 25th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Louise Slaughter | Joseph Morelle | D+16 | D+12 | D+16 |
| Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Patrick Meehan | Mary Gay Scanlon | D+6 | R+19 | D+2 |
| Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Charlie Dent | Susan Wild | D+0 | R+20 | R+8 |
Comparison of retirements
The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.
| Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | Democrats leaving office early | Republicans leaving office early | Total leaving office early |
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| U.S. House | 18 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 14 | 17 | |
| Total | 18 | 37 | 55 | 4 | 16 | 20 | |
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 24 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[10] | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report
Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.
HIGHLIGHTS
Wave election analysis
- See also:Wave elections (1918-2016)
The termwave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makessignificant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from PresidentWoodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 toDonald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016.We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition toU.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to loseseven seats for 2018 to qualify as awave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016.Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[11] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
| 1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[12] | -7 | R | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
| 1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) | |
Analysis of federal elections, 2018
All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.
| All federal elections: |
| Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report |
| United States Congress elections, 2018 |
| Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018 |
| Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018) |
| List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018 |
| List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018 |
| Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018 |
| Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections |
| Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections |
| Incumbent win rates by state |
| New members elected in 2018 congressional elections |
| Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses |
| Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018 |
| Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018 |
| Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections |
| PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections |
| Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018 |
| Battleground election polls, 2018 |
| Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections |
| Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018 |
| U.S. Senate elections: |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018 |
| United States Senate elections, 2018 |
| Control of the U.S. Senate |
| States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018 |
| U.S. House elections: |
| U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018 |
| United States House of Representatives elections, 2018 |
| Control of the U.S. House |
| U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 |
| U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 |
| U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018 |
Election issues
Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- United States Congress elections, 2016
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
Footnotes
- ↑The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
- ↑One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 whenDan Bishop (R) won thespecial election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showedMark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues.Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
- ↑Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
- ↑Politico, "Charlie Cook's PVI," April 10, 2009
- ↑RedState, "New Cook PVIs Show Big Opportunities for Conservatives in the House," October 11, 2012
- ↑Swing State Project, "Just what is the Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?" November 16, 2008
- ↑Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑8.08.1Both general election candidates were Democrats.
- ↑Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
- ↑Figure includes Sen.Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
- ↑Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
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