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2018 North Dakota Senate elections
General	November 6, 2018
Primary	June 12, 2018

Republicans held theirsupermajority in the 2018 elections forNorth Dakota State Senate, winning18 seats to Democrats'6 and establishing a37-10 majority.Twenty-four seats out of the chamber's 47 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 38-9 majority.

TheRepublican Party maintained its trifecta in North Dakota in 2018 by holding its majorities in thestate Senate andHouse. The governor's office, held byDoug Burgum (R), was not up for election.

Because state senators in North Dakota serve four-year terms, winning candidates in the 2018 election served through 2022 and played a role inNorth Dakota's redistricting process—the drawing of boundary lines for congressional and state legislative districts.Read more below.

The North Dakota State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

North Dakota state senators serve staggered,four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.

For more information about the Democratic primary,click here.
For more information about the Republican primary,click here

Post-election analysis

See also:State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintainedsupermajority status in both chambers of the North Dakota Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 24 out of 47 seats were up for election. The Republican North Dakota State Senate supermajority was reduced from 38-9 to 37-10. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.

The North Dakota House of Representatives held elections for 48 out of 94 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 80-13 to 79-15. One seat was vacant before the election. One Republican incumbent was defeated in the primary and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

• Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

Want more information?

• Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
• 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
• 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities

Candidates

See also:Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

North Dakota State Senate elections, 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District 1	Melissa Johnson	Brad Bekkedahl (i)
District 3	Joseph Nesdahl	Oley Larsen (i)	Andrew Maragos (Independent)
District 5	David Grimes Haugen	Randy Burckhard (i)
District 7		Nicole Poolman (i)
District 9	Richard Marcellais (i)
District 11	Tim Mathern (i)	Todd McMichael
District 13	Carrie Leopold	Judy Lee (i)
District 15	Barbara Vondell	Dave Oehlke (i)
District 17	Phyllis Johnson	Ray Holmberg (i)
District 19	Nikolaus Groenewold	Robert Fors
District 21	Kathy Hogan	Sierra Heitkamp
District 23	Joan Heckaman (i)	Judy Estenson
District 25	Perry Miller	Larry Luick (i)
District 27	Quinn Joseph Garrick	Kristin Roers
District 29	Katherine Roth	Terry Wanzek (i)
District 31	Rachele Hall	Donald Schaible (i)
District 33		Jessica Unruh-Bell (i)
District 35	Erin Oban (i)	Gary Emineth
District 37	R. Travis Brazelton	Rich Wardner (i)
District 39		Dale Patten
District 41	Paula Thomas	Kyle Davison (i)
District 43	JoNell Bakke	Lonnie Laffen (i)
District 45	Danielle Pinnick	Ronald Sorvaag (i)
District 47	Brandi Jude	Mike Dwyer

Primary election candidates

The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the North Dakota Secretary of State on April 10, 2018.^[1](I) denotes an incumbent.

2018 North Dakota State Senate primary candidates
District	Democrat	Republican	Other
1	Melissa Johnsona	Brad Bekkedahl(I)a
3	Joseph Nesdahla	Oley Larsen(I)a
5	David Grimes Haugena	Randy Burckhard(I)a
7		Nicole Poolman(I)a
9	Richard Marcellais(I)a
11	Tim Mathern(I)a	Todd McMichaela
13	Carrie Leopolda	Judy Lee(I)a
15	Barbara Vondella	Dave Oehlke(I)a
17	Phyllis Johnsona	Ray Holmberg(I)a
19	Nikolaus Groenewolda	Robert Forsa Carrie Wallace
21	Kathy Hogana	Sierra Heitkampa
23	Joan Heckaman(I)a	Judy Estensona
25	Perry Millera	Larry Luick(I)a
27	Quinn Joseph Garricka	Kristin Roersa
29	Katherine Rotha	Terry Wanzek(I)a
31	Rachele Halla	Donald Schaible(I)a
33		Jessica K. Unruh(I)a
35	Erin Oban(I)a	Gary Eminetha
37	R. Travis Brazeltona	Rich Wardner(I)a
39		Dale Pattena
41	Paula Thomasa	Kyle Davison(I)a
43	JoNell Bakkea	Lonnie Laffen(I)a
45	Danielle Pinnicka	Ronald Sorvaag(I)a
47	Brandi Judea	Mike Dwyer (North Dakota|Mike Dwyer]]a
Notes	• An(I) denotes an incumbent.
	• Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email ourElections Project.

Margins of victory

See also:Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

Amargin of victory (MOV) analysis for the2018 North Dakota State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

• Elections won
• Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
• Elections won without opposition
• Average margin of victory^[2]

North Dakota State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party	Elections won	Elections won by less than 10%	Unopposed elections	Average margin of victory[2]
Democratic	6	3	1	15.7%
Republican	18	2	3	29.1%
Other	0	0	0	N/A
Total	24	5	4	22.4%

The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

North Dakota State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District	Winning Party	Losing Party	Margin of Victory
North Dakota State Senate District 25	Republican	Democratic	0.3%
North Dakota State Senate District 41	Republican	Democratic	3.2%
North Dakota State Senate District 43	Democratic	Republican	5.3%
North Dakota State Senate District 35	Democratic	Republican	8.8%
North Dakota State Senate District 23	Democratic	Republican	9.0%
North Dakota State Senate District 27	Republican	Democratic	11.4%
North Dakota State Senate District 13	Republican	Democratic	17.1%
North Dakota State Senate District 17	Republican	Democratic	18.2%
North Dakota State Senate District 45	Republican	Democratic	19.2%
North Dakota State Senate District 11	Democratic	Republican	24.5%
North Dakota State Senate District 3	Republican	Independent	29.2%
North Dakota State Senate District 31	Republican	Democratic	30.2%
North Dakota State Senate District 21	Democratic	Republican	31.0%
North Dakota State Senate District 47	Republican	Democratic	33.9%
North Dakota State Senate District 15	Republican	Democratic	35.6%
North Dakota State Senate District 19	Republican	Democratic	36.4%
North Dakota State Senate District 5	Republican	Democratic	38.8%
North Dakota State Senate District 29	Republican	Democratic	41.4%
North Dakota State Senate District 1	Republican	Democratic	58.4%
North Dakota State Senate District 37	Republican	Democratic	62.9%
North Dakota State Senate District 33	Republican	None	Unopposed
North Dakota State Senate District 39	Republican	None	Unopposed
North Dakota State Senate District 7	Republican	None	Unopposed
North Dakota State Senate District 9	Democratic	None	Unopposed

Seats flipped

See also:State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in theNorth Dakota State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, North Dakota State Senate
District	Incumbent	2018 winner	Direction of flip
North Dakota State Senate District 43	Lonnie Laffen	JoNell Bakke	R to D

Incumbents retiring

Five incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.^[3] Those incumbents were:

Name	Party	Office
Tom Campbell	Republican	Senate District 19
Carolyn Nelson	Democratic	Senate District 21
Jon Casper	Republican	Senate District 27
Bill Bowman	Republican	Senate District 39
Ralph Kilzer	Republican	Senate District 47

Process to become a candidate

See also:Ballot access requirements for political candidates in North Dakota

For party candidates

See statutes:Chapter 16.1-11, Section 6 of the North Dakota Century Code

A candidate seeking the nomination of a recognized political party can submit a petition/certificate of nomination, an affidavit of candidacy, and a statement of interests in order to have his or her name printed on the primary ballot. A petition/certificate of nomination must include the following information:^[4]

• the candidate's name, post office address, and telephone number
• the title of the office being sought
• the name of the party the candidate seeks to represent

For statewide partisan offices (including congressional offices), petitions must contain signatures equaling 3 percent of the total number of votes cast for the party's candidate for the same office in the last general election. No more than 300 signatures, however, may be required for such offices.^[4][5][6]

For state legislative offices, petitions must contain signatures equaling least 1 percent of the total resident population of the legislative district according to the most recent federal census.^[7]

In addition to petitions/certificates of nomination, candidates must also file affidavits of candidacy, which require basic information about the candidate. Any candidate for state executive or legislative office (excluding federal candidates) must also file a statement of interests, which details the candidate's sources of income and any businesses or organizations in which he or she has a financial or fiduciary responsibility.^[8][9][10]

Candidates for federal, statewide executive, or state legislative office must file the aforementioned paperwork with theNorth Dakota Secretary of State by 4:00 p.m. on the 64th day before the election.^[4][7][6]

For independent candidates

See statutes:Chapter 16.1-12 of the North Dakota Century Code

Independent candidates petition for placement on the general election ballot. Like party candidates, an independent candidate must file a petition/certificate of nomination, an affidavit of candidacy, and a statement of interests. Signature requirements for independent candidates differ from those to which party candidates are held. Signature requirements for independent candidates are summarized in the table below.^[11]

Completed filing paperwork must be submitted to the North Dakota Secretary of State office by 4:00 p.m. on the 64th day before the general election.^[7][6][12]

For write-in candidates

In order to have his or her votes tallied, a write-in candidate for federal, statewide, or state legislative office must submit a certificate of write-in candidacy to the North Dakota Secretary of State. Certificates for federal and statewide candidates are due by 4:00 p.m. on the 21st day prior to the election. Certificates for state legislative candidates are due by 4:00 p.m. on the fourth day prior to the election. The certificate must include the candidate's name, address, and office being sought. Along with this form, the candidate must also submit a statement of interests (the same as that submitted by party and independent candidates).^{[7][6][13][14]}</ref>

Qualifications

See also:State legislature candidate requirements by state

Article 4, Section 5 of theNorth Dakota Constitution states: State Senators and Representatives must be, on the day of the election, qualified voters in the district from which they are chosen and a resident of the state for one year preceding election to office.

Salaries and per diem

See also:Comparison of state legislative salaries

When sworn in

See also:When state legislators assume office after a general election

North Dakota legislators assume office December 1st.^[16]

North Dakota political history

See also:Partisan composition of state senates andState government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, Republicans maintained their majority in the North Dakota State Senate.

2016

In the 2016 elections, Republicans maintained their majority in the North Dakota State Senate. Republicans gained six seats in the election.

Trifectas

Astate government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in North Dakota held astate government trifecta for 23 years between 1992 to 2017.

Wave election analysis

See also:Wave elections (1918-2016)

The termwave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makessignificant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from PresidentWoodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 toDonald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016.We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition tostate legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose494 seats for 2018 to qualify as awave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016.Click here to read the full report.

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »

Historical context

See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Redistricting in North Dakota

See also:Redistricting in North Dakota

Because state senators in North Dakota serve four-year terms, winning candidates in the 2018 election served through 2022 and played a role inNorth Dakota's redistricting process—the drawing of boundary lines for congressional and state legislative districts. Prior to 2020-2021, redistricting last took place in North Dakota from 2010-2011.

State process

Because North Dakota has only one congressional district, congressional redistricting is not necessary. Thestate legislature draws state legislative district boundaries. State legislative district lines are subject to veto by thegovernor.^[20]

TheNorth Dakota Constitution requires that state legislative districts be "compact and contiguous."^[20][21]

Pivot Counties

See also:Pivot Counties by state

Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—arePivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted forBarack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and forDonald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election,Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote.Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.^[22]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in North Dakota. Click[show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled byDaily Kos.^[23][24]

See also

• North Dakota State Senate
• North Dakota State Legislature
• State legislative elections, 2018
• North Dakota state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
• North Dakota state legislative Republican primaries, 2018

External links

Suggest a link

• North Dakota State Legislature

Footnotes

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