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U.S. House battlegrounds, 2014

From Ballotpedia

(Redirected fromU.S. House battleground districts, 2014)

Voters remembered thegovernment shutdown, the trouble surrounding theHealthcare.gov website and other issues as they headed to the polls during2014’s midterm election cycle. From the beginning, tight races were shaping up. Some were truly competitive; others were incorrectly labeled as such. Why? “Battleground Districts” is a title that helps media pull in viewers and readers. It also boosts candidates’ fundraising efforts.

Every campaign cycle, Ballotpedia sifts through the noise and helps readers filter the hype. Leading up to election day, our list of Battleground Districts was based on real numbers and trends. And one trend in particular stood out:Incumbency is king and gerrymandering has left only a few handfuls of districts truly competitive.

In the first edition of Ballotpedia's battleground study, we sought to provides an unfiltered look at the races with the lowest likely margins of victory, as well as those moneymaking districts that raised lots of cash because they were mislabeled Battleground Districts.

SeeThe 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"

The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be competitive in Ballotpedia's study.

Key terms

Margin of victory (MOV)	Moneymaker districts
Margin of victory (MOV) is the measure of the winner's percentage of the vote won in an election (in this case, a House race) minus the runner-up candidate’s percentage of the vote.	A district that is labeled as competitive prior to the election, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher). These districts, often because of the competitive label, raise more money for the campaigns than other districts.

Existing coverage

In 2012, $3,664,141,430 was spent on congressional races, close to $1 billion more than on the presidential race. The average amount the winner of aHouse of Representatives election spent was $1,567,293. The average loser in a general election spent $688,632.This means that the average House race in 2012 cost general election candidates $2,128,629. However, these numbers skyrocket when a campaign is labeledcompetitive.^[1]

The Cook Political Report, edited and published by Charlie Cook, is one of the most respected race rankings, and one we use as a data point for Ballotpedia.Cook classified 85 districts as competitive, or as having the possibility to become competitive, in their last projections before the election. Despite the high number of races that fell under these labels, only 30 races had a margin of victory (MOV) of less than five percent in 2012.^[2]

AlthoughCook is used here as a barometer for outside battleground ratings, we could have easily applied this example to Sabato's Crystal Ball, FairVote Monopoly Politics or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as seen in the final section of this report where wecompare 2014 coverage.

Considering the amount of money spent and focus given to House elections, Ballotpedia desires to provide readers with an aggregation of third party rankings, previous election data and other relevant factors that will provide a more targeted and specific set of districts to watch for during the lead up to the 2014 election.

Below, a comparison is made to both the most expensive House races, the resulting MOV and also the finalCook projection compared to the MOVs.

Political spending versus results

Sarah Rosier interview with Grassroots TV about congressional competitiveness, published in May 2014.

Below are the most expensive House general elections in 2012, according to anOpenSecrets.org study:^[3]

Most expensive races vs. margin of victory
Race	Amount raised	Amount spent	2012 MOV
Florida's 18th Congressional District	$24,111,384	$22,951,644	0.6%
Ohio's 8th Congressional District**	$22,024,288	$21,197,801	98.4%
Minnesota's 6th Congressional District	$17,305,918	$14,225,615	0.8%
California's 33rd Congressional District	$9,879,844	$10,645,394	8%
Virginia's 7th Congressional District**	$8,448,263	$8,278,564	17%
California's 30th Congressional District	$7,886,785	$11,944,794	20.6%
Colorado's 7th Congressional District	$7,814,798	$7,820,465	13.5%
Illinois' 10th Congressional District	$7,612,934	$7,572,654	1.2%
Illinois' 8th Congressional District	$7,320,575	$7,203,706	9.4%
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District**	$7,260,389	$8,901,322	11.5%

**Two of these races were re-election bids by House Republican leadership,John Boehner andEric Cantor, and one was former vice presidential candidatePaul Ryan's campaign for re-election.

This means that only three of the most expensive House races in 2012 were decided by a MOV of five percent or less.

Projections versus results

On November 5, 2012, the day before the 2012 general election,Cook released their final list of 85 competitive districts. The competitive districts were sorted by six categories: "Likely," "Lean" and "Toss Up" predictions for both Democratic and Republican gains.^[4]

Of these competitive districts, 56 had an MOV of five percentage points or above. Of those 56, 29 districts would not have made a competitive MOV cut for Ballotpedia's study, with the winner having led the closest competitor by 10 or more percentage points in 2012. This means 34% ofCook's competitive districts were not actually competitive.

2012 moneymaker districts

What is a "moneymaker district?"

As previously stated, the average House general election cost candidates$2,128,629 in 2012.

What happens when a district that truly is not competitive is classified by the media as competitive?

The cost skyrockets. As outlined below, the 29 least competitive races inCook's competitive ratings cost$101,370,857, which is a total of$39,640,616 more than 29 districts spending the average 2012 election price ($2,128,629) would have cost. In other words, each moneymaker race cost an average of$3,495,546, which is$1,366,917 more than the average 2012 race.

Why?

Media attention. When pundits, political organizations or analysts classify a district as competitive, other outlets begin adding that to the coverage of the race.

An example of this was seen inMaryland's 6th District.

The 6th District was heavily redistricted making a win forRep. Roscoe Bartlett almost statistically impossible. The redistricting process changed the registered partisan breakdown by 59.69%. It left a 29.44% advantage for Democrats in party registration over Republicans.

Despite this, theNational Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC),Cook and others still considered the election between Bartlett andRep. John Delaney to be competitive as of April 2012. After April 2012, the district was still highlighted under their "Competitive Races" headline, but as a "Likely D" race. This attention led to an expensive campaign. Between Barlett and Delaney, the 6th District candidates spent$5,786,640. This was$3,658,011 more than an average 2012 House campaign.

In the end, Delaney won by an extremely comfortable, and non-competitive, MOV of 20.9 percentage points.

The true cost of moneymakers

Moneymaker districts: The 29 districts listed in this chart were considered competitive byCook, but post-election analysis showed they were not competitive (MOV of 10 percentage points and higher).

Cost differential between the moneymaker districts and the average cost of a 2012 House campaign
Districts	Party prior to elec.	Cook PVI	MOV	Cost of 2012 election	Difference from avg. cost
CA-47		D+5	D+13.2	$2,589,871	+$461,242
FL-09		D+4	D+25	$4,782,973	+$2,654,344
IA-01		D+5	D+15.3	$3,738,165	+$1,609,536
IA-02		D+4	D+13.1	$2,512,269	+$383,640
MD-06		D+2	D+20.9	$5,786,640	+$3,658,011
NY-25		D+5	D+14.4	$3,917,121	+$1,788,492
CA-24		D+3	D+10.2	$5,191,080	+$3,062,451
CA-41		D+3	D+18	$2,788,415	+$659,786
CO-07		D+3	D+12.7	$7,820,466	+$5,691,837
FL-26	New district	R+4	D+10.6	$1,778,880	-$349,749
CA-09		D+2	D+11.2	$5,691,934	+$3,563,305
RI-01		D+14	D+12.2	$3,893,267	+$1,764,638
IL-11		D+5	D+17.2	$6,767,995	+$4,639,366
TN-04		R+13	R+11.6	$1,967,129	-$161,500
CO-03		R+4	R+12	$4,178,209	+$2,049,580
IN-08		R+8	R+10.3	$2,368,687	+$240,058
PA-08		D+1	R+13.2	$4,029,335	+$1,900,706
WI-07		EVEN	R+12.3	$3,881,665	+$1,753,036
AR-04		R+9	R+22.8	$2,192,907	+$64,278
CA-21		R+3	R+15.6	$1,280,867	-$847,762
MT-AL		R+7	R+10.6	$3,012,612	+$883,983
NC-11		R+12	R+14.8	$1,818,838	-$309,791
NC-13		R+9	R+13.6	$1,691,856	-$436,773
ND-AL		R+10	R+13.2	$2,310,930	+$182,301
OH-07		R+5	R+12.8	$2,253,069	+$124,440
OK-02		R+14	R+19	$2,882,044	+$753,415
PA-06		R+1	R+14.2	$3,439,974	+$1,311,345
SD-AL		R+9	R+14.8	$3,667,781	+$1,539,152
WI-08		R+2	R+11.9	$3,135,878	+$1,007,249
Total cost				$101,370,857
Total difference between money maker district costs and 2012 average district cost					$39,640,616

$39,640,616 better spent

Although many will argue that political spending in general is unnecessary, even just factoring in the excess cost of moneymaker districts is staggering. As shown above, the difference in cost between moneymaker districts and the average cost of a House elections in 2012 tops $39 million. Here's what $39 million could have bought!

*3,223 families of four could have been fed for a year.^[5]

*1,554 wells in Africa could have been built to service schools and medical clinics.^[6]

Flickr - usaid.africa - Water pump provided by USAID (7).jpg

*A Boys & Girls Club in Whatcom County, WA, could have been funded for full-time operation for 66 years.^[7]

*Educational costs for 1,350DC Public Schools students would have been covered for a year.

*Five of Robert Pattinson's Los Angeles homes could have been purchased, with enough left over to buy 43,600 copies ofTwilight on DVD.^[8]

*Kayne West could have purchased 31 rings similar to Kim Kardashian's new bling.^[9]

Ballotpedia's five criteria for “most competitive”

A district must have met one or more of the following criteria:

1. If a district had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential, and incumbent years in office) and four were of the most competitive nature, purple, they automatically made the cut.

Nineteen districts fit in this category.

2. The district was considered competitive if it had all six quantifiable predictions/results highlighted (Cook, Fairvote, MOV, 2012 presidential, 2008 presidential and incumbent years in office) with three of the highlighted factors being most competitive (purple) and two being intermediate competitive (orange). The district must also have had a “special factor” (high outside spending, redistricting) to be added to the most competitive list.

Two districts fit into this category.

3.Anomalies: This included Republicans or Democrats in a district that otherwise trended heavily toward the other party. The district must also have had some other qualifying factor, such as an MOV of ten percent or less, an incumbent who had served less than ten years or a competitive 2014 candidate. BothUtah's 4th Congressional District andNorth Carolina's 7th Congressional District were examples of this before Reps.Jim Matheson andMike McIntyre announced their retirements.

One district fits into this category.

4.Presidential differences: A district that may not have had all the categories highlighted, but voted for the other party in the most recent presidential election and the numbers were tight for the incumbent (redistricting was also factored in here).

One district was considered “Most Competitive” based only on this factor.

5.Recent effects of redistricting: This was relevant to three districts (IL-12, IL-13 and MN-08). Redistricting in the past three years caused these districts to be extremely tight and had the opportunity for a very close midterm election (the first midterm cycle these new districts will be going through).

Three districts were pushed into the most competitive list because of this, just missing meeting the other criteria listed above.

The 26 "Most Competitive Districts in 2014"

Color Key
Color	Cook Partisan Voting Index	Fairvote (Projected D%)	Margin of Victory (MOV)	2012 Presidential MOV % %	2008 Presidential MOV %	Incumbent years in office
Purple- most competitive	Even; R or D 0-4	45.1% - 54.9%	0-4.9	0-4.9	0-4.9	0 - 4
Orange- very competitive	R or D 5-7	42.1% - 45.0%; 55% - 57.9%	5.0-7.9	5.0-7.9	5.0-7.9	5 - 7
Green- competitive	R or D 8-10	40.0% - 42.0%; 58% - 60%	8.0-10.00	8.0-10.00	8.0-10.00	8 - 10
House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the House winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the district in 2012
Districts labeled this color indicate the districts that were pushed into most competitive based on heavily redrawn congressional districts

Most competitive districts for 2014 elections
Congressional district	Battleground label	Cook PVI	Fairvote (Projected D%)	Margin of Victory (MOV) in 2012	2012 Presidential MOV %	2008 Presidential MOV %	Incumbent years in office	2012 House winner	Campaign contributions difference	Cost per vote for winner in 2012
Arizona's 1st	Battleground D	R+4	48%	3.6	-2.5	-3.2	0	Democratic	61.38%	$19.13
Arizona's 2nd	Battleground D	R+3	50.9%	0.8	-1.5	-0.9	0	Democratic	65.57%	$18.85
Arizona's 9th	Battleground D	R+1	51%	4.1	✓4.5	✓3.9	0	Democratic	64.44%	$17.78
California's 7th	Battleground D	EVEN	51.4%	3.4	✓4	✓5	0	Democratic	57.34%	$25.72
California's 21st	Battleground R	D+2	50.9%	15.5	✓11.1	✓6	0	Republican	91.39%	$19.59
California's 36th	Battleground D	R+1	51.2%	5.9	✓3.2	✓3	0	Democratic	46.67%	$17.94
California's 52nd	Battleground D	D+2	52.3%	2.4	✓6.4	✓12	0	Democratic	62.23%	$28.93
Colorado's 6th	Battleground R	D+1	45.1%	2	✓5.1	✓8.7	4	Republican	66.81%	$20.99
Florida's 18th	Battleground D	R+3	47.7%	0.6	-4.1	✓3.1	0	Democratic	19.70%	$28.58
Florida's 26th	Battleground D	R+1	53.1%	10.6	✓6.7	-0.4	0	Democratic	69.59%	$10.28
Illinois' 12th	Battleground D	EVEN	50.1%	8.9	✓1.5	✓11.1	0	Democratic	46.64%	$7.52
Illinois' 13th	Battleground R	EVEN	47.2%	0.3	-0.3	✓11	0	Republican	51.38%	$10.22
Michigan's 1st	Battleground R	R+5	45.1%	0.5	-8.3	✓1.3	2	Republican	59.74%	$13.30
Minnesota's 8th	Battleground D	D+1	52.4%	8.9	✓5.5	✓8.6	0	Democratic	34.52%	$6.52
Nevada's 3rd	Battleground R	EVEN	44.2%	7.5	✓0.8	✓8.9	2	Republican	61.24%	$17.66
New Hampshire's 1st	Battleground D	R+1	50.4%	3.8	✓1.6	✓6.4	0	Democratic	47.47%	$10.02
New Jersey's 2nd	Battleground R	D+1	40.2%	17.4	✓8.1	✓7.7	18	Republican	96.60%	$9.40
New Jersey's 3rd	Battleground R	R+1	44.8%	8.9	✓4.6	✓3.4	2	Republican	66.17%	$11.94
New York's 1st	Battleground D	R+2	51.3%	4.6	✓0.5	✓3	10	Democratic	54.54%	$18.81
New York's 11th	Battleground R	R+2	46.1%	5	✓4.3	-3	2	Republican	70.91%	$21.96
New York's 18th	Battleground D	EVEN	51.5%	3.7	✓4.3	✓5	0	Democratic	40.94%	$15.69
New York's 21st	Battleground D	EVEN	51.5%	1.9	✓6.1	✓5	4	Democratic	50.05%	$15.54
New York's 23rd	Battleground R	R+3	45.6%	3.6	-1.2	✓1	3	Republican	71.76%	$15.31
Texas' 23rd	Battleground D	R+3	48.7%	4.8	-2.6	✓1	0	Democratic	39.93%	$18.65
Virginia's 2nd	Battleground R	R+2	43.4%	7.7	✓1.5	✓1.7	2	Republican	54.38%	$14.42
West Virginia's 3rd	Battleground D	R+14	50.4%	7.1	-32.2	-13.4	20	Democratic	69.55%	$13.26

Cook's PVI is Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index.^[10]
FairVote's %D is FairVote.org's 2014 congressional election projections.^[11]

According to our study, only 16 states had one or more competitive districts in 2014.

Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

Will the battlegrounds change?

Ballotpedia's team carefully monitored all districts to see if a factor, such as an incumbent retiring, caused the district to become competitive. Barring large factors such as a retirement or death, our competitive list remained static. The changes were recorded below.

October 2013

Florida's 13th Congressional District

This district was not on our most competitive list until late October 2013. The late Rep.Bill Young consistently received high MOVs (15.1% points in 2012) and enjoyed a 42 year incumbency. However, with the announcement of his retirement and, subsequently, his passing, the race became competitive due to the recent presidential election results and the gradual change in make-up of the district.

June 2014 Removal

Although the special election that took place in early 2014 garnered national attention and only a slim margin of victory for current-Rep.David Jolly, when it came time for the candidacy filing deadline for the midterm elections, only Jolly and two third-party candidates filed. Without the possible rematch of Jolly versusAlex Sink (D), or another candidate with major-party backing, Ballotpedia no longer considered this a battleground race.

December 2013

Utah's 4th Congressional District

Utah's 4th District was considered by nearly all pundits and political enthusiasts as one of the most competitive races for the 2014 elections. However, when Rep.Jim Matheson announced his retirement on December 17, 2013, the district swung into safe Republican territory. Matheson, first elected to the House in 2000, won a razor thing re-election in 2012 (he won by 768 votes) and was facing a more and more Republican constituency (Mitt Romney won the district by an MOV of 37 percentage points).

January 2014

North Carolina's 7th Congressional District

Similar toUtah's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th District was considered one of the most competitive districts in the country. Rep.Mike McIntyre narrowly won re-election in 2012. Only 654 votes separated McIntyre fromDavid Rouzer (R). McIntyre was facing a possible rematch against Rouzer in 2014 in a district that has become more conservative each year. His retirement at the end of this term all but guaranteed a Republican pick-up of the seat.

July 2014

California's 10th Congressional District andCalifornia's 52nd Congressional District

California's 10th Congressional District was removed from the battleground list, while California's 52nd District was added to take its place. Race ratings and FEC reports showed that the 10th District was not as competitive as it was originally predicted to be. It was instead likely to be won by Republican incumbentJeff Denham.

On the other hand, the 52nd District was shaping up to be very competitive in 2014. The district appeared to have a very slight Democratic lean, but Republican candidates secured nearly 58 percent of the primary vote. This pointed to incumbentScott Peters (D) facing a difficult re-election bid against challengerCarl DeMaio (R) in November.

How will this shape our coverage?

With a targeted focus of these 26 districts heading into 2014, the Ballotpedia team strived provide readers with comprehensive information on these elections, above and beyond our normal election coverage.

Beginning in January, Ballotpedia released one in-depth look at each competitive district every week.

However, for the 406 districts that did not receive a competitive label, the readers still saw the same coverage they expected from Ballotpedia.

Battleground badges

To quickly alert readers to the hot races of 2014, the Congress Project developed "battleground badges" that signified the races to pay attention to.

If you saw this badge on a district page, it meant that you were on one of the 26 House races, or a particularly close Senate race, that Ballotpedia would be monitoring.

When you spotted this badge added by the Congress Project, it indicated that the race would be close, but the statistics illustrated that it would not be as close as a battleground race.

Our goals for this study

Ballotpedia hoped this study allowed you, as a reader and voter, to focus your resources (whether it be your time or your money) on the truly competitive districts.
We hoped that our readers would look past the hype and be able to quickly and effectively determine what districts were deserving of attention.

2014 results

State	Before		After
State	Incumbent	Party	Winner	Winner Party	District Party Change?
Arizona's 1st District	Ann Kirkpatrick		Ann Kirkpatrick		No
Arizona's 2nd District	Ron Barber		Martha McSally		Yes
Arizona's 9th District	Kyrsten Sinema		Kyrsten Sinema		No
California's 7th District	Ami Bera		Ami Bera		No
California's 21st District	David Valadao		David Valadao		No
California's 36th District	Raul Ruiz		Raul Ruiz		No
California's 52nd District	Scott Peters		Scott Peters		No
Colorado's 6th District	Mike Coffman		Mike Coffman		No
Florida's 18th District	Patrick Murphy		Patrick Murphy		No
Florida's 26th District	Joe Garcia		Carlos Curbelo		Yes
Illinois' 12th District	William Enyart		Mike Bost		Yes
Illinois' 13th District	Rodney Davis		Rodney Davis		No
Michigan's 1st District	Dan Benishek		Dan Benishek		No
Minnesota's 8th District	Rick Nolan		Rick Nolan		No
Nevada's 3rd District	Joe Heck		Joe Heck		No
New Hampshire's 1st District	Carol Shea-Porter		Frank Guinta		Yes
New Jersey's 2nd District	Frank LoBiondo		Frank LoBiondo		No
New Jersey's 3rd District	Jon Runyan*		Tom MacArthur		No
New York's 1st District	Tim Bishop		Lee Zeldin		Yes
New York's 11th District	Michael Grimm		Michael Grimm		No
New York's 18th District	Sean Maloney		Sean Maloney		No
New York's 21st District	Bill Owens*		Elise Stefanik		Yes
New York's 23rd District	Tom Reed		Tom Reed		No
Texas' 23rd District	Pete Gallego		Will Hurd		Yes
Virginia's 2nd District	Scott Rigell		Scott Rigell		No
West Virginia's 3rd District	Nick Rahall		Evan Jenkins		Yes

"*" indicates that the incumbent retired in 2014.

Upsets

Non-battleground district upsets included:

District	Before		After
District	Incumbent	Party	Winner	Winner Party
California's 31st District	Gary Miller (Retired)		Pete Aguilar
Florida's 2nd District	Steve Southerland		Gwen Graham
Georgia's 12th District	John Barrow		Rick Allen
Illinois' 10th District	Brad Schneider		Robert J. Dold
Iowa's 1st District	Bruce Braley (Ran for Senate)		Rod Blum
Maine's 2nd District	Mike Michaud (Ran for governor)		Bruce Poliquin
Nebraska's 2nd District	Lee Terry		Brad Ashford
Nevada's 4th District	Steven Horsford		Cresent Hardy
New York's 24th District	Dan Maffei		John Katko

Expected seat changes

These are districts where a change in party was expected due to a very vulnerable incumbent. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

District	Before		After
District	Incumbent	Party	Winner	Winner Party
North Carolina's 7th District	Mike McIntyre (Retiring)		David Rouzer
Utah's 4th District	Jim Matheson (Retiring)		Mia Love
West Virginia's 3rd District	Nick Rahall		Evan Jenkins

Other initial 2014 predictions and targets

Cook Political Report

Cook Political Report had 76 districts labeled ascompetitive.

    Likely Democratic
    Lean Democratic
    D Tossup

    R Tossup
    Lean Republican
    Likely Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- 2014 U.S. House Competitive Districts
Month	Likely D	Lean D	D Tossup	R Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Total D	Total R	Total Competitive races
August 8, 2013^[12]	14	16	8	1	11	17	28	29	57
September 5, 2013^[13]	14	15	9	1	11	17	38	29	67
October 21, 2013^[14]	14	15	9	1	11	17	36	34	70
October 30, 2013^[15]	12	15	10	2	16	16	37	34	71
December 18, 2013^[16]	14	14	10	4	15	15	38	34	72
January 7, 2014^[17]	14	15	10	4	16	16	39	36	75
January 15, 2014^[18]	14	14	11	4	16	18	39	38	77
February 13, 2014^[19]	14	13	11	4	16	18	38	38	76
March 13, 2014^[20]	15	13	11	3	16	18	39	37	76
April 4, 2014^[21]	15	13	11	3	17	19	39	39	78
June 26, 2014^[22]	16	14	11	2	16	18	41	36	77
August 8, 2014^[23]	15	13	13	3	9	17	41	29	70
September 19, 2014^[24]	14	13	11	4	8	18	38	30	68
October 22, 2014^[25]	11	14	13	5	6	15	38	26	64

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Larry Sabato'sCrystal Ball projections labeled 66 races ascompetitive.

    Likely Democratic
    Lean Democratic
    D Tossup

    R Tossup
    Lean Republican
    Likely Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. House
Month	Likely D	Lean D	D Tossup	R Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Total D	Total R	Total Competitive races
October 23, 2013^[26]	7	20	5	3	15	12	32	30	62
December 17, 2013^[27]	8	19	5	6	14	14	32	34	66
January 7, 2014^[28]	8	19	5	7	14	14	32	35	67
March 12, 2014^[29]	10	15	7	5	14	15	32	34	66
March 31, 2014^[30]	10	15	7	5	15	16	32	36	68
August 6, 2014^[31]	9	13	10	3	11	16	32	30	62

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2014

According to the 2014 national house election projections, there were:^[32]

201 Safe Republican districts
18 Likely Republican districts
21 Tossup districts
15 Likely Democratic districts
151 Safe Democratic districts

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Between their Frontline Program, designed to help vulnerable incumbents win re-elections, and their Jumpstart Program, which provides early support to candidates in competitive districts, theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted 42 races with their resources.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Frontline Program
District	Incumbent	Result
Arizona's 2nd District	Ron Barber	d
Georgia's 12th District	John Barrow	d
California's 7th District	Ami Bera
New York's 1st District	Tim Bishop	d
California's 26th District	Julia Brownley
Illinois' 17th District	Cheri Bustos
California's 24th District	Lois Capps
Washington's 1st District	Suzan DelBene
Illinois' 12th District	Bill Enyart	d
Connecticut's 5th District	Elizabeth Esty
Texas' 23rd District	Pete Gallego	d
Florida's 26th District	Joe Garcia	d
Arizona's 1st District	Ann Kirkpatrick
New Hampshire's 2nd District	Ann McLane Kuster
New York's 18th District	Sean Patrick Maloney
New York's 24th District	Dan Maffei	d
Utah's 4th District	Jim Matheson	d
North Carolina's 7th District	Mike McIntyre	d
Florida's 18th District	Patrick Murphy
New York's 21st District	Bill Owens	d
California's 52nd District	Scott Peters
California's 36th District	Raul Ruiz
Illinois' 10th District	Brad Schneider	d
New Hampshire's 1st District	Carol Shea-Porter	d
Arizona's 9th District	Kyrsten Sinema
Massachusetts' 6th District	John Tierney
West Virginia's 3rd District	Nick Rahall	d

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Jumpstart Program
District	Challenger	Incumbent	Result
California's 10th District	Michael Eggman	Jeff Denham	d
California's 31st District	Pete Aguilar	Gary Miller
Colorado's 6th District	Andrew Romanoff	Mike Coffman	d
Florida's 2nd District	Gwen Graham	Steve Southerland
Illinois' 13th District	Ann Callis	Rodney Davis	d
Iowa's 3rd District	Staci Appel	Tom Latham	d
Michigan's 1st District	Jerry Cannon	Dan Benishek	d
Michigan's 7th District	Pam Byrnes	Tim Walberg	d
Montana's at-large District	John Lewis	Max Baucus	d
Nevada's 3rd District	Erin Bilbray-Kohn	Joe Heck	d
New Mexico's 2nd District	Roxanne Lara	Steve Pearce	d
New York's 11th District	Domenic Recchia	Michael Grimm	d
New York's 23rd District	Martha Robertson	Tom Reed	d
Ohio's 6th District	Jennifer Garrison	Bill Johnson	d
Pennsylvania's 8th District	Kevin Strouse	Michael Fitzpatrick	d
Virginia's 2nd District	Suzanne Patrick	Scott Rigell	d

National Republican Congressional Committee

The National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC) Patriot Program was the counterpart of the DCCC's Frontline Program and was designed to assist vulnerable incumbents in their re-election bids. The following table lists the members of the Patriot Program in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program, 2014
District	Incumbent	Result
Michigan's 1st District	Dan Benishek
Colorado's 6th District	Mike Coffman
Illinois' 13th District	Rodney Davis
California's 10th District	Jeff Denham
Pennsylvania's 8th District	Michael G. Fitzpatrick
New York's 19th District	Chris Gibson
New York's 11th District	Mike Grimm
Nevada's 3rd District	Joe Heck
Ohio's 6th District	Bill Johnson
Florida's 13th District	David Jolly
Ohio's 14th District	David Joyce
New York's 23rd District	Tom Reed
Virginia's 2nd District	Scott Rigell
Florida's 2nd District	Steve Southerland II	d
California's 21st District	David G. Valadao
Michigan's 7th District	Tim Walberg
Indiana's 2nd District	Jackie Walorski

NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents were targeted by the NRCC in 2014.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
District	Targeted incumbent	November 4 Results
Arizona's 1st District	Ann Kirkpatrick	Ann Kirkpatrick
Arizona's 2nd District	Ron Barber	Pending
Georgia's 12th District	John Barrow	Rick Allen
Minnesota's 7th District	Collin Peterson	Collin Peterson
North Carolina's 7th District	Mike McIntyre	David Rouzer
Utah's 4th District	Jim Matheson	Mia Love
West Virginia's 3rd District	Nick Rahall	Evan Jenkins

Footnotes

v • e 2013-2014 Elections to theUnited States Congress

Senate by State	Alabama •Alaska •Arkansas •Colorado •Delaware •Georgia •Illinois •Idaho •Iowa •Kansas •Kentucky •Louisiana •Maine •Massachusetts •Michigan •Minnesota •Mississippi •Montana •Nebraska •New Hampshire •New Jersey •New Mexico •North Carolina •Oklahoma •Oregon •Rhode Island •South Carolina •South Dakota •Tennessee •Texas •Virginia •West Virginia •Wyoming

House by State	Alabama •Alaska •Arizona •Arkansas •California •Colorado •Connecticut •Delaware •Florida •Georgia •Hawaii •Idaho •Illinois •Indiana •Iowa •Kansas •Kentucky •Louisiana •Maine •Maryland •Massachusetts •Michigan •Minnesota •Mississippi •Missouri •Montana •Nebraska •Nevada •New Hampshire •New Jersey •New Mexico •New York •North Carolina •North Dakota •Ohio •Oklahoma •Oregon •Pennsylvania •Rhode Island •South Carolina •South Dakota •Tennessee •Texas •Utah •Vermont •Virginia •Washington •West Virginia •Wisconsin •Wyoming

Senate Special Elections	Hawaii (2014) •Massachusetts (2013) •New Jersey (2013) •South Carolina (2014)

House Special Elections	Illinois' 2nd District (2013) •Missouri's 8th District (2013) •South Carolina's 1st District (2013) •Alabama's 1st District (2013) •Louisiana's 5th District (2013) •Massachusetts' 5th District (2013) •Florida's 13th District (2014)

Election information	Ballot access for major and minor party candidates •List of candidates running for election •List of congressional challengers •Congressional incumbents not running for re-election •Filing deadlines and primary dates •Elected Officials Running for a Different office •Contested primaries •Contested Primaries Analysis •Official Lists of Candidates •Election Results

Super PACs/Organizations	American Bridge 21st Century •American Crossroads •American Unity PAC •Campaign for Primary Accountability •Club for Growth Action •Congressional Leadership Fund •Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee•Crossroads Generation •Ending Spending Action Fund •Endorse Liberty •Fair Share Action •FreedomWorks for America •Government Integrity Fund •House Majority PAC •Independence USA Fund •League of Conservation Voters •Liberty for All PAC •Majority PAC •National Association of Realtors •NEA Advocacy Fund •Now or Never PAC •Planned Parenthood Votes •Ready for Hillary •Republicans for a Prosperous America •Restore America's Voice PAC •SEIU Pea-Federal •Women Vote!

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