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Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District elections, 2012

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Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District
General Election Date
November 6, 2012
Primary Date
April 24, 2012
November 6 Election Winner:
Keith RothfusRepublican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Mark CritzDemocratic Party
Mark Critz.jpg
Pennsylvania U.S. House Elections
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2012 U.S. Senate Elections
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The12th Congressional District of Pennsylvania held an election for theU.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.

Republican challengerKeith Rothfus defeated incumbentMark Critz.[1]

Candidate Filing DeadlinePrimary ElectionGeneral Election
February 14, 2012
April 24, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Pennsylvania has aclosed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by March 25. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 7.[2]

See also:Pennsylvania elections, 2012

Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent wasMark Critz, (D), who assumed office in he won in a special election in 2010.

This was the first election usingdistrict maps based on data from the 2010 Census.Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District is located in the southwestern portion ofPennsylvania and includes Cambria, Somerset, Westmoreland, Allegheny and Beaver counties.[3]

This is the 12th Congressional District prior to the 2010redistricting.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic PartyMark Critz
Republican PartyKeith RothfusGreen check mark transparent.png


April 24, 2012, primary results

Democratic PartyDemocratic Primary

Republican PartyRepublican Primary

Election results

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2012
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    Democratic Mark CritzIncumbent48.3%163,589
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngKeith Rothfus51.7%175,352
Total Votes338,941
Source:Pennsylvania Department of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 Democratic Primary, 2012
CandidateVote %Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMark CritzIncumbent51.2%32,384
Jason AltmireIncumbent48.8%30,895
Total Votes63,279


Race background

Pennsylvania's 12th was considered to be a Tossup according to theNew York Times race ratings. Democratic incumbentMark Critz was challenged byKeith Rothfus (R) who narrowly lost in 2010. Critz had already defeated fellow Democratic incumbentJason Altmire in a primary upset.[5]

Republican challengerKeith Rothfus was included in theNational Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[6]

TheWashington Post listed theHouse of Representatives elections inPennsylvania in 2012 as one of the10 states that could determine whether Democrats would retake the House orRepublicans would hold their majority in 2013.[7]Ohio tied withPennsylvania for 9th on the list.[7]

Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice atThe New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive byThe Cook Political Report, including the race for Kentucky's 6th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[8]

List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[9] 

Democratic Toss Ups:

  1. Georgia-12
  2. Illinois-12
  3. Kentucky-6
  4. Nevada-4
  5. New York-27
  6. North Carolina-7
  7. Pennsylvania-12
  8. Utah-4

Republican Toss Ups:

  1. Arizona-1
  2. California-7
  3. California-10
  4. California-26
  5. California-36
  6. California-52
  7. Colorado-6
  8. Florida-18
  9. Illinois-11
  10. Illinois-13
  11. California-17
  12. Michigan-1
  13. Minnesota-8
  14. Nevada-3
  15. New Hampshire-1
  16. New York-18
  17. New York-19
  18. Ohio-16
  19. Texas-23

Endorsements

Key endorsements in the race include former President Bill Clinton, who headlined a rally for Critz in Beaver County, and the National Rifle Association, which announced its support for the conservative Democrat on October 7th.[10][11] In Rothfus' corner are the Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund and the Firearm Owners Against Crime, "Western Pennsylvania’s leading Second Amendment organization,” according to his campaign manager, in addition to the YG Action Fund. The latter has spent over $500,000 on ads disparaging Critz.[12]

Impact of Redistricting

See alsoRedistricting in Pennsylvania

The state of Pennsylvania lost one seat in the House of Representatives due to slow population growth. As a result, the redistricting committee dissolved the 12th Congressional District represented byMark Critz, and attached it to much of what wasJason Altmire's4th District, forcing the two incumbents into a primary challenge. Portions of Altmire's district were also pushed into the Pittsburgh-based district represented byMike Doyle.[13]

Politico rated the12th District race betweenMark Critz andJason Altmire one of thefive ugliest member vs. member battles.[14]

The12th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[15][16]

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

See also:FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Pennsylvania's 12th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[17]

  • 2012: 42D / 58R
  • 2010: 46D / 54R

Cook Political Report's PVI

See also:Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

In 2012,Cook Political Report released its updated figures on thePartisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country.Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District has a PVI of R+6, which is the 168th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won byJohn McCain (R), 55-45 percent overBarack Obama (D). In 2004,George W. Bush (R) won the district 54-46 percent overJohn Kerry (D).[18]

Polls

2012 General Election

Mark Critz vs. Keith Rothfus
PollMark Critz (D)Keith Rothfus (R)UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Democratic Poll
(September 23-25, 2012)
52%41%7%+/-4.9400
McLaughlin & Associates Poll
(September 19-20, 2012)
38%38%24%+/-4.9400
Benson Strategy Group Poll
(July 9-11, 2012)
44%38%18%+/-4.9400
PoliticsPA
(June 13-15, 2012)
46%36%18%+/-4.9402
AVERAGES 45% 38.25% 16.75% +/-4.9 400.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.

2012 Democratic Primary Polls

Jason Altmire vs. Mark Critz
PollJason Altmire (D)Mark Critz (D)Margin of errorSample size
[1]
(January 10-15, 2012)
50%43%+/-4.4503
[2]
(February 2-5, 2012)
47%37%+/-4.9400
[3]
(March 12-14, 2012)
55%31%+/-4.9400
[4]
(March 22-25, 2012)
45%38%+/-4.9400
[5]
(April 13-15, 2012)
43%39%+/-4.9400
AVERAGES 48% 37.6% +/-4.8 420.6
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email toeditor@ballotpedia.org.

Media

The following is a selection of audio and video for some of the District 12 candidates. Some were released by candidates, others by PACs or local media.

Mark Critz


Mark Critz, "Next Generation"[19]













Mark Critz, "House floor debate"[20]













Critz promises to create jobs for Western PA in "Fight for Them"

Keith Rothfus


Keith Rothfus chats with NRO[21]



Rothfus addresses accusations that he supports outsourcing to China in "Fortune"

Negative ads


This pro-Rothfus ad from the YG Network titled "Pennsylvania Values" warns "a vote for Critz is a vote for Obama"[22]













NRCC goes back on the offensive after debunking China ad[23]













Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee criticizes Rothfus in "Shanghai" ad[24]













Tom Smith, "Different"











PA SIEU said "Rothfus is not on your side"

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with theFederal Election Commission during the2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.

Mark Critz

Mark Critz (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[25]March 31, 2012$8,890.37$187,977.82$(45,008.03)$151,860.16
July Quarterly[26]July 15, 2012$232,183.89$605,504.43$(409,413.51)$428,274.81
October Quarterly[27]October 15, 2012$428,274.81$508,384.20$(572,360.76)$364,298.25
Pre-General[28]October 25, 2012$364,298.25$107,702.08$(228,760.44)$240,139.89
Running totals
$1,409,568.53$(1,255,542.74)

Keith Rothfus

Keith Rothfus (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
Pre-Primary[29]April 12, 2012$196,086.20$246,096.56$(57,691.23)$384,491.53
July Quarterly[30]June 30, 2012$384,491.53$391,211.36$(130,767.23)$644,935.66
October Quarterly[31]October 15, 2012$644,935.66$545,337.07$(1,017,412.65)$170,560.08
Pre-General[32]October 25, 2012$170,560.08$167,816.22$(192,301.01)$146,075.29
Running totals
$1,350,461.21$(1,398,172.12)

According to opensecrets.org September 30th report,Mark Critz raised $2,224,442 so far this cycle. Of that, Critz spent $1,869,034, leaving him with $364,298 cash on hand. Meanwhile,Keith Rothfus raised $1,422,091 and spent $1,275,905, leaving him with $173,095 cash on hand.[33] The website also evaluated the quality of the candidates' disclosures based on how often "the full name and occupation/employer" of a donor is included in the report. Critz was given a full disclosure rating of 84.6%, while Rothfus disclosed 85.9%.[33]

Satellite spending

As of April 14, the Service Employees International Union and the United Steelworkers have both spent money in the 12th District race. The SEIU has spent $5,547 while the United Steelworkers union has spent $1,738.[34]

Top Contributors

Altmire's top three contributors during the first cycle were EQT Corp, which donated $26,139; Ibis Tek, which donated $25,000 and Mepco LLC, which donated $17,000. Critz's top contributors are American Crystal Sugar, which gave $15,000; Rosebud Mining, which contributed $15,000; and Concurrent Technologies, which gave $12,500. Some of Rothfus' top contributors include Heinz & Co, which gave $6,000; HJ Heinz Co, which donated $5,500; and Concast, which gave $5,000.[35]

District history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Critz won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated Tim Burns in the general election.[36]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2010
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngMark CritzIncumbent50.8%94,056
    Republican Tim Burns49.2%91,170
Total Votes185,226

2010 Special Election

On May 18, 2010, Critz won election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated Tim Burns and Demo Agoris in the general election.[37]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 Special Election, 2010
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngMark CritzIncumbent52.6%70,915
    Republican Tim Burns45.1%60,740
    Libertarian Demo Agoris2.3%3,158
Total Votes134,813

2008

On November 4, 2008, John P. Murtha won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated William Russell in the general election.[38]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2008
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJohn MurthaIncumbent57.9%155,268
    Republican William Russell42.1%113,120
Total Votes268,388

2006

On November 7, 2006, John P. Murtha won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated William Russell in the general election.[39]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2006
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJohn MurthaIncumbent60.8%123,472
    Republican Diana Irey39.2%79,612
Total Votes203,084

2004

On November 2, 2004, John P. Murtha won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He ran unopposed in the general election.[40]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2004
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJohn MurthaIncumbent100%204,504
    RepublicanExpression error: Unexpected < operator.%
Total Votes204,504

2002

On November 5, 2002, John P. Murtha won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated Bill Choby in the general election.[41]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2002
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJohn MurthaIncumbent26.5%44,818
    Republican Bill Choby73.5%124,201
Total Votes169,019

2000

On November 7, 2000, John P. Murtha won re-election to theUnited States House of Representatives. He defeated Bill Choby in the general election.[42]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 12 General Election, 2000
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    DemocraticGreen check mark transparent.pngJohn MurthaIncumbent28%56,575
    Republican Bill Choby72%145,538
Total Votes202,113

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑Politico, "2012 House Race Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. ↑Pennsylvania Department of State, "Registration Deadlines," accessed June 28, 2012
  3. ↑Pennsylvania Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed July 30, 2012
  4. ↑Pittsburgh TribuneEdgeworth lawyer Rothfus planning another run at CongressDecember 12, 2011
  5. ↑New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
  6. ↑NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
  7. ↑7.07.1Washington Post, "The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012," accessed April 25, 2012
  8. ↑Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
  9. ↑The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
  10. ↑PoliticsPA, "NRA Backs Critz," October 8, 2012
  11. ↑PoliticsPA "Breaking: Clinton Backs Critz" accessed April 12, 2012
  12. ↑PoliticsPA, "GOP groups lines up 500K ad against Critz," September 21, 2012
  13. ↑Politico, "Pa. redistricting will pit Altmire vs. Critz" accessed April 14, 2012
  14. ↑Politico, "Congress 2012: The 5 ugliest member vs. member battles" accessed April 18, 2012
  15. ↑Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Pennsylvania's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
  16. ↑Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
  17. ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Pennsylvania," September 2012
  18. ↑Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
  19. ↑YouTube channel
  20. ↑YouTube channel
  21. ↑Keith Rothfus chats with NRO
  22. ↑"Pennsylvania Values," October 22, 2012
  23. ↑Shanghai
  24. ↑Shanghai
  25. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Mark Critz April Quarterly," accessed July 26, 2012
  26. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Mark Critz July Quarterly," accessed July 26, 2012
  27. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Mark Critz October Quarterly," October 15, 2012
  28. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Mark Critz Pre-General," October 25, 2012
  29. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Keith Rothfus Pre-Primary," April 12, 2012
  30. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Keith Rothfus July Quarterly," accessed July 27, 2012
  31. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Keith Rothfus October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
  32. ↑Federal Election Commission, "Keith Rothfus Pre-General," October 25, 2012
  33. ↑33.033.1Open Secrets.org, "2012 Race: Pennsylvania Congressional District 12," September 30, 2012
  34. ↑opensecrets.org, "Outside Spending" accessed April 14, 2012
  35. ↑opensecrets.org, "Top Contributors" accessed April 14, 2012
  36. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  37. ↑North Carolina Secretary of State, "Official Returns" accessed March 22, 2012
  38. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  39. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  40. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004"
  41. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002"
  42. ↑U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000"
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