Nevada State Senate elections, 2016

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2016 Nevada
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PrimaryJune 14, 2016
GeneralNovember 8, 2016
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State legislative elections in 2016

Democrats won control of both theNevada State Senate and theNevada State Assembly in the2016 general election. This broke the Republicantrifecta previously held in the state. Democrats were able to flip one Senate seat, which was all that they needed to gain control of the chamber. Assembly Democrats were also able to win a majority, picking up 10 seats and moving to a 12-seat majority.

State SenatorPatricia Farley said shortly after the election that she would change her party affiliation from Republican to nonpartisan with the intention of caucusing with Democrats.[1] The change in Farley's party affiliation gave the Democratic Caucus a three-seat majority.

A total of11 seats out of the 21 seats in theNevada State Senate were up for election in 2016. Nevada state senators serve staggered,four-year terms, such that every two years half of the Senate is up for election. Originally, 10 seats were up for election, butDistrict 13 was added after the death of Sen.Debbie Smith (D) on February 21, 2016. The District 13 race filled the remainder of Smith's term, which would have been up for re-election in November 2018.[2]

Heading into the general election, Nevada was one of 23 Republicanstate government trifectas. All three areas of the Nevada state government—the state Assembly, the state Senate, and the office of the governor—were controlled by the Republican Party.

Both the state Senate and state Assembly were considered at risk of flipping to Democratic control.Democrats indeed proceeded to flip both chambers, breaking up the state's Republican trifecta. Republicans held a one-seat majority in the Senate and a seven-seat majority in the Assembly prior to the election.

A Ballotpedia analysis identified theNevada State Senate asone of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • No senators were term-limited in 2016.
  • Democrats targeted two open districts previously held by Republicans.
  • Republicans and Democrats faced off in eight districts total; only four seats were competitive or mildly competitive in 2012.[3]
  • This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
    Click here to read the full list.

    Introduction

    Elections for theNevada State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 18, 2016.

    Majority control

    See also:Partisan composition of state senates

    Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Nevada State Senate:

    Nevada State Senate
    PartyAs of November 7, 2016After November 8, 2016
        Democratic Party1011
        Republican Party1110
    Total2121

    Retired incumbents

    One incumbent senator did not run for re-election in 2016. The incumbent was:

    NamePartyCurrent Office
    Mark LipparelliEnds.pngRepublicanSenate District 6

    Note:District 13 andDistrict 15 were vacant untilJulia Ratti (D) andJesse Haw (R) were appointed to the seats on September 27, 2016. The two seats were previously held by the lateDebbie Smith (D) andGreg Brower (R).

    Context of the 2016 elections

    TheNevada State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target.[4] TheRepublican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

    The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) namedAssembly District 25 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[5]

    TheDemocratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) namedSenate District 15 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7]

    As of June 10, 2016, the Senate Democratic Caucus raised $249,207, while the Republican Caucus raised $99,500.[8][9]

    The $1.4 billion tax package and education initiatives passed by the Republican-led legislature in the last legislative session were among the top issues for Nevada voters.[10]

    In 2016, voter turnout was expected to be high not only because of the presidential election, but also due to the open seat left by outgoingU.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D).[11]

    In 2014, the Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as a battleground chamber, ultimately flipping to Republican control. Even with eight overall retirements due to term limits, the state Assembly unexpectedly showed a much larger flip, changing from a 27-15 Democratic majority to a 27-15 Republican majority. This prompted the Assembly Democratic Caucus to raise nearly $350,000 in 2015; in comparison, the Assembly Republican Caucus raised nearly $24,000. In the Senate, the Democratic Caucus raised over $270,000; the Republican Caucus raised about $84,000.Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson (R) told theNevada Appeal that he anticipated being outraised due to ideological differences between incumbents and donors as well as a lack of contributions to the caucus fund by outgoing or defeated Republicans; he said that the numbers do not foreshadow the outcome of the elections.[12]

    Sen.Aaron Ford (D), leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, said on the 2014 election that "[t]he turnout in 2014 was less of a red wave and more of a blue boycott. I think there has been a lot of introspection that has taken place since then. We plan to capitalize on the enthusiasm we already see out there in the Democratic arena to ensure we regain the majority."[13] Ford went on to explain that Democrats were targeting District 6, District 15, and District 18 in the state Senate. The Republican caucus was focusing on District 5 and District 6. Sen.Ben Kieckhefer (R) believed that Republicans would be able to hold on to the state Senate. Kieckhefer said, "We need to win one of them to hold the majority and we’re pretty confident we are going to be able to do that."[13]


    Races we watched

    Ballotpedia identified seven notable Nevada state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests.

    Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Nevada races »

    General election contests

    State Senate District 5

    District 5 featured a closely divided race between Republicans and Democrats.
    Joyce Woodhouse(Inc.) (D)     Carrie Buck (R)      Tim Hagan (Lib.)     

    State Senate District 6

    A Republican representative and a Democrat faced off for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.
    Nicole Cannizzaro (D)     Victoria Seaman (R)      

    State Senate District 15

    A Republican, a Democrat, and a Libertarian competed for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.
    Devon Reese (D)     Heidi Gansert (R)      David Colborne (Lib.)     

    State Senate District 18

    A Democratic candidate challenged the GOP incumbent.
    Alexander Marks (D)     Scott Hammond(Inc.) (R)      

    2016 election competitiveness

    Nevada saw more incumbents facing primary opponents.

    Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Nevada performed in the study are provided in the image below.Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »

    CA 2016 Nevada.png
    • In theNevada State Senate, there were 10 Democratic incumbents and 11 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
    • In theAssembly, there were 17 Democratic incumbents, 24 Republican incumbents, and one Libertarian incumbent. Three state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
    • Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
    • The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.


    • More details on electoral competitiveness in Nevada can be foundbelow.

    List of candidates

    General election

    2016 Nevada Senate general election candidates
    DistrictDemocratic Party DemocratRepublican Party RepublicanOther
    1Patricia Spearman: 33,688(I)ApprovedaArsen Ter-Petrosyan: 17,800
    3Richard "Tick" Segerblom: 21,195(I)ApprovedaDennis Palmerston: 11,057Jonathan Friedrich: 2,889 (L)
    4Kelvin Atkinson: 29,912(I)Approveda
    5Joyce Woodhouse: 26,208(I)ApprovedaCarrie Buck: 25,739Tim Hagan: 2,784 (L)
    6Nicole Cannizzaro: 28,733ApprovedaVictoria Seaman: 27,697
    7David Parks: 28,431(I)ApprovedaKimberly Schjang: 12,454 (L)
    11Aaron Ford: 22,439(I)ApprovedaJon Frazier: 14,221Lesley Chan: 2,229 (L)
    13Julia Ratti: 27,280(I)ApprovedaKent Bailey: 15,811Brandon Jacobs: 2,406 (L)
    15Devon Reese: 26,773Heidi Gansert: 33,822ApprovedaDavid Colborne: 3,266 (L)
    18Alexander Marks: 26,864Scott Hammond: 34,805(I)Approveda
    19Peter Goicoechea: 36,877(I)ApprovedaJanine Hansen: 13,664 (Independent American)
     
    Notes:
    • An(I) denotes an incumbent.
    • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email ourState Legislature Project.

    Primary election

    2016 Nevada Senate primary candidates
    DistrictDemocratic Party DemocratRepublican Party RepublicanOther
    1Patricia Spearman(I)ApprovedaArsen Ter-PetrosyanApproveda
    3Richard "Tick" Segerblom(I)ApprovedaDennis PalmerstonApprovedaJonathan Friedrich (L)Approveda
    4Kelvin Atkinson(I): 3,926Approveda
    Stephen Harvey Munford: 1,966
    5Joyce Woodhouse(I): 4,145Approveda
    Nicholas Lash: 704
    Carrie BuckApprovedaTim Hagan (L)Approveda
    6Nicole CannizzaroApprovedaErv Nelson: 2,308
    Victoria Seaman: 3,894Approveda
    7David Parks(I): 3,222Approveda
    Anthony Wernicke: 950
    Kimberly Schjang (L)Approveda
    11Aaron Ford(I)ApprovedaJon FrazierApprovedaLesley Chan (L)Approveda
    13[14]Julia RattiApprovedaKent Bailey: 2,499Approveda
    Samantha Brockelsby: 1,074
    Brandon Jacobs (L)Approveda
    15Devon ReeseApprovedaHeidi Gansert: 5,105Approveda
    Eugene Hoover: 3,866
    David Colborne (L)Approveda
    18Alexander MarksApprovedaScott Hammond(I)Approveda
    19Peter Goicoechea(I)ApprovedaJanine Hansen (Independent American)Approveda
     
    Notes:
    • An(I) denotes an incumbent.
    • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email ourState Legislature Project.

    Margins of victory

    The average margin of victory for contested races in the Nevada State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 11 races in the Nevada State Senate in 2016, 10 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 21.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[15]

    Republican candidates in the Nevada State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won three races. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.3 percent. Democrats won eight races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 21.1 percent.
    More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Two of the 10 contested races in 2016—20 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Democrats won both races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less.
    Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent
    DistrictWinning PartyMargin of Victory
    District 5D0.9 percent
    District 6D1.8 percent
    The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Nevada State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Nine incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the eight winning Nevada State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 25.6 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent.
    Republican incumbents in the Nevada State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Two Republican incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.4 percent. Seven Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.3 percent.
    Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis
    PartyElections wonAverage margin of victory[16]Races with incumbent victoriesAverage margin of victory for incumbents[16]Unopposed incumbentsUnopposed racesPercent unopposed
    Democratic821.1 percent724.3 percent1112.5 percent
    Republican323.3 percent229.4 percent000.0 percent
    Total1121.8 percent925.6 percent119.1 percent

    Click[show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Nevada State Senate districts in 2016.

    Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District
    DistrictWinning PartyMargin of Victory
    District 1D30.9 percent
    District 3D28.9 percent
    District 4DUnopposed
    District 5D0.9 percent
    District 6D1.8 percent
    District 7D39.1 percent
    District 11D21.1 percent
    District 13D25.2 percent
    District 15R11.0 percent
    District 18R12.9 percent
    District 19R45.9 percent

    Important dates and deadlines

    See also:Nevada elections, 2016

    The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Nevada in 2016.

    Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016
    DeadlineEvent typeEvent description
    January 4, 2016Ballot accessJudicial candidate filing period opens
    January 15, 2016Ballot accessJudicial candidate filing period closes
    March 7, 2016Ballot accessCandidate filing period opens
    March 18, 2016Ballot accessCandidate filing period closes
    March 28, 2016Campaign financeCandidate financial disclosure statement due
    May 24, 2016Campaign financeContributions and expenses report #1 due
    June 10, 2016Campaign financeContributions and expenses report #2 due
    June 14, 2016Election datePrimary election
    October 18, 2016Campaign financeContributions and expenses report #3 due
    November 4, 2016Campaign financeContributions and expenses report #4 due
    November 8, 2016Election dateGeneral election
    January 15, 2017Campaign financeAnnual contributions and expenses report due; Contributions and expenses report #5 due; annual financial disclosure statement due
    Source:Nevada Secretary of State, "Important 2016 Candidate Dates," accessed July 17, 2015

    Competitiveness

    Candidates unopposed by a major party

    In three (27.27 percent) of the 11 seats up for election, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and one Republican were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

    Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 8 (72.7 percent) of the 11 seats up for election.

    Primary challenges

    A total of three incumbents faced primary competition on June 14. One incumbent did not seek re-election, two seats were vacant, and another five incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.

    Retired incumbents

    One incumbent senator,Mark Lipparelli (R) of District 6, did not run for re-election, and eight other incumbents ran for re-election. Two members were appointed to the chamber on September 27, 2016, to fill two vacancies.

    Impact of term limits

    See also:State legislatures with term limits

    Nevada voters approvedQuestion 9A in 1996. Question 9A was a second vote on aterm limits amendment first approved in 1994. Alone among the states withballot initiatives, Nevada voters must approve a proposed constitutional amendment twice before it goes into theNevada Constitution. The 1994 and 1996 votes cumulatively led toParagraph 2 of Section 4 of Article 4 of theNevada Constitution, which says, "No person may be elected or appointed as a Senator who has served in that Office, or at the expiration of his current term if he is so serving will have served, 12 years or more, from any district of this State."

    Altogether, there are 21Nevada State Senators. In the 2016 state senate elections, there were no senators who were termed out.

    Results from 2014

    See also:2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

    There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia'sCompetitiveness Index—the number ofopen seats,incumbents facing primary opposition, andgeneral elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than inrecent years.

    Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.

    Overall Competitiveness
    201020122014
    Competitiveness Index36.235.831.4
    % Open Seats18.6%21.2%17.0%
    % Incumbent with primary challenge22.7%24.6%20.1%
    % Candidates with major party opposition67.3%61.7%57.0%

    The following table details Nevada's rates foropen seats, incumbents that facedprimary challenges, andmajor party competition in the 2014 general election.

    Nevada Legislature 2014 Competitiveness
    % Open Seats% Incumbent with primary challenge% Candidates with major party oppositionCompetitiveness IndexOverall rank
    18.9%30.2%64.2%37.813

    Historical context

    See also:Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

    Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

    F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

    Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

    Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia'scompetitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

    Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

    Campaign contributions

    The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Nevada in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[17]

    Nevada State Senate Donations
    YearCandidatesAmount
    201433$7,066,607
    201236$6,153,115
    201044$4,367,615
    200832$4,817,421
    200623$4,801,522

    State comparison

    The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Nevada, at $214,140 per candidate, is ranked ten of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[17][18]

    Qualifications

    To be eligible to serve in the Nevada State Senate, a candidate must be:[19]

    • A U.S. citizen;
    • At least 21 years old by the filing deadline;
    • A one-year resident of Nevada before the election;
    • A resident for at least 30 days of the electing Senate district at the filing deadline time; and
    • A qualified voter. A qualified voter is someone who is:
      • A U.S. citizen;
      • A resident of Nevada for at least 6 months prior to the next election;
      • A resident in the district or county for at least 30 days; and
      • At least 18 years old by the next election.

    See also

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. Las Vegas Sun, "State Sen. Patricia Farley to caucus with Democrats," November 14, 2016
    2. kunr.org, "Sparks Councilwoman Will Run For Debbie Smith's Vacant Seat," accessed March 18, 2016
    3. Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
    4. Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc
    5. Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
    6. Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
    7. Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
    8. Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Democrats," accessed September 12, 2016
    9. Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Republicans," accessed September 12, 2016
    10. Las Vegas Sun, "Fight for majority in Nevada Legislature coming into focus," accessed September 12, 2016
    11. Governing, "The 8 States to Watch in 2016," accessed January 16, 2016
    12. Nevada Appeal, "Democrats rev up fundraising in fight to control Nevada Legislature," January 21, 2016
    13. 13.013.1Las Vegas Review Journal, "Democrats could retake Nevada Senate, Assembly this year," accessed September 12, 2016
    14. Cite error: Invalid<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs namedd13
    15. This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
    16. 16.016.1Excludes unopposed elections
    17. 17.017.1followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Nevada," accessed July 28, 2015
    18. This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
    19. Nevada Secretary of State, "Election Information Guide 2013-2014," accessed March 6, 2014


    Current members of theNevada State Senate
    Leadership
    Majority Leader:Nicole Cannizzaro
    Minority Leader:Robin Titus
    Senators
    District 1
    District 2
    District 3
    District 4
    District 5
    District 6
    District 7
    District 8
    District 9
    District 10
    District 11
    District 12
    District 13
    District 14
    District 15
    District 16
    District 17
    District 18
    District 19
    District 20
    District 21
    Democratic Party (13)
    Republican Party (8)


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