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2018 Oregon Senate elections
General	November 6, 2018
Primary	May 15, 2018

Democrats maintained asupermajority in the 2018 elections for theOregon State Senate. After the election, Democrats controlled18 seats to Republicans'12. A total of17 seats out of the chamber's 30 were up for election on November 6, 2018.^[1] Before the election, Democrats held a 17-13 majority.

TheDemocratic Party maintained atrifecta in Oregon after the 2018 elections by keeping control of thestate Senate,state House, andgovernorship.

Because state senators in Oregon serve four-year terms, winning candidates in this election served through 2022 and played a role inOregon's redistricting process. In Oregon, the state legislature is primarily responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district lines.Read more below.

Oregon state senators serve staggered,four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.

The Oregon State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

For more information about the Democratic primary,click here.
For more information about the Republican primary,click here.

Post-election analysis

See also:State legislative elections, 2018

The Democratic Party maintained control of both chambers of the Oregon Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 17 out of 30 seats were up for election. Democrats increased their majority in the Oregon State Senate from 17-13 to 18-12. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and no incumbents were defeated in the general election.

The Oregon House of Representatives held elections for all 60 seats. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased from 35-25 to 38-22. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

• Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

Want more information?

• Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
• 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
• 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities

Candidates

See also:Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

Note: A list of candidates who cross-filed with multiple parties is included below the table.

Oregon State Senate General Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District 1	Shannon Souza	Dallas Heard (i)
District 3	Jeff Golden	Jessica Gomez
District 4	Floyd Prozanski (i)	Scott Rohter	Frank Lengele Jr. (Libertarian Party)
District 6	Lee Beyer (i)	Robert Schwartz
District 7	James Manning (i)
District 8	Sara Gelser Blouin (i)	Erik Parks	Bryan Eggiman (Libertarian Party)
District 10	Deb Patterson	Jackie Winters (i)
District 11	Peter Courtney (i)	Greg Warnock
District 13	Sarah Grider Did not make the ballot: Paul Diller	Kim Thatcher (i)
District 15	Chuck Riley (i)	Alexander Flores
District 16	Betsy Johnson (i)		Ray Biggs (Constitution Party)
District 17	Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (i)
District 19	Rob Wagner (i)	David Poulson
District 20	Charles Gallia	Alan Olsen (i)	Kenny Sernach (Libertarian Party)
District 24	Shemia Fagan
District 26	Chrissy Reitz	Chuck Thomsen (i)
District 30	Solea Kabakov	Cliff Bentz (i)

Political party key:
Democratic
Republican
Constitution PartyIndependent Party
Libertarian
Pacific Green Party of Oregon
Progressive Party
Working Families Party

Fusion voting candidates

• District 1:Shannon Souza
• District 3:Jeff Golden &Jessica Gomez (write-in)
• District 4:Floyd Prozanski (write-in) &Scott Rohter
• District 7:James Manning (write-in) (write-in)
• District 8:Sara Gelser (write-in)
• District 10:Deb Patterson &Jackie Winters (write-in)
• District 11:Peter Courtney &Greg Warnock (write-in)
• District 13:Sarah Grider &Kim Thatcher (write-in)
• District 15:Chuck Riley &Alexander Flores (write-in)
• District 16:Betsy Johnson (write-in) (write-in)
• District 17:Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (write-in) (write-in)
• District 19:Rob Wagner &David Poulson (write-in)
• District 20:Charles Gallia &Alan Olsen (write-in)
• District 24:Shemia Fagan (write-in)
• District 26:Chrissy Reitz &Chuck Thomsen (write-in)

Primary candidates

Oregon State Senate Primary Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District 1	Shannon Souza	Dallas Heard (i)
District 3	Julian Bell Athena Goldberg Jeff Golden  Kevin Stine	Curt Ankerberg Jessica Gomez
District 4	Floyd Prozanski (i)	Scott Rohter
District 6	Lee Beyer (i)	Christine Ruck Robert Schwartz
District 7	James Manning (i)
District 8	Sara Gelser Blouin (i)	Erik Parks
District 10	Timothy John Graham Deb Patterson	Jackie Winters (i)
District 11	Peter Courtney (i) Joyce Judy	Greg Warnock
District 13	Paul Diller Sarah Grider	Kim Thatcher (i)
District 15	Chuck Riley (i)	Monte Akers Alexander Flores
District 16	Betsy Johnson (i)
District 17	Elizabeth Steiner Hayward (i)
District 19	Rob Wagner (i)	David Poulson
District 20	Charles Gallia	Alan Olsen (i)
District 24	Rod Monroe (i) Shemia Fagan Kayse Jama
District 26	Chrissy Reitz	Chuck Thomsen (i)
District 30	Solea Kabakov	Cliff Bentz (i)

Margins of victory

See also:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

Amargin of victory (MOV) analysis for the2018 Oregon State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

• Elections won
• Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
• Elections won without opposition
• Average margin of victory^[2]

Oregon State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party	Elections won	Elections won by less than 10%	Unopposed elections	Average margin of victory[2]
Democratic	11	0	3	26.8%
Republican	6	3	0	16.4%
Other	0	0	0	N/A
Total	17	3	3	21.6%

The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Oregon State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District	Winning Party	Losing Party	Margin of Victory
Oregon State Senate District 26	Republican	Democratic	0.4%
Oregon State Senate District 20	Republican	Democratic	5.8%
Oregon State Senate District 10	Republican	Democratic	8.0%
Oregon State Senate District 3	Democratic	Republican	10.4%
Oregon State Senate District 13	Republican	Democratic	12.0%
Oregon State Senate District 6	Democratic	Republican	18.4%
Oregon State Senate District 15	Democratic	Republican	18.8%
Oregon State Senate District 4	Democratic	Republican	20.9%
Oregon State Senate District 11	Democratic	Republican	21.3%
Oregon State Senate District 8	Democratic	Republican	28.4%
Oregon State Senate District 1	Republican	Democratic	28.7%
Oregon State Senate District 19	Democratic	Republican	31.2%
Oregon State Senate District 30	Republican	Democratic	43.6%
Oregon State Senate District 16	Democratic	Constitution Party	65.1%
Oregon State Senate District 17	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Oregon State Senate District 7	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Oregon State Senate District 24	Democratic	None	Unopposed

Seats flipped

See also:State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in theOregon State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Oregon State Senate
District	Incumbent	2018 winner	Direction of flip
Oregon State Senate District 3	Alan DeBoer	Jeff Golden	R to D

Incumbents retiring

One incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.^[3] Those incumbents were:

Name	Party	Office
Alan DeBoer	Republican	Senate District 3

Process to become a candidate

See also:Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon

For major party candidates

See statutes:Chapter 249, Sections 020, 068 and 056 of the Oregon Revised Statutes

A major party candidate can gain access to the ballot via one of two methods: by paying a filing fee or by filing a nominating petition.

Filing fee

A candidate of a major party can have his or her name printed on the ballot by filing a declaration of candidacy with theOregon Secretary of State and paying the requisite filing fees. Filing fees are as follows:^[4][5][6]

Nominating petition

A candidate of a major party can have his or her name printed on the ballot by filing a nominating petition with the Oregon Secretary of State. Signature requirements are as follows:^[7]

For minor party candidates

Recognized minor parties (as defined inthis article) are not permitted to participate in primary elections and instead must select candidates by nominating convention.

For unaffiliated candidates

An unaffiliated candidate can gain access to the ballot via one of two methods: nomination by individual electors or nomination by an assembly of electors.

Nomination by individual electors

See statutes:Chapter 249, Section 740 of the Oregon Revised Statutes

An unaffiliated candidate must submit the appropriate filing form with the Oregon Secretary of State and obtain approval to circulate the nominating petition prior to collecting signatures. Once approval has been obtained, circulators must gather signatures equal to at least 1 percent of the total votes cast for all candidates for presidential electors in the most recent general election within the electoral district for which the nomination is being sought.^[8]

Nomination by assembly of electors

See statutes:Chapter 249, Section 735 of the Oregon Revised Statutes

The process for nomination by assembly of electors is described below:^[9][10]

• File Preliminary Certificate: Submit a draft certificate (minus signatures) to the Secretary of State, including a statement on paid circulators.
• Announce Assembly: Not later than 10 days before a single‑day, 12‑hour meeting, publish notice once in three local newspapers; include date/time, office(s), and 25 or more petitioning electors.^[11]
• Hold Assembly: Convene at the published time and place with the statutory minimum voters (250 for local/state legislative; 500 for U.S. House; 1,000 for statewide/U.S. Senate), record each elector’s name/address and votes in the minutes.
• Finalize Nomination: File the certified minutes and publication affidavit with the Secretary of State (or county clerk); signatures in the minutes are then verified and the nomination is accepted.^[12][13]

Signature requirements for nomination by an assembly of electors are described in the table below.

For write-in candidates

Write-in candidates are not required to submit candidate filing forms in advance. In the event that a write-in candidate is nominated or elected, the election official will notify the candidate by sending a write-in acceptance form.^[14] To accept the nomination or office, the candidate must complete, sign, and return the form to the election official.

Qualifications

See also:State legislature candidate requirements by state

Article 4, Section 8 of theOregon Constitution states:

• No person shall be a Senator or Representative who at the time of election is not a citizen of the United States; nor anyone who has not been for one year next preceding the election an inhabitant of the district from which the Senator or Representative may be chosen. However, for purposes of the general election next following the operative date of an apportionment under section 6 of this Article, the person must have been an inhabitant of the district from January 1 of the year following the reapportionment to the date of the election.
• Senators and Representatives shall be at least twenty one years of age.
• No person shall be a Senator or Representative who has been convicted of a felony during:
  • The term of office of the person as a Senator or Representative; or
  • The period beginning on the date of the election at which the person was elected to the office of Senator or Representative and ending on the first day of the term of office to which the person was elected.
• No person is eligible to be elected as a Senator or Representative if that person has been convicted of a felony and has not completed the sentence received for the conviction prior to the date that person would take office if elected. As used in this subsection, “sentence received for the conviction” includes a term of imprisonment, any period of probation or post-prison supervision and payment of a monetary obligation imposed as all or part of a sentence.
• Notwithstanding sections 11 and 15, Article IV of this Constitution:
  • The office of a Senator or Representative convicted of a felony during the term to which the Senator or Representative was elected or appointed shall become vacant on the date the Senator or Representative is convicted.
  • A person elected to the office of Senator or Representative and convicted of a felony during the period beginning on the date of the election and ending on the first day of the term of office to which the person was elected shall be ineligible to take office and the office shall become vacant on the first day of the next term of office.
• Subject to subsection (4) of this section, a person who is ineligible to be a Senator or Representative under subsection (3) of this section may:
  • Be a Senator or Representative after the expiration of the term of office during which the person is ineligible; and
  • Be a candidate for the office of Senator or Representative prior to the expiration of the term of office during which the person is ineligible.
• No person shall be a Senator or Representative who at all times during the term of office of the person as a Senator or Representative is not an inhabitant of the district from which the Senator or Representative may be chosen or served on represent. A person shall not lose status as an inhabitant of a district if the person is absent from the district for purposes of business of the Legislative Assembly. Following the operative date of an apportionment under section 6 of this Article, until the expiration of the term of office of the person, a person may be an inhabitant of any district.

Salaries and per diem

See also:Comparison of state legislative salaries

When sworn in

See also:When state legislators assume office after a general election

Oregon legislators assume office the second Monday in January following the election.^[16]

Oregon political history

See also:Partisan composition of state senates andState government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, Democrats increased their majority in the Oregon State Senate from 17-13 to 18-12.

2016

In the2016 elections, Democrats lost one seat from their majority in the Oregon State Senate, going from 18-12 to 17-13.

Trifectas

Astate government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Democrats in Oregon gained astate government trifecta as a result of the 2012 elections by regaining control of the state House. The state House was split 30-30 after the 2010 elections. Democrats also held a trifecta from 2006 until 2010.

Wave election analysis

See also:Wave elections (1918-2016)

The termwave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makessignificant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from PresidentWoodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 toDonald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016.We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition tostate legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose494 seats for 2018 to qualify as awave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016.Click here to read the full report.

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »

Historical context

See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Redistricting in Oregon

See also:Redistricting in Oregon

Because state senators in Oregon serve four-year terms, winning candidates in this election served through 2022 and played a role inOregon's redistricting process. In Oregon, the state legislature is primarily responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district lines. If the legislature fails to approve a state legislative district map, the secretary of state must draw the boundaries. There is no similar backup provision for congressional redistricting.

Redistricting after the 2010 Census

Following the 2010 United States Census, Oregon neither gained nor lost congressional seats. On June 10, 2011, thestate legislature approved a state legislative redistricting plan. It was signed into law on June 13, 2011. The state legislature approved a congressional redistricting plan on June 30, 2011, and it was signed into law by the governor on the same day.^[20]

Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—arePivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election,Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote.Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Oregon. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.^[21][22]

See also

• Oregon State Senate
• Oregon State Legislature
• State legislative elections, 2018
• Oregon state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
• Oregon state legislative Republican primaries, 2018

External links

Suggest a link

• Oregon State Legislature

Footnotes

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