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State legislative elections, 2019

From Ballotpedia
2019 State
Legislative Elections
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2019 elections
LouisianaMississippiNew JerseyVirginia
2019 special elections
2019 Elections
Choose a chamber below:

Contents


On November 5, 2019,Democrats won majorities in theVirginia State Senate and theVirginia House of Delegates, while holding their majority in theNew Jersey General Assembly. The victories in Virginia made the state a Democraticstate government trifecta.Republicans held their majorities in theMississippi State Senate and theMississippi House of Representatives.

Seven of the country's99 state legislative chambers held regular elections in 2019. These seven chambers represented 538 of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats (7.3%). This page contains information about regularly scheduled state legislative elections;click here to read about state legislative special elections in 2019.

Heading into the November 2019 general elections,Republicans held six of the seven chambers and 292 of the 538 seats (54.3%).Democrats held one chamber and 240 seats (44.6%).[1] Overall, Republicans controlled 61 of 99 legislative chambers (61.6%) and 3,863 of 7,383 state legislative seats (52.3%). Democrats controlled 37 chambers (37.4%) and 3,467 seats (47.0%).[2]

Click on the links below to navigate to election pages for each chamber.

General elections inMississippi,New Jersey, andVirginia took place onNovember 5, 2019. Louisiana also held a primary election on October 12, where candidates could win an election outright. In cases where no candidate won the primary outright, general elections inLouisiana took place onNovember 16, 2019.Louisiana andMississippi held gubernatorial elections in 2019 as well.

These were the final elections in each of these state legislatures before the 2020 redistricting process. The legislators elected in 2019 will be responsible for the redistricting scheduled to occur after the 2020 census.

ABallotpedia analysis oftrifecta vulnerability in 2019 found the following:

  • Louisiana (Divided government) had a slight chance of becoming a Republican trifecta and a low chance of becoming a Democratic trifecta.
  • Mississippi (Republican trifecta) was a moderately vulnerable Republican trifecta.
  • New Jersey (Democratic trifecta) was a non-vulnerable Democratic trifecta.
  • Virginia (Divided government) had a moderate chance of becoming a Democratic trifecta and a moderate chance of remaining under divided government.

Read the analysis here.

Keep reading to learn more about:

Flipped chambers in the 2019 elections

This table lists state legislative chambers where party control changed as a result of the November 5, 2019, elections.

Flipped state legislative chambers, 2019 elections
StateChamberPre-election controlPost-election control
VirginiaSenateRepublicansRepublican PartyDemocratsDemocratic Party
VirginiaHouseRepublicansRepublican PartyDemocratsDemocratic Party

Change in seats

Across the chambers holding legislative elections in 2019, Democrats gained one seat and Republicans gained 12 seats. The charts below show the total change and the change broken down by chamber type. The "other/3rd parties" category includes vacant seats.

Change in state legislative partisan composition, 2019 elections
TotalBeforeAfterNet
DemocratsDemocratic Party236237+1
RepublicansRepublican Party286298+12
Other/3rd partiesGrey.png163-13
Total538538--


Change in state senate partisan composition, 2019 elections
TotalBeforeAfterNet
DemocratsDemocratic Party5149-2
RepublicansRepublican Party7682+6
Other/3rd partiesGrey.png40-4
Total131131--


Change in state house partisan composition, 2019 elections
TotalBeforeAfterNet
DemocratsDemocratic Party185188+3
RepublicansRepublican Party210216+6
Other/3rd partiesGrey.png123-9
Total407407--

State government trifectas

See also:Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government

Heading into the 2019 state legislative elections, Mississippi was a Republican trifecta, New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, and Louisiana and Virginia were both under divided government. Kentucky was also a Republican trifecta but only held a gubernatorial election. The 2019 elections resulted in one additional Democratic trifecta and one fewer Republican trifecta—Virginia became a Democratic trifecta, while Kentucky became under divided government.

Atrifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:

The concept of thetrifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader, and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.

Heading into the 2019 elections,36 states were controlled by a trifecta. States with a trifecta included:

  • Democratic Party 14 Democratic trifectas
  • Republican Party 22 Republican trifectas

As a result of the 2019 elections, there were 21 Republican trifectas and 15 Democratic trifectas.

Elections by state

Elections are being held for seven legislative chambers in the following four states:

State legislative special elections were also held in 2019.Click here to read more.

Elections summary

State legislative chambers up in 2019
ChambersSeats upPost-election partisan controlTerm lengthTerm limits?
Louisiana SenateAll 39Republican Party 27-124 yearsYes (3 terms)
Louisiana HouseAll 105Republican Party 68-354 yearsYes (3 terms)
Mississippi SenateAll 52Republican Party 36-164 yearsNo
Mississippi HouseAll 122Republican Party 75-464 yearsNo
New Jersey General AssemblyAll 80Democratic Party 52-282 yearsNo
Virginia SenateAll 40Democratic Party 21-194 yearsNo
Virginia HouseAll 100Democratic Party 55-452 yearsNo

Louisiana

Louisiana's state legislators serve four-year terms. Both chambers have term limits which prevent a state legislator from serving for more than three terms, or twelve years, in a particular chamber. Louisiana legislators assume office at noon on the second Monday in January after their election.[3][4]

TheLouisiana State Senate and theLouisiana House of Representatives last held elections in 2015.

  • Candidate filing deadline: August 8, 2019
  • Jungle primary election: October 12, 2019
  • General election:[5] November 16, 2019

State Senate

See also:Louisiana State Senate elections, 2019

Louisiana State Senate Party Control

Louisiana State Senate
PartyAs of November 16, 2019After November 17, 2019
    Democratic Party1412
    Republican Party2527
Total3939
Click here to see the results of Louisiana's state senate races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2015, partisan control of the Louisiana State Senate shifted from being heavily Democratic to a Republican majority. Democrats went from having a 27-seat advantage following the 1991 elections to being at an 11-seat disadvantage after the 2015 elections. The table below shows the partisan history of the Louisiana State Senate following every general election from 1991 to 2015. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Louisiana State Senate election results: 1991-2015

Party91959903071115
Democrats33252724241514
Republicans6141215152425

Democrats maintained control of the Louisiana State Senate from 1991 to 2011 but their majority steadily decreased. Senate Democrats held their largest majority following the 1991 elections when Democrats held a 27-seat advantage. Throughout the period, Democrats usually controlled between 24 and 33 seats, while Republicans controlled between 6 and 15 seats. Democrats also held more than the 26 seats required to override a gubernatorial veto from 1991 to 1994 and again from 2000 to 2003.

As a result of party switches and special elections, Republicans gained control of the chamber in February 2011.[6][7] The last time Republicans controlled the Senate prior to 2011 was during post-Civil War Reconstruction. For the first time in the state's modern history, Republicans controlled both chambers of the legislature and the governor's office at the same time. Republicans had atrifecta in the state from 2011 to 2015.[8] Heading into the 2011 elections, Republicans held a 22-17 majority. Republicans gained two seats in the election, giving them a 24-15 majority. Republicans gained one seat in the 2015 elections, giving them a 25-14 majority. The Republican gains from 2011 to 2015 were in line with a national trend toward Republican state legislatures during the presidency ofBarack Obama (D). From 2009 to 2017, Democrats experiencedlosses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats all together.

State House

See also:Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2019

Louisiana House of Representatives Party Control

Louisiana House of Representatives
PartyAs of November 16, 2019After November 17, 2019
    Democratic Party3935
    Republican Party6068
    Independent52
    Vacancy10
Total105105
Click here to see the results of Louisiana's state house races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2015, partisan control of the Louisiana House of Representatives shifted from being heavily Democratic to a Republican majority. Democrats went from having a 69-seat advantage following the 1991 elections to being at a 19-seat disadvantage after the 2015 elections. The table below shows the partisan history of the Louisiana House of Representatives following every general election from 1991 to 2015. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Louisiana House of Representatives election results: 1991-2015

Party91959903071115
Democrats86767568534542
Republicans17283036505861
Other2101222

Democrats maintained control of the Louisiana House of Representatives from 1991 to 2010 but their majority steadily decreased. House Democrats held their largest majority following the 1991 election when Democrats held a 69-seat advantage. Throughout the period, Democrats usually controlled between 53 and 86 seats, while Republicans controlled between 17 and 50 seats. Democrats also held more than the 70 seats required to override a gubernatorial veto from 1991 to 2002.

As a result of party switches and special elections, Republicans gained control of the chamber in December 2010. Prior to the party switches, the last time Republicans controlled the House was during post-Civil War Reconstruction.[9] Heading into the 2011 election, Republicans held a 57-46 majority with two independent members. Republicans gained one seat in the election, giving them a 58-45 majority with two independent members. Republicans gained three seats in the 2015 election, giving them a 61-42 majority with two independent members. The Republican gains from 2011 to 2015 were in line with a national trend toward Republican state legislatures during the presidency ofBarack Obama (D). From 2009 to 2017, Democrats experiencedlosses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats all together.

Mississippi

Mississippi's state legislators serve four-year terms. Mississippi legislators assume office the Tuesday after the first Monday of January.[10]

TheMississippi State Senate and theMississippi House of Representatives last held elections in 2015.

  • Candidate filing deadline: March 1, 2019
  • Primary election: August 6, 2019
  • Primary runoff election: August 27, 2019
  • General election: November 5, 2019

State Senate

See also:Mississippi State Senate elections, 2019

Mississippi State Senate Party Control

Mississippi State Senate
PartyAs of November 5, 2019After November 6, 2019
    Democratic Party1816
    Republican Party3136
    Vacancies30
Total5252
Click here to see the results of Mississippi's state senate races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2015, partisan control of the Mississippi State Senate shifted from being heavily Democratic to a Republican majority. Democrats went from having a 26-seat advantage following the 1991 elections to being at a 12-seat disadvantage after the 2015 elections. The rapid partisan change in the chamber coincided with the American South's shift from over a century of Democratic dominance to being solid Republican in the early 21st century. The table below shows the partisan history of the Mississippi State Senate following every general election from 1991 to 2015. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Mississippi State Senate election results: 1991-2015

Party91959903071115
Democrats39343427282120
Republicans13181824243132
Other0001000

From 1991 to 2006, Senate Democrats controlled the Mississippi State Senate. Democrats had their largest majority following the 1991 election when Democrats had a 26-member majority. In 2007, two Democratic membersswitched their party affiliation to Republican, giving Republicans a 27-25 majority. This was their first majority in the Senate since Reconstruction.[11] Democrats rebounded in the 2007 elections and held a 28-24 majority until state Sen.Nolan Mettetalswitched his party affiliation from Democratic to Republican in 2008. This gave Democrats a 27-25 majority.[12][13]

Prior to the 2011 elections, state senatorsCindy Hyde-Smith andEzell Lee switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican in 2010 and 2011, respectively. This gave Republicans a 27-25 majority heading into the 2011 election. Republicans picked up four seats in the 2011 election and won a 31-21 majority. The Republican gains in 2011 and 2015 were in line with a national trend toward Republican state legislatures during the presidency ofBarack Obama (D). From 2009 to 2017, Democrats experiencedlosses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats all together.

State House

See also:Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2019

Mississippi House of Representatives Party Control

Mississippi House of Representatives
PartyAs of November 5, 2019After November 6, 2019
    Democratic Party4446
    Republican Party7475
    Independent21
    Vacancies20
Total122122
Click here to see the results of Mississippi's state house races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2015, partisan control of the Mississippi House of Representatives shifted from being heavily Democratic to a Republican majority. Democrats went from having a 66-seat advantage following the 1991 elections to being at a 24-seat disadvantage after the 2015 elections. The rapid partisan change in the chamber coincided with the American South's shift from over a century of Democratic dominance to being solid Republican in the early 21st century. The table below shows the partisan history of the Mississippi House of Representatives following every general election from 1991 to 2015. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Mississippi House of Representatives election results: 1991-2015

Party91959903071115
Democrats93868675755849
Republicans27333347476473
Other2330000

From 1992 to 2011, House Democrats held large majorities in the chamber, the largest following the 1991 election when Democrats held a 66-seat advantage. In every election between 1991 and 2007, Democrats either lost seats or gained no seats. From 1991 to 2003, House Democrats had more than the 82 seats required to override gubernatorial vetoes.

Republicans took control of the Mississippi House of Representatives in the 2011 elections. Before the 2011 election, the last time that Republicans controlled the state House was during Reconstruction.[14] Republicans picked up 10 seats in that election and won a 64-58 majority. The Republican gains in 2011 and 2015 were in line with a national trend toward Republican state legislatures during the presidency ofBarack Obama (D). From 2009 to 2017, Democrats experiencedlosses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats all together.

New Jersey

New Jersey's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. New Jersey legislators assume office at noon on the second Tuesday in January following the election.[15]

TheNew Jersey General Assembly last held elections in 2017. TheNew Jersey State Senate did not hold elections in 2019. Senators began four-year terms after being elected in2017.

  • Candidate filing deadline: April 1, 2019
  • Primary election: June 4, 2019
  • General election: November 5, 2019

State House

See also:New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2019

New Jersey General Assembly Party Control

New Jersey General Assembly
PartyAs of November 5, 2019After November 6, 2019
    Democratic Party5452
    Republican Party2628
Total8080
Click here to see the results of New Jersey's state house races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2017, partisan control of the New Jersey General Assembly shifted from being heavily Republican to a Democratic majority. Republicans went from having a 36-seat advantage following the 1991 elections to being at a 28-seat disadvantage after the 2017 elections. The table below shows the partisan history of the New Jersey General Assembly following every general election from 1991 to 2017. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

New Jersey General Assembly election results: 1991-2017

Year'91'93'95'97'99'01'03'05'07'09'11'13'15'17
Democrats2227303235444748484748485254
Republicans5853504845363332323332322826

From 1991 to 2001, Republicans held large majorities in the chamber, the largest following the 1991 election when Republicans held a 36-seat advantage. In elections between 1993 and 1999, Republicans lost seats in every election. Republicans won the 54 seats required for a two-thirds supermajority just once.

Democrats took control of the New Jersey General Assembly in the 2001 elections. Democrats picked up nine seats in that election and won a 44-36 majority. Between 2001 and 2017, Democrats held their largest majority following the 2017 elections when they held a 28-seat advantage. Despite the national trend toward Republican state legislatures during the presidency ofBarack Obama (D), the New Jersey General Assembly was resistant to that trend. Democrats never fell below 47 seats during Obama's presidency. From 2009 to 2017, Democrats experiencedlosses in state legislative elections, totaling 968 seats all together.

Virginia

Virginia's state senators are elected to four-year terms and state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Virginia legislators assume office the second Wednesday in January after the election.[16][17]

  • Candidate filing deadline: March 28, 2019
  • Primary election: June 11, 2019
  • General election: November 5, 2019

State Senate

See also:Virginia State Senate elections, 2019

Virginia State Senate Party Control

Virginia State Senate
PartyAs of November 5, 2019After November 6, 2019
    Democratic Party1921
    Republican Party2019
    Vacancies10
Total4040
Click here to see the results of Virginia's state senate races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1994 and 2015, partisan control of the Virginia State Senate fluctuated, swinging back and forth between the Democratic and Republican parties. The table below shows the partisan history of the Virginia State Senate following every general election from 1991 to 2015. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Virginia State Senate election results: 1991-2015

Party91959903071115
Democrats22201916212019
Republicans18202124192021

As a result of the 1991 elections, Democrats held a 22-18 majority. Elections in 1995 and2011 resulted in the chamber moving to a split 20-20 partisan balance. Both of those elections followed a Democratic majority in the previous cycle and were followed by a Republican majority in the next cycle. The largest change in partisan balance of the state Senate was between2003 and2007, when Democrats gained five seats. The2015 elections resulted in a 21-19 Republican majority.

State House

See also:Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2019

Virginia House of Delegates Party Control

Virginia House of Delegates
PartyAs of November 5, 2019After November 6, 2019
    Democratic Party4955
    Republican Party5145
Total100100
Click here to see the results of Virginia's state house races since 1991. 
Prior elections

Between 1991 and 2015, partisan control of the Virginia House of Delegates shifted in favor of the Republican Party. As a result of the 1991 elections, Democrats held a 52-47 majority. Republicans gained control of the chamber in 1999 and, by2015, expanded their majority to 66-34. The table below shows the partisan history of the Virginia House of Delegates following every general election from 1992 to 2016. All data from 2006 or earlier comes from Michael Dubin'sParty Affiliations in the State Legislatures (McFarland Press, 2007). Data after 2006 was compiled by Ballotpedia staff.

Virginia House of Delegates election results: 1991-2015

Party91939597990103050709111315
Democrats52525250473137394439323334
Republicans47474749526761585459676766

Republicans began making gains in the state House after the 1997 elections, when they picked up two seats. The chamber moved to a 52-47 Republican majority after the 1999 elections. The largest change in the partisan balance of the state House occurred as a result of the2001 elections, when Republicans expanded their majority by 15 seats. Democrats gained 13 seats between2003 and2007. In2011, Republicans gained eights eats, moving the chamber to a 67-32 Republican majority.

Two-thirds of members present in both chambers must vote to override a veto. If all members are in attendance, this is 67 of the 100 members in theVirginia House of Delegates and 27 of the 40 members in theVirginia State Senate.

Battleground chambers

See also:Battlegrounds

Ballotpedia tracked three state legislative battleground chambers in 2019—theLouisiana House of Representatives,Virginia State Senate, andVirginia House of Delegates.

Party control of eight seats in the Louisiana state House was on the ballot in the November 16, 2019, general election. Had Republicans won all seven races where they were on the ballot, the party would have won asupermajority in the chamber.

Heading into the election, Republicans held a two-seat majority in both Virginia chambers. The Virginia State Senate has had a 2-seat or smaller majority (including several years as a tied chamber) since 2007. In the Virginia House of Delegates, Democrats picked up 15 seats in 2017, and only a Republican win in a tiebreaker of random chance in District 94 kept Republicans from losing control of the chamber.

Battlegrounds were chambers that we anticipated would be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and have the potential to see significant shifts in party control in the 2019 general elections.

Criteria for identification as a battleground chamber included the majority party's share of seats, the number of competitive races, and more.Read the complete list of criteria here.

The columns in the chart below list the following information:

  • Seats up in 2019: This was the number of seats in the chamber that were up for election in 2019.
  • Margin: This was the difference in seats between the majority and minority parties.
  • Majority share of seats: This was the percentage of the chamber's total seats controlled by the majority party.
  • Last time party control changed?: This was the election where the party in power before the 2019 elections took control of the chamber.
2019 battleground chambers
ChamberSeats up in 2019MarginMajority share of seatsLast time party control changed?Did it flip?
Louisiana House of RepresentativesAll 105R+2157 percent2010No
Virginia State SenateAll 40R+253 percent2015Yes
Virginia House of DelegatesAll 100R+251 percent2000Yes

State legislative special elections

See also:State legislative special elections, 2019

In 2019, special elections for state legislative positions were held for the following reasons:

  • 47 due to appointment, election, or the seeking of election to another position
  • 21 due to a retirement
  • 6 due to the death of the incumbent
  • 1 due to a resignation related to criminal charges
  • 2 due to an election being rerun

Impact of special elections on partisan composition

The partisan breakdown for the special elections was as follows:

The table below details how many seats changed parties as the result of a special election in 2019. The number on the left reflects how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the number on the right shows how many vacant seats each party won in the special elections. In elections between 2011 and 2018, either the Democratic Party or Republican Party saw an average net gain of four seats across the country. Between 2017 and 2018, Democrats had a net gain of 19 seats.

Note: This table reflects information for elections that were held and not the total number of vacant seats.

Partisan Change from Special Elections (2019)
PartyAs of Special ElectionAfter Special Election
    Democratic Party3936
    Republican Party3840
    Independent01
Total 77 77

Flipped seats

In 2019, eight seats flipped as a result of state legislative special elections.

Seats flipped from D to R

Seats flipped from R to D

Seats flipped from R to I


Electoral competitiveness

See also:Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 9, 2019

Ballotpedia's 9th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 538 state legislative elections that took place in November 2019. Key findings included:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 301 (55.9%) state legislative elections did not have major party competition, meaning they featured a candidate from just one of the two major political parties.
  • There were more races with two major party candidates in 2019 (44.1%) than there were in 2015 (38.3%), but fewer than there were in 2011 (46.0%).
  • 105 (19.5%) state legislative incumbents did not seek re-election. Of those, 65 were Republicans, 38 were Democrats, and two were minor party or independent officeholders.
  • Only four states hold state legislative elections during odd-numbered years: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. This year, both chambers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia were up for election, along with the New Jersey General Assembly. The last time all of these chambers were up for election at the same time was 2015. The table below shows competitiveness statistics for each odd-year election dating back to 2011.

    Seats without major party opposition

    See also:Major party candidates with major party competition in the November 2019 state legislative elections

    When a candidate from only one of either theDemocratic orRepublican parties runs for a state legislative seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. In 2019, 299 state legislative seats do not feature major party competition.

    • 158 state legislative elections (29.4 percent of all state legislative elections) did not feature aDemocratic candidate and were likely to be won by aRepublican.In other words, Democrats were contesting 70.6 percent of all state legislative seats.
    • 141 elections (26.2 percent of all state legislative elections) did not feature aRepublican candidate and were likely to be won by aDemocrat.In other words, Republicans were contesting 73.8 percent of all state legislative seats.
    • In two states, more than half of all candidates did not face major party competition.

    Open seats

    See also:Open seats in the 2019 state legislative elections

    In districts where the incumbent legislator does not file for re-election, the seat is guaranteed to a newcomer.

    • 103 state legislative incumbents are not running for re-election.In other words, nearly 20 percent of all state legislative seats won in the 2019 cycle were guaranteed to be held by a newly elected state legislator, the most since 2012.
    • 39 Democratic state legislators (37.9 percent of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • 62 Republican state legislators (60.2 percent of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • Two Independent state legislators did not seek re-election.

    Primary competitiveness

    See also:2019 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government

    As the chart below shows, 2019 has the highest rate of contested primaries in any odd-year election since 2015, and also the highest rate of incumbents contested in primaries. To learn more about competitiveness in state legislative primaries in 2019, visitthis page.

    Primary election competitiveness, 2015-2019 (odd years)
    YearTotal seatsOpen seatsTotal candidatesDemocratic primaries contestedRepublican primaries contestedTotal contestedIncumbents contested in primaries% of incumbents contested in primaries
    2019
    538
    110
    1,064
    70
    58
    26.8%
    129
    30.1%
    2017
    220
    20
    471
    34
    17
    14.2%
    32
    16.0%
    2015
    398
    60
    781
    41
    41
    26.6%
    91
    26.9%

    Defeated incumbents

    See also:Incumbents defeated in 2019's state legislative elections

    As the chart below shows, 2019 only had a higher rate of defeated incumbents than 2013 across the last five odd-year election cycles. The statistics from the five previous cycles are available below.

    Defeated incumbents, 2011-2019 (odd years)
    YearTotal seatsIncumbents runningIncumbents defeated in primaryIncumbents defeated in generalIncumbents defeated total (percent)
    2019
    538
    435
    9
    8
    17 (3.9%)
    2017
    220
    201
    0
    14
    14 (7.0%)
    2015
    538
    463
    14
    13
    27 (5.8%)
    2013
    220
    205
    2
    4
    6 (2.9%)
    2011
    578
    473
    8
    20
    28 (5.9%)

    Historical competitiveness data

    In 2010, Ballotpedia began using official candidate lists from each state to examine thecompetitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Three factors are used in the analysis: the number of incumbents who do not seek re-election, the number of races that featureonly one major party candidate, and the number of incumbents who draw primary challengers.

    The following table details the data collected from regularly scheduled state legislative elections between 2010 and 2018. It features the total number of seats up for election, open seats, races that included only one major party candidate, and incumbents who faced primary challengers. The table is organized by even-year elections and odd-year elections because years that have the same number of seats up for elections are similar in terms of their competitiveness.

    Competitiveness in state legislative elections (2010-2018)
    YearTotal seatsOpen seatsNo major party
    challengers
    Primaries featuring
    incumbents
    Odd-year elections
    201722020 (9.1%)42 (19.1%)32 (16.0%)
    201553875 (13.9%)330 (61.3%)101 (21.8%)
    201322015 (6.8%)58 (26.4%)25 (12.2%)
    2011578105 (18.2%)246 (42.6%)95 (20.1%)
    Even-year elections
    20186,0731,181 (19.5%)2,017 (33.2%)1,064 (21.8%)
    20165,9231,040 (17.6%)2,477 (41.8%)1,005 (20.6%)
    20146,0571,030 (17.0%)2,606 (43.0%)1,009 (20.1%)
    20126,0151,227 (20.4%)2,409 (40.0%)1,175 (24.5%)
    20106,1251,140 (18.6%)2,000 (32.7%)1,133 (22.7%)

    Odd-year elections since 2009

    Four states hold state legislative elections in odd-numbered years: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. In the last 10 years, there have been between two and eight state legislative chambers up in an election cycle. Only two chambers--theNew Jersey General Assembly and theVirginia House of Delegates--hold regular elections every two years. The other six chambers hold elections every two to four years, depending on when the last round of redistricting took place.

    The chart below details the results of state legislative elections from 2009 to 2017. During that period, two chambers flipped party control--both in 2011.[18] Partisan changes ranged from a Republican gain of 27 seats in 2011 to a Democratic gain of 18 seats in 2017.

    Odd-year elections since 2009
    YearChambers upFlipped chambersSeats upTotal Democratic seats pre-electionTotal Democratic seat changeTotal Republican seats pre-electionTotal Republican seat change
    20173[19]None220110+18110-18
    20157[20]None5382300302+4
    20133[21]None220104+1113-2
    20118[22]2[18]578287-24285+27
    20092[23]None17892-686+6

    Impact of term limits

    See also:Louisiana State Senate elections, 2019 andLouisiana House of Representatives, 2019

    In 2019, 47 state legislators were ineligible to run for office because of term limits.Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2019.

    Of the 15 state legislatures with term limits, Louisiana is the only state where term limits were imposed by the state’s lawmakers, rather than through the ballot initiative process. Under Louisiana’s term limits, state lawmakers can serve no more than three four-year terms. The state’s term limits law was enacted in 1995. The first year that term limits impacted the ability of incumbents to run for office was in 2007.

    Incumbents

    The following table detailed the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

    2019 term-limited incumbents
    Party# of termed senators # of termed representativesTotal
    Democratic41317
    Republican121729
    Independent011
    Total163147

    Political context

    The 2019 elections occurred in the aftermath of significant Democratic gains in the2018 elections and2017 elections. In the2018 elections, Democrats flipped a net 308 legislative seats and picked up six legislative chambers, reversing some of the Republican gains made from 2010 to 2016.

    Changes in chamber partisan control, 2010 to 2018

    See also:Partisan composition of state legislatures

    Prior to the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled 60 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers, Republicans controlled 37, and two chambers were not controlled by either party. In the six years that followed, Republicans made significant gains and took control of many of the chambers that were previously held by Democrats. After the 2016 elections, Democrats controlled 31 chambers and Republicans controlled 68.

    In the2017 and2018 elections, Democrats increased their number of state legislative chambers to 37, and Republicans saw their number of chambers fall to 61. Control of one chamber, theAlaska House of Representatives, was split between the parties.

    From 2010 to 2018, there were 61 instances where a state legislative chamber changed partisan control. Of these 61 changes, 40 involved a chamber changing from Democratic to Republican control and 17 involved a chamber changing from Republican to Democratic control. The other four involved chambers that were split between the two parties (Oregon House in 2010 and 2012; Montana House in 2010; Alaska House in 2018).

    Most of the changes came during major elections but some also came through special elections (Louisiana House in 2010; Washington Senate in 2017) and party switching (Louisiana House in 2010; Mississippi Senate in 2011). In some cases, the party that gained control did not have a numerical majority but instead controlled the chamber through abipartisan coalition (i.e., Alaska House in 2016). This table does not account for changes in party control or ties in a chamber that lasted for less than one year and were not the result of a regularly scheduled election. An example of this is the brief period of Democratic control in the Virginia State Senate in 2014.[24]

    From 2010 to 2018, 39 chambers switched control: 24 switched control once, 11 switched control twice, one switched control three times, and three switched control four times.

    For this chart, a red box indicates that the chamber flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and a blue box indicates that the chamber flipped from Republican to Democratic control.[25]

    Chamber changes in partisan control: 2010-2018
    Party changes in 2010Party changes in 2011Party changes in 2012Party changes in 2014Party changes in 2016Party changes in 2017Party changes in 2018Party changes in 2019
    Alabama SenateLouisiana Senate[26][27]Alaska SenateColorado SenateAlaska HouseWashington SenateAlaska House[28]Virginia Senate
    Alabama HouseMississippi Senate[29][30]Arkansas SenateMaine SenateIowa SenateColorado SenateVirginia House
    Colorado HouseMississippi HouseArkansas HouseMinnesota HouseKentucky HouseMaine Senate
    Indiana HouseVirginia Senate[31]Colorado HouseNevada SenateMinnesota SenateMinnesota House
    Iowa HouseMaine SenateNevada HouseNevada SenateNew Hampshire House
    Louisiana House[32][33]Maine HouseNew Hampshire HouseNevada HouseNew Hampshire Senate
    Maine SenateMinnesota SenateNew Mexico HouseNew Mexico HouseNew York Senate
    Maine HouseMinnesota HouseWest Virginia Senate
    Michigan HouseNew Hampshire HouseWest Virginia House
    Minnesota SenateOregon House[34]
    Minnesota HouseWashington Senate
    Montana House[35]
    New Hampshire Senate
    New Hampshire House
    New York Senate
    North Carolina Senate
    North Carolina House
    Ohio House
    Oregon House[36]
    Pennsylvania House
    Wisconsin Senate
    Wisconsin House
    Total changes: 22Total changes: 4Total changes: 11Total changes: 9Total changes: 7Total changes: 1Total changes: 7Total changes: 2

    The chart below shows how many chambers each party controlledafter the November elections in a given year.

    Partisan control of state legislative chambers: 2010-2018
    ElectionDemocratic chambersRepublican chambersOther
    Before 201060372
    201038592
    201135604
    201241562
    201341562
    201430681
    201530681
    201631680
    201732670
    201837611
    201939591

    State legislatures and presidents

    First two years in office

    Heading into the 2019 election, the Republican Party was coming off a substantial loss of seats during a major election for the first time in more than a decade. Republicans across the country collectively lost 345 seats in 2017 and 2018, marking the third time during the last four presidencies that the party of the sitting president--Donald Trump (R) in this case--lost seats during that president's first midterm election. Democrats lost 702 seats duringBarack Obama's (D) first two years in office and 488 seats duringBill Clinton's (D) first two years. OnlyGeorge W. Bush (R) saw a net gain of seats during his first two years with Republicans winning a net 110 seats.




    Two-term presidents

    It is normal for a party to lose ground in state legislatures when their party controls the presidency for two terms. Between the time of Franklin Roosevelt (D) andGeorge W. Bush (R), the political party of the president lost, on average, 450 state legislative seats while holding the White House. The losses that the Democratic Party sustained underBarack Obama (D), however, were exceptional, rivaled only by the terms ofRichard Nixon (R) andDwight Eisenhower (R), when Republicans lost 800 and 843 seats, respectively.

    Trifectas from 2010 to 2018

    See also:State government trifectas

    A state government trifecta occurs when one political party controls the primary levers of power in a state: the governor's office, the state Senate, and the state House. From 2010 to 2018, the Republican Party increased its number of trifectas and the Democratic Party saw a decline in its trifectas. However, Democrats picked up six trifectas in the 2018 elections, and Republicans lost four trifectas.

    This chart shows the number of trifectas each party held heading into elections from 2010 to 2018, and the number of trifectas following the 2018 elections.

    Trifectas by year: 2010-2018
    ElectionDemocratic trifectasRepublican trifectasStates under divided government
    Pre-2010 elections171023
    Pre-2012 elections112217
    Pre-2014 elections122414
    Pre-2016 elections72320
    Pre-2018 elections82616
    Post-2018 elections142214


    Analysis of state elections

    See also:Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2019


    In 2019, eight states held elections for executive, legislative, or judicial seats, including elections for seven of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers and for three gubernatorial seats.

    All state elections:
    2019 election analysis: State government trifectas
    Trifecta vulnerability in the 2019 elections
    2019 primary election competitiveness in state government
    Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024
    State executive elections:
    State executive official elections, 2019
    Gubernatorial elections, 2019
    Secretary of State elections, 2019
    Attorney General elections, 2019
    2019 election analysis: State government triplexes
    State executive official elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2019
    List of candidates in state executive elections, 2019
    State legislative elections:
    State legislative elections, 2019
    State legislative special elections, 2019
    Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 9, 2019
    State legislative elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2019
    Open seats in the 2019 state legislative elections
    Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2019
    2019 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government
    Incumbents defeated in 2019's state legislative elections
    List of candidates in state legislative elections, 2019
    Other state elections:
    State judicial elections, 2019
    2019 ballot measures


    Footnotes

    1. The remaining six seats were either vacant or held by independent legislators.
    2. The 99th chamber was controlled by Democrats and Republicans through a power-sharing agreement. The remaining were either vacant or held by independent legislators.
    3. Louisiana Constitution, "Article 3, Section 5," accessed February 10, 2021
    4. Louisiana Constitution, "Article 4, Section 3," accessed February 10, 2021
    5. Held if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary.
    6. Louisiana Republican Legislative Delegation, "Republican Delegation Welcomes Senator Norby Chabert to the Republican Party," accessed October 5, 2017
    7. Four state senators switched their party affiliation from Democrat to Republican and Republicans flipped two seats in special elections.
    8. Nola, "Senate election completes Republican takeover of Louisiana government," February 21, 2011
    9. NOLA, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
    10. Mississippi Constitution, "Article 4, Section 36," accessed November 1, 2021
    11. Google Books, "Crossing the Aisle: Party Switching by U.S. Legislators in the Postwar Era," accessed August 31, 2017
    12. Jackson Free Press, "Dems Bolster Power in Legislature," November 14, 2007
    13. Natchez Democrat, "State Sen. Mettetal joins Republican Party," January 30, 2008
    14. The Dispatch, "Brown chosen as No. 2 in Senate," January 3, 2012
    15. New Jersey Constitution, "Article IV, Section II (2.)," accessed February 10, 2021
    16. Virginia Legislative Information System, "Code of Virginia - § 24.2-214. Election and term of Senators." accessed January 6, 2022
    17. Virginia Legislative Information System, "Code of Virginia - § 24.2-215. Election and term of members of the House of Delegates." accessed January 6, 2022
    18. 18.018.1The Mississippi House flipped from Democratic to Republican control, and the Virginia Senate flipped from Democratic control to split control.
    19. NJ Senate and House; VA House
    20. LA Senate and House; MS Senate and House; NJ House; VA Senate and House
    21. NJ Senate and House; VA House
    22. LA Senate and House; MS Senate and House; NJ Senate and House; VA Senate and House
    23. NJ House and VA House
    24. The Washington Post, "Virginia Republicans snatched control of the state Senate, ended budget-Medicaid impasse," June 9, 2014
    25. 2015 and 2013 are not included because no chambers flipped those years.
    26. The chamber first changed from Democratic to Republican control in a February 2011 special election. Republicans increased their majority to 24-15 in the 2011 elections.
    27. Fox News, "GOP Candidate Wins Lousiana [sic] Senate Special Election, Shifting Majority," February 20, 2011
    28. Chamber went from being controlled by a Democratic-led bipartisan coalition to being led by a coalition with power split between the parties.
    29. The chamber changed partisan control prior to the 2011 elections due to Democrats switching to the Republican Party and special election wins by Republicans. Republicans increased their majority in the 2011 elections to 31-21.
    30. The Washington Post, "Southern Democrats in dire straits; 2011 looms large," January 11, 2011
    31. In the 2011 elections, the chamber changed from a 22-18 Democratic advantage to a 20-20 tie. Republicans effectively controlled the chamber because Lieutenant Gov.Bill Bolling (R) could cast tie-breaking votes.
    32. This chamber did not hold elections in 2010. It switched partisan control in December 2010 when Democrat Noble Ellingtonchanged his party affiliation to Republican. In the regularly-scheduled 2011 elections, Republicans increased their majority to 58-45.
    33. Nola.com, "Louisiana Republicans take first House majority since Reconstruction with latest party switch," December 17, 2010
    34. In this election, the Oregon House changed from a 30-30 tie to a 34-26 Democratic advantage.
    35. This chamber went from a 50-50 tie to a 68-32 Republican advantage in the 2010 elections.
    36. This chamber went from a 36-24 Democratic advantage to a 30-30 tie in the 2010 elections.
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