State legislative elections, 2015
In the 50 states, there are99 state legislative chambers, of whichseven chambers held state legislative elections inNovember 2015.[1]
Republicans held six of the seven chambers up for election in 2015; while most were comfortably in GOP control, theVirginia State Senate became atargeted chamber due to its slim margin of control. With Virginia under divided government, term-limitedGov. Terry McAuliffe led a drive to elect Democrats to the Senate in the hopes of making his late-term agenda, including Medicaid expansion and a two-year budget plan, easier to advance.[2] Control of Virginia's state Senate remained at a 21-19 Republican majority after the elections.
A total of 131 of the country's 1,972 state senate seats and 407 of the country's 5,411 state house seats were up for a vote. This accounts for 6.6 percent of the country's state senate seats and 7.5 percent of the country's state house seats. Altogether, 538 (7.3%) of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for election.Louisiana,Mississippi,New Jersey andVirginia hold elections in odd-numbered years. TheNew Jersey State Senate was the only chamber in those four states without scheduled elections in 2015.
What's at stake
State government trifectas
Atrifecta is when one political party holds these three positions in a state's government:
- Thegovernorship
- A majority in thestate senate
- A majority in thestate house.
The concept of thetrifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process.
Heading into the 2015 elections, 31 states were controlled by a trifecta. The following states held split-party control of their governments:Alaska,Colorado,Illinois,Iowa,Kentucky,Maine,Maryland,Massachusetts,Minnesota,Missouri,Montana,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New Mexico,New York,Pennsylvania,Virginia,Washington andWest Virginia.Nebraska is a unique case in that theGovernor of Nebraska is a Republican and thelegislature, although technically nonpartisan, is controlled by a Republican majority. Nebraska is considered a trifecta as part of this calculation.[3]
States with a trifecta include:
7 Democratic trifectas
24 Republican trifectas
Of the four states with elections:
- Louisiana: Republican trifecta
- Mississippi: Republican trifecta
New Jersey State Legislature: Divided government- Virginia General Assembly: Divided government
Majority control
The following table details partisan balance in all 99 chambers.
| Partisan Balance of All 99 Chambers Before and After 2015 Elections | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
| Legislative Chamber | | |  |  | | | | |
| State senates | 14 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 1 |
| State houses | 16 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 30 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 68 | 0 | 1 |
Of the states that held elections:
- Just one chamber, theNew Jersey General Assembly, was held by Democrats.
- Six chambers were Republican-controlled.
Virginia Senate battleground
TheVirginia State Senate featured the smallest gap in partisan balance between parties, with 19 seats held by Democrats and 21 held by Republicans. Democrats needed to win a net gain of one seat to effectively wrest power away from Republicans; asSenate President, DemocraticLt. Gov. Ralph Northam would have presumably served as the tiebreaker in party-line votes of 20-20.[4]Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), who could not run for a consecutive term in 2017, hoped that even a tie in the Senate would give him leverage in advancing Medicaid expansion, gun control and universal pre-kindergarten through a heavily RepublicanHouse of Delegates.[5]
Democrats faced a possible risk in a candidate who previously had been among their ranks.Former state Rep. Joseph Morrissey ran as an independent against incumbentRosalyn Dance (D) inSenate District 16, meaning he himself could have become a deciding vote, something an unnamed Democratic senator toldThe Washington Post "would put us in a horrible position and make it very hard for us to maintain our integrity and have him be part of our caucus." As a Democrat, Morrissey resigned his House seat earlier in the year after being convicted of a misdemeanor stemming from his relationship with a then-17-year-old staffer. As an independent, he then won the special election to succeed himself, but resigned again to run for the Senate seat due to Republicans' strong control of thestate House.[6] Morrissey left the race in September due to a paralyzed diaphragm.[7]
TheRepublican State Leadership Committee targeted the Senate in light of Virginia, as committee president Matt Walter stated, "[becoming] an increasingly important battleground state in presidential years."[8] McAuliffe, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, was known as an effective fundraiser prior to winning office and sought to draw money towards Senate races; however, state Republican chairmanJohn Whitbeck expected that his party would be able to surmount the money McAuliffe would bring in.[9][4]
Following the August on-air shooting death of Roanoke television journalist Alison Parker and her cameraman, Adam Ward, a national gun control advocacy group sought to spend $700,000 in advertising in theopen District 10 race in October. On October 21, television stations began airing "Condolences," an ad by former New York City MayorMichael Bloomberg'sEverytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and featuring Parker's father, Andy. The group targeted RepublicanGlen Sturtevant, who in comparison raised about $56,000 from theNational Rifle Association and $772,000 in total. According to Robert Holsworth of Virginia Commonwealth University, "For one group to put $700,000 into one-issue ads has to be unprecedented in state Senate races, particularly for a group from outside Virginia."[10] The group said at least $370,000 would be spent on broadcast television before spending on cable, radio and digital advertising.[11]
On October 22, Everytown announced $1.5 million in spending on television and digital advertising for Democratic candidateJeremy McPike in theopen District 29 race. McPike and Manassas MayorHal Parrish (R) ran to succeed outgoing incumbentCharles Colgan (D). The television advertisement is an adaptation of the previous "Condolences" spot. At the time of the ad buy, the two candidates had collectively raised $1.6 million.[12] Days before the election, McAuliffe's Common Good VA PAC had spent over $800,000 in favor of McPike and over $780,000 for Gecker.[13]
By late October, three Senate races were on pace to break fundraising records. Sturtevant and Democratic opponentDan Gecker raised almost $2 million. InDistrict 7, incumbentFrank Wagner (R) andGary McCollum (D) raised $1.83 million. In theopen District 29 race,Jeremy McPike (D) andHal Parrish (R) raised about $1.61 million. In comparison, the 2007 race for District 27 showed about $1.54 million at the same point when adjusted for inflation; it ended with over $3 million raised.[14]
Despite both parties' hopes of carrying the momentum from a win into 2016, Larry Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics did not believe that the outcome of the Senate elections would have much effect on the 2016 presidential election, regardless of McAuliffe's connections to Democratic candidateHillary Clinton.[15] Late in the election cycle, a poll by Christopher Newport University showed that more than two-thirds of Virginia voters were not involved in even the 2015 legislative races.[16]
Impact of term limits
Louisiana was the only state holding elections for a term-limited legislature in 2015.
The following table details the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election due to term limits, broken down by party and chamber.
| Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
 Democratic | 3 | 8 | 11 |
 Republican | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Competitiveness analysis
Two of the three aspects of Ballotpedia'sCompetitiveness Index -- the number ofopen seats andgeneral elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the election cycle four years prior. States with elections in 2015 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates and more incumbents ran for re-election than inthe 2011 election cycle, the last time all four odd-year states held legislative elections. However, the percentage ofincumbents facing primary opposition increased slightly.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there has not been an election cycle to do statistically worse when the three categories are given an averaged score. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Comparison between years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 31.9 | 30.9 | 24.8 |
| % Open Seats | 18.2% | 6.8% | 13.9% |
| % Inc that did face primary | 20.1% | 12.2% | 21.8% |
| % Candidates that did face major party opp | 57.4% | 73.6% | 38.7% |
The objective of the analysis is to know which states have the most competitive electoral environment and which states have the least competitive electoral environments in 2015. The term "competitive" is not used to declare which states are hotly contested between political parties. Instead, the term is used to indicate competitive environment on a ballot access level. TheCompetitiveness Index focuses on the relative competitiveness of state legislative elections by noting where incumbents are being challenged and if opportunities for election bids are being considered by candidates.
Incumbent turnover
In addition to themes previously presented in the Competitiveness Index, Ballotpedia staff analyzed primary results to look for the following circumstances:
- Incumbents who were defeated by primary challengers
- Overall turnover, including defeated incumbents and retirements, and the total number of open seats heading into the general election.
- Of the 101 partisan incumbents who faced primary opposition, 16 were defeated.
- Seven Democrats were defeated, with 84.8 percent advancing past the primary.
- Nine Republicans were defeated, while the remaining 83.6 percent advanced.
- Overall, 84.2 percent of incumbents advanced past the primary.
- Seventy-five incumbents declined to seek re-election or were term-limited.
- Ninety-one incumbents retired or were defeated, meaning that16.9 percent of seats were open heading into the general election.
Election dates
Mississippi opened the 2015 campaign season with a filing deadline in February 2015. The latest filing deadline in 2015 was inLouisiana on September 10.
The 2015 state legislative primaries started inNew Jersey on June 2 and ended on October 24 with a primary inLouisiana.
The state legislative filing deadlines and primary dates listed by month were as follows:
Filing deadlines
The number of days between the candidate filing deadline and primary election varies widely from state to state.
February
- Mississippi: February 27
March
- Virginia: March 9
- New Jersey: March 30
September
- Louisiana: September 10
Primaries
June
August
October
Length of primary campaignsWhile each state holds a primary, the amount of time betweensignature filing deadlines can differ greatly. In 2015, candidates running for state legislative office inLouisiana had just 44 days between their filing deadline and primary. Meanwhile, candidates inMississippi had 157 days, more than triple that of Louisiana, to campaign for the primary election. On average, candidates were given about 87 days between the filing deadline and primary election to get their message to voters. Elections by stateLouisiana
All 39 seats in theLouisiana State Senate and 105 seats in theLouisiana House of Representatives were up for election in 2015.[17] Republicans controlled both chambers heading into the election. Louisiana's state senators and state representatives serve four-year terms. Both chambers have term limits which prevent a state legislator from serving for more than three terms, or twelve years, in a particular chamber. Louisiana legislators assume office at noon on the second Monday in January after their election.[18][19]
Mississippi
All 52 seats in theMississippi State Senate and 122 seats in theMississippi House of Representatives were up for election in 2015.[20] Republicans controlled both chambers heading into the election. Mississippi's state legislators serve four-year terms. Mississippi legislators assume office the Tuesday after the first Monday of January.[21]
InDistrict 37,Robert Dearing (D) defeated incumbentMelanie Sojourner (R) by 64 votes. Sojourner formally challenged the outcome of the general election, claiming that there were irregularities at the polls. A Senate committee took up the challenge in January, and the chamber voted 47-3 to seat Dearing.[22][23]
New Jersey New Jersey did not hold anystate senate elections in 2015. New Jersey's state senators are elected to four-year terms. All 80 seats, two for each of 40 districts, were elected in2013.
All 80 seats in the Democrat-controlledNew Jersey General Assembly were up for election in 2015. New Jersey's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. New Jersey legislators assume office at noon on the second Tuesday in January following the election.[24]
Virginia
All 40 seats in theVirginia State Senate and 100 seats in theVirginia House of Delegates were up for election in 2015.[25] Republicans controlled both chambers heading into the election. Virginia's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Virginia's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Virginia legislators assume office the second Wednesday in January after the election.[26][27]
See also
Footnotes
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