Presidential Nominating Index: GOP elites tilt to Trump
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 Date:November 8, 2016 |
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January 27, 2016
On the eve of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, billionaire businessmanDonald Trump is the top pick of Republican Insiders to capture their party’s 2016 nomination. A Ballotpedia survey of 113 Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives found that roughly three-fourths of those surveyed ranked Trump as either their first or second choice as the candidate they thought was “most likely to capture the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.”
Trump garnered a Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index of .782, nearly double his .394 score in a similar survey conductedtwo months ago. Now he leads the GOP pack, but back in November, Trump trailed Florida Sen.Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov.Jeb Bush and Texas Sen.Ted Cruz in the standings. Trump’s latest Nominating Index is three times the .260 rating he scoredin September 2015.
Insiders tend to reflect “establishment” views, a segment of the Republican Party that has been suspicious of, if not hostile to, Trump. His rise in this survey suggests that GOP establishment has been trumped by the celebrity politician and may be reconciled to the prospect that he could be the party’s standard-bearer in 2016.
113 Republican Insiders were asked to rank the top five contenders for their party's 2016 presidential nomination. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 points, and so on. The Ballotpedia Presidential Nominating Index is determined by the percentage of points that each contender receives compared to the maximum possible points a contender could receive. For example, Trump earned a .782 index rating, having received 78% of the maximum possible 565 points—565 being how many points he would have received if all 113 Republican participants had ranked him first for the candidate most likely to win the nomination. |
Rubio, seen as a candidate who could still emerge as the party establishment’s choice, finished second to Trump with a Ballotpedia Nominating Index of .670. Right behind Rubio, Cruz earned a Ballotpedia Nominating Index of .595, a jump from his November rating and more than three times the Nominating Index he scored in September.
Bush, once the favorite in this survey—and blessed by much of GOP establishment—tumbled to the fourth place with a Nominating Index of .349. New Jersey Gov.Chris Christie and Ohio Gov.John Kasich round out middle tier of GOP contenders with Nominating Indexes of .278 and .235, respectively.
First-place vote breakdown  | Second-place vote breakdown  |
Less than a week before the Republican balloting begins, Trump’s clear frontrunner status in national and New Hampshire polls—as well as his narrower lead in theIowa surveys—puts him in a position to win the first two GOP nominating contests and overwhelm the Republican field. “Trump is likely [our] candidate if he can get Iowa and New Hampshire in his win column,” said one GOP Insider. “If Trump sweeps Iowa [and] New Hampshire he will be hard to stop,” echoed another GOP Insider. “If he does not, [the] race opens up again.” And a third predicted, “If Trump pulls upset in Iowa he will run the table.”
Others believe that if the race boils down to Trump and Cruz, Republican elites would side with the former. “The establishment that Cruz has so consistently berated, belittled and betrayed will break to Trump if one of their own cannot win,” maintained one GOP influential. “They will make sure that Cruz does not get the nomination.” Another Republican Insider elaborated, “Cruz is in the weakest position due his un-likability.”
One GOP Insider felt that the “Trump-Cruz war will annihilate one or both of them, while the ‘establishment’ vote starts to consolidate behind one alternative, and right now the most likely beneficiary will be Rubio.” But another GOP Insider acknowledged, “While Rubio still has a strategic advantage in an ‘anyone-but-Trump’ race, the establishment is weakening that rhetoric.” Added a third, “No doubt, along with most in this group, I qualify as a part of the ‘establishment.’ If we cannot nominate someone who is serious about both being a conservative and governing, then shame on us.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
While he is in a commanding position, most Insiders are not ready to concede the nomination to Trump. “It’s a three-man race, no need to rank anyone other than Cruz, Trump, and Rubio,” declared one GOP influential. What is startling about this view is that there seems to be little room for the one-time establishment favorite. “It is down to three, and none is named Bush,” said one GOP Insider. “Eventually it’s a three-person race between Cruz, Trump and fill-in-the blank,” said another. “My money is still on Rubio, but Christie or Kasich can still slip in. Bush would be number six, but the dream is dying.”
“Truth is, I have no earthly idea,” confessed one Republican Insider on the likely outcome of a race that has confounded the party establishment and many in the media. “Hoping Rubio, Kasich or Bush catch fire, but it is much easier to see a path to victory for Cruz or Trump.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted January 22-25.
See also
- Presidential Nominating Index: Republican Insiders turn to Rubio
- Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders
- Jeb Bush presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
