Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia



2022
2018
Oregon's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: May 19, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Walden (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Oregon
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Oregon's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th
Oregon elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

AllU.S. congressional districts, including the2nd Congressional District of Oregon, held elections in 2020.

Cliff Bentz won election in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2.

Candidate filing deadlinePrimary electionGeneral election
March 10, 2020
May 19, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent wasRepublicanGreg Walden, who was first elected in 1998.

As of the2010 redistricting cycle,Oregon's 2nd Congressional District was located in the eastern portion of thestate. The district included Baker, Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Grant, Harney, Hood River, Jackson, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Malheur, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Wasco, and Wheeler counties and a part of Josephine County.[2]

Democratic PartyFor more information about the Democratic primary,click here.
Republican PartyFor more information about the Republican primary,click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled byDaily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Oregon's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
RacePresidentialU.S. House
Democratic candidateDemocratic Party42.136.9
Republican candidateRepublican Party55.659.9
Difference13.523

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also:Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of thecoronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Oregon did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak,click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Cliff Bentz defeatedAlex Spenser andRobert Werch in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Cliff Bentz
Cliff Bentz (R)
 
59.9
 
273,835
Image of Alex Spenser
Alex Spenser (D) Candidate Connection
 
36.9
 
168,881
Image of Robert Werch
Robert Werch (L) Candidate Connection
 
3.1
 
14,094
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
623

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 457,433
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Alex Spenser defeatedNick Heuertz,Chris Vaughn,Jack Howard, andJohn Holm in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Alex Spenser
Alex Spenser Candidate Connection
 
32.1
 
23,482
Image of Nick Heuertz
Nick Heuertz Candidate Connection
 
31.0
 
22,685
Image of Chris Vaughn
Chris Vaughn Candidate Connection
 
18.2
 
13,351
Image of Jack Howard
Jack Howard Candidate Connection
 
8.3
 
6,047
Image of John Holm
John Holm
 
8.1
 
5,908
 Other/Write-in votes
 
2.4
 
1,734

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 73,207
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 19, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Cliff Bentz
Cliff Bentz
 
31.3
 
37,488
Image of Knute Buehler
Knute Buehler
 
22.1
 
26,405
Image of Jason Atkinson
Jason Atkinson
 
19.5
 
23,274
Image of Jimmy Crumpacker
Jimmy Crumpacker
 
18.0
 
21,507
Image of Travis Fager
Travis Fager Candidate Connection
 
3.6
 
4,265
Image of Jeff Smith
Jeff Smith Candidate Connection
 
2.1
 
2,539
Justin Livingston
 
1.1
 
1,350
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
1,336
Image of David Campbell
David Campbell Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
418
Image of Glenn Carey
Glenn Carey
 
0.2
 
283
Image of Kenneth Medenbach
Kenneth Medenbach Candidate Connection
 
0.2
 
267
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
450

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source 1 Source 2

Total votes: 119,582
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Robert Werch advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on July 6, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Robert Werch
Robert Werch (L) Candidate Connection

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

Two of 36 Oregon counties—5.6 percent—arePivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
CountyTrump margin of victory in 2016Obama margin of victory in 2012Obama margin of victory in 2008
Columbia County, Oregon11.46%5.16%12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon5.58%4.86%9.89%

In the 2016 presidential election,Hillary Clinton (D) won Oregon with 50.1 percent of the vote.Donald Trump (R) received 39.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Oregon cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Oregon supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 56.7 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Oregon. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 39 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 26.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 24 out of 60 state House districts in Oregon with an average margin of victory of 24 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.
2016 presidential results by state House district
DistrictObamaRomney2012 MarginClintonTrump2016 MarginParty Control
137.15%59.91%R+22.830.45%63.42%R+33R
235.86%61.05%R+25.227.65%65.58%R+37.9R
338.59%58.64%R+20.132.16%60.97%R+28.8R
434.06%63.51%R+29.427.52%66.33%R+38.8R
560.76%35.69%D+25.158.86%33.66%D+25.2D
643.64%53.69%R+1040.10%52.36%R+12.3R
740.94%55.86%R+14.932.79%59.77%R+27R
868.36%28.03%D+40.365.84%26.50%D+39.3D
949.44%47.54%D+1.940.23%52.56%R+12.3D
1055.67%41.16%D+14.547.25%45.02%D+2.2D
1155.39%41.57%D+13.850.86%41.87%D+9D
1256.62%40.21%D+16.449.34%41.70%D+7.6D
1363.69%32.89%D+30.862.35%29.39%D+33D
1457.20%40.05%D+17.151.09%40.77%D+10.3D
1544.80%52.00%R+7.239.46%51.33%R+11.9R
1668.67%27.22%D+41.469.48%20.98%D+48.5D
1736.23%60.65%R+24.427.71%64.47%R+36.8R
1838.39%59.05%R+20.733.45%58.97%R+25.5R
1944.87%52.96%R+8.142.46%50.19%R+7.7R
2050.99%46.50%D+4.549.71%42.02%D+7.7D
2157.81%39.39%D+18.453.19%38.56%D+14.6D
2254.27%42.99%D+11.352.07%40.38%D+11.7D
2343.15%54.01%R+10.936.74%55.52%R+18.8R
2447.77%49.67%R+1.944.83%46.73%R+1.9R
2543.43%54.28%R+10.840.87%50.61%R+9.7R
2649.24%48.65%D+0.651.80%40.43%D+11.4R
2762.96%34.72%D+28.266.84%25.48%D+41.4D
2859.90%37.33%D+22.659.87%31.58%D+28.3D
2954.53%42.09%D+12.452.00%38.65%D+13.4D
3056.91%40.02%D+16.957.59%33.00%D+24.6D
3152.12%44.60%D+7.544.06%47.64%R+3.6D
3252.75%44.09%D+8.745.64%46.09%R+0.5D
3365.90%31.83%D+34.172.64%20.98%D+51.7D
3463.85%33.25%D+30.667.22%24.53%D+42.7D
3560.70%36.93%D+23.863.83%28.39%D+35.4D
3679.34%17.38%D+6282.77%11.05%D+71.7D
3752.79%45.42%D+7.457.22%35.31%D+21.9R
3865.77%32.10%D+33.771.88%22.01%D+49.9D
3942.78%55.07%R+12.338.83%54.39%R+15.6R
4053.15%44.33%D+8.849.14%42.74%D+6.4D
4170.80%26.25%D+44.570.28%22.34%D+47.9D
4287.06%7.84%D+79.287.10%6.08%D+81D
4389.37%6.92%D+82.589.00%5.40%D+83.6D
4482.65%13.55%D+69.181.66%11.41%D+70.2D
4579.69%17.31%D+62.480.42%13.55%D+66.9D
4679.45%16.72%D+62.780.06%13.10%D+67D
4766.01%31.23%D+34.863.57%29.15%D+34.4D
4861.00%36.01%D+2559.27%32.83%D+26.4D
4957.08%40.26%D+16.851.57%40.49%D+11.1D
5054.82%42.75%D+12.151.27%41.12%D+10.2D
5153.04%44.74%D+8.350.91%41.90%D+9D
5251.53%45.97%D+5.646.57%45.78%D+0.8R
5340.98%56.77%R+15.839.36%53.26%R+13.9R
5454.38%42.95%D+11.455.64%35.94%D+19.7R
5532.25%65.13%R+32.924.43%69.92%R+45.5R
5628.24%69.10%R+40.923.76%69.30%R+45.5R
5732.89%64.08%R+31.227.24%65.33%R+38.1R
5833.98%63.22%R+29.227.37%65.78%R+38.4R
5942.10%55.62%R+13.536.82%56.07%R+19.3R
6026.45%70.57%R+44.120.38%73.39%R+53R
Total54.64%42.46%D+12.251.96%40.57%D+11.4-
Source:Daily Kos


District analysis

See also:The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also:FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Oregon's 2nd Congressional District the 120th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.15. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.15 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from theFederal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or onspending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to theFederal Election Commission.

NamePartyReceipts*Disbursements**Cash on handDate
Alex SpenserDemocratic Party$25,855$25,525$330 As of December 31, 2020
Cliff BentzRepublican Party$1,452,634$1,363,581$89,054 As of December 31, 2020
Robert WerchLibertarian Party$0$0$0Data not available***

Source:Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

*According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
**According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also:Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets:The Cook Political Report,Inside Elections,Sabato's Crystal Ball, andDDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe andSolid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Oregon in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Oregon, clickhere.

Filing requirements, 2020
StateOfficePartySignatures requiredSignature formulaFiling feeFiling fee formulaFiling deadlineSource
Oregon2nd Congressional DistrictMajor party0N/A$100.00Fixed number3/10/2020Source
Oregon2nd Congressional DistrictUnaffiliated4,0501% of votes cast in the district for presidentN/AN/A8/25/2020Source

District election history

2018

See also:Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Oregon District 2

IncumbentGreg Walden defeatedJamie McLeod-Skinner andMark Roberts in the general election for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Walden
Greg Walden (R)
 
56.3
 
207,597
Image of Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D)
 
39.4
 
145,298
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts (Independent Party of Oregon) Candidate Connection
 
4.2
 
15,536
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
278

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 368,709
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Jamie McLeod-Skinner
 
43.7
 
25,351
Image of Jennifer Neahring
Jennifer Neahring
 
24.2
 
14,020
Image of Jim Crary
Jim Crary
 
11.7
 
6,774
Image of Timothy White
Timothy White
 
6.0
 
3,469
Image of Raz Mason
Raz Mason
 
5.4
 
3,137
Image of Eric Burnette
Eric Burnette
 
4.7
 
2,734
Image of Michael Byrne
Michael Byrne
 
4.4
 
2,546

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 58,031
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

IncumbentGreg Walden defeatedPaul Romero andRandy Pollock in the Republican primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Walden
Greg Walden
 
77.6
 
71,543
Image of Paul Romero
Paul Romero
 
16.5
 
15,181
Randy Pollock
 
6.0
 
5,514

Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents arebolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 92,238
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

Independent Party of Oregon primary election

Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2

Mark Roberts advanced from the Independent Party of Oregon primary for U.S. House Oregon District 2 on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mark Roberts
Mark Roberts Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
3,441

Ballotpedia Logo

There were noincumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 3,441
Candidate Connection = candidate completed theBallotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you,complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data?Contact our sales team.

2016

See also:Oregon's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpediarated this race as safely Republican. IncumbentGreg Walden (R) defeatedJim Crary (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Walden defeatedPaul Romero in the Republican primary on May 17, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, Oregon District 2 General Election, 2016
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngGreg WaldenIncumbent71.7%272,952
    Democratic Jim Crary28%106,640
    N/A Misc.0.3%1,147
Total Votes380,739
Source:Oregon Secretary of State


U.S. House, Oregon District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
CandidateVote %Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGreg WaldenIncumbent80.1%85,039
Paul Romero19.9%21,099
Total Votes106,138
Source:Oregon Secretary of State

2014

See also:Oregon's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Oregon held an election for theU.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. IncumbentGreg Walden (R) defeatedAelea Christofferson (D) andSharon Durbin (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Oregon District 2 General Election, 2014
PartyCandidateVote %Votes
    RepublicanGreen check mark transparent.pngGreg WaldenIncumbent70.4%202,374
    Democratic Aelea Christofferson25.7%73,785
    Libertarian Sharon Durbin3.6%10,491
    Miscellaneous Miscellaneous0.3%775
Total Votes287,425
Source:Oregon Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.01.1Oregon is a vote-by-mail state. Polling hours apply to vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. Oregon Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 9, 2012
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. Inside Electionsalso usesTiltratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. Oregon Secretary of State, "Candidate filings search results," accessed March 9, 2016
  14. The New York Times, "Oregon Primary Results," May 17, 2016


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