2016 State Legislative Elections
2017» «2015
Part 1: Overview
Part 2: Battlegrounds
Part 3: Competitiveness
Impact of term limits
Part 4: Elections by state
Election dates

OnNovember 8, 2016, 86 of America's 99 state legislative chambers held elections.Both Democrats and Republicans made gains in different areas of the country. Overall, the GOP gained came out ahead. Republicans flipped 138 seats while Democrats flipped 95 seats. TheRepublican Party's share of seats in state legislatures increased by 43 seats across the country. Republicans controlled 4,161 (56.4 percent) of the 7,383 legislative seats heading into the election.

In2010 and2014, Republicans won hundreds of formerly Democratic-held state legislative seats across the United States. These past successes put them at a relatively greaterpartisan risk in 2016, since the GOP held a higher percentage of the seats up for election than Democrats. However, Republicans were able to maintain and increase their advantage in state legislative chambers nationwide. The Democratic Party would need to oust Republican majorities in many state legislative chambers over the course of 2018 and 2020 in order to control the redistricting process in 2020. This process establishes congressional and legislative district lines in many states, which can influence the competitiveness of those elections in favor of one political party or another until the following census in 2030.

Seven chambers flipped control as a result of the election. Republicans gained majorities in theIowa State Senate,Kentucky House of Representatives, andMinnesota State Senate. The GOP gained two additionaltrifectas as a result of Iowa and Kentucky. Democrats were able to flip theNevada State Senate,Nevada State Assembly, andNew Mexico House of Representatives. As a result, a Republican trifecta was broken in Nevada. Changes on November 8 brought the Republican Party's control of all three aspects of state government to 25 states. Democrats' share of trifectas dropped to six states.^[1]

In the aftermath of the 2016 elections, 68 chambers were under GOP control, while Democrats held majorities in 31 chambers.^[2] In 43 of the 50state senates, 1,212 seats were up for election. In 43 of the 49state houses, 4,711 of the country's 5,411 state house seats were up for election.

Two chambers moved to a split balance following the election:

• Republicans in theConnecticut State Senate picked up three seats, moving the balance of the chamber to 18-18.

• TheDelaware State Senate resulted in a temporary split after state Sen.Bethany Hall-Long (D) won election in the lieutenant governor's race. A special election to fill the vacancy left by Hall-Long took place on February 25, 2017. The race for Hall-Long's District 10 seat in 2014 was competitive, with a 2.2 percent margin of victory.Read more about the special election on February 25, 2017,here.

Three states entered into unique governing situations in their state legislative chambers after the 2016 elections:

• Alaska Republicans were able to maintain a numerical majority in thestate House despite losing two seats. Shortly after the election, a coalition was announced between House Democrats, three Republican representatives, and two independent representatives. The coalition gave effective control of the chamber to Democrats.

• The Independent Democratic Caucus of theNew York State Senate, along with an additional Democratic state senator, once again gave Republicans control of the state Senate despite Democrats winning a numerical majority.

• Democrats gained a numerical majority in theWashington State Senate. However, Republicans maintained control of the chamber due to a Democratic senator who caucuses with the Republicans.

What was at stake

Partisan balance

There was little shift in the number of chambers controlled by either party. The Democratic Party and Republican Party each lost three chambers to the other party on election night. However, Democrats also lost majorities in theConnecticut State Senate andDelaware State Senate when those chambers moved to a split partisan balance. A special election will determine which party controls the 21-member Delaware Senate. In Alaska, coalition between House Democrats, three Republican representatives, and two independent representatives gave effective control of the chamber to Democrats.

Heading into the 2016 elections, Republicans held a majority of state legislative chambers. Sixty-nine chambers were under GOP control, while Democrats held majorities in 30 chambers.^[3]

The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.

Partisan Control of All 99 State Legislatures
	Pre-election		Post-election
Legislative Chamber
State senates	14	36	13	37
State houses	16	33	18	31
Total:	30	69	31	68

The following table details partisan balance of all 7,383 state legislative seats.^[4]

Partisan Balance of All 7,383 State Legislative Seats
	Pre-election			Post-election
Legislative Chamber			[5]			[5]
State senates	839	1,125	8	804	1,158	10
State houses	2,347	3,036	28	2,339	3,047	25
Total:	3,186	4,161	36	3,143	4,205	35

Chambers that flipped in 2016

Seven chambers flipped control after the November 2016 elections.

State	Pre-election party in power	Post-election party in power
Iowa State Senate
Kentucky House of Representatives
Minnesota State Senate
Nevada State Senate
Nevada State Assembly
New Mexico House of Representatives
Alaska House of Representatives[6]

Pre-election partisan balance

• Figure 1: Partisan control of state senate chambers prior to the 2016 election. Democrats controlled 14 state senates and Republicans controlled 36 state senates.^[7]
• Figure 2: Partisan control of state house chambers prior to the 2016 election. Democrats controlled 16 state houses and Republicans controlled 33 state houses.

State legislatures during the Obama presidency

Since World War II, the political party of an outgoing two-term president or consecutive political party administration has lost an average of 450 state legislative seats, excluding PresidentBarack Obama. During President Obama's(D) two terms in office, Democrats experienced a net loss of 968 state legislative seats, the largest net loss of state legislative seats in this category since World War II. The second-largest loss occurred followingDwight D. Eisenhower's two terms in office, whenRepublicans were handed a net loss of 843 state legislative seats. President Ronald Reagan(R) was the only president to increase his party's number of state legislative seats over his two terms in office, gaining six total seats across all 50 state legislatures.^[8]

Click here to read more about changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency »

State government trifectas

See also:Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government

Atrifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:

• Thegovernorship
• A majority in thestate senate
• A majority in thestate house

The concept of thetrifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader, and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.

Heading into the 2016 elections,30 states were controlled by a trifecta. OnlyAlaska,Colorado,Illinois,Iowa,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maine,Maryland,Massachusetts,Minnesota,Missouri,Montana,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New Mexico,New York,Pennsylvania,Virginia,Washington, andWest Virginia had split party control of their governments.Nebraska is a unique case in that theGovernor of Nebraska was a Republican and thelegislature, although technically nonpartisan, was controlled by aRepublican majority.

Heading into the election, states with a trifecta included:

• 7 Democratic trifectas
• 23 Republican trifectas

As a result of the November 2016 elections, there were 31 state government trifectas in the 2017 state legislative sessions.

• 6 Democratic trifectas^[9]
• 25 Republican trifectas

Battleground chambers

Of the 86 chambers with elections in 2016, Ballotpedia identifiedthe top 20 state legislative chambers to watch. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.

Click here to navigate to an in-depth look at each of the chambers on Ballotpedia's list, as well as those chambers being targeted by Democrats and Republicans »

Chambers targeted by the DLCC and RSLC

TheDemocratic Legislative Campaign Committee andRepublican State Leadership Committee publicly targeted chambers in 20 states.

The DLCC and RSLC also released lists of legislative seats that would be instrumental in their attempts to flip or defend target chambers. Democrats released three publications of their "Essential Races" list while the GOP published three rounds of their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."

The five districts that were targeted by both the DLCC and RSLC were:

• Arizona State Senate, District 28

A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat in a swing district.

• Colorado State House, District 3

A Democrat and a Republican ran for this open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

• New Mexico State Senate, District 29

The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.

• Oregon State House, District 51

Republicans and Democrats competed for an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.

• West Virginia State Senate, District 16

A Democrat fought to keep an open seat in a competitive district most recently held by a Democrat.

The following table details each district targeted by the DLCC and RSLC. Click [Show] to expand the table. Party targeting details which organization included the district in their list. Type details if the intent by the DLCC or RSLC was to flip the district or prevent the other party from flipping it.

2016 Legislature Target Districts
State	Chamber	District	Party targeting	Pre-2016 control	Type	2016 Result
Alaska	State House	21	RSLC		Offensive
Arizona	State House	2	DLCC		Offensive[10]
Arizona	State Senate	2	RSLC		Offensive
Arizona	State Senate	13	RSLC		Offensive
Arizona	State Senate	28	Both		Both
California	State Senate	29	RSLC		Defensive
California	State Assembly	38	RSLC		Defensive
Colorado	State House	3	Both		Both
Colorado	State Senate	19	DLCC		Offensive
Colorado	State Senate	26	RSLC		Offensive
Colorado	State House	30	DLCC		Offensive
Colorado	State House	31	RSLC		Offensive
Connecticut	State Senate	17	RSLC		Offensive
Connecticut	State House	110	RSLC		Offensive
Florida	State Senate	37	DLCC		Offensive
Florida	State House	47	DLCC		Offensive
Florida	State House	69	DLCC		Offensive
Florida	State House	112	RSLC		Offensive
Florida	State House	114	RSLC		Defensive
Georgia	State House	81	DLCC		Defensive
Georgia	State House	96	DLCC		Defensive
Hawaii	State House	34	RSLC		Offensive
Illinois	State House	71	RSLC		Offensive
Iowa	State Senate	28	DLCC		Offensive
Iowa	State Senate	30	RSLC		Offensive
Iowa	State Senate	34	RSLC		Offensive
Iowa	State Senate	46	DLCC		Defensive
Iowa	State House	55	DLCC		Offensive
Kentucky	State House	3	RSLC		Offensive
Kentucky	State House	8	DLCC		Defensive
Kentucky	State House	20	RSLC		Offensive
Kentucky	State House	38	DLCC		Offensive
Kentucky	State House	46	DLCC		Defensive
Kentucky	State House	99	RSLC		Offensive
Maine	State Senate	6	RSLC		Defensive
Michigan	State House	71	DLCC		Offensive
Michigan	State House	83	RSLC		Defensive
Michigan	State House	91	DLCC		Offensive
Michigan	State House	99	DLCC		Offensive
Michigan	State House	106	RSLC		Defensive
Minnesota	State Senate	1	DLCC		Defensive
Minnesota	State Senate	53	RSLC		Offensive
Minnesota	State Senate	58	DLCC		Offensive
Minnesota	State House	28B	DLCC		Offensive
Minnesota	State House	42B	RSLC		Offensive
Missouri	State Senate	1	DLCC		Defensive
Missouri	State Senate	19	DLCC		Offensive
Montana	State House	3	DLCC		Defensive
Montana	State House	25	DLCC		Defensive
Montana	State Senate	26	DLCC		Offensive
Nevada	State Senate	15	DLCC		Offensive
Nevada	State Assembly	25	RSLC		Defensive
New Hampshire	State Senate	12	DLCC		Offensive
New Hampshire	State Senate	23	DLCC		Offensive
New Mexico	State House	4	DLCC		Offensive
New Mexico	State Senate	9	RSLC		Offensive
New Mexico	State House	15	DLCC		Offensive
New Mexico	State House	24	RSLC		Defensive
New Mexico	State Senate	29	Both		Both
New Mexico	State House	30	DLCC		Offensive
New Mexico	State House	32	RSLC		Offensive
New Mexico	State House	43	RSLC		Offensive
New York	State Senate	6	DLCC		Offensive
New York	State Senate	7	DLCC		Offensive
North Carolina	State House	98	DLCC		Offensive
North Dakota	State House	44	DLCC		Offensive[10]
Ohio	State House	16	DLCC		Offensive
Ohio	State Senate	24	DLCC		Offensive
Ohio	State House	95	DLCC		Offensive
Oklahoma	State House	39	RSLC		Defensive
Oregon	State Senate	3	DLCC		Defensive
Oregon	State House	20	RSLC		Offensive
Oregon	State House	22	RSLC		Offensive
Oregon	State Senate	25	RSLC		Offensive
Oregon	State House	51	Both		Both
South Dakota	State House	27	DLCC		Defensive
Texas	State House	118	RSLC		Defensive
Washington	State Senate	17	RSLC		Defensive
Washington	State Senate	28	DLCC		Offensive
Washington	State House	30a	DLCC		Offensive
Washington	State House	44A	RSLC		Offensive
Washington	State House	45A	RSLC		Offensive
West Virginia	State Senate	16	Both		Both
West Virginia	State House	38	RSLC		Defensive
Wisconsin	State Senate	14	DLCC		Offensive
Wisconsin	State Senate	18	DLCC		Offensive
Wisconsin	State Assembly	51	DLCC		Offensive
Wisconsin	State Assembly	85	DLCC		Offensive
Wisconsin	State Assembly	94	RSLC		Offensive
Wyoming	State Senate	10	DLCC		Offensive

The following table details recent election history for each targeted district. Click [Show] to expand the table. Included is the vote share each 2012 presidential candidate received for the state and for the legislative district. Vote shares for 2014 and 2012 legislative candidates are also included.

Electoral competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country.

Click here to read the full study »

Incumbents defeated

General elections

The number of incumbents defeated in general elections varies depending on the nature of the election. Some years, like 2010, experience what is referred to as a wave election. The 2010 election was one in which Republicans had significant momentum and were able to flip many seats. About 500 incumbents were defeated in that general election. Other years have been more tame. In 2014, just over 250 incumbents were defeated. Republicans had another strong year in 2014 but, due to their existing position of controlling majorities in most state legislatures, the resulting number of defeated incumbents remained low.

In the 2016 general election, 235 incumbents were defeated.

There were 126 Democratic incumbents defeated in general elections.

Another 105 Republican incumbents were defeated.

There were four third party incumbents defeated.

Primary elections

Historically, incumbents who run for re-election rarely lose in the primary. In 2016,123 incumbents were defeated in primary elections. About 10 percent of incumbents are defeated in an average election cycle, with most of those defeats occurring in the general election.

There were39 Democratic incumbents defeated. In other words, 90.4 percent of all Democratic incumbents who faced a primary defeated their challenger.

Another84 Republican incumbents were defeated. In other words, 86.1 percent of all GOP incumbents who faced a primary defeated their challenger.

Click here to see more data on incumbents who were defeated in 2016 elections »

Context

Less than 20 percent of voters can identify their state legislator. A 2013 study, authored by Steven Rogers and published in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, argues that, in part because of this knowledge gap, voters tend to vote along party lines, driven by their opinion of the current president and the rest of the federal government. From 1916 to 2016, there were only five elections in which the party that gained seats in Congress did not also gain seats in state legislatures.^[11][12]

Democrats lost a total of 968 seats from the time PresidentBarack Obama (D) took office in January 2009 until after the 2017 election. Geoffrey Skelley at the University of Virginia Center for Politics notes that the average number of seats lost by the sitting president's party has been 450 since World War II. PresidentRonald Reagan (R) was the only president to net seats during his two terms, gaining six seats total across all 50 state legislatures.^[13]

Historically, the party that wins the presidency typically sees coattails down-ballot. In 2000, Republicans saw gains in state legislative seats, while Democrats saw gains in 2008. Regardless of who won the White House in November 2016, it was unlikely that Democrats would lose many state legislative seats, because many of the seats held by Democrats were in districts that have historically been Democratic strongholds.Donald Trump's (R) win in November likely reinforced Republican gains in state legislators. Those gains were relatively minor, if only because Republicans held a large number of seats in state legislatures going into the election.^[12]

Although the pattern described above had been largely consistent in recent presidential elections, it was possible that the 2016 election may not have been affected by presidential preference to the same degree as in others. Because Democrats lost so many seats since Obama took office, there was a higher likelihood for the party to regain some of those seats than there was of losing more seats to the Republicans. This idea is referred to aspartisan risk.^[14][15]

Click here for more context on the forces affecting party control of state legislatures »

Footnotes